Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
16 Jul 2010
The Springboks will be better in Wellington but 21 points better is a tough ask.
A reverse of that magnitude will be a notable achievement,but it will require an exponentially improved effort across the board and a significantly poorer one from the All Blacks. As much as the prediction pains, I sense the Blacks will bag the points in the Cake Tin.
There was no secret about where the Eden Park Test was won and lost – the collisions – and that will again be the decisive facet of play this Saturday.
There was purposefulness about the Kapa o Pango in Auckland that hinted at a bruising evening for the Springboks. The Blacks delivered, brutally and accurately, to emphatically shut out opponents who a year ago had blunted them in precisely the same manner.
Players and coaches will tell you defence is about attitude, but its potency depends on it being more than that. It needs to be a hybrid of attitude, vision, intelligence and patience for it to be the cornerstone on which a Test victory is built. The Springboks exhibited these traits only in patches in Auckland, and never simultaneously, and grew progressively more vulnerable to the Blacks’ surges as the match progressed. They’ve promised improvement, and are likely to deliver. However, whether that improvement is significant enough to stifle their hosts’ attacking flow remains to be seen.
Quick ball for the Blacks will reopen the mental wounds and potentially expose structural deficiencies that haven’t been remedied. If they can control the tempo of the match through bossing the gain line and breakdown, the Springboks will make their defensive task infinitely easier. Openside flank Francois Louw will be crucial in this regard, and he’ll have to banish the memory of a forgettable Test last week. Just how influential he is will rest largely on his team-mates’ defensive solidity. Any breach of the gain line immediately undermines his (and others’) ability to compete for a turnover or recycle slow.
The same applies on attack, where the ability of their primary ball carriers to bust the gain line will create more space and time to execute their subsequent plays. Given the offering from the players this week pertaining to their game plan, the kick-chase approach, which brought so much success in 2009 but contributed significantly to their downfall in Auckland, will be persisted with. Herein lies a potentially terminal problem.
While the absence of scrumhalf Fourie du Preez cannot be the sole reason for the defeat, there is no question that his absence was illuminated in light of the game plan they sought to employ. Asking Ricky Januarie to play that type of game is akin to rolling Tyson behind a Grand Piano and asking him to wow a capacity Royal Albert Hall with his musical skill, touch and flair.
Furthermore, and herein lies the value of the world’s greatest players, Du Preez possesses an aura that infiltrates the very psyche of his opponents. Allow me to illustrate. In 2005, English cricketer Ian Bell spent countless hours facing a state-of-the-art bowling machine called Merlyn. The contraption claimed to be able to replicate, exactly, every delivery in Australian leg spinner Shane Warne’s repertoire. Bell was impenetrable against ‘Shane’ in the nets. Warne then dismissed Bell five times in the subsequent Ashes series, illustrating how his physical presence, and the aura and the history he brought with him, was an invaluable asset to his side. Du Preez has the same effect.
But the Springbok coaching staff seems intent on demanding that Tyson play a show-stopper. They’ve ignored the fact that he will attempt to do so whilst donning boxing gloves.
Januarie’s struggles will impact on flyhalf Morné Steyn and that will have in turn have an adverse effect on the rest of the backline – one that includes a wing desperate for a return to inside centre, an inside centre and fullback unsure about their aptitude for Test rugby, a pivot secretly pining for the return of the world’s pre-eminent No 9, and a scrumhalf trying desperately to prove his ongoing value to a side in the face of vehement criticism.
It all makes for a messy situation, one compounded by the fact that Danie Rossouw will play despite probably not being 100% fit.
The Springboks will achieve parity at scrum time but will dominate the lineouts – Victor Matfield has never been out smarted twice in succession and Blacks forwards coach Steven Hansen will be embarrassed after his cocky assessment of the set piece following their relative success there in Auckland.
Sadly, in my opinion, Hansen will have the last laugh at full-time. This is unless the Springboks summon the mental and physical resolve and have formulated an approach that is tailored around the resources at their disposal.
Prediction: All Blacks by 7
New Zealand - 15 Mills Muliaina, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Rene Ranger, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Corey Flynn, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Sam Whitelock, 19 Liam Messam, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Israel Dagg.
Springbok – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Jean de Villiers, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bryana Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Ricky Januarie, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 CJ van der Linde, 2 John Smit (c), 1 Gurthro Steenkamp.
Subs: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 BJ Botha, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Dewald Potgieter, 20 Ruan Pienaar, 21 Butch James, 22 Gio Aplon.
By Ryan Vrede
400 Comments
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17 Jul 2010, 00:02 am
@poppa69(poppa69)-350:
double espresso this morning was it ?
