The fine-tuning begins
11 Jun 2007
The six Tri-Nations matches will be crucial to the three teams respective bids to win the World Cup in France.
Five days remain before the twelfth installment of this competition, and history would suggest the winning of this tournament in a World Cup year has little bearing on success at the global event. The All Blacks won the Tri-Nations in 1999 and in 2003, but bombed in the semi-finals of the World Cups in Wales and Australia. The Wallabies finished second at both of these Sanzar tournaments, but went on to make the final of both World Cups, winning against France in 1999 and losing narrowly to an extra-time Jonny Wliklinson drop-goal in 2003.
Success in the Tr-Nations is not important, at least not on the scoreboard. It would be a great boost for any of the three teams to take the momentum provided by a title-win to France, but as the New Zealanders have shown in their failures, peaking at the right time is all-important. The right formula lies in taking a form squad to front the world’s best, and ensuring 30 players are ready before the first match on 9 September taxing into account variables of injury and fatigue.
The South Africans scored a huge mental victory in winning their first Super Rugby championship when the Bulls beat the Sharks in May. Throughout the competition, they showed they could match the Australasians’ best, and put to bed the belief they are soft targets on the road.
The performance of many of the Springboks in this competition was encouraging. However, the momentum gained by a few of the players will have been stifled due to injury, with several Boks in the dock since the culmination of the Super 14. Fourie du Preez and Andre Pretorius are yet to play for South Africa this year, while Os du Randt has only had one match and Jaque Fourie came off the bench in the second half against Samoa. These players are all certainties to feature in France, and so need as much exposure as possible in the upcoming Tri-Nations.
These next two matches in Cape Town and Durban will be especially important, as these are the fixtrues where White is likely to field many of his first-choice combinations. Fourie and Jean de Villiers have been touted as the centre-pairing to win South Africa the World Cup, but may go to the competition having played as few as two matches together in 2007 against quality opposition.
Du Preez may only return for the away leg of the Tri-Nations, where likely halfback partner for the big games in France, Butch James is due to be rested. Andre Pretorius did not get a full Super 14, and is in desperate need of a run after falling foul to injury yet again after the Super 14.
Down Under, John Connolly and Graham Henry will realise their jobs are far from done in preparing for the World Cup. Injuries in the Super 14 and in the recent Test series against France would have set the All Blacks back. Lock Keith Robinson was ruled out ahead of the match in Wellington where fellow second-rower Ali Williams suffered a broken jaw after enduring a savage shoulder barge by Sebastian Chabal. Jason Eaton has been ruled out of Test rugby for the year, while it is concerning how often flyhalf Dan Carter breaks down these days.
The All Blacks have had their problems in the line-out, and with the loss of four frontline locks, they will be susceptible in this area come the Tri-Nations. At flyhalf they have plenty of depth, with Nick Evans and Luke McAlister more than capable of filling the gap, but Henry should be keen to have Carter back marshalling the All Black back division sooner rather than later.
The Wallabies have finally abandoned the experiment ofMatt Giteau at scrumhalf and George Gregan and Stephen Larkham are reinstalled as the first-choice halfback combination. Connolly does not have the depth available to White and Henry, and will be looking to play his best team from here-on in, with momentum the Aussies’ strongest potential ally. The return of fullback Chris Latham will also be significant in the first Bledisloe Cup clash and will bring another dimension to an already potent backline. However, where the Wallabies may stumble is in the forward pack, and a couple of injuries to these players will sink from their World Cup campaign.
By Jon Cardinelli
21 Comments
11 Jun 2007, 06:26 am
# 1
11 Jun 2007, 06:29 am
You guys are slow…
Where is the article about Ruan Pienaar starting this weekend because slicky ricky is injured?
11 Jun 2007, 06:30 am
JC, a small reminder that New Zealand rested their top players in the Super 14. So it can’t really be said the South African sides could match the Australasians’ best. This was true against the Australian sides, but not those from New Zealand.
11 Jun 2007, 06:35 am
I’m not sure the current injuries to Dan Carter are serious. I think it is more a case of the AB’s taking extra precuations with him, as he undoubtdly is their backline king-pin for the World Cup.
11 Jun 2007, 06:52 am
Dan suffered a very minor ankle sprain. FAR less serious than Petoor’s torn butt-muscle from sitting in an aeroplane seat…
11 Jun 2007, 07:03 am
samglazer valid posts, I too think that we (NZ) sacrificed the S14 at the expense of the build up to the WC which is going to be costly plus interest if the AB’s bomb out. However I think the Boks are more than well poised to have their bite at the cherry as well. Your measuring stick will be the your first against the Wallabies whose woeful display( even though they were allegidly trying new things)against Fiji should be a toothsharpener. Obviously the determinate will be against NZ and the outcome of both matches never measuring by one. I think the major contenders will be SA, NZ, Ireland, France,OZ and possibly Argentenia. I cant see England getting past the quarters even though I havent seen their draw. I put SA and NZ on a reasonably equal stance at the top and could come down to who is hot on the day. I put OZ,Ireland and Argentenia all about level with France on the top of that pile, however all of them have more than the goods to pull it of. If Borat is the cheerleader for Kurdackistan we may see an even larger upset.
