Bok ranking under threat
22 Jun 2006
If France beat the Springboks on Saturday they will move into second place on the IRB World Rankings.
Jake White’s side has 88.76 points, with the French just behind them on 85.95.
According to Pick and Go’s statistics, if the Six Nations champions win the match by between 1 and 15 points they will earn 1.581 points, with the Boks losing the same number. That would see South Africa slip to third on the rankings.
If France win by more than 15 points they will pick up 2.372 points, with the Boks losing the same number.
Ireland also have a great chance to go past Australia and move up to No 4 in the rankings.
If the Irish win by 1 to 15 points they will earn 1.512 points (and the Wallabies losing the same number). If they win by more than 15 they’ll get 2.268 points (and the Wallabies losing the same number).
World Rankings:
1. New Zealand 93.32
2. South Africa 88.76
3. France 85.95
4. Australia 84.86
5. Ireland 82.74
6. England 79.66
7. Scotland 77.72
8. Argentina 77.49
9. Wales 76.34
10. Samoa 74.34
11. Italy 72.11
12. Fiji 71.84
13. Canada 68.16
14. USA 67.50
15. Romania 67.31
16. Tonga 66.51
17. Georgia 65.56
18. Uruguay 65.15
19. Russia 64.54
20. Japan 63.42
27 Comments
22 Jun 2006, 20:31 pm
the dragons are not meant to know about the rating
22 Jun 2006, 21:14 pm
But luckily for we’ll play a great game because the media and most of our negative public wrote the Boks off and therefor they are under great pressure. And we all know what happens when the Boks get written off…
22 Jun 2006, 21:14 pm
Is the non statistical version of this story that NZ are way out front with France, South Africa and Australia leading the pursuing pack?
Any wins amongst the second tier and their nearest rivals means somebody goes whoopsie?
To be number 1 you not only have to beat every near you but also wipe the AB’s out several times over.
22 Jun 2006, 21:14 pm
…luckily for us, it should read…
22 Jun 2006, 21:43 pm
Re: sarky, (comment #3)
That’s very interesting, because, according to the original post, if South Africa were to play New Zealand tomorrow, they could move to #1 in the rankings.
I quote:
“If France win by more than 15 points they will pick up 2.372 points, with the Boks losing the same number.”
So, if South Africa beat New Zealand by more than 15 points (and it’s not likely, but it’s possible), then:
1. South Africa (88.76+2.372) 91.132
2. New Zealand (93.32-2.372) 90.948
Just a little food for thought. Check the figures next time.
22 Jun 2006, 21:58 pm
What happens if we beat the Frogs by more than 15 and the All Blacks get smacked by the Argies by 1-15 points, thats what I want to know. (Unlikely but possible)
Entertaining a loss against the French and worrying about slipping a place should not even be considered. Lets get positive here and aim for #1!!!
22 Jun 2006, 22:03 pm
you been drinking blokkies
22 Jun 2006, 22:07 pm
I for 1 won’t mind if we lose this Sat.
This home record is weighing us down like a stone around our neck. We are too focused on keeping the record & not making progress.
I think we need to focus on what’s important, as soon as you focus on the records & not the game – tickets!
22 Jun 2006, 22:29 pm
The Bill
Youre clearly an Idiot!
The Boks must have a 100% win record at home, otherwise we dont even have a chance to be the NO.1 side in the World.
The away record must go up to aleast 85-90%
22 Jun 2006, 22:36 pm
I see where you are coming from The Bill but that is exactly the attitude we need to get rid of in SA. The pessimism and negative comments that come out even before the Boks have run onto the field. It’s normally so bad that no matter what the boys eventually produce on the day, people have had enough time to think of excuses both ways !!
We are No. 2 in the World, our U21′s have just klapped the AB’s by 20 points (imagine them in 4 years with a Black Captain), we are undeaten at home, we are winning man. Lets get behind the o’s and start dominating again.
Who says we can’t we win and play great rugby on sat !! Come on the Boks !!
22 Jun 2006, 23:07 pm
If NZ lose by more than 15, they will end up on 90.32 points.
and if SA wins by 15 or more, we will end up on 89.39
So no, we will still be second.