17 Jul 2010, 00:07 am
@Black Panther(Black Panther)-347: I think most of us expect the ABs to win again, though I’m quite willing to be wrong
Either way, I can’t wait.
The great thing is that even if the ABS win it isn’t over. You have to win your home games in the 3N to have any chance.
17 Jul 2010, 00:07 am
BP. Nope. It’s called cancelled flight due to a cracked window and a rescheduled flight two days later. WTF? So miss the party and will not be going home at all.
Plus, trophymaster is that window licking bloke I mentioned the other day
17 Jul 2010, 00:11 am
@poppa69(poppa69)-353:
that was a great image, 1 of your better ones.
This twit reads a bit like HG to me, someone who ‘protesteth too much’.
bummer about the 21st, the family get-togethers are the ones we never want to miss when living overseas.
17 Jul 2010, 00:14 am
@kaksioek(kaksioek)-352:
Yep, some moron here was posting “its all over” within minutes of the result from EP. And noone has even played the Wallabies yet. Whether they threaten for the title or not this season, Im certain they wont go winless.
17 Jul 2010, 00:16 am
Funny you mention HG
Bloke has disappeared quicker then a line of cocaine on P3s dresser when he hears his mum arrive home
His continued absence is a great indication of the “man”
17 Jul 2010, 00:18 am
@Black Panther 348 – Gaan kak in die mielies jou nat naai … isixhosa, faka pakati ndontso, tsvebe
17 Jul 2010, 00:19 am
@poppa69(poppa69)-356:
aii, beware of ‘new’ bloggers surfacing out of nowhere in the leadup to Tests after a spanking……seen the TrophyMasterDebater before this week ?!
17 Jul 2010, 00:26 am
BP Yeah I know.
Now he’s so tough he has to insult in a foreign tongue. Bwahaha
Mummy and daddy must be supervising his computer time.
I do feel for all the decent Saffas on this blog, when idiots like trophymaster and KKK are representative of SA. It’s a poor image.
17 Jul 2010, 00:40 am
McBlack PantySniffer: Your village … yeah ? Old Texans were bad enough but these new kiwi ‘Texans’ ? wtf ? So … ok happy girls … We know you won, well done … What next ? Sing I’m a happy Kiwi ? 1.8 million of you in Oz and all ?
17 Jul 2010, 00:40 am
“not” supervising.
Farkin blogging by phone.
17 Jul 2010, 00:53 am
@poppa – 361 … get a free tattoo and a canoe … Go ! Anywhere ! McBlack.com.nz anywhere .nz
17 Jul 2010, 00:55 am
@poppa69(poppa69)-350: i’m out partying with rosso, but don’t u call us names dooos!
17 Jul 2010, 00:57 am
Transformation SPretprius but he is too blonde hair blue eyes for you and some
17 Jul 2010, 01:13 am
Have you ever met a Kiwi without a tattoo, no ? What’s the story ? Does the dole hand them out … Tattoo’s and canoes !? Every Kiwi, I tell you … Tattoo – canoe
17 Jul 2010, 01:25 am
Trans
You’re out partying and you took the time to blog?
Gees, whose the doos :wink.
17 Jul 2010, 01:38 am
@poppa69(poppa69)-366: she’s dancing and i’m sitting down watching, so i can flip my smartphone & see what you kiwis are on about…is that far-fetched for you?
17 Jul 2010, 01:43 am
@KevinRack(KevinRack)-364: he has the same kicking game as fdp? Hhhmm?
17 Jul 2010, 01:50 am
least Rossoneiri knows where her priorities lie unlike old transie here who can’t keep his beady eye off of keo, keep your eyes peeled on your lady less she goes waltzing off with somebody else while you on da blog she’s dancing the night away care and fancy free.
17 Jul 2010, 01:50 am
Trans
Yeah it is. It says a lot when you cane relax while out with good music and pretty sights that you worry about what some kiwis are saying on the other side of the world.
Just seems strange to me, perhaps if you get out there and bust a few moves you might get lucky?
17 Jul 2010, 02:14 am
Just bought my tix for EOYT matches vs Eng/Ire/Scot – incl opening match at new Landowne Road.
~tingles~
Kia kaha GO BLACK !
17 Jul 2010, 02:37 am
@skopskiet(yliad)-369: i don’t dance i just pull up my pants & do the rock-away & lean back, lean back…skop when do
YOU sleep? we’re coming through to cape town again soon, let’s share a beer or friut juice if you don’t imbibe, deal?