Finally I think the French are really up to something and I never forget the ‘Rainbow Warrior”…watch out for zee ambush.
11 Jun 2007, 07:10 am
France are rubbish.
11 Jun 2007, 07:12 am
Sorry, France IS rubbish. The French are rubbish.
11 Jun 2007, 07:16 am
hey tackler – who tore your butt muscle?
11 Jun 2007, 07:20 am
Yes Tackler I hear what you ‘is’ saying loud and clear. What they sent out was not a serious event and take my word for it being the hosts they will be up to something- probably got their real team in training with the Foreign Legion running over sand dunes and bayonetting pin ups of McCaw. I dont even think their test earlier in the year was a measuring stick of what their standards will be come WC time. I hope you are 100% right, but I know them quite well.
11 Jun 2007, 07:54 am
currently i see the favorites to win the world cup, in order, as follows:
1. NZ
2. France
3. SA
4. Aus
The rest dont matter, coz it will take a miracle for any other team to win the competition.
I can see one or more of England, Ireland, Wales, Argentina maybe surprising one of the top 4 and knocking them out. But to do it 3 weeks in a row from QF to final I just do not see happening.
11 Jun 2007, 08:15 am
Why hasn’t Pienaar even got a mention within the Boks when it comes to playing number 10, surely he would be devastating.
11 Jun 2007, 08:16 am
SCOOT WHY??? are you guesing , hoping or do you have proof
11 Jun 2007, 08:18 am
#10, what they sent out in November 2006 WAS their best #1 test side and, on the own home turf in Lyon and Paris, they got themselves horribly drilled by 40 points for two straight weekends in a row.
Their adventure to NZ just picked up where the EOYT All Blacks left off.
The French can’t play real rugby. They’re hopelessly over-rated.
11 Jun 2007, 08:19 am
Well we all know we have no depth at 10, and a lot of people have mentioned he would shine there. I’m only suggesting giving him a run there the same way Steyn plays all over the place.
11 Jun 2007, 08:33 am
scoot i hear you but its too late now , Jake had 4 years if he starts doing it now/again we have no hope.
For the same reason that i think Hougaart can be a succses i think Butch too, because they are EXPERIENCED FLYHALVES. Both are not flashy but solid, one more kicking skills the other more running skills.
Jake must settle now and give the team chance to play together, thats all we must do, the next 4 tests must be used for the combinations to settle, and we must accept it if a player looks bad in one game the trick is to reach cohesian by the time of the knockout stages in the WC
11 Jun 2007, 09:25 am
7. that is what we all thought last time the AB’s gave the Frogs an absolute hiding in Wellington (1999?)
Guess who kicked us out of the WC a couple of months later that year??
11 Jun 2007, 09:37 am
ricane you are right and I hope that Tackler is too–don’t underestimate the ‘wolf’ who can put on many guises. I have trained fighters to lull opponents into a false sense of security and many a twelve rounder has been won by giving some rounds away(unless your Ricky Hatton).
munkiboi alot of the pool games are a walk in the park for some and I think England play SA in one of theirs at St Denis. Cant see many probems for the top rated teams in their pools except I think Australia play Ireland which is always good stoush.
I do agree with Tackler from the point of view that if the French dont have an ace up their sleeve they may well not make the top four. I would like to see Ireland there and quite deservedly as well as they havent trailed by much in the last year or two.
11 Jun 2007, 10:50 am
Not taking anything away from the current Bok set-up, but wouldnt it be nice to see how a January at scrumhalve , Pienaar at Flyhalf and Butch James at centre with Jacque Fourie outside.? Smash the opposition early. Send it down to Habana, TRY TIME.
11 Jun 2007, 11:51 am
#19 That would be quite a combo, but too late to try it unless injuries really foul us up.
15 Jun 2007, 20:14 pm
Australia and South Africa may be about to pull a fast one on the All Blacks by pulling their top players out of the later rounds of the Tri-Nations.
This would rest key Wallabies and Springboks before the World Cup, and also deny the All Blacks decent opposition during their carefully planned build-up to the cup campaign.
This story has been reported in the NZ Herald this morning.
Considering this logic, the winning of the tri-nations is not so important in RWC year. As JC correctly points out, the AB’s won the tri-nations in 99 and 03, yet were unsuccessful in lifting the cup.
What does everyone else think? If this story has any credence, could this be a master stroke or a strategy in stupidity?
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