Saders tipped for semi triumph
17 May 2010
Respected Kiwi writer Marc Hinton says the Crusaders have the ability to beat the Bulls in the Super 14 semi-final in Soweto.
Hinton, writing for stuff.co.nz, believes the Saders are the ideal team to face the Bulls this weekend, especially after the latter rested their key players for the clash against the Stormers last Saturday.
He has listed five reasons why the Saders will win:
1 Momentum. Believe it or not it’s actually on the side of the Crusaders despite their patchy finish to the season. They were the best team on the paddock a fortnight ago when they wound down their unsuccessful tour with a 35-40 defeat notable as much for the outrageous refereeing performance of Marius Jonker as it was for anything spectacular the Bulls did.
The Saders took plenty out of that Loftus match where they played most of the rugby, established the tempo and very much dictated terms for a clash which swung on two or three contentious decisions by Jonker. Then they turned round, off the long trip home, and pretty clinically dealt to a Brumbies side that had the sniff of the semis in their nostrils.
There were signs at the weekend that the Crusaders game had finally gone to the level that Blackadder has been seeking for a while now. Their work, particularly off turnover, was as sharp as it’s been all year and when New Zealand’s best team has its link play and counter game going, they are always tough to beat.
On the other side of the coin the Bulls forsook momentum in favour of resting their top lineup ahead of the semifinals – a tactic fraught with danger. It hasn’t worked in the past – particularly for the Waratahs in 2002 – and it will be interesting to see how the Bulls come out on the back of what was essentially a bye week for their leading players.
2 The Soweto factor. The Bulls have an awesome record at Loftus Versfeld where they haven’t been beaten in over two years and where they’ve never lost in the Super rugby post-season.
But unfortunately for them, this semi ain’t at their Pretoria fortress, it’s in a soccer stadium in Soweto, because of the looming Fifa World Cup. That changes the playing field significantly.
Any mental blocks the Crusaders may have had over playing at a stadium where they’ve twice been rolled by the Bulls at semifinal time now go out the window.
Instead it’s been notable that the Crusaders team have been embracing the Soweto factor ahead of the match, expressing their excitement at the chance to play in the famous Johannesburg township at a quality venue just a stone’s throw from the brand new Soccer City stadium that will host the World Cup final in a few short weeks.
Loftus may not have held any fears for the Saders, but it certainly presented some bad memories. There will still be a full house of Bulls fans at Orlando Stadium, but that won’t worry the Kiwis a bit as they look to make the most of their scheduling break.
3 They’re due. Simple as that. The Crusaders have a superb post-season record with this their ninth straight semifinal appearance and their 12th in 13 seasons. Until 2007 they’d never lost a semi, and they responded to that departure (at the hands of the Bulls) by bouncing back to claim title No 7 the following year.
What do you know they lost at the semifinal stage to the Bulls again last year, so if the cycle holds true they should go all the way again in 2010.
But more than just sequencing suggests this could be the Crusaders year. They’re an outfit that have played more playoffs football than anybody in the competition, and they know what’s required at this stage. Plus they tend to learn their lessons. Those two semifinal defeats by the Bulls will be painful reminders of just what it takes to win against this tough side. A fortnight ago showed they’ve got a plan that works. Now they just need to execute it a smidgeon better and get a fairer deal from the man with the whistle.
4 They’ve got a better backline. Sure, everyone knows rugby wins are forged up front, but both these packs are full of quality individuals and really should cancel each other out. Lineout edge to Bulls, scrum one to Crusaders, the breakdown and loose forward battle should be a beaut.
But the Crusaders’ attack game has found its feet in the nick of time, with Zac Guildford, Sean Maitland, Colin Slade, Dan Carter and, to a lesser degree, Robbie Fruean running into some serious form. The decision to go with Dan Bowden as a second five-eighth also seems to have worked, especially in terms of the distribution and kicking game.
The Bulls, on the other hand, are without their best finisher (van den Heever) to suspension and, let’s face it, have never been renowned for their willingness to shift it through the hands. If the Crusaders can again make this a free-flowing encounter, they will hold the trump cards.
