Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
16 Jul 2010
The Springboks will be better in Wellington but 21 points better is a tough ask.
A reverse of that magnitude will be a notable achievement,but it will require an exponentially improved effort across the board and a significantly poorer one from the All Blacks. As much as the prediction pains, I sense the Blacks will bag the points in the Cake Tin.
There was no secret about where the Eden Park Test was won and lost – the collisions – and that will again be the decisive facet of play this Saturday.
There was purposefulness about the Kapa o Pango in Auckland that hinted at a bruising evening for the Springboks. The Blacks delivered, brutally and accurately, to emphatically shut out opponents who a year ago had blunted them in precisely the same manner.
Players and coaches will tell you defence is about attitude, but its potency depends on it being more than that. It needs to be a hybrid of attitude, vision, intelligence and patience for it to be the cornerstone on which a Test victory is built. The Springboks exhibited these traits only in patches in Auckland, and never simultaneously, and grew progressively more vulnerable to the Blacks’ surges as the match progressed. They’ve promised improvement, and are likely to deliver. However, whether that improvement is significant enough to stifle their hosts’ attacking flow remains to be seen.
Quick ball for the Blacks will reopen the mental wounds and potentially expose structural deficiencies that haven’t been remedied. If they can control the tempo of the match through bossing the gain line and breakdown, the Springboks will make their defensive task infinitely easier. Openside flank Francois Louw will be crucial in this regard, and he’ll have to banish the memory of a forgettable Test last week. Just how influential he is will rest largely on his team-mates’ defensive solidity. Any breach of the gain line immediately undermines his (and others’) ability to compete for a turnover or recycle slow.
The same applies on attack, where the ability of their primary ball carriers to bust the gain line will create more space and time to execute their subsequent plays. Given the offering from the players this week pertaining to their game plan, the kick-chase approach, which brought so much success in 2009 but contributed significantly to their downfall in Auckland, will be persisted with. Herein lies a potentially terminal problem.
While the absence of scrumhalf Fourie du Preez cannot be the sole reason for the defeat, there is no question that his absence was illuminated in light of the game plan they sought to employ. Asking Ricky Januarie to play that type of game is akin to rolling Tyson behind a Grand Piano and asking him to wow a capacity Royal Albert Hall with his musical skill, touch and flair.
Furthermore, and herein lies the value of the world’s greatest players, Du Preez possesses an aura that infiltrates the very psyche of his opponents. Allow me to illustrate. In 2005, English cricketer Ian Bell spent countless hours facing a state-of-the-art bowling machine called Merlyn. The contraption claimed to be able to replicate, exactly, every delivery in Australian leg spinner Shane Warne’s repertoire. Bell was impenetrable against ‘Shane’ in the nets. Warne then dismissed Bell five times in the subsequent Ashes series, illustrating how his physical presence, and the aura and the history he brought with him, was an invaluable asset to his side. Du Preez has the same effect.
But the Springbok coaching staff seems intent on demanding that Tyson play a show-stopper. They’ve ignored the fact that he will attempt to do so whilst donning boxing gloves.
Januarie’s struggles will impact on flyhalf Morné Steyn and that will have in turn have an adverse effect on the rest of the backline – one that includes a wing desperate for a return to inside centre, an inside centre and fullback unsure about their aptitude for Test rugby, a pivot secretly pining for the return of the world’s pre-eminent No 9, and a scrumhalf trying desperately to prove his ongoing value to a side in the face of vehement criticism.
It all makes for a messy situation, one compounded by the fact that Danie Rossouw will play despite probably not being 100% fit.
The Springboks will achieve parity at scrum time but will dominate the lineouts – Victor Matfield has never been out smarted twice in succession and Blacks forwards coach Steven Hansen will be embarrassed after his cocky assessment of the set piece following their relative success there in Auckland.
Sadly, in my opinion, Hansen will have the last laugh at full-time. This is unless the Springboks summon the mental and physical resolve and have formulated an approach that is tailored around the resources at their disposal.
Prediction: All Blacks by 7
New Zealand - 15 Mills Muliaina, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Rene Ranger, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Corey Flynn, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Sam Whitelock, 19 Liam Messam, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Israel Dagg.
