Stormers clutching at straws
5 Mar 2008
Rassie Erasmus’s statistical defence serves to confirm the Stormers’ shortcomings rather than suggest they’re making gradual progress.
Talking stats, there’s no getting round the two most prominent figures of the Stormers’ 2008 campaign. Forget the technical jabber. The Stormers have won nil from three, and from that three they’ve scored one try.
The bottom line is the Stormers have regressed. They were playing with less structure at this stage last year, but had managed a solitary win over the Chiefs. They had scored two tries after three games, but the writing was on the wall.
What’s changed in 2008?
Writing in his column for Die Burger, Erasmus presents a few stats intended to confirm the Stormers are on the right path. The Stormers had more possession than the Crusaders, but the bald truth is they struggled to score a single point. The Stormers had more opportunities to breach the defence, but they failed to cross the advantage line with any telling regularity.
Erasmus says the ball was in play for 36 minutes and 29 seconds. The Stormers had the ball for 18 minutes and 47 seconds while the Crusaders hung onto the pill for 17 minutes and 42 seconds. Erasmus concedes his side struggled to do much with this possession (quite obvious when looking at the scoreboard), but attributes the difference in scores to the Crusaders’ ability to cross the advantage line. The Crusaders attacked the Stormers 52 times and only once failed to gain ground. The Stormers ran at the Crusaders defence 60 times and only crossed the gain line on 39 occasions.
What Erasmus doesn’t admit is the foolish manner in which possession was squandered: flyhalf Peter Grant’s kicking straight to the Crusaders back three or the outside backs trying to grubber through when advancing on the Crusaders 22. The Saders defence was tight, but like any side in the world, they’re not impenetrable. Perhaps maintaining the ball and exercising some patience would have been more prudent. It would be interesting to see stats that indicate how many times the Stormers went through more than five phases. If they had hammered it up all night, then you could have given the Saders defence plaudits and the Stormers attack a consolatory pat on the back. But the Stormers were too quick to kick, and struggled to prevent a turnover after taking it through several phases.
The Crusaders will know they failed to reach their potential. They failed to finish off several opportunities. 22-0 is bad enough, but the scoreboard could so easily have read 36-0. And that’s if you’re being kind to the Stormers, as the Crusaders missed more than two try-scoring opportunities due to poor handling in the Stormers 22. Erasmus called them clinical, but a typically clinical Crusaders performance would have seen the visitors rack up 40-plus.
Robbie Deans’s charges may be boosted to know a substandard effort yields such a result, but the coach himself will know the Stormers weren’t as good on defence as everybody claims. Erasmus’s statistics confirm this, as only once did they stop the red tide from breaking the advantage line.
Erasmus is concerned with public negativity as a byproduct of three losses. What’s truly concerning is the expectation of the Stormers public and media to be satisfied with three losses, as the manner of defeat suggests deep-seated problems that will take time to fix.
The solitary try is a concern as the two tries were at this stage last year. Traditionally, the Stormers are the best-running team in South Africa, but currently they are the worst. If you’re not going to believe this column, a quick glance at the Super 14 log will confirm the fact.
By Jon Cardinelli
78 Comments
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5 Mar 2008, 13:46 pm
‘n Klomp boere hou vergadering in die Vrystaat oor die jakkalse wat die skape so afmaai. Natuurbewaring stuur ‘n jong dametjie om die boere te kom oortuig om nie die diere uit te wis nie. ‘n Paar voorstelle word daar aan die vergadering voorgelê. Onder andere om die mannetjie jakkalse te vang en steriliseer, en so getalle te begin beheer sonder om die spesie uit te wis .
Sit een oomie baie aandagtig en luister en op die uitnodiging om vrae te stel, vra hy sy beurt aan en sê: ” Juffrou jy verstaan nie die probleem so mooi nie. Die jakkalse steek nie ons skape nie, hulle EET hulle.”
5 Mar 2008, 13:48 pm
halloooooooooo kwaggatjie
5 Mar 2008, 13:48 pm
I am beginning to wonder if making JDV captian was a good move. I think Rassie was a bit hasty there, he should have kept Luke his captian and made JDV vice captian.
5 Mar 2008, 13:53 pm
Hallooooooooooooooooooo 3E
Sien almal is hier in baklei bui vandag. Dink hierdie post probleem is ook besig om almal de moer in te kry. Dit werk woes op my senuwees.
