Expect a red hot Cardiff clash
4 Jun 2010
There is no such thing as a ‘nothing’ Test. Saturday’s Bok confrontation with Wales in Cardiff has significance.
The Springboks, in the build-up to the 2007 World Cup, relished every chance they had to play – and beat – England. Even when they thrashed an England side in South Africa missing the core of their regulars the Boks spoke up the meaning of constantly winning against blokes wearing the English white jersey.
Wales have only beaten the Boks once in 100 years, but they’ve come bloody close on a couple of occasions, and the 20-15 Bok win in Cardiff in 2008 could very easily have been a Welsh victory.
Both teams are missing regulars, but it is by no means the best of Wales against a second string Bok team. It is the best available Welsh team and it isn’t that far off the best Bok team, especially now that Fourie du Preez is out for the year.
The Bok tight five is the best that currently can be selected and while I’d always select Schalk Burger and Juan Smith to start at next year’s World Cup, Francois Louw and Dewald Potgieter were the form South African loose-forwards in the Super 14. Joe van Niekerk has been outstanding at flank and No 8 for Toulon for the last two years and there isn’t much to choose between an in-form Van Niekerk and a firing Pierre Spies.
At halfback one of Ricky Januarie or Ruan Pienaar will start for the Boks this season and how they perform against Wales will have a huge bearing on the Boks’ season. The Springboks cannot play the same quality kicking game without Du Preez and his unavailability is a leveller because it forces the Boks to adjust their attack.
Butch James should have played and the intention was always to move Pienaar to halfback in the second half and James to flyhalf. Hypocrisy and greed, in terms of Player Welfare and remuneration, means James has to watch from the stands. It is an opportunity lost.
Jaque Fourie is the best outside centre in South Africa, Francois Steyn is the best selection at fullback and Juan de Jongh has been on the rise all season and would have been in an extended Bok squad, regardless of Jean de Villiers’s availability and that of Bulls centre Wynand Olivier.
Gio Aplon and Francois Hougaard were the most exciting of the wingers in the competition and are fighting it out for one place with JP Pietersen and Lionel Mapoe injured. So when you consider a match 22 of who is fit to play for the Boks in the next two months, the players missing for Cardiff are Bakkies Botha, Burger, Spies, Morne Steyn, Bryan Habana and one of De Villiers or Olivier at inside centre.
This team isn’t as second rate as some have made out, and 10 of those starting in Cardiff would always start.
The preparation for the Boks has not been easy because of the chaos around James’s selection and withdrawal three times in three days. What is important in the context of the Test is the presence of John Smit and Victor Matfield, the two most experienced tight forwards currently playing international rugby.
Wales, since Warren Gatland became coach, have closed the gap on the Boks in every Test, and there is a belief within the Welsh squad that Saturday will be the occasion they actually close it completely and win.
I would not bet my house against it happening. Victory for the Boks will show this side can win without the halfback kicking game of Du Preez and (Morne) Steyn, which as a combination has no equal in rugby.
Defeat will give every one of the chasing pack belief that there is a vulnerability to the Boks when Du Preez isn’t wearing No 9.
I don’t buy the dismissive attitude some have to this Test. I think it is massively significant in terms of the World Cup and because of the nature of the build-up trying to pick a winner would be the equal of picking a lotto number.
You’ll know within the first five minutes who is going to come out on top, but on a Friday afternoon trying to call this one would be like taking a leak in the dark. You may think you know which way it is going, but there can’t be any certainty.
If the Boks win this Test it has to be acknowledged what a good win it is. If they lose, there has to be a similar acknowledgement that the defeat will have an impact on their season and especially their pysche with respect to Wales at next year’s World Cup.
294 Comments
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4 Jun 2010, 14:29 pm
Damned if you do, damned if you don’t dragons
4 Jun 2010, 14:30 pm
excellent article Keo…many valid points and 1 huge point is that 10 of the team would be regular starters regardless.
Many fans/bloggers have forgotten this and therefore assume its a waste of a team/fixture.
Tough game and i would try grooming mvovo or hurdles now that jp injured.
4 Jun 2010, 14:32 pm
There’s just no way we are going to lose this one…
4 Jun 2010, 14:32 pm
This may be 70% our best team but with less than week to prepare there is no way we can crush these dragon wannabees. I think we will win but its going to be real tight affair.
4 Jun 2010, 14:33 pm
“Taking a leak in the dark”
Pure poetry
4 Jun 2010, 14:41 pm
Keo,
“This team isn’t as second rate as some have made out, and 10 of those starting in Cardiff would always start.”
That might be the case, but taking into account the overall 22, it is a very sub-par Bok side.
In a nutshell, the bench is piss-poor.
4 Jun 2010, 14:48 pm
@willievz(willievz)-6: agreed poor bench but if they beat us they will take confidence that they have beaten the core of our best side and not a Bok midweek special
4 Jun 2010, 14:50 pm
Its not tough to take a leak in the dark if you wee in the sink.
After all the drivel after the final, Keo finally shows that he has some common sense as a journalist. Who is his ghost writer?
