Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
16 Jul 2010
The Springboks will be better in Wellington but 21 points better is a tough ask.
A reverse of that magnitude will be a notable achievement,but it will require an exponentially improved effort across the board and a significantly poorer one from the All Blacks. As much as the prediction pains, I sense the Blacks will bag the points in the Cake Tin.
There was no secret about where the Eden Park Test was won and lost – the collisions – and that will again be the decisive facet of play this Saturday.
There was purposefulness about the Kapa o Pango in Auckland that hinted at a bruising evening for the Springboks. The Blacks delivered, brutally and accurately, to emphatically shut out opponents who a year ago had blunted them in precisely the same manner.
Players and coaches will tell you defence is about attitude, but its potency depends on it being more than that. It needs to be a hybrid of attitude, vision, intelligence and patience for it to be the cornerstone on which a Test victory is built. The Springboks exhibited these traits only in patches in Auckland, and never simultaneously, and grew progressively more vulnerable to the Blacks’ surges as the match progressed. They’ve promised improvement, and are likely to deliver. However, whether that improvement is significant enough to stifle their hosts’ attacking flow remains to be seen.
Quick ball for the Blacks will reopen the mental wounds and potentially expose structural deficiencies that haven’t been remedied. If they can control the tempo of the match through bossing the gain line and breakdown, the Springboks will make their defensive task infinitely easier. Openside flank Francois Louw will be crucial in this regard, and he’ll have to banish the memory of a forgettable Test last week. Just how influential he is will rest largely on his team-mates’ defensive solidity. Any breach of the gain line immediately undermines his (and others’) ability to compete for a turnover or recycle slow.
The same applies on attack, where the ability of their primary ball carriers to bust the gain line will create more space and time to execute their subsequent plays. Given the offering from the players this week pertaining to their game plan, the kick-chase approach, which brought so much success in 2009 but contributed significantly to their downfall in Auckland, will be persisted with. Herein lies a potentially terminal problem.
While the absence of scrumhalf Fourie du Preez cannot be the sole reason for the defeat, there is no question that his absence was illuminated in light of the game plan they sought to employ. Asking Ricky Januarie to play that type of game is akin to rolling Tyson behind a Grand Piano and asking him to wow a capacity Royal Albert Hall with his musical skill, touch and flair.
Furthermore, and herein lies the value of the world’s greatest players, Du Preez possesses an aura that infiltrates the very psyche of his opponents. Allow me to illustrate. In 2005, English cricketer Ian Bell spent countless hours facing a state-of-the-art bowling machine called Merlyn. The contraption claimed to be able to replicate, exactly, every delivery in Australian leg spinner Shane Warne’s repertoire. Bell was impenetrable against ‘Shane’ in the nets. Warne then dismissed Bell five times in the subsequent Ashes series, illustrating how his physical presence, and the aura and the history he brought with him, was an invaluable asset to his side. Du Preez has the same effect.
But the Springbok coaching staff seems intent on demanding that Tyson play a show-stopper. They’ve ignored the fact that he will attempt to do so whilst donning boxing gloves.
Januarie’s struggles will impact on flyhalf Morné Steyn and that will have in turn have an adverse effect on the rest of the backline – one that includes a wing desperate for a return to inside centre, an inside centre and fullback unsure about their aptitude for Test rugby, a pivot secretly pining for the return of the world’s pre-eminent No 9, and a scrumhalf trying desperately to prove his ongoing value to a side in the face of vehement criticism.
It all makes for a messy situation, one compounded by the fact that Danie Rossouw will play despite probably not being 100% fit.
The Springboks will achieve parity at scrum time but will dominate the lineouts – Victor Matfield has never been out smarted twice in succession and Blacks forwards coach Steven Hansen will be embarrassed after his cocky assessment of the set piece following their relative success there in Auckland.
Sadly, in my opinion, Hansen will have the last laugh at full-time. This is unless the Springboks summon the mental and physical resolve and have formulated an approach that is tailored around the resources at their disposal.
Prediction: All Blacks by 7
New Zealand - 15 Mills Muliaina, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Rene Ranger, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Corey Flynn, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Sam Whitelock, 19 Liam Messam, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Israel Dagg.
Springbok – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Jean de Villiers, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bryana Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Ricky Januarie, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 CJ van der Linde, 2 John Smit (c), 1 Gurthro Steenkamp.
Subs: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 BJ Botha, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Dewald Potgieter, 20 Ruan Pienaar, 21 Butch James, 22 Gio Aplon.
By Ryan Vrede
400 Comments
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16 Jul 2010, 09:38 am
I am starting to seriously doubt Muir’s contribution to South African rugby. Not too sure about the other fella yet.
Imagine if Meyer had got the Bok coaching post. That man has unbelievable vision. Another waste of talent suffocated by politics.
16 Jul 2010, 09:40 am
Been reading Spiro’s article on SMH…it drew many a saffa response.
Very arrogant saffa responses one highlighting a Wallaby loss to Scotland as a reaction to Spiro’s drivel.
