Preview: Boks vs Lions (2nd Test)
26 Jun 2009
If the Springboks stay hungry they will humiliate the Lions in the process of claiming an emphatic series win.
The Lions were spared a deserved flogging last week when a string of substitutions curtailed the Boks’ momentum. What should have been a comfortable victory by a 25-point margin ended a five-point squeaker.
Accuracy and consistency need to be the Bok buzzwords this weekend. The sum total is a series victory, but a more clinical showing should result in a more convincing win both on the park and on the scoreboard.
Schalk Burger’s return is a massive boost. The Bok back row were dominant last week, and while they lose Brussow’s fetching prowess this Saturday, they gain the cannon-ball running strength of Burger.
The Stormers’ flanker will also shore up the defence significantly. With respect to Brussow, the Cheetahs’ No 6 is not going to knock lummoxes like Jamie Heaslip back. Burger can and, in all likelihood, will.
The changes to the Lions’ front row will test the Bok scrum, but it’s a combination the South Africans stood up to in Cardiff last November. The momentum is also with the Boks in this department and, while they won’t dominate like they did last week, they should provide a solid platform for the backs.
Simon Shaw has been brought in to counter Bakkies Botha’s physicality, but on his recent performances in the provincial matches, you can’t even consider him a contender. Aside from this aspect, Botha will also play his part in a dominant lineout that includes Victor Matfield, Juan Smith and Pierre Spies. The Boks should have great attacking ball from this set-piece and continue to upset the Lions’ throw.
An upset can be achieved by winning the territorial game and exposing the Boks’ weak defence in the outside channels. Adi Jacobs has a lot to prove this Saturday, and the Lions have all but painted a bull’s eye on his chest. He needs to take the fight to the opposition without shooting out of line, and communication, something that was hardly apparent at King’s Park, needs to better.
Fourie du Preez and Ruan Pienaar have only played two Tests together but looked solid last week. Du Preez will be more comfortable at Loftus where his tactical kicking will come to the fore, and in this department, Pienaar has shown he’s no slouch.
Frans Steyn is a drop-kick threat and his line-kicking will pin the Lions back. In Rob Kearney, however, the Lions have a prodigious punter of the rugby ball. In the battle for territory, he is the Lions’ key player. Mike Phillips and Stephen Jones are still important, but Kearney could put real pressure on the Bok back-three if he adapts to highveld conditions early on.
The Boks can’t afford to stray from the game plan that proved so efficient in the first half last week. They will kick for territory and look to strike from within the opposition half. If they can control possession better than they did in Durban, they should prove too strong for the Lions yet again.
The Lions are hoping a multi-phase attack will wear the Boks down, but other than said weak spot at 13, the home defence is just too good to succumb to this tactic.
Prediction: Boks by 15
Springboks – 15 Frans Steyn, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Adi Jacobs, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Ruan Pienaar, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 John Smit (c), 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Chilliboy Ralepelle, 17 Deon Carstens, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Danie Rossouw, 20 Heinrich Brussow, 21 Jaque Fourie, 22 Morne Steyn.
British & Irish Lions – 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Brian O’Driscoll, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Luke Fitzgerald, 10 Stephen Jones, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 David Wallace, 6 Tom Croft, 5 Paul O’Connell (c), 4 Simon Shaw, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Matthew Rees, 1 Gethin Jenkins
Subs: 16 Ross Ford, 17 Andrew Sheridan, 18 Alun-Wyn Jones, 19 Martyn Williams, 20 Harry Ellis, 21 Ronan O’Gara, 22 Shane Williams.
By Jon Cardinelli, in Johannesburg
432 Comments
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26 Jun 2009, 17:11 pm
#392 sharks_lover: Well a good point SA Rugby mag made on that point was that there are 200 SA players overseas!
Imagine we could get those guys back and spread their talents around the provincial teams! A few players to consider:
Big Joe
Shawn Sowerby
Ollie
CJ vd Linde
Butch
Neil de Kock
Brent Russell
Gary Botha
Wickus v Heerden
the list goes on… but those are some awesome players to have – we’d have no problem fielding another S15 team!
26 Jun 2009, 17:14 pm
The dangerous thing is the inverted reality that PDV sees.
Last Saturday he saw the Boks as being flat, needing an injection of enthusiasm, when the rest of the world was watching them methodically dismantle the Lions and racking up a big score.
26 Jun 2009, 17:22 pm
Another point is we always play tests against the countries individually , now we play the lions who are a team of 4 strong rugby nations in one
Imangine that made a 6 nations team against a team made up of boks , kiwi’s aussies ???
man i think we would murder them
26 Jun 2009, 17:23 pm
#397 sglazer: EXACTLY. Thats how we all saw it. So not really sure what the coach was looking at.
26 Jun 2009, 17:24 pm
#397 sglazer: I don’t think they would have come close to us if we just left the side play for 80min.
