Preview: Wales vs Springboks
4 Jun 2010
Keo.co.za analyses the key match-ups and picks a winner at the Millennium Stadium.
The Welsh media are talking their boys up, and it’s true that the Dragons won’t get a better chance to beat the Springboks. Peter de Villiers has picked a side that has only two established combinations, and if that’s to be considered a weakness, the South Africans are certainly vulnerable. The majority of their first-choice players are enjoying a week off before the greater contest against France on 12 June, and De Villiers has asked the ‘dirt-trackers’ (plus a few stalwarts) to dispose of Wales.
That’s the perception, and if you’re going to skim the surface, you may be inclined to take perception for reality. Delve deeper, and it’s clear that while this team lacks game time as a unit, they are a team not lacking for individual quality. If they gel this Saturday, they’ll beat Wales comfortably. If they don’t, they still have the individuals to see off a spirited but limited Welsh challenge.
Let’s get back to perceptions. Last year, the Boks’ first-choice front-row was Beast Mtawarrira, Bismarck du Plessis and John Smit. In 2010, the Beast’s eligibility problems and Du Plessis’s injury has fractured that partnership, but Smit’s move back to hooker won’t be as temporary as some might believe. With Smit packing down between CJ van der Linde and BJ Botha, and the Super 14-winning combination of Danie Rossouw and Victor Matfield supplying the necessary grunt in the second row, the Boks will field one of their best scrummaging combinations.
Wales coach Warren Gatland has opted to bench Alun-Wyn Jones in favour of the Cardiff Blues combo of Deiniol Jones and Bradley Davies. Expect Gatland to pay for his error, as Matfield pinches opposition ball and secures the South African feed to earn terrific momentum from the lineout. The Boks still have the powerful carriers out wide, but they will also look to exercise their strength at the maul. With Smit resuming his lineout-partnership with Matfield, a partnership that proved so successful at the World Cup, you wouldn’t expect a lack of synergy.
The Boks’ proficiency in the set pieces will be matched at the breakdown, even though this is the first time Francois Louw, Dewald Potgieter and Joe van Niekerk have played together. The area where the Welsh may outclass the Boks is at halfback and in the centres, although the Boks’ forward dominance should limit the potency of the home backline.
Ricky Januarie’s physicality should keep Mike Phillips in check around the fringes, but he needs to inject some speed into his attacking game. Januarie was in disappointing form during the Super 14, and it wasn’t surprising to see him riding the bench for the majority of the campaign. If he’s to prove he’s more than rugby’s version of Benni McCarthy, he needs to get to the rucks much quicker in Cardiff.
With his forwards losing at the collisions, Stephen Jones will struggle to put his exemplary boot to good use. Ruan Pienaar produced a solid performance the last time the Boks visited Cardiff in 2008, but will be asked to vary his game on this occasion. On attack, he’ll make good use of Juan de Jongh’s carrying ability, but the Boks could certainly have done with Butch James’s bulk and defensive nous.
Primarily, James was to be tasked with keeping the powerful Jamie Roberts at bay. The British & Irish Lions centre had an impressive tour to South Africa last year, and remains the dangerman. However, De Jongh and Jaque Fourie formed a good partnership in the Super 14, playing for the tournament’s best defensive side in the Stormers. Again, if the Bok forwards manage to dominate, the backline’s job will be made easier. If De Jongh isn’t ready for the step up to Test rugby, he’s unlikely to be exposed in this clash.
James Hook and Lee Byrne add some flair to this Welsh backline, but the hosts’ lack the quality of a true gamebreaker like Shane Williams to really trouble the Bok defence. They shouldn’t look to break down the Boks through a kicking game either, as Frans Steyn will send those kicks back with interest. It’s also a risk considering the counter-attacking ability of debutant Gio Aplon. Wales were the second-worst defensive unit in the Six Nations, and I suspect they won’t want to create unnecessary challenges for themselves.
The key for Wales is to rattle this Bok side early and get that fantastic crowd behind them. Although they have no match for Matfield, the legendary lock will be tired after a full Super Rugby season. Several other South Africans will be feeling the effects of a Super 14 final and could tire in the closing stages.
For the Boks, they need to weather a typical Welsh assault in the early stages and avoid taking risks. If they’re ahead by more than seven at half-time, they should twist the knife in the second period. It won’t be the clinical rugby we’ve come to expect from the world champs, but the result should be the same.
Prediction: Boks by 10
Springboks - 15 Frans Steyn, 14 Gio Aplon, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Juan de Jongh, 11 Odwa Ndungane, 10 Ruan Pienaar, 9 Ricky Januarie, 8 Joe van Niekerk, 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 BJ Botha, 2 John Smit (c), 1 CJ van der Linde.