Very short sighted to use that loss as did not the boks lose badly at the EOYT last year…against 2 club sides!!
16 Jul 2010, 09:42 am
@Predawn (Great White Shark)(Predawn)-101: now only. **** has been the problem all along buddy. i’ve said it for 2 years now after his stint in charge of the sharks.
he a nice guy, but not a good coach. rotate, rotate, play players out of position constantly, haul 6 players off the field in one go and send on 6 subs……run at everything…..look at where he got the lions.
he needs to go…the sooner the better.
16 Jul 2010, 09:43 am
This Sat competition between Piri and Ricky “which halve ate all the pies”, Boks wont out-flair the on momentum AB’s but can out-structure them, which might mean some boring rugby…
16 Jul 2010, 09:44 am
@wallabie.(wallabie.)-102:
It was embarrassing to have called that team Springboks. Springboks they were not…more of a thrown together ‘SA Experimental’ 15.
A historical low point in South African rugby.
16 Jul 2010, 09:44 am
@KevinRack(KevinRack)-59: Were we competative for all of 1 minute? Clown!
16 Jul 2010, 09:45 am
@grant10(grant10)-85: Just a suggestion…
If you haven’t anything new to say, then would you mind sparing us your negativity?
We get it – Smit is overweight, as are one or two others. The game plan is flawed, the team is full of over-the-hill types, and until that changes then we won’t win anything. In your eyes.
Until you have anything new to add, mind finding somewhere else to post your pessimistic criticism?
16 Jul 2010, 09:46 am
Calling a Bok win.
16 Jul 2010, 09:46 am
@logie_Jumpbuck(logie_Jumpbuck)-103: that should read d i c k….not ****
16 Jul 2010, 09:46 am
Typical Ryan Vrede, licking some mighty Boere @ss
16 Jul 2010, 09:49 am
This Sat competition between Piri and Ricky “which halve ate all the pies”, Boks wont out-flare the on momentum AB’s but can out-structure them, which might mean some boring rugby…
16 Jul 2010, 09:49 am
@Dawn(Dawn)-95: I dunno hey Dawn, some of those coloureds are flippin good rugby players. Gio, Juan, Bjorn Basson,even Ricky when he’s fit (one of the best). You might just send them into the laager….
16 Jul 2010, 09:50 am
“Januarie’s struggles will impact on flyhalf Morné Steyn and that will have in turn have an adverse effect on the rest of the backline”
What about Ploddy and Spies not being able to provide sufficient and quality ball. Even King Victor was totally outplayed and is fastly becoming a liability.
16 Jul 2010, 09:50 am
@PissAnt(PissAnt)-108: Brave shout
16 Jul 2010, 09:51 am
@RedMan(RedMan)-107:
He’s part of the idiot brigade on this site that comment to flame… along with Gunther, Dawn and a few others. Their sole contribution is to say “yawn” at every post.
Ignore them.
16 Jul 2010, 09:52 am
My bad…2 posts, looking fwd to Ranger playing though
16 Jul 2010, 09:53 am
@PissAnt(PissAnt)-108: Me 2. Mostly because we are at our best when written off.
16 Jul 2010, 09:53 am
@RedMan(RedMan)-114:
I hope I am as successful with this call as I was with my call last week.
16 Jul 2010, 09:54 am
@PissAnt(PissAnt)-118: You and I both
16 Jul 2010, 09:55 am
@Mighty Horua(Mighty Horua)-113:
Januarie struggles with every aspect of his game. Those kicks from the base of the loose are predictable. There is a Kiwi waiting for them evey time. The same for Morne Steyn’s kicks which were countered about 80% of the time and run back at the Boks.
16 Jul 2010, 09:56 am
@Predawn (Great White Shark)(Predawn)-115:
Yawn
16 Jul 2010, 09:56 am
I said it last week and I’ll say it again. This game, like last week’s, will turn on 2 or 3 cruicial incidents, be-it a yellow card type of event like last week or a few missed tackles, or penalties. The balance is that sensitive.
Hopefully it goes our way this weekend.
16 Jul 2010, 09:57 am
@Predawn (Great White Shark)(Predawn)-120:
Up yours, boer.
Embarrasment to your volk.
16 Jul 2010, 09:58 am
k.was & D.hale
Just a couple of facts to your attention about the small player base you have in Australia rugby union you have more registered players then New Zealand rugby union so before you start giving credits where its due (k.was) could’ve you done better after winning 2 W/cups I do///
This brings me to THE AUSTRALIAN RUGBY ADMINISTRATION being admired for their PROFESSIONALISM (D.Hale) being the best in
the Tri nations wrong do you think spending on league players
was a success MELBOURNE REBELS have to look over sea to prop up their player base and nothing has been done by this administration internally to give the locals a comp to show
or strive to like n.p.c ala Currie cup CLUB RUGBY IS JUST THAT
they had a chance to kick on after winning 2 W/CUPS
AND BY THE WAY ITS A FANTASTIC SPORTING NATION and I’m not trying to vaporize you pockets just food for thought
16 Jul 2010, 10:03 am
Not all aspects, his defence is above average unlike FdP. The kicks from the base, who ever is the kicker is in some way predictable. It just need tuning on placement of the kicks. Thats all.
