Everybody wants to be the underdog
5 Jul 2006
New Zealand are claiming the Wallabies to be favourites ahead of Saturday’s Vodacom Tri Nations opener. The visitors think it is ridiculous that they arrive in New Zealand expected to win.
All Blacks coach Graham Henry was forced to admit, though, that with 18 tests wins in succession at home his team would start as the favourite.
“We’ve got no complaints about the weekend. We don’t want the underdog tag, we’ll go out and play as best we can,” Henry told the media. “We haven’t played well in the last three games but we’ve played with some character and some backbone and you can’t buy that. We’re trying to develop as this Tri-Nations goes on.”
Then he added: “We want to peak at the right time. We’re probably under-done for the weekend, which is understandable.”
Ah, all of which suggests he feels they may be the underdog, even if the bookies won’t buy into that.
All week it has been a battle for the underdog status, despite Henry’s latest acceptance of the All Blacks being the favourites. In the build-up Wallabies coach John Connolly has described the All Blacks as the best team in the world. Henry has called the Wallabies the form team in the world. Scott Johnson says the All Blacks strength (depth in numbers) could also be their weakness. The Wallabies assistant coach believes they don’t know who their best team is and that he says is a weakness. Steve Hansen says Australia has the edge over the All Blacks in the lineout, but believes his team has the edge over the Aussies in the scrums.
Both teams claim to have the best flyhalf in the world.
Connolly claims to have spies in the New Zealand squad. Henry dismissed that as a barb aimed at getting a reaction.
The All Blacks team was leaked from within the squad, something which annoyed Henry. The All Blacks coach gave his team a tongue-lashing last Thursday about complacency and confirmed a few truths were spoken when the squad assembled. Henry said the team had not lost in a year and that was a dangerous thing because young players easily started believing their own press and the hype. He reminded them they were only as good as their last outing, which was not very good.
The Wallabies take a settled team into the tournament opener, while the All Blacks starting XV has never played a game together in that formation.
It has made for a fascinating week in Christchurch and it should be a fascinating Saturday at Jade Stadium.
Last year the All Blacks hammered the Wallabies three times, although they leaked four tries in the 34-24 Tri Nations clincher in Auckland. They also gave up a 20 point advantage in conceding 19 unanswered points. The Wallabies, with the more intelligent backline and greater midfield skill, will feel they can mix it with the All Blacks. And the feeling you get from the noises coming from New Zealand is the Kiwis know it.
There is not the confidence coming from the All Blacks that you expect from a team that has gone 18 matches without defeat. You also get the feeling it would come as some sort of relief to their coaching staff to drop one game and get the unbeaten monkey off their back. Bizarre that really. Teams play to get on a winning roll. And when they do they can’t wait to lose one?
The Crusaders have made it almost impossible for touring teams to win in Christchurch. There are doubts in New Zealand, the All Blacks can continue that dominance on Saturday.
That’s the beauty of rugby. The rubble of six months ago are the red hot favourites. And the Invincibles of the Grand Slam are suddenly very vulnerable. How much more will change in the next 15 months before the World Cup? That’s why it is ludicrous to start calling anyone favourites to win the World Cup when there’s still two Tri Nations, one Six Nations, end of year tours, European Cup and Super 14 rugby to be played.
47 Comments
5 Jul 2006, 00:13 am
AZZURRI!!!
5 Jul 2006, 00:16 am
I would say both the coaches comments are accurate:
NZ is ranked #1 (by a fair margin) so they are the best team in the world
Aus in their last 3 games have shown better form than the AB’s so yes both statements are correct and don’t contradict each other…
BRING ON SATURDAY
It’s gonna be a very wet cold game, with a antarctic front moving up the South Island so those set pieces, rucks and mauls are gonna be the deciding factor, much as I’d love to see those 2 class backlines go at each other
5 Jul 2006, 01:30 am
The biggest problem for the Blacks will be that it is their 1st game together. If they gel it will be not only cold but very hard for the Wobblies.
If they are rusty the Wobblies may well surprise but I will put the house on the Blacks…
5 Jul 2006, 01:31 am
Hey Ikeys, where are you, bietjie gatvol vir jou…
5 Jul 2006, 01:35 am
carter is the only difference seperating all 3 trinations teams
5 Jul 2006, 01:39 am
xsaffa, Bernie is as much a match winner as Carter. Besides, the game is played by 15/22 guys a side and not one.