5 Dan Carter. He’s spent all year making uncharacteristic mistakes and struggling to find his A game. But the last two weeks there have been signs that the world’s best No 10 is coming back to the form that we’ve come to expect from him.
The battle between two fabulous pivots could well decide this clash. Morne Steyn has punished the Crusaders heavily in their recent meetings and Blackadder will stress the need to minimise the chances for this great points-taker to have either shots or pots at goal.
But Steyn does not have the decision-making prowess, nor the running game, of Carter at his best. All season the All Black great has played a strangely off-key tune, but wouldn’t it be typical – and timely – for him to take command now when the stakes are highest.
Steyn is a fine player. But he’s not Carter. Big advantage to the Crusaders.
Click here for the full article on stuff.co.nz
28 Comments
17 May 2010, 07:36 am
not that easy Mr Hinton
17 May 2010, 07:45 am
If the saders pull this off then us saffas will never be able to bleat about travel factor again !
However I reckon the bulls have been plotting for this one after the last match and the dissent over reffing decisions. The Bulls will have to smash into them from the word go, no slow starts. And Morne will have to get his kicking sorted 100%.
Great game coming up.
17 May 2010, 07:47 am
I suspect a bit of bias in his assement. I mean listing “They’re due” as a reason in quite pathetic. I doubt a betting man takes that into consideration.
“Momentum” he has no idea what is going on in the Bulls camp so I doubt he can make a judgement on that.
“The Soweto factor” I think he understimates the excitment and energy there is going to be in soweto stadiumn. This is a historic occasion in SA rugby. You can bet the boys are going to be even more pumped!
17 May 2010, 07:53 am
I agree that the Bulls backline outside of Morne falls well short…
17 May 2010, 08:08 am
@Sonito(Sonito)-3: Of course theres some bias, he’s a Kiwi, but the relevance is there glaring people straight in the face..the Crusaders were the better last outing and they had to travel and they know it..this is the factor that they will bring to the “Dome” and I believe a truckload of belief. This thing about they are due is ****, but no one can deny that the Crusaders are the Kings of the S14 with as many titles and semi’s under their belts. The Bulls have more than come of age and now its really about the best of the best. Even if the Bulls fall short is there any disgrace involved, hardly, having been in the winners and/or finalists/semis for four years running.
This is all just finicky **** going on. At the end of the day there will probably be a ‘lucky’ bounce of the ball, a missed penalty or a handling error that will tip the scales in favour of one of these two great teams….and then we will move on the serious stuff to start all over again on with national pride over the Tri-Nations
17 May 2010, 08:52 am
Hmmmm…will the Bulls have Bakkies..?…Advantage Crusaders maybe…but not very big….it’s gonna be a hard fought battle,may the best team win
17 May 2010, 08:53 am
This article is pathetic. Its like writing an article saying that JJ Harmse backs the Bulls to win.
Marc Hinton is a Kiwi of course he is going to back the Saders.
17 May 2010, 09:22 am
after the blues beat the bulls, the whole of NZ celebrated the fact that NZ finally knew how to beat the SA teams, and it symbolised the turning point, not only for the blues but for NZ rugby after their recent displays against SA opposition.
and we all know whats happened since
sure the crusaders have a chance this weekend. anyone would be stupid to think otherwise. but if the TAB here in NZ is willing to make the crusaders favorites, i’ll happily put some money on the bulls.
but no. bulls paying $1.50 and crusades $2.45. odds seem about right.
17 May 2010, 09:25 am
great,we’re the underdogs, awesome.
17 May 2010, 09:40 am
win or lose the Crusaders have won in my books… a few weeks back no one here really gave them too much hope, but they have bounced back and have created seriaas doubt in many supporters minds..