When Pdivvy tried to introduce total rugby with forward rumbling and backs running, the senior Boks took over suggesting they stay with Jake Whites game!
Now they stuck with 9 and 10 kicking the leather off the ball! Rob Kearney had a field day last year in Dublin!
16 Jul 2010, 10:08 am
@xp4nz(xp4nz)-124: are you g13g by any chance?
your post makes as much sense as his used to.
16 Jul 2010, 10:09 am
@Mighty Horua(Mighty Horua)-110:
And where would our rugby be without those arses.
16 Jul 2010, 10:10 am
Januarie’s kicks were going the same way every time and you would have thought he’d change the angle. That’s poor coaching.
I am struggling to decide where Ruan Pienaar should be. It seems almost wasteful to have him as a scrummie when he needs to be our pivot….he has uncanny instincts as a flyhalf.
16 Jul 2010, 10:11 am
@Dawn(Dawn)-95: Keyboard heroics I see. Would love for you to say that at Loftus, in from of 40K boere… Jy sal gemoer word, teef!
16 Jul 2010, 10:12 am
@Die_Valk(Die_Valk)-127: At least SA could have been part of the WC87!
16 Jul 2010, 10:14 am
I dont think its a bad thing for the coach to not make any changes other than the forced ones as it allows the players to make up for last week. The one thing though – and this is the actual point of being allowed to sub – is that if something isnt working, then be brave enough to make the change at half time or 5 to 10 min into the next half.
I would def have sent Stegman over to replace Jannie and had him on the bench, then if Flo was absolutely no where, I would try a genuine fetcher and see what a difference it would make. Someone like Pienaar also deserves a min of 30 min in order to get into the game and show us what he can do.
Jean was no where on the wing last week and hasnt been playing well at centre either overseas so I would def have subbed him off last week at half time and hopefully Pdv will this week if he has a repeat performance
16 Jul 2010, 10:17 am
@Mighty Horua(Mighty Horua)-125:
So FDup is overrated, and the reason why a guy who has coached the Falcons, assisted the WP and coached a few boys couldn’t get his plan to work was the fault of the players.
All you need is a speedo and a nude Watson poster to go with that skewed outlook and you’ll fit right in.
16 Jul 2010, 10:17 am
Good article Ryan – this comment of yours nails it: “expose structural deficiencies that haven’t been remedied” -
On what we’ve seen so far I doubt we’ll win even one game in the whole Tri-Nations …
16 Jul 2010, 10:17 am
@UnbeataBULL(UnbeataBULL)-129:
Shut up and get back to your village.
You and that predawn idiot the worst examples of boere I’ve ever met.
16 Jul 2010, 10:20 am
You know what the worst thing about last weeks game was for me – sure Bakkies made me see red the same way he did but that wasnt it – the worst moment in last weeks match was when John Smit decided to go for poles when we finally had some momentum and were playing decent rugby. Now if the score was still close, then the kick would have been the right option, but when you down by more than 2 converted tries, there is no point, you need tries. Now my theory is that you can kick a penalty from 50% of the field, 60 in F Steyns case, but tries arent quite as easy to come by. Had we gone for the try and scored, the Boks would finally have believed they could win the match and started waking up. Instead we got the points but it was game over from there on in and you could see it in the players
16 Jul 2010, 10:21 am
Are you as ignorant as that? You think the power-hungry english would have relinquished power if Skelm Jannie and his gang got in? Sure they’d have been more subtle about it, but only someone who does not know their history would think all would have been well.
16 Jul 2010, 10:23 am
@Dawn(Dawn)-134:
No fan of yours, but sorry for them. Every culture has their clowns.
16 Jul 2010, 10:27 am
@Predawn (Great White Shark)(Predawn)-120:
So FdPs kick are not predictable?
Again all i see as FdP as the Boks savior. If he played last Saturday it would not have been much different. If you honestly think he is your answer to the problems then get ready for another loss. And if blaming Ricky makes you feel better then good but he didnt lose the game last Saturday for the Boks
16 Jul 2010, 10:29 am
@Die_Valk(Die_Valk)-132: He is totally overated! Will Genia and Albie Matthewson totally made a prostitute out of him when they played against the Reds and Blues. He is a typical frontfoot bully (like that 2 words)and dissapear when the tough gets going!
16 Jul 2010, 10:31 am
@Hurricane(Hurricane)-138:
Yes they are, that still doesn’t mean they’ll be dealt with. Yes we’d probably still have lost, but not by that much. He is our best player, but he’s not God. The blame is at the feet of those in charge.
16 Jul 2010, 10:31 am
@Hurricane(Hurricane)-138: Fourie dp and Brussouw are SA’s versions of Carter and Mccaw
And we all know