26 Jun 2009, 17:26 pm
#398 sharks_lover: No contest at all. 3N would slaughter a 6N team.
26 Jun 2009, 17:28 pm
Cheers all out of here now.
GO BOKKE.
26 Jun 2009, 17:37 pm
#363 sharks_lover: And you weren’t a typical one-eyed Sharks supporter last night on the Chilli blog?
Be that as it may, and I have just said this again above- Deysel was great, Potties was just in a league of his own. Duanne was equally great and they are a wonderful comination. Fact is, to each his own, because any of them will do well in the Bok setup, and I reckon it’s a question of horses for courses.
Truth is, Schalla and Juan are playing too much rugby, and if we don’t start blooding some youngsters ASAP they won’t make it to WC 2011- Both are battling with longterm injury and especially Juan is one concussion away from the end of the road.And Pakslae won’t be a loosie option come 2011- maybe lock. It was very apparent last Saturday.
I am also of the opinion that an out and out fetcher like Brussouw is a luxury no team can afford. No player can make every ruck, no matter how hard he tries, and it’s a question of balance. Brussouw might make 75 % of the breakdowns, but the opposition, if patient, will score off the 25 % he doesn’t make as fetcher. I’d far rather look at splitting the workload between two more versatile similar players like Schalla and Juan, Pottie and Deysel, etc. It will play less havoc on the team dynamics and gameplan as well.
But that will call for some difficult decisions- likle no more Pakslae, Brussouw and Kanko, and that’s a beehive SA is not ready to disturb yet. Langbek is there and Pottie can cover 6,7 and 8 and I’m sure Deysel can be a lock cover option as well as a 7. It will certainly create a far more balanced squad, especially as it will allow us to pick either an extra prop or a 5/3 bench.
But, that’s a headache for another day. Tomorrow we support the incumbents 110%.
26 Jun 2009, 18:29 pm
#374 sharks_lover: Just in case you thought that one slipped throught- the second one I have given you as a peace offering. I was in two minds whether it was a steal or a knock-on by them-= in my analysis I took it as the latter, but seeing as you’re so passionate, you can take it.
By the way, I’ve never forced my opinion onto anyone- I’m merely stating facts.
Up here in the land of the blue we look out for our own, and whenstatements are made based on pure conjecture like you did last night, …. well, let’s just vsay we get touchy. But typical one-eyed? Never!
27 Jun 2009, 08:27 am
#403 bluruggaguru: hi blu….Potgieter has a great future….no doubt…..1 thing i disagree on ….
You say Brussow a luxury a team cannot afford…i say a brussow,steggman,luke at openside an absolute neccessity….
In fact a schalk and a Juan is a luxury a team cannot afford….and hopefully boks will get thru today without too much problems despite a poor balanced back row…
For me, in modern rugby, 1 of the vital components is the 2 to the ball fetcher…a hugely disruptive force….never a luxury….an absolute neccessity….
Good debate though!
27 Jun 2009, 09:51 am
Fetcher does not have to be a flank. Kitch Christie used Dalton and a centre. That said, we are too much in the ‘big ‘un’ mindset. Neil Back suffered from this and made a big difference in the tests he was chosen. Typical highveld weather it seems – high, cold and hard. The Lions, on paper, have the better balanced team and especially bench. Yet they will lose. Heavily.
27 Jun 2009, 10:29 am
#405 grant10:
27 Jun 2009, 10:32 am
#407 bluruggaguru:
I know it sounds like begging with a white bread under the arm, but I really expected more of an impact from Brussouw on Saturday, and that go t me thinking.
I’ve watched Stegman and Potgieter’s last few games for the Bulls again and then a light came on in my head.
It’s a lot better to play like they did (with similar skillsets)by taking locational responsibility for fetching and tackling and the other facets as opposed to splitting the field or having a dedicated fetcher and a dedicated tackler etc.
What this means is if I get up out of a ruck and the game has moved across field there is very little sense in tearing across field because I have to be there according to our pattern- rather trust my partner to cover that facet and I read the play and get myself into place for the next phase, and likewise, he then does the same. In this way we expend a lot less energy, are better prepared and much more effective. That way, if we lose a fetcher to injury, or more pertinently a yellow card as is prone to happening due to inconsistent refereeing at the breakdown, it doesn’t leave a gaping hole in our tactical and technical ability as a team. It also allows for playing bigger guys (see pack weight come scrum time, etc) which have spin-off benefits in other areas.
27 Jun 2009, 10:33 am
#408 bluruggaguru:
There might be another psychological aspect as well. If I know my coach has picked an out and out fetcher and his job is to chase the ball like a terrier, it will only be natural for me to try to focus on something else to re-inforce my value-add to the team, eg. carrying , which will result in me standing out more, being less involved in the physical stuff and waiting for the ball to come to me to carry. This attitudinal thing can become infectious and affect a number of players who rate themselves in certain areas and before long, without it having been planned you have a lack of presence and commitment and support at the breakdown, your fetcher starts to struggle because of lack of numbers and support and you lose the match without really knowing why.