Springbok – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Jean de Villiers, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bryana Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Ricky Januarie, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 CJ van der Linde, 2 John Smit (c), 1 Gurthro Steenkamp.
Subs: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 BJ Botha, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Dewald Potgieter, 20 Ruan Pienaar, 21 Butch James, 22 Gio Aplon.
By Ryan Vrede
400 Comments
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16 Jul 2010, 04:21 am
@Kiwisamoan(Kiwisamoan)-48:
Forget it, Deans breaking them apart with his funny, PIs inclined selections, maybe the NZRU knew something we didn’t when overlooked him in 2007 for the ABs post?
16 Jul 2010, 04:26 am
@Hondo(Hondo)-50: Your right it is there for us to lose but boks will be coming out firing. Well we’re in a similar situation without, sivi, Williams, Hore our three first choice players. Don’t know about the PI mercenaries comment, those boys play are just as kiwi as the next guy, and remember NZ is a pacific island.
16 Jul 2010, 04:34 am
@Hondo(Hondo)-51: you never know, Deans might pull something out of the hat. Whats with these P.I comments, you got somethings against them?
16 Jul 2010, 04:53 am
@Donk-i-Kong(Donk-i-Kong)-20: The score differential was TWENTY, not seven.
And to win you don’t need 7 more points, anyway. You only need one more. The ABs therefore exceeded their brief by nineteen.
Yes, it was a complete snotting, wasn’t it?
16 Jul 2010, 04:58 am
@Kiwisamoan(Kiwisamoan)-53:
He has got a problem with anything that coloured i believe.
I mean most of the SA team are dutch,do you see us complaining?
16 Jul 2010, 05:02 am
@Hurricane(Hurricane)-55: true yea, sounds like it, to bad he doesn’t have the b@lls to tell a PI in the face what he really feels.
16 Jul 2010, 05:07 am
@Kiwisamoan(Kiwisamoan)-56:
Always have to read your name twice… keep thinking it is Kiwis Moan…. but then see all the pro-AB comments!
Ja, not fussed by the whole PI thing… think Aus and England are prob a bit more guilty of poaching…
16 Jul 2010, 05:11 am
@offsides(offsides)-57:
. think the poach thing is getting old though, you got guys playing all over the world now, so if they want to play for that country and the get picked then so be it. Looking forward to this weekend going to be another epic battle.
16 Jul 2010, 05:26 am
We were competetive until Bakkies brain exsplosion. Damm fool.
Not so cocksure as last week with my kiwi mates even betting against the Abs.
Same issues really.
Tubbie will once again make Steyns life hell.
WO to have that vacant look again.
JDV out of position
A predictable kicking game.
Mccaw to escape red cards again.
Think I will watch this one at home.
16 Jul 2010, 05:29 am
@KevinRack(KevinRack)-59: Bakkies had his brain explosion less than two minutes into the match. The Boks therefore kicked off very well. But that’s about it.
16 Jul 2010, 05:32 am
Thats the point Tockles…
16 Jul 2010, 05:36 am
Boks will not win Tri-N with “Roll-on No9″ as scrum half.
16 Jul 2010, 05:42 am
62. Bull in Cairns(Bull in Cairns) I think he will move faster if you tip him on his side and roll him across the field.
But sadly he is only 1 issue in this potentially very good team.
16 Jul 2010, 06:47 am
Ryan
This is a logical, well thought through article with a reasonable conclusion.
We are indeed severely limited by our current scrumhalf, hooker and flanker combination and a 7 point victory for the Kiwis is the safest prediction.
That said, I don’t rate this Kiwi team as a particularly strong one, and a combined team on Saturday would still have more Boks than All Blacks in it, based on sheer individual talent.
With a bit of luck the Boks might just take this game, and the Tri Nations title with it.
16 Jul 2010, 06:52 am
All Blacks to take a close one, the Boks not playing the best players will hurt us. And by not the best read Ricky, John and JdV out of position.
16 Jul 2010, 06:54 am
@Tacitus(Tacitus)-64: Would like to give the loose trio another chance before writing them off as a unit, as you said earlier in the week its hard to judge players when your tight five are playing like fairies
16 Jul 2010, 07:04 am
@Disa(Disa)-66: Jy alweer op een van daai laaaaang lunches van jou?