4 Jun 2010, 14:51 pm
@WOLFMAN21(WOLFMAN21)-8: Don’t worry I’ve locked that Keo away until next year’s Bulls v Stormers Super 15 final!
4 Jun 2010, 14:52 pm
The things that might scupper the Boks are: the chaos of the last week, tiredness after the Super 14 final and a lack of preperation time.
If the Boks do win tomorrow, a lot of the Northern Hemisphere teams will be very worried.
4 Jun 2010, 14:54 pm
@keo(keo)-9:
Who the hell are you then?
4 Jun 2010, 14:55 pm
@keo(keo)-9: Hopefully the Stormers won’t do a Chiefs or a Bulls from 2008!
4 Jun 2010, 14:55 pm
One ray of light: Last time Januarie & Pienaar started at 9 & 10, we put over 40 on England at Twickenham.
4 Jun 2010, 15:01 pm
well…..here goes….i will say it…..
i take huge comfort in the knowledge that smit is there to lead the boks tomorrow from 2.
said it….its the truth….
4 Jun 2010, 15:02 pm
Only 5 Jones’s in the 22.
What is the quota?
4 Jun 2010, 15:03 pm
@grant10(grant10)-14:
Has your Doctor changed your medication Grunter?
8)
4 Jun 2010, 15:05 pm
@grant10(grant10)-14:
The truth? We can’t handle the truth.
4 Jun 2010, 15:05 pm
@grant10(grant10)-14: Now you can go eat your blue speedo!
4 Jun 2010, 15:07 pm
@WOLFMAN21(WOLFMAN21)-12: I know the Stormers won’t. Only difference next year is we will host final in Guguletu against the Bulls
4 Jun 2010, 15:08 pm
“A leak in the dark”, is a true gem.
However, ……………….I suspect, Keo has soiled the leg of many a companion over the years.
4 Jun 2010, 15:09 pm
While this may not be far from the best Bok side percentage wise, you have to agree that the key personnel that are missing double the potency of the Bok side.
It’s fine to talk about injuries at the moment, but compare it to the ideal team that will start the World Cup and you have the following heavy artillery pieces missing:
Smith, Brussouw and Spies, in other words our entire loose trio – the best back row in the world.
Fourie du Preez – Enough said.
Morne Steyn – Need I say more.
Jean de Villiers/Wynand Olivier – both light years more solid than the rookie starting on Saturday.
Bryan Habana and JP Pietersen.
Really, taking the NAMES and not just the numbers into account, this is very far from our best team. It’s like taking Carter and Mccaw out of the All Black team, only we’re talking heavyweights in just about EVERY position between 5 and 15.
4 Jun 2010, 15:14 pm
@Tacitus(Tacitus)-21: Have to disagree with your “Rookie” verdict. That “rookie” with Mossie were the best center partnership over the course of the S14. On defence especially… They work well together it seems. Hopefully they can translate their Stormers midfield solidity to test level. This is a good match to try this out… Obviously Meisiekind on his own has performed and will be in the mix but he does not quite gel with Fourie yet. MAybe more gametime needed together. But De Jongh and Fourie as a package are a damn decent deal…
4 Jun 2010, 15:17 pm
At least we have a proper tight5 now. Now the next challenge is to get a proper tight5 AND a world class halfback pairing on the field at the same time.
Next year just prior to the 2011 RWC we can start working on getting the right center and back three combos right, simultaneously, preferably.
4 Jun 2010, 15:17 pm
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game)-22:
So if it wasn’t Olivier but De Villiers, would you still suggest the De Jongh/Fourie partnership is a better one?
4 Jun 2010, 15:17 pm
There you go grantie better out than in.
Nice to see a return to form from keo after that guff you dished up over the last week..
Stormers by 10…honestly.
Even a bok team without 8 first choice players should be too good for the men from the valleys…,
That said the bench looks thin to me.
4 Jun 2010, 15:18 pm
@keo(keo)-19: Thats if the Aussies haven’t manipulated the Super 15 so that all finals have to take place at the Syndey Football Stadium in order to fund the Waratahs dreams of playing attacking rugby.
4 Jun 2010, 15:19 pm
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game)-22:
Part of why I believe it’s so important to have the Bok upcoming loose trio be of one union, at this time in history, sorry to say, it’s at the Blue Bulls.
4 Jun 2010, 15:24 pm
I agree with TAC (did i actually admit to that?) but it’s true, if anything, this game shows how we are lightyears ahead of any other team in world rugby regarding depth.
look at the names mia and you’ll agree, come 2011 we will have a very strong squad to take to the land of the long white cloud.
bring back
bakkies, schalk, juan and spies, fdp and morne steyn, jdv and habana and you’re takling more than half the team. 8 out of 15.
keo, this article could so easily have been twisted the other way. it’s in the eye of the beholder i guess.
4 Jun 2010, 15:25 pm
Best news ever, Keo tip a Bulls – Stormers final for 2011, that means the Sharks have a 1 in 13 chance of making the final! The Bulls and Stormers won’t even feature….