5 Mar 2008, 13:58 pm
presies kwagga, maak mens mal man en dis al van vanoggend af….mens sou dink dat hulle iets daaromtrent sal doen……nog nie eers ‘n woord van hulle nie
5 Mar 2008, 13:58 pm
51. Kwagga.
Brilliant!!
5 Mar 2008, 13:59 pm
Hallo Kwagga –
Okay almal sal weer in loer as die tyd my toe laat.
Onthou as julle nagmerries kry van haaie dit is okay hulle is vriendelikker van die veld af ( uit die water) as wat julle dink…!!!!
5 Mar 2008, 14:04 pm
Niffels
Nee jong ek het maar nog sulke wilde flashbacks. Senuwees moer toe. Nog so skok teen die Lions dan skyt ek basies permanent in my broek weens swak senuwees.
5 Mar 2008, 14:16 pm
A new movement has been established:
PARE
P = People
A = Against
R = Rassie
E = Erasmus
Maybe Rassie sipped keo off at a post match function?
5 Mar 2008, 14:23 pm
I just wonder where this idea came up that the Stormers had a dangerous backline. When was this? 2000? Their backline hasn’t done anything impressive in the past 4 years, at least. They did have their moments, but that would have been 10 minutes of brilliant play in a whole season.
The problem is, and have always been, they try the fancy stuff, but they can’t do the basics.
5 Mar 2008, 14:41 pm
testing 1-2-3
5 Mar 2008, 14:44 pm
emailed webmaster with error, I’m outta here, cannot post like this
5 Mar 2008, 14:54 pm
Jeez JC,
Did you consult Jonty before you posted this? As far as I understand he worked with athletes and stats would be better assessed by him than Joe Public or a sports reporter.
Of course stats dont win you matches, of course stats does not score you tries, but stats do indicate where the potential problems lie why we dont score tries and you higlight one thing and one thing only, and that is kicking.
All South African teams and some Australisian teams makes themselves guilty of kicking too much under the ELV’s but they still score tries.
Perhaps try and look at stats to assess where we fall short. With more posession in hand, similar tackle counts but not crossing the gain line as effectively you can highlight many issues in attacking play than just kicking to make a point for the lack of tries.
Ever considered who the ball carriers are in comparison to the Crusaaders? Ever looked at which players effectively crossed the gain line for both teams and which not?
And then just perhaps come to a conclusion on what works and what does not.
As an example we use our centers and backline players mostly in attacking moves to try and cross the gain-line, the NZ-landers specifically uses big ball carrying loose forwards as second receivers (inside center).
Resulting in quick backline defenders being drawn into tackles and rucks to which the overseas backlines then shifts the ball through their backline, i.e. 10, 12, 13 and the rest running at forwards defending in the backline.
Also note that apart from picking and driving around the fringes, the number 10′s of most successful overseas teams are first receivers – who then decides whether to look for ball carriers or bashers to attack the advantage line or attack with speedy backs once defenders are sucked in.
IN SA, our 12′s are almost always used as the bash it uppers but by doing this we lose our creative playmakers on attack in structured phase play at the first or second phase – leaving brain-dead decision makers in the backline who kicks the ball, or the flyhalf kicking the ball because he has no play-maker next to him.
It is simple rugby.
Stats tell you we are ineffective in crossing the gain-line, also that we do not respect possession, which will obviously result in no tries scored.
It is small things that can be corrected.
5 Mar 2008, 16:55 pm
Can we have the stats for the Bulls please
5 Mar 2008, 16:59 pm
How many tries did the Stormers concede this year?
5 Mar 2008, 17:01 pm
Ons sien nou Rassie sukkel ook maar om van die stormers n wenspan te maak!net een vraag.Was Kobus vd Merwe regtig so swak afrigter?Rassie werk met basies die selfde klomp spelers as wat Kobus gehad het.Die vinger moet n slag na die spelers gewys word en n paar van ons “sterre” moet weggejaag word!!!
5 Mar 2008, 17:31 pm
GP
The Stormers have conceded three tries so far. The Bulls have conceded twelve.
The Bulls have scored two tries, with the Stormers scoring only one.
The teams have played exactly the same teams (and each other).
Tries scored: 2-1
Tries conceded: 12-3
And people keep harping on about the Stormers?
5 Mar 2008, 17:32 pm
So, on try difference, it looks as follows:
Bulls: -10
Stormers: -2
5 Mar 2008, 17:49 pm
Take it easy Jon…
Between you and Keo I’m surprised you haven’t hunted Rassie down and butchered him!