5 Jul 2006, 01:50 am
I cannot wait for the start of the Tri Nations I believe if the weather is going to be wet and cold then it could be anyones game but it will be close probably a four point margin separating the two.Go the All Blacks and bring it on the Wallabies and the Boks…
5 Jul 2006, 02:55 am
Wet and raining in Christchurch eh ricane. Wot a surprise, not … night football should not be played in the South Island of NZ. NZ to win this one, a true learning experience for our forwards. Hope they don’t get beaten too bad and bring on the Brisbane game.
But as to the main point of the thread … yes its great that all 3 nations can look forward with confidence.
5 Jul 2006, 03:19 am
I don’t want to sound like the weather man, but I
just had a look at the TVNZ website (after reading ricane’s weather forecast) and they have said that Saturday in CHCH is going to be FINE (yes, that means sun) with light winds, with a high of 12c and low of 1c.
In other words, this is about is good as it gets in CHCH in the middle of winter!!!
If these conditions hold true, there will probably be a frost, which will make the ball a little slippery, but this is certainly nothing to moan about (considering what it can be).
As they are use to frosty-type conditions in CHCH, they use some type of spray on the ground that is meant to counteract the impact of the moisture.
Let’s hope these forecasted conditions hold true, as these should provide the context for a great game!
5 Jul 2006, 04:59 am
While the Aussie and Kiwi coaches are busy blowing each other (with compliments ofcourse) I think we all know who the real underdogs are. If Rocky 23 had a story line, it would involve his coach being fcked around, all his best limbs being injured, and all of his fans hopeless and despondent. How will it work out in the end?
5 Jul 2006, 05:30 am
Post 2 the other day you were screaming All Blacks now it’s a maybe maybe.
5 Jul 2006, 05:33 am
The Wobblies tag is gone they will show no mercy come game time. Ozzie ozie ozie Oi Oi Oi.
5 Jul 2006, 05:35 am
Yeah they have only lost once last year and I wonder who that was too. He he he.
5 Jul 2006, 05:37 am
He ha I’ve got this thread all to my self he ha.
5 Jul 2006, 05:38 am
Koos die doos man that sounds good where are the.
5 Jul 2006, 05:51 am
Hey Pomp, went out for lunch, back now…
You had a good nibble last night but it got away!
5 Jul 2006, 05:53 am
How you doing bud?
5 Jul 2006, 05:56 am
What you think of those i tie’s beating the frit’s?
5 Jul 2006, 06:07 am
had my money on the frit’s! Suppose tomorrow it will be the cafe owners in an upset…
5 Jul 2006, 06:11 am
Got a mate from Zim in the office, ardent i tie’s supporter. Told me yesterday they will win the semi and the final is also theirs, had a good laugh and said hope will watch the frits v frogs final!
Ah well, allowed to be wrong sometimes.
5 Jul 2006, 06:18 am
Go da cabbages sounds good. Hmm Zim boy where from bullies or Salisbury?
5 Jul 2006, 06:23 am
Not sure pomp, think Salisbury, will ask but he is new age, probably does not know were Salisbury is…
5 Jul 2006, 06:27 am
Never one to sit on the fence, and not about to start, AB’s for me to win, whether by 1 or 10, its still a victory, ugly or not. Both teams have 3 wins, thats all I have to say, Bring on the weekend.
5 Jul 2006, 06:28 am
Oh F@#k new age did he apply for political refugee status he he.
5 Jul 2006, 06:30 am
Yeah me thinks Ab’s to pip the ozzies, hell they have to they are playing at home.
5 Jul 2006, 06:35 am
Hehehe no, but I do know about a few that did, more the lighter skin types though, got special visas to let them in…
CSI, 1 or 10 hey, nothing in between!
5 Jul 2006, 06:39 am
Oh yes that was with the farm saga’s, yip there was some sort of amnesty thing that was aloud between certain dates.
5 Jul 2006, 06:44 am
They got a visa for 2 years after which they had to show/proof that they started a succesful business in Oz, not sure if there were any other perks.
Met one guy that called me buurman! He actually went back to SA/Zim on a contract basis to help out with some Hollywood movie…as an interpreter! Got paid mega bucks, tax free and in US$
5 Jul 2006, 07:17 am
yeah they are making a lot of movies in Africa it is much cheaper with the exchange rate.
5 Jul 2006, 08:33 am
Whilst Oz and the AB’s scrap about who the best/worst is, we’ll just grab the trophy!
5 Jul 2006, 08:34 am
The Aussies are going to win the 3N this year
5 Jul 2006, 09:01 am
It will be interesting to see whether support for the revamped competition is sustained as the event unfolds.