22 Jun 2006, 23:35 pm
The rankings are massaged to make the rest of the world look good – lies, damned lies and stastics. New Zealand is No 1 by a long way. has been for some years and there is no rugby country in the world that looks remotely like to be overtaking it. GThat is not to say they are invincable. The only thing that gives the rest some hope is the the Kiwis have been unable to win the World Cup. A much as I was born a Springbok and aways will be support the Boks I just cannnot see them beating the All Blacks except perhaps for a lucky “scrapein” at home Hamba Kahle.
22 Jun 2006, 23:45 pm
These rankings suck anyway. It is like trying to rank Pamela Anderson above Bo Derek but below Charlize Theron with Anna Kournikova the wildcard. You come up with scheme to do that
23 Jun 2006, 00:12 am
Re: Pissant (#11)
What the hell? I just showed you that, according to the original post’s calculations, a +15 point win by South Africa and a +15 point loss by New Zealand means we flip flop positions.
If there are alternate calculations involved, please advise.
23 Jun 2006, 04:22 am
And the perfect time For SA to increase the ranking would be in July when they visit Wellington. Arguably the least imposing NZ city to play in. So, I’ll be there, who else?
23 Jun 2006, 05:18 am
I’ll be there, and if I’ve got anything to do with it, it will be VERY IMPOSING!!
23 Jun 2006, 07:20 am
But I agree Ponoke,
IMHO the only time another team should be able to overtake the #1 ranked team should be when they beat them – so bring on Wellington.
Rankings are normally a farce, for crying out loud, the USA (!!!???) are ranked #6 in the world of football and they suck!
23 Jun 2006, 07:21 am
So if we beat the Frogs and beat NZ in all three encounters with them this year. we should be on top?
23 Jun 2006, 07:23 am
If I beat my wife, would I be ranked higher than Robert Mugabe as greatest men in the world?
23 Jun 2006, 07:37 am
The baby boks for the World cup title.
Australia in the next round after beating croatia who are 4th in the world rankings.
Bring on italy!
23 Jun 2006, 08:11 am
Well even if the French beat SA by some margin and thus are ranked second, this will be temporary. Keep in mind that after this week-end the NH teams will be off until November tours while the 3N will fill this gap for SANZAR. So if SA reproduces last year performance they will get back to second position in this ranking.
23 Jun 2006, 08:52 am
“the USA (!!!???) are ranked #6 in the world of football and they suck!”
Yes, but FIFA has a very stupid way of calculating the rankings, whereas the IRB does not.
If the Boks ever make #1, then no doubt the rankings will be perfectly fine.
23 Jun 2006, 08:55 am
Bloemleeu post #9, we don’t have a 100% winning record, we drew with the frogs last year!!!
23 Jun 2006, 09:08 am
kak artcile, who gives ****!
Boke just play decent rugby for god sakes!
23 Jun 2006, 10:02 am
Twojays? expalin then how in the last two years we have convincingly beaten them at home and been within 2 minutes of beating them in NZ?
23 Jun 2006, 12:08 pm
Marauding3 (14), each match that is played has different calculations. So the rankingpoint difference will not be the same for NZ/Argentina and SA/FR.
The points difference between NZ & Arg will be 12.83 (93.32 – (77.49+3)). The home side gets 3 points added to their total to make up for home advantage. For any difference of 10 & more the underdogs will gain 2 points if winning, but if they lose they won’t lose any points either. If the score difference is more than 15, the rankingpoints that is earned gets multiplied by 1.5. So if Argentina should win against NZ, they get 2 points, and if they can win with more than 15, they get 3 points (2 x 1.5), while NZ will lose 3 points, 93.32 – 3 = 90.32.
The points difference between SA & Fr will be 5.81 ((88.76+3) – 85.95). According to the scales that is used, SA will gain 0.42 if they win, and Fr will gain 1.58 if they win. Note that 0.42 + 1.58 = 2. Should SA win by more than 15 points, the 0.42 gets multiplied by 1.5, thus 0.63. 88.76 + 0.63 = 89.39.
23 Jun 2006, 13:37 pm
Blokkies,(post6).
Ab’s have a lot of trouble beating Argentina in Argentina.And this AB team is not as strong as the one which beat Ireland.
So you never know.
P.S. I’m picking the Ozzies to go down.
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