@poppa69(poppa69)-370: quit being a d!ckhead
i’m just sayin wassup…
17 Jul 2010, 03:16 am
Hey Poppa are the Kiwi Rugby blogs this much fun?
Tranny watch the games Sp has very god chip kick and good long kicking game too
17 Jul 2010, 03:30 am
@KevinRack(KevinRack)-373: i watched the griquas this evening man, nothing of the sort was on display! He has talent & potential but nothing of what you’re raving on about…in your mind do you think sarel is ready for test match rugby?
17 Jul 2010, 03:34 am
There is only one way to find out tranny like WO who clearly can’t take the step up!
He was great during S14 series
17 Jul 2010, 04:02 am
@Black Panther(Black Panther)-371:
Man o man I think the saffa bloggers must be mainly female, its that time of the month, they’re all in sync and all suffering PMT..POST MATCH TENSION !!. Cranky old lot when their confidence has taken a slapping.
Anyhow, to one and all__ good luck, lets just hope that this is a good clean game of fantastic rugby!!
17 Jul 2010, 04:10 am
Yes Fannytail let’s hope there is not a lot of cheating shirt pulling in this game
17 Jul 2010, 04:32 am
@KevinRack(KevinRack)-377: Actually mr rack, Cowan should have been yellow carded for that as well if he was caught, or the appropriate penalty metted out but being headbutted while laying face down is not in the IRB book of rules, even though Bakkies likes to think he’s a bit of an ‘enforcer’ he’s a moron who has bought alot of criticism on his national team and has not helped elevate the stature of rugby at all.
Believe it or not even the other Kiwis I was watching the game with weren’t happy with what he( Cowan) did.
Good argument for two refs, one in each half and working diagonally opposite.
NZ has had its share of ‘thugs’ as well, but the game has really started to clean up its act in the last decade or so and we don’t want the image going backwards.
Enjoy the game and hope you have a better outing than last week.
17 Jul 2010, 04:37 am
fantail he played smart rugby and bakkkes did not.
All teams bend the law just some are better at it!
Let’s hope the boks put up a better show this time
17 Jul 2010, 04:44 am
This article is a lot of nonsense.
Here’s the summary of last weeks game: “Springboks missed 32 tackles”. Read that again. More than three times the AB tackle miss stat. That’s the headline and the core of the whole narrative.
Of course there is color there about why they missed those tackles. And of course there are other things too (lineouts comes to mind, as does breakdown softness, as does poor option taking on attack). But the key question is very simple: Irrespective of personnel, game plan, AB genius etc if the Boks keep 15 men on the field for 80 minutes, get their tackle stats into the normal range, and improve nothing else from last week, they are likely to win this game.
It’s not a stretch to assume that they will do that. The only question is whether the ABs can up their game to win against a Bok defense that gets back to doing its job. Good luck with that. Mils running through three tackles looks like a hero; were he stopped at the first defender he would look like a bad option-taker.
The Boks made a good team look great last week. My bet says that they will make a good team look average in the second test.
And please stop talking about bl.oo.dy selections. Any rational line-up from this Bok squad is technically capable of executing the defensive plan (notwithstanding the glaring absence of a thinking #9). The personnel are good enough; whether they are organized and motivated is the only question.
The Boks have the ability to get up off he mat and deliver the knock-out punch. The question is whether they have the character to do so. If not then it’s time to roll the credits on a successful Bok era.
Crunch time.
17 Jul 2010, 05:10 am
@funkyzoo(funkyzoo)-380:
“But the key question is very simple: Irrespective of personnel, game plan, AB genius etc if the Boks keep 15 men on the field for 80 minutes, get their tackle stats into the normal range, and improve nothing else from last week, they are likely to win this game.”
Totally correct and totally possible. Will it happen, we wont know till the final whistle, but if they don’t what are the key possibilities to them losing two on the trot?
Can they reduce their miss tackle count in the face of fast and determined counter attacks and quick ball?
Is five days enough to improve their overall fitness by about 25%? Is the same length of time sufficient to re-think and implement new game plan beyond what they have effectively been playing for the last couple of seasons?
Will it be enough time to address line out and scrum issues?
Is long enough to recover from the actual game last week and front an even more eager team this week who really want to put the boks away?
We’ll know in about 6 hours.
17 Jul 2010, 05:40 am
@captain fantail(captain fantail)-381:
None of lineout, scrum, or fitness worry me in the slightest. They are all good enough at a fundamental level. The ABs are good in those dimensions but only an idiot would suggest that the ABs have any substantial advantage in any of those areas. If both teams are firing on all cylinders then the Boks are in good shape there.