16 Jul 2010, 07:06 am
@Slartibartfast(Slartibartfast)-67: Ek is nou so lui my hol hang oop
16 Jul 2010, 07:08 am
@Disa(Disa)-68: Self, ek het ‘n moerse kerrie gehad vir lunch, nou wil ek le!
16 Jul 2010, 07:30 am
@Tacitus(Tacitus)-64:
Each one has his opinion and he’s entitled for it
Question is, would you put your money on the Boks Tomorrow?
Bear in mind, the Boks won once since 2002 against the ABs WITHOU Botha, they also won ONCE without FdP
They never won without BOTH FdP and Botha!
16 Jul 2010, 07:39 am
Good morning all – SA time.
Hmmmm… been watching the Boks train…..
Pakslae not imo 100%…… maybe better by gametime?
Let’s hope for the best but do not put money on this!
Weather wise…. seems to be better weather here than at home… so lets hope the A4Y’s have a bad day and we have a good day!
16 Jul 2010, 07:58 am
oh for f.ck’s sake, now fourie du preez also has this uncanny ability to do jedi mind tricks on the opposition even without touching the ball?
we’re really stuffed then, no frans steyn, no du preez, both our merchants of subliminal subjugation
here i thought victor was the best lock in the world who also can infiltrate the psyche of opposition lineouts, last week he got duped by the all black, taken to school, got 3 lineouts stolen and couldn’t touch sh:t mealamu threw at his jumpers!
Oh well.
16 Jul 2010, 07:59 am
Carrting…
Smit
Spies
WO
JDV
Kiwis by 5…..and it kills me typing that.
16 Jul 2010, 07:59 am
carrying….still early!
16 Jul 2010, 08:12 am
Boks by 6, we will be the desperate side this week,this is an average AB side, if we put them under pressure in the correct areas they will be exposed.
The receipe to beating the AB’s is atatcking them around the fringes of rucks, mauls, and around scrums. To do this SSSSSPPPPPIIIEEEESSSSSSSS will have to pull his weight !!!
16 Jul 2010, 08:12 am
If the mighty Boers can win with the ‘****** on their back’ coach will be a testament to their inner resolve and talent.
As I said before the Boks have to piggyback the passengers along in the next few games and just get on with the job at hand and concentrate more towards the positive impact the rest can bring to the game.
16 Jul 2010, 08:13 am
yawn
16 Jul 2010, 08:13 am
@kwas(kwas)-31: during a World Cup those odds look remarkably similar ro WC 99, 03 and 07 and the bookies were ever so far off the mark there now weren’t they.
Donki I am with you bud that is the best the AB’s can play and very much deserved the win they were better than us on the day but as John Smit said it was that we were so poor on the day if we play to our potential we will win the question is which Bok team will turn up the one that can and will dismantle this very good AB team or the one who goes missing for periods of the game I say always fear a wounded Springbok. I wouldn’t take heed of Poppa he is a xenophobic moron with very little rugby knowledge.
BOKKE BO KLAP DIE ETTERS SHOSHOLOZA
16 Jul 2010, 08:19 am
@bluealligator(bluealligator)-78:
I agree and do ignore him.
16 Jul 2010, 08:22 am
@Predawn (Great White Shark)(Predawn)-76: yawn
16 Jul 2010, 08:23 am
@Transformation(Transformation)-80:
it seems to be catching…
16 Jul 2010, 08:25 am
@Predawn (Great White Shark)(Predawn)-76:
yawn
16 Jul 2010, 08:37 am
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
16 Jul 2010, 08:41 am
@gunther(gunther)-81: quite contagious really…
16 Jul 2010, 08:46 am
The ‘Fat Boys Club’ will plod around and kick possession away all day long….Plod says the game plan is the right one….
All hail Plod…..the chairman of the ‘Fat Boys Club ‘…
16 Jul 2010, 08:48 am
All hail the mighty Boers with the ********* coach on their backs.
16 Jul 2010, 08:49 am
Criticising your man Januarie. Well perhaps you do know a little about rugby after all.
16 Jul 2010, 08:52 am
SA by 10, tight five to have a vastly improved showing. AB will find it difficult to repeat their performance of last weekend.