While this year looks to be a pretty even affair prior to the first match, what will happen if one team gets on a losing streak.
Watching one’s team get dealt to over six tests would be horrendous. Visions of empty stadia spring to mind.
5 Jul 2006, 09:03 am
And lots of tissues.
5 Jul 2006, 09:05 am
I think you are right Brads. This isn’t one of those competitions with a minnow who knows from the start that they are likely to take a pasting.
5 Jul 2006, 10:22 am
ChiefsFan
Agreed. Rugby is not like soccer, because it is a rare rare day when a boil over occurs. Where as a boil over in soccer can be a nil all draw
This is not the situation in rugby, which is a good reason why a PI team or the Puma’s were not invited to participate in the 3N or S14
Neither outfits could produce a worthy team in our playing season that included all their best players. And they need their best players just to compete, never mind actually win.
Any notion that getting dorked by 50+ points week in week out will promote the game is gambling at best.
5 Jul 2006, 11:33 am
Unfortunately, the BOKS are going to get the Wooden spoon this year!
5 Jul 2006, 11:50 am
crud, the ABs are clear favourites.
5 Jul 2006, 11:51 am
Tisme? why do you say that?
we won it in 2004, we should have won it in 2005? as we did better than 2004? give the team some credit, what will it take for the Boks to get the supporters believeing in them? i guess a different media
5 Jul 2006, 12:16 pm
am with you wls! I think the aussies can do us a favour if they beat the kiwis this weekend (which i doubt tho). I am sure that we will beat the aussies in SA & at least once in oz, so every homegame lost by NZ could be a blessing for us in the long run!
5 Jul 2006, 12:22 pm
wls,
“we should have won it in 2005″…could or should? If you are saying should, it implies that SA were the best team on show and were robbed of the trophy somehow. Could implies you were capable of winning but came up short. I think “could have won” is a much better description of the Boks Tri Nations games thus far.
As for why Tisme is saying the Boks are going to collect the wooden spoon, i’ll hazard a guess that he is basing it on pre-season form. The Ozzies seem to have improved (we’ll find out how much on Saturday) and the ABs look competent if a little rusty at the moment. The Boks have big injury concerns and an alarming lack of depth. Sa have a number of rookies in the touring squad with little or no test match experience which also shows JW is panicking slightly. JW should have blooded them against inferior opposition like Scotland.
Oz and SA appear to have one gameplan that each are able to execute very well. SA have a big forward pack that they will use to gain territory and possession and squeeze the life out of the opposition. With Monty to kick the goals and several tries forced through pressure defence (note not just interce[ts but turnovers too), that is how it appears that the Boks will look to play the game. Their offensive play is not very well structured IMO. Maybe they’ll surprise us.
Oz are the opposite. They will look to their pack to provide parity upfront and to get some front foot ball. They will look to their lineout like SA to snare extra ball too. With parity or front foot ball, their backs have shown themselves to be the most lethal backline division in the world. Maybe they too will surprise us with a good showing from the fatties up front.
NZ have the mix of both. They have a strong forward pack with a good tight five that allows their loosies to play the game on the front foot more often than not. They will look to dominate Oz up front in the scrums, rucks and mauls and hope their lineout functions. If the weather is poor on Saturday I believe the ABs have the players to keep it tight and grind the Wallabies down too. NZ have a #10 who can direct play well, distribute well and clear their lines with large punts up field. They have clever operators in the backline who can use turnover ball to produce tries. Their backline isn’t as slick as Oz’s, but it is probably the quickest in the world (apart from maybe Fiji).
All in all, NZ appear to have the more balanced side with a powerful pack and a good backline. SA may well win more ball than them on the day, but SA’s backline hasn’t shown itself capable of using that ball. And if Oz don’t get the ball at all due to their pack not obtaining possession, they will struggle too.
On paper and taking the last 12 months performances into consideration, that’s how I see it. On current form, I think NZ will sneak this years competition from Oz, with SA third. Why, because SA have to play Oz twice in Oz and NZ twice in SA. If it were Oz that were playing twice in SA, i’d have SA second and competing for the title. That’ll be next year.
5 Jul 2006, 12:29 pm
HangkasHarry,
You think you’ll beat Oz in Oz at least once? Last year you played an Oz team that was in the middle of it’s worst series of results for a very long time, and yet only squeaked it with a late Habana turnover special. SA didn’t look like breaking the line much in that game if my memory serves me right.