Give the man time for Gods sakes. We live in a culture where we want everything now! Yes, it hurts me too to see them lose but patience is a virtue. We know there isn’t a great deal of depth in the Stormers squad.
The Bulls didn’t start firing straight away under Heynecke Meyer either. But he promised the fans that in time he would great something great. Rassie has already done that with the Cheetahs, lets at least allow him a fair amount of time before we get out the knives..
5 Mar 2008, 17:51 pm
Like the time “van†was at the rugby, Bokke vs England.
He was carrying a “Vierkleurâ€, the other ou’s in the stand were impressed.
England scored, van stood up and waved his Vierkleur and shouted a lot.
The other ou’s in the stand were shocked and thus remained silent.
England scored again, van stood up again with his Vierkleur and waved and shouted. The ou’s were ready for him.
“Hey boet do you know what flag that is, its sacred†van “Ja dis die Vierkleur van die Zuid Afrikaanse Republiekâ€. “Well…how come you are waving it and shouting when England scoreâ€. van “jy moet hom vertaal boetieâ€. Vierkleur…Four colour. “Ja, dis wat ek se…Fok Hulleâ€
5 Mar 2008, 18:11 pm
4man
Very funny. Good “lag”.
5 Mar 2008, 18:12 pm
Cheetahs and Stormers going over as laughing stock.
I would not be suprised if Cheetah’s take Reds to the wire and Stormers beat the Reds.
No I am not smoking something.
We are judging our teams based on the best two teams in the comp who will thrash anyone. (Admittedly they are the benchmark)
When we play other ‘normal’ teams – it will not be so noticeable.
Only other teams that will run our lower ranked SA teams into the ground will be the Canes, Tahs and possibly, maybe, on a good day, the Brumbies.
Stormers to beat the Reds.
And no, I am not a Stormers fan. At all.
I base my opinion on this:
Most Aussie Backlines and the Chiefs and Highlanders have been just as unimaginative as our guys. It is not accurate to project the Blues’ 100kg plus backs onto every other team. And for the Saders, well, they are the best coached team in the tournament.
I am terrified for when Deans gets hold of the Wallabies. I can just thank my lucky stars the Aussies don’t have the forward muscle of the kiwis.
5 Mar 2008, 18:33 pm
#72
Yeah, as long as the Aussies keep using Dunning up front we’ll always have a chance to kill thier front row. Remember how Sheridan mauled him in the RWC?
5 Mar 2008, 19:45 pm
Realfan. I did not get how you based your opinion on a stormers win.
Stormers were not good against a Crusaders team that was not firing on all cylinders, and did not score (at home). The Reds/Brumbies score did not reflect the game. Reds came close to scoring a number of times, against a improved Brumbies team in their backyard.
Stormers loose 3 hard games then fly to Aus and now have more injuries with confidence shot.
Sorry, even as a stormer fan, I cant see them winning. I hope they do.
5 Mar 2008, 23:23 pm
JC you obviously have a personal beef with Rassie.
Grow up
5 Mar 2008, 23:49 pm
#29 Big chip on your shoulder mate!!
5 Mar 2008, 23:58 pm
JJOOONNNTTTYYYYY!!!! JJOOONNNTTTYYY!!!! Skrik wakker, die site raak al hoe k@kker. Is die comp nog aan of wat? Where’s the points table for I’m clueless to my progress, if any.
6 Mar 2008, 11:23 am
Jussis okes, it’s not looking good.
The good things that Rassie is doing:
1) mixing up the set pieces – Sireli at the base of the scrum? 2 man bash teams from a ruck? All new and all interesting, but not translating into points.
2) Letting Luke play rugby. Best decision was to take the spotlight away from Luke and let him play. Will pay dividends in years to come.
3) Beefing up the front row. Our tight 5 is looking the most formidable it has in years.
the bad things that Rassie is doing:
1) Continuity – it’s not a winning formula, it has to change. The pivots are too slow to get good ball across the gain-line. By the time the outer backs see the ball, they are getting the man-on-man defender at the same time. Jantjes also is not looking as good as Aplon at creating opportunity.
2) Relying on Allister – It’s patently obvious how bad he is. The Stormers backline is looking sluggish and when they do get good forward ball there is no attack plan. Not that Slappies is doing much better at the Bulls.
3) Shooting his mouth off – Take a note from the losing NZ and Aussie coaches. Action speaks louder than words. Let’s start seeing some match-on-match improvement in play!
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