17 May 2010, 09:46 am
@poppa69(poppa69)-10:
they’ve always been good at timing their challenge and it seems they’re peaking at the right time. best news is mccaw and carter are finally playing some rugger, so AB coaches can sigh with relief.
but its a big ask going against the tournies most consistant team at home at altitude, and after all the flying they’ve done recently. if they do manage to win, i will be very impressed.
17 May 2010, 09:56 am
Put away the crystal balls and enjoy the game, its going to be a doozy!
17 May 2010, 10:07 am
Mr Hinton is setting himself and many kiwis up for a disappointment.
17 May 2010, 10:09 am
Can’t imagine that playing in Soweto will affect the Bulls much if at all.
Still playing in SA in front of their supporters.
17 May 2010, 10:16 am
With all due respect, Mark Hilton is a douchebag.
17 May 2010, 10:22 am
So Soccer city will have its first match/ opening on Saturday 22 May. Tickets for the match (Wits vs. Amazulu) ionly 40 bucks.. Gonnna be packed and Soweto will be booming
17 May 2010, 10:26 am
I for one will not take the Crusaders lightly neither will Ludeke or Matfield. The Crusaders are worthy opponents and deserve their semi final spot.
One things is for sure, it is going to be a humb dinger!!
I am more worried for the Stormers, the Waratahs are a whily bunch and will try and grind out a win1!
17 May 2010, 11:27 am
“Respected” Kiwi writer?! I dont know who respects him, certainly not me.
Of course they have a CHANCE, anyone has a change, the Lions had a chance of making the semis.
The Bulls are on awesome form, and Orland is still at altitude and is still closer to Loftus than the Cantebury
17 May 2010, 11:34 am
so the bulls will lose because:
1)the ref wont cheat again
2)the saders are due (and i thought entitlement was a saffa phenomenon?)
3)dancing dan will come into form just for this game?
mr hinton must tell his kids the bestest fairytales EVER!
17 May 2010, 12:02 pm
this is poised to be one hell of a game! Can’t wait
17 May 2010, 12:05 pm
Haha
Hilton clutching at straws…
Firstly Soweto is still on the highveld, and it will be filled with the same bulls supporters that normally spend there Saturdays at Loftus (me included).
Momentum? Haha, the Crusaders played there best game of the season vs the bulls and still lost – for the 3rd game in a row. how’s that for momentum…
Oh and they are travelling back to SA this week after just leaving us a week ago. last 30 minutes there legs will be like jelly, and the bulls will be leading before then, so just imagine the score…
“They’re due” isn’t a cause for optimism!
17 May 2010, 12:11 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-20: Me neither. It’s great that come 5pm on Saturday there is such a big fixture waiting for us. A pity the Bulls robbed us of a epic fixture last week against the Stormers though.
17 May 2010, 12:13 pm
@rossoneri(rossoneri)-22:
a pity for who rosso?
the tahs?
LMAO!
the stormers fans at newlands didnt seem too upset.
17 May 2010, 12:51 pm
All I can say is that the Bulls have been building for the semis for a while now. This has been planned for a long time…..
The last game the Bulls played against the Crusaders they were caught napping …. this will not happen again.
Agreed with all the plaudits to the Crusaders …. worthy opponents who, if they win, will REALLY deserve it.
It is for the Bulls to lose, BUT if they turn up at full throttle, god help the Crusaders. They have had to play their hearts out just to get there …. but this may just be a step, and a flight too far …. and this Kiwi Journo is TRUELLY grasping at straws ….
17 May 2010, 12:58 pm
Lekker man. Skryf die Bulle af. Sien wat gebeur met die Crusaders Saterdag.
17 May 2010, 17:47 pm
it’s all true, the Bulls will lose.
17 May 2010, 19:48 pm
the saders will win because “They’re due”..ha ha ha that is so fkn funny what a crock of shite ffs. Is hinton a proper rugby writer, with shite like that one wonders. saders are going down and the Bulls backline will fk them up!!
18 May 2010, 01:00 am
@byoboy(byoboy)-27: We can’t be too critical of their writers with the pack of idiots we have writing on this site.
Lucky we have all the “response writers” to improve the quality
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