Subs: Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Alistair Hargreaves, 19 Ryan Kankowski, 20 Meyer Bosman, 21 Zane Kirchner, 22 Bjorn Basson.
Wales – 15 Lee Byrne; 14 Leigh Halfpenny, 13 James Hook, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Tom Prydie; 10 Stephen Jones, 9 Mike Phillips; 8 Ryan Jones (c), 7 Sam Warburton, 6 Jonathan Thomas, 5 Deiniol Jones, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Matthew Rees, 1 Paul James.
Subs: 16 Huw Bennett, 17 John Yapp, 18 Alun Wyn Jones, 19 Rob McCusker, 20 Richie Rees, 21 Dan Biggar, 22 Andrew Bishop.
By Jon Cardinelli
236 Comments
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4 Jun 2010, 14:32 pm
@Dawn(Dawn)-198: saucer of milk to go with that?
4 Jun 2010, 14:42 pm
My only wish is that somebody big and heavy accidentslly jumps on that little cockroach Philip’s skull and puts a few studs through it in the process….
4 Jun 2010, 14:42 pm
@Dawn(Dawn)-195:
Ag Dawnie, they’re not all black, Brian is more white than black.
And like everybody always says here,( aaaaand everyyy time a person brings this issue up it has to be prefaced and bookended with please and sorry and this and that bal bal bla), that I honestly don’t care if we have pitch black Malawi wingers.
What is the reasoning? that the Olympic lineup in all black so look for all black wings?
No, it was originally as everyone knows, put the quota so that he gets the ball the least. he has to link up the least, (put guys away the least), minimum offload/passing and tackling. The quota was put there to just capitalize on the hard work of the team, catch the ball and flop over the line.
The only world class wing in SA is Habana. JJP is adequate. Hougaard is adequate. GvdHeever is a little more adequate than JJP but still. All I’m saying is that we’re waiting for good black wings to come through sothat we can please both politicians and fans, thats all.
Amongst black rugby supporters, you’ll always here them rooting for the okes they regard as cool or exceptionaly skilled.
Not automatically if they’re black.
In the Bulls Sharks match I watched the game with about 10 black guuys and they went nuts every time Deysle did anything. You realize that it’s only the bloody politicians and their b*tch SARU that have an agenda..mostly that is.
4 Jun 2010, 14:45 pm
All these closet racists?
Don’t make me laugh.
4 Jun 2010, 14:45 pm
@gunther(gunther)-191: lol.you are sooooooooooooooooooooo funny!when i am finished with agile i amm gonna start lecturing you on good blog manners but that’s for another day but for the time being you can go to your corner again and think of some new jokes.you are toooooooooooooooooooooo funny!
4 Jun 2010, 14:48 pm
@Agile T*t-Tyrant(Stegmannenov)-203: my black mate also watche dit with me, but after the match he had to go finish the lawn
4 Jun 2010, 14:49 pm
@Atreides(Atreides)-206: That’s called “tongue-in-cheek” btw
4 Jun 2010, 14:49 pm
@Dawn(Dawn)-199:
hey Dawn, that’s unnecessary! He’s good for many things. Spies for example, demonstrated what a lovely handbag accessory he could make on Saturday.
just kidding. He’s fast, agile, lion-hearted (people only point this out because we have Earl Rose to compare him to, honestly if you weigh 75Kgs, and you tackle your man-you’re only doing your job, your duty. You shouldn’t get special mention just because you’re small.), and lest see what else…ummm he can kick U&U well, he fololows up well, he’s tenacious, he non-white, he safety concious(scrumcap), he’s got a good step, he runs angles like a good wing, he brings his side, he was on the 7′s scene, he’s fit, what else do you want now?
4 Jun 2010, 14:52 pm
@Agile T*t-Tyrant(Stegmannenov)-208:
fololows=follows lest=lets
4 Jun 2010, 14:53 pm
@Atreides(Atreides)-206:
4 Jun 2010, 14:54 pm
I just added the tongue-in -cheek rder cos I know that on any given day there’ll be someone on here who’s lost their sense of humor
4 Jun 2010, 14:54 pm
@Agile T*t-Tyrant(Stegmannenov)-203: ai ai agile i can see it’s difficult for you not to go the political route…maybe dawn is right and you should consider coming out of the closet…as they say the truth shall set you free bro!once again i am gonna say it to you we only need two wingers next year and those two will be the legendary brian habana and the brilliant jp pietersen.btw did you count those ten black guys?lol.julle is rerig nie lekker in julle koppe nie!
4 Jun 2010, 15:00 pm
The way the Welsh are going on about this match and their chances they are starting to put pressure on themselves. Great news for the Boks!!!
4 Jun 2010, 15:03 pm
@scorpion(capestormer)-212:
???