Why isn’t anyone buying tickets to watch the Boks in Witbank? The price is right (R250)
4 Jun 2010, 15:25 pm
@Tacitus(Tacitus)-21: @keo(keo)-19: The only comment I would like to make is that we kinda tried to tell ourselves the same thing when the Bulls B side went down to Cape Town, on paper they were similar sides in terms of number of boks, partnerships etc. BUT the lack of game time and settled partnerships was telling in the end with important things like defencive structures and not having settled descion makes (8,9,10,12) going astray!
The difference is that Wales is in a similar boat when it comes to game time as a unit. So I’m very cautious when we start trying to justify our side by saying look at the numbers!
4 Jun 2010, 15:27 pm
@gunther(gunther)-25: i can’t see how the welsh will stop themselves giving away penalties outside our 22…..and steyn will take care of the rest.
4 Jun 2010, 15:29 pm
my pants is red hot
4 Jun 2010, 15:29 pm
Gio Aplon, for all his S14 brilliance, is not an international winger.
He got badly shown up by the Bulls in a Test-like S14 final and looked like a primary school child mixing it with the big boys.
He’s too small. Groom Shadow
4 Jun 2010, 15:32 pm
@seamus(seamus)-33:
Not so much his size as his indecisiveness.
4 Jun 2010, 15:33 pm
@AlterEgo(AlterEgo)-30: ja
we moered you okes stukkend.
we will sort out your a team next year in Gugs as well….
matter of time
4 Jun 2010, 15:33 pm
@seamus(seamus)-33: i agree on aplon. too small, but then breytie could mix it up in his days, and he scored countless tries. let’s see…
4 Jun 2010, 15:36 pm
1 week to prepare. Few combinations. Players not playing in their preferred positions.
I’d say that we fans have every right to be worried.
As for the 10 players that should be starting, I’m not sure how you get that?
None of our 1st choice loosies are playing. Our top inside centre’s aren’t playing. Our top wings aren’t playing. Our top flyhalf and scrumhalf aren’t there and we’re missing one of our locks?
To be clear we are missing:
Spies
Smith
Brussouw
Botha
FDp
Steyn
JDV
Habana
JPP
That’s 9 players, who would ALWAYS start if they were fit/available?
Whilst this is a good test of depth and naturally I hope they perform and win, I think it’s a little unreasonable to give the impression that 10 of those starting would be assured a spot anyway. At best, the front row, Matfield and Fourie would be the only guys in this side who would make the Bok 1st team at full strength.
4 Jun 2010, 15:37 pm
@Tacitus(Tacitus)-24: To tell the truth on current form only – on a center partnership level – De Jongh and Mossie. Yes, JdV has more test caps and experience but his current form is not brilliant. He still has to get “back in the game” as such after some slomo rugby in the Magners league and a not entirely successful time for Munster in the HC. I believe that Steyn + Mossie combo would trump the lot… But this is a great opportunity for JdJ and not without merit (unlike Januarie, Odungane, Ralepelle) and is better than having Butch at 12.
4 Jun 2010, 15:39 pm
@Vetkoek(Vetkoek)-37: see my post at 28. i agree completely.
4 Jun 2010, 15:40 pm
@Agile T*t-Tyrant(Stegmannenov)-27: You forget about Juan Smith. Full stop.
4 Jun 2010, 15:42 pm
Burger, B du Plessis?
4 Jun 2010, 15:44 pm
i normally will able to give a 1 st team bok side sommer quick sticks…..
i am now seriously confused.
4 Jun 2010, 15:45 pm
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game)-40:
No I didn’t…I’ve only just read that he lengthened his contract with the Cheetahs.
Ja, ok.
I did.
4 Jun 2010, 15:46 pm
lengthened=extended
forgive the afrikaans english. “verleng”
4 Jun 2010, 15:47 pm
Very true Keo I think a lot of us are underestimating this game at our peril.
With a relatively new look team and 1 week to prepare I wouldn’t put it past an ever improving and extremely motivated Welsh side to put one past us. The master stroke of Warren Gatland and a duanting home crowd for any opposing side will make this a very tough game.
We’re still in that old mindset which almost sees a victory against a NH side as a foregone conclusion. The truth is Wales have been closing that gap year on year and when playing at home they aren’t far off.
Pienaar has plenty of talent but has never proven any level of consistency in a Bok jersey yet at Flyhalf.
4 Jun 2010, 15:48 pm
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game)-40:
But due to Juan’s leave till August…in the mean time…
4 Jun 2010, 15:48 pm
@Agile T*t-Tyrant(Stegmannenov)-43: He has experience and form despite his personal grief.
4 Jun 2010, 15:48 pm
@Tacitus(Tacitus)-21: Dont forget Gurthro Steenkamp. He is a monster in all facets of front row play
4 Jun 2010, 15:48 pm
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game)-47:
A real Bok hardman. Like Andre Venter.
4 Jun 2010, 15:52 pm
@GI POT(GI POT)-48: That he has been and his performances against top tightheads over the last few months justify him having a bite at making the position his own.
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