With Luke having been effective at fetching from eight, isn’t this maybe why Schalla has not been as prominent ?
Isn’t this why Pierre Spies- with two excellent Bulls flankers to do the dirty work for him, has evolved into a ball carrier by preference, and resultantly being less committed in the tackle, missing more than most other players of his ilk.
Isn’t this why The Sharks battled towards the latter part of the S14- with them having played two grafters after Deysel’s injury, in Botes and Daniel, and Kanko having almost “accidently” evolved or migrated into the Spies mindset, and then having Deysel- who is also more of a carrier than a fetcher, return and unintentionally causing a void in their pattern, presence at the breakdown and commitment of numbers, and ultimately affecting the team dynamic?
Just asking ?
27 Jun 2009, 10:35 am
#407 bluruggaguru:
Sorry for the long post. I guess the post didn’t appear due to its length.
27 Jun 2009, 10:38 am
#406 xam1:
Another reason why the Bulls were so successful this year?
Derek Kuun’s role at hooker.
27 Jun 2009, 10:53 am
#409 bluruggaguru:
And wasn’t this very clearly evident in the resurgence of the BL’s the moment Brussouw was replaced by Pakslae?
So I guess Brussoue and Juan are a far better combo than Pakslae and Juan, but then everyone, even a blind guy with a stick, knew that- everyone except PdV that is to say.
All of which makes Pakslae imminently dispendable, given the team dynamic when including a dedicated fetcher, especially if you are including Langbek on the bench as well.
27 Jun 2009, 11:07 am
I guess the answer to the fetcher conundrum is – if you’re playing one you should play fetchers at 6 and 7, and make sure your bench includes a fetcher as well. Otherwise your team dynamic goes for a ball of ****. And then you need a really dominant tight five.
If you don’t have the brawn and grunt up front it is best to go for your Schalla/Juan style combo, which is I guess what will happen mostly.
Neil Back could slot successfully into the English pack at the time because of their grunt and brawn.
So it’s back to horses for courses.
27 Jun 2009, 11:20 am
Brussow, Potgieter and Vermeulen in that order with Spies off the bench, a damn site better than Schalk, Juan and Spies with Danie off the bench any day of any week as things stand currently in today’s speeded up game style.
And today’s deficiencies will prove it so.
But then you have to have the grunt up front, that goes without saying.
I play my 2009 combo against your 2007 combo any day and we’ll drill you into the turf as long as I have a decent front 5.
27 Jun 2009, 11:31 am
#414 skopskiet:
Skop that is a fine loose trio yuo are proposing and I have no doubt that combo will feature in the future….if they can survive what I call the 2year test……. all those players you have mentioned have only just arrived on the international scene so other sides have not yet been able to identify their strengths an weaknesess…..if they can reproduce this form after a year they will go on to be greats, Schalk, Juan have proven their ability over numerous years, and are still a handful for opposition, therefore that experience in a game like today is vital.
i think you will see the likes of Brussouw and Potgieter and Vermeulen will start getting their opportunities in the eoyt and as we build towards 2011.
27 Jun 2009, 11:34 am
Did you guys notice how little coverage/controvesy the new bok jersey got….I think it looks pretty good !!!
27 Jun 2009, 11:44 am
#416 justrugby:
problem will come at the next wc
the part where the bok is currently, will be taken up by the wc emblem … whereto with the bok then?
27 Jun 2009, 11:53 am
#417 ashley: yip, gonna be interesting, I’m sure there will be a solution, the Bok will appear somewhere on the front !!
27 Jun 2009, 11:58 am
#408 bluruggaguru: That is what has happened with the Boks. For years Burger and Smith have played like that.
27 Jun 2009, 12:07 pm
Hi Chaps
For me personally Brussowat 6, Dewalt Potgierter at 7 and Spies at 8….Bobs your aunt….any bets thats the 2011 WC loose trio with Deysel and Steggmann on the bench??
27 Jun 2009, 12:11 pm
#420 grant10: Barring injuries and loss of form ….probably…maybe a certain Nic Koster will also come into contention ??
27 Jun 2009, 12:13 pm
2011 Locks…Bekker, Sykes, Steenkamp,Fondse ??
27 Jun 2009, 12:13 pm
#420 nervous_grant10:
much more relaxed today i see
27 Jun 2009, 12:15 pm
#423 ashley: Not me, this could be tighter than Durbs, they (lions) are playing to save series, going to be like men posessed !!!
27 Jun 2009, 12:20 pm
#424 justrugby:
naah, we’ll be allright bru. the pressure of trying to stay in the series will be too much for the lions!!
27 Jun 2009, 12:21 pm
#425 ashley: Hope so boet !!
27 Jun 2009, 14:02 pm
#421 justrugby: #422 justrugby: #420 grant10: I agree, although it would be nice to have some experience there as well!
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