“once again i am gonna say it to you we only need two wingers next year and those two will be the legendary brian habana and the brilliant jp ”
One injury and 50% of your wing force is gone. no wing pair at all. What did I say that was racist? nothing. In plain words: due to politics etc. the majority of wings are non-white, and the majority of wings are substandard.Keo et al. think so too.
If I had a choice between Aplon and Gerhard, I’ll pick GvdH becuase he’s better. If I had a choice between Hougaard and Habana, I’d pick Habana because he’s better (not perfect, but he’s classy).
Questions?
4 Jun 2010, 15:12 pm
@Dawn(Dawn)-198:
Dawn, I’m unsure whether your aggro at me or “other people” you spoke of, and whether you’re aggro because you think my comments are rascist or that they’ll generate negative comments.
Please clarify. And once again, I’m sincerely apologetic.
4 Jun 2010, 15:14 pm
@Agile T*t-Tyrant(Stegmannenov)-214: i never mentioned the word racist or talked politics with you mate ,you started all this.if pdv selects your love -child gerhard next year if one of the greats are injured than we all have to accept it whether we liked it or not.
4 Jun 2010, 15:19 pm
@Agile T*t-Tyrant(Stegmannenov)-215: i think we should just agree to diasgree on this subject.got to run.cheers.
4 Jun 2010, 15:21 pm
@scorpion(capestormer)-216:
Wellll, I didn’t start any fires, it was always burning.
Didn’t you read my post 186? That’s just how people take it unfortunately.
4 Jun 2010, 15:22 pm
@scorpion(capestormer)-217:
bye.
4 Jun 2010, 15:30 pm
@jontyg(jontyg)-84: Jonty, I reckon you,re my longlost twin brother. It is actually scary how much the two of us are alike in views. That’s not optimism, it is just a decnt dose of unbiased opinion based on what the okes do on-field. Cudos.
4 Jun 2010, 15:36 pm
I put Australia by 8 against Fiji and see other people on the Bru i am on put them by huge amounts.
In the World Cup it was a close thing when the Boks played them and we were a really good team, so why would this Australian team be punted at giveing them a huge hideing ? anybody know, if so please explain why.
SERIOUS………
4 Jun 2010, 15:39 pm
@catleya(catleya)-220:
Ja, he makes helluva long posts like you
4 Jun 2010, 15:43 pm
@Treehugger(Treehugger)-221: fiji play very few tests…..so will take time to gel…..
4 Jun 2010, 15:46 pm
@grant10(grant10)-223: Thanks Grant
4 Jun 2010, 19:24 pm
New Zealanders, coming from such a small nation, instinctively usually support the underdog when watching a neutral match.
So
On this occasion
GO BOKKE !
4 Jun 2010, 19:29 pm
I am not giving up….I will ask for possibly the 5th time
IS PERCY MONTGOMERY OVER WITH THE BOKS?
I need to know….planning to stalk him tomorrow, he needs cheering up!!
4 Jun 2010, 19:32 pm
@carol(carol)-226:
Yes, yes, he’s the kicking coach. Be warned though, according to reports last year about the domestic violence under his roof, his wife throws a mean right hook.
4 Jun 2010, 19:40 pm
@Agile T*t-Tyrant(Stegmannenov)-227: Oh great, I may have to leave the pub early then!!
Percy may need comforting!!
I am the woman for the job, Keo and RT’s biggest Percy fan!
Now who can get me a pass?
4 Jun 2010, 19:43 pm
@carol(carol)-228:
Woman, lie low for a while please. We already have our newest scandal with Andries Bekker.
5 Jun 2010, 10:19 am
@carol(carol)-228: I heard a rumour Percy had some trouble with drugs and domestic … Hope not as he was always a gent on the pitch.
5 Jun 2010, 12:32 pm
Does anyone know where I can see this game in the UK?
Internet streaming perhaps??
5 Jun 2010, 13:37 pm
Google justin tv
5 Jun 2010, 13:40 pm
@Treehugger(Treehugger)-224: was also not fijis strongest side…
5 Jun 2010, 13:46 pm
233 poppa69(poppa69) is the game on tv in AU
5 Jun 2010, 13:50 pm
@KevinRack(KevinRack)-234: I checked Foxtel and was no mention of it (searched up to 24 hours ahead)… hoping to find a feed to view it… Nils gave me one on the Fiji/Aus thread, 1st page… so will try that when the game starts..
6 Jun 2010, 18:26 pm
HAPPY BIRTHDAY KEO MY MAN!!
MAY YOU LIVE TO SEE YOUR GRAND CHILDREN’S CHILDREN…
AND CONVERT TO THE BULLS IN TIME TO PRESERVE YOUR SANITY.
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