16 Jul 2010, 08:53 am
“While the absence of scrumhalf Fourie du Preez cannot be the sole reason for the defeat, there is no question that his absence was illuminated in light of the game plan they sought to employ. Asking Ricky Januarie to play that type of game is akin rolling Tyson behind a Grand Piano and asking him to wow a capacity Royal Albert Hall with his musical skill, touch and flair.”
Hahahaha! It’s the stomach..gets in the way of the ball.
16 Jul 2010, 09:19 am
Fourie du Preez is not the rugby demi-God he seems to be made out to be by Keo’s disciples. As I recall, a certain Will Genia pretty much made him his b*tch in the Superm 14.
16 Jul 2010, 09:23 am
This is throwing the spotlight very brightly onto PdV’s abilities as coach. He is clearly not experimenting here, the only changes being enforced. This means this team is his first choice of all those available to be selected.
I find this very worrying as, along with many others, I cannot believe that Ricky is the best available scrumhalf, that WO should be at 12 while JdV is put on the wing while Aplon sits on the bench. Then there is the question of why Butch is on the bench when Ruan can cover 9 and 10. If this is to be our world cup line-up, we are truly screwed. If not why are we not seeing the likes of De Jongh getting battled hardened in NZ? Why are our multiple great scrumhalves left out of the equation?
The only conclusion I can draw is that the coach has no imagination or vision. The players like him because he appears to let them do as they please. This is workable as long as the team is winning. When it isn’t the coach has to make tough and intelligent decisions. Sending the same malfunctioning formations out again indicates his optimism exceeds his understanding. I hope he proves me wrong.
16 Jul 2010, 09:23 am
“Du Preez possesses an aura that infiltrates the very psyche of his opponents.” These journos are pulling the piss now.
16 Jul 2010, 09:25 am
Ricky should get booted, meisiekind moved to the bench while JDiv moved back alongside JF.
Why is BJ on the bench? He should either start or not be in the team, he is not an impact player. Why not have Beast on the bench? He could add some much need physicality come the second half.
I would play Pienaar at scrumhalf, Jdiv at 12 and F Hougard at wing. I would replace CJ with BJ and have Beast as prop sub on the bench. Also I would have Tiaan Liebenberg on the bench instead of Chillyboy (just to small at hooker). Also I would fly over F Steyn immediatly as we need a better kicker at FB!
16 Jul 2010, 09:27 am
boring
16 Jul 2010, 09:30 am
It is a cunning plan.
The more irritating coloureds we choose, the more the boere will lose their exalted inlated opinions of themselves on the rugby field.
And it’s working!
Up yours, boere!
16 Jul 2010, 09:31 am
What was I saying about flamers..
16 Jul 2010, 09:31 am
@ultra vires(ultra vires)-7: Agreed – I predict a whitewash against the Boks on tour and probably at least 1 loss on home soil. The boys are going down this Tri Nations due to players being out of place, best players being out to injury, insistence on playing under par and out of form players. And PDV wont fix it after this cos he will still blindly believe he´s right and all of us are wrong.
Still want to know what – Jannie Du Plessis, John Smit, Schalk Burger, Chilliboy Ralepelle, Ricky Januarie, Butch James, Wynand Olivier and Zane Kirchner are doing in the team.
And Jean de Villiers better sort himself out pronto otherwise he can join that list. Man has to be given a chance at 12 again. Bloody ridiculous. Why dont they play bloody Ricky at hooker? Be less of a liability at least.
16 Jul 2010, 09:32 am
We have known ever since his appointment that Puppet is not a good enough coach for the Boks crikey even his boss Mr Hoskins on his appointment said Puppet was selected for his ethnicity not his rugby acumen. Now don’t get me wrong I have no problem with his ethnicity I just think that if we had to have a non white coach there are several better options Alastair Coetzee for one, he has transformed WP and Stormers rugby and I am not blaming Puppet alone I think Muir and Gold are out of their depths as well. If we act decisively it is not to late to fire the lot and get in a coaching staff with the ability to defend our world cup with the talent pool at their disposal
16 Jul 2010, 09:34 am
@Predawn (Great White Shark)(Predawn)-96:
Truth hurts, doesn’t it.
16 Jul 2010, 09:36 am
@Predawn (Great White Shark)(Predawn)-96:
Stirring with wit is entertaining
Dull, repetative stirring is well, plain dull and repetative
Please up your game
Thank you
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