The Boks have gone backwards and your first choice team isn’t available. Burger will be missed, Bakkies may not be fully fit, Matfield will probably go MIA again, Burger is a huge loss, your scrum halves are playing poorly (and one looks unfit), you have no #10 of sufficient quality, JdV is overrated but may well prove me wrong (if he does and shows the talent that many on here have said he possesses, he and Fourie will make a very creative and potent midfield), Monty can kick but is looking his age, and apart from Habana your wings look poor in quality. Add to this your lack of impact from the subs bench and in my mind, the Boks have regressed.
But I’m man enough to admit that they may prove the doubters wrong and win away. If they do, i’ll be the first to congratulate them and say I was wrong to doubt them. So far on the evidence I’ve seen I just can’t see them performing away from home.
5 Jul 2006, 12:47 pm
stodders
You are bang on with everything you say.
What will be interesting is whether the respective coaches can adapt to counter the defeats from recurring.
My thinking is Knuckles is the least one under pressure. He must be loving this!
5 Jul 2006, 13:44 pm
Knuckles is under no pressure Brads, but has the biggest headache tactically.
The Brumbies’ game plan is obviously past its use-by date. Jones showed that pretty conclusively.
The Warratahs’ game plan is better, but the crucial playmakers are Brumbies, not ‘Tahs. That plan has also shown itself to be more than a bit suspect against the Crusaders’s game.
Did Queensland have a gameplan?
Bit of a problem there, what?
So Knuckles has to come up with some way of countering the ABs which is not what any of his players are used to playing. Not an ideal situation really. At least Henry and White can work on an established basis of the best team in their respective Super14 campaigns.
5 Jul 2006, 13:45 pm
Which in Henry’s case is clearly the outstanding Chiefs gameplan.
I only wish I knew what that was!
5 Jul 2006, 15:14 pm
Chiefsfan,
The Waratahs gameplan is not dissimilar to the Springbok gameplan. Play for territory and compete at the lineout, pressing suffocating defence, press the opposition and force them to make decisions in limited time, forcing mistakes, interceptions and turnovers. The difference between the Waratahs and Boks is that the Waratahs have a backline that is creative and penetrative
(Sorry Springbok fans, I couldn’t resist)
Like you said in post #43, the Waratahs gameplan has shown itself to be fallible when playing against the Crusaders and this year the Hurricanes. In the Crusaders game they were forced to make the play to win the game and came up short because of smart play and dogged defence. In the Hurricanes game they were harrassed and thrown off their gameplan slightly. Their lineout maul didn’t work and no gaps appeared in the defensive lines of either of the Kiwi teams. The Waratahs ended up trying to work backline moves that were too complicated and thus turned the ball over. They also suffered at scrum time more often than not, even though they are more than competitive with most S14 teams.
If Oz play solely the Waratahs way I think they’ll fall short. If they play the Brumbies phase way, they’ll fall short. They need to combine both systems and utilise them at the right time. It’s a big ask, but they certainly have the strike runners to hurt the opposition from 1st and 2nd phase ball, and they have the players to keep the ball to tire out the ABs.
I fully expect them to kick for touch and play the territory game and compete on the ABs ball at lineout time as they have a potent lineout operator in Vickerman. They’ll be looking to play the game in NZ territory as they’ll back their defensive system to keep the ABs out from long range. Again, this is a big ask as I can see the ABs wanting to lay down a marker to Oz with their forward play and settling this game up front. If they allow the ABs to get organised in defence and begin their offensive defensive system I think they’ll be in for a long night.
It’s going to be titanic!
5 Jul 2006, 15:38 pm
Well, that’s almost exactly as I see it Stodders.
ABs to start slow, trying to keep the errors out and not give away easy points. After about 30 minutes, when the green Aussie front row think “hey, this isn’t so bad after all”, expect the pace to pick up.
ABs to crash the ball up a lot between Larkham and Rogers (both forwards and backs).
6 Jul 2006, 03:01 am
Very good analysis by Stodders, and as I have said previously, can’t see Aus winning in Christchurch. But for the longterm gameplan I’m optimistic Aus are on the right track under Knuckles and Johnston – the Brumbies approach has had its time, and the Tahs has its limitations. Knuckles will have them playing the Qld way (which I would emphasise is the 80′s and 90′ version, not the kak we have had in the last 5 years) which relies on big forwards getting position, kicking halves, a ball playing inside centre and big fast outside backs. The difference on Saturday will be 1) in the front row where our young fellas are in for a tough examination and 2) turnovers – Aus will have too many.
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