The game plan topic is a little more interesting. The problem with the game plan discussion is that you have to take a view on whether last week the AB game plan was so fabulous that a great defensive team is made to look stupid, or whether a very poor defensive effort made a certain game plan look brilliant. Of course there is a bit of both.
Additionally, as relates to game plan, the defensive team (Boks) gets to make more adjustments and be less surprised for the second encounter.
I am convinced that a defensive step-up on the Bok side will have all the AB supporters revisiting their theories about game plans.
It has become de rigueur for losers to come off the field saying that they did not execute the basics. I am pretty sure it’s Richie’s turn to sing that song. When he does the question in our minds should be how the Boks stopped them from doing so.
17 Jul 2010, 06:02 am
@captain fantail(captain fantail)-378:
I wouldnt even bother with any good sportsmanship there, its effort wasted. Every single post involves ‘Kiwis/McCaw cheating’, always has had. Leave the choirboy in peace so he can continue to hit the high notes while he still can.
17 Jul 2010, 06:04 am
@funkyzoo(funkyzoo)-382: Funnily enough your idea about an average display making a average team look good is exactly how I’ve been viewing the Boks 3N victory last year. The side of the coin that shows the Boks have never put 20 on the AB’s even when at some of their lowest points, so that argument swings both ways and I would say favours the AB’s ascendancy in light of the points victory.
I too am also convinced a step up by the Boks will have a different out come and we saw shades of them threatening last week. Thankfully for us the defensive skills of the AB’s were up to the task.
I dont think the Boks will win tonight, if they were too it would be a game that will go down in history as the greatest revival ever, but I see the AB’s are probably more primed with the knowledge of ‘how’ and will be more calculating in execution. They are only going to go from strength to strength from here and I think it will be the Boks who will unfortunately be playing catch up for some time to come.
17 Jul 2010, 06:05 am
feeling bullish this morning. GO BOKKE!
17 Jul 2010, 07:04 am
Lets not forget that despite the ABs clear domination in the 1stH in Auckland, and that boosted on the back of Bakkies-idiocy, that the 2ndH score was still only NZ 12 SA 9.
I dont believe the Boks have to ‘come back from 20pts’ at all, like this article suggests – they will be considerably stronger today, the attitude will be spot on and this Test can go either way. Both teams have glaring weaknesses to counter-balance World class strengths so it all comes down to which team can exploit the opposition holes to their best ability.
All to play for.
17 Jul 2010, 07:27 am
Interesting snippet in the leadup to todays big game (nb – Thorn has only had the 1 suspension):-
“Last weekend Springboks lock Bakkies Botha was suspended for nine weeks for headbutting Jimmy Cowan during the All Blacks’ 32-12 win at Eden Park, an act that has ended his Tri-Nations.
Thorn notes he usually only crosses paths with Botha “three or four” times in a match but admits there is a part of him that wishes the Bulls second rower was playing in tonight’s test at Westpac Stadium.
“He’s a really good guy. When you have an opponent that you respect and is at the top of his game, you want to play against him.
“He’s a good footballer mate, and often the focus is on the things he does but he is a big man and quite an athlete. People don’t realise he has got good speed and some real attributes.”
Off the field Thorn and Botha often seek each other out to discuss topics outside of rugby, such as their family life: “He loves a laugh and a bit of banter and so do I. And he’s got three children and I have four. So I am one up on him,” Thorn joked. “He’s a Christian and so am I. There are some similarities there.
“He is doing his stuff and I am doing mine. There are a lot of good guys among the Africans. I find them really good guys to talk to.”
While Thorn has been determined to rub out the ill-discipline aspects from his game, he is reluctant to judge Botha, a player with a reputation for making his share of trips to the judiciary, the latest for his headbutt on Cowan.
After the Auckland test, the two locks met briefly before Botha fronted the judiciary the following day and was sent back to South Africa. “I just wished him well. I just shook his hands as a player. Obviously that was in the judiciary hands. It is tough. You do things in the moment and sometimes you regret them. But, they are done, and there you go.”
17 Jul 2010, 07:44 am
I wonder how much that jet lag factor played a role last week
Players received sleeping pills as they arrived and slept everyday as long as they wanted
This was a method that was being tested to counter jet lag.
John Smit overslept when he was supposed to be at a press conference and the journos even asked him why is he so sleepy
17 Jul 2010, 07:47 am
@captain fantail(captain fantail)-381: I think they looked lethargic because of all the sleep
17 Jul 2010, 08:05 am
@JL1(JL1)-388:
That was by no means the Boks first trip to Down under/NZ, if any signs of lethargy detected, it must be an indication of the Boks’ management skills collectively, if you suspect they have any, that is.
Common wisdom is that flying Friday night is the minimum since you lose effectively one day flying EAST, effectively that left only 3.5 days to recover from the flight and getting ready for the Test Saturday, I would say from my travelling experience you need 4 days just to shake off the jet lag: 2 hours per day.
17 Jul 2010, 08:07 am
It’s sure South Africa will suffer the traditional wrath of New Zealand television induced citings and New Zealands famous shamelessly onesided systematic yellow and red card abuse today. If I was a Bok spindoctor I’d court the contraversy and cement NZ’s lopsided hosting nature to their detriment ahead of the RWC. The citing statistics and yellow and red card count already looks oppressive so escalate it lads ! We know what Kiwiland represents – an atavistic graveyard of bias. Re-inforce it today lads and lets send the right signals to the world ahead of RWC. Why bother traveling all the way to the edge of the earth ? Why watch it at odd hours … Hit them where it hurts – their pockets ! 2 yellows, 1 red and a citing for the Boks and McBlacks by 20 is what we need.
17 Jul 2010, 08:11 am
@JL1(JL1)-388:
the thing about sleep patterns is the best thing to do is wake up every day at the same time. if you are tired go to bed earlier – NEVER SLEEP IN. every time you oversleep or change your wake time (even by waking earlier than normal) you throw out your circadian rhythym.
what the boks did was pretty much the worst thing to adapt to a new time zone in my opinion.
17 Jul 2010, 08:14 am
@Hondo(Hondo)-390: Yep,the management has said that they are trying new methods to counter jet lag, seems it did not work
17 Jul 2010, 08:24 am
@JL1(JL1)-393: sounds plausible to me JL. Now lets hope that was the case and the boys are actually up for a Test match against those miserable Kiwis today.
17 Jul 2010, 08:29 am
@JL1(JL1)-388:
Apparently, the Bulls adopt the approach of arriving over in Aus/NZ the Monday or Tues before their first S14 match.
Guess who has the influence in this Bok team?
17 Jul 2010, 08:39 am
I am pretty much convinced the Boks will be coming off the field with drooping heads and shoulders again. If they don’t I’ll be the first to admit I know F-all about rugby. If I am right, IMHO the remedy will be to aim to prepare the following team going forward for the WC to rectify some of the glaring positional imbalances.
1. Gurthro
2. John Smit
3. Werner Kruger
4. Danie R
5. Victor M
6. Brussow
7. Juan Smith (if he comes back into some form)
8. Dewald Potgieter
9. FdP
10. Morne Steyn
11. Habana
12. WO
13. J de Jongh
14. P.Spies
15. Mossie
16. Bismarck
17. Beast
18. CJ
19. Langbek
20. Schalk Burger
21. Francois Hougard
22. Butch James
23. Gary Botha
24. BJ
25. F vd Merwe
26. Stegmann
27. Jano Vermaak
28. JP Pietersen
29. Zane Kirchner
30. G Aplon
17 Jul 2010, 08:41 am
@I am a stormer(I am a stormer)-395: Yep,I heard about that same as the sleep issue
17 Jul 2010, 09:02 am
Truth is @catleya(catleya)-396: Truth is , the politicos won’t like it but that’s tough ****. We don’t have any other contenders and until we do, I cannot see why we should sacrifice wins for the sake of political correctness. Chilli is simply not big and strong enough, especially when we need to use BJ in conjunction with him. BJ more than holds his own with other hookers, so it tells us where the problem lies, but if the magic minimum quota is 7, then so be it.
Mossie started his career at fullback and I personally think that with a little bit of work on his out of hand kicking he will be devastating joining the line from 15. WO will be ideal to launch him. I have left out Jean dV because he has not convinced since his return and is injury prone- not the kind of player you can build plays around, but if WO has to go, Jean dV will have to slot in. Juan de Jongh is a natural at 13.
Spies at 14 allows you to use him on the loop as decoy for Mossie or vice versa and you lose none of his strengths.
Potties at 8 compliments and completes a great loose trio if Juan regains form. If not, my man will be Duanne Vermeulen at 7 to retain the same style, size and balance, and only after him would I consider Deysel or Alberts as options. Schalk I will retain as an out and out impact player/reserve off the bench.
17 Jul 2010, 11:58 am
Paul the octopus says the 2011 Webby is STILL the Boks … a red and a citing for SA would’ve been handy … New Zealand eh ?
18 Jul 2010, 06:40 am
Are the Boks going to win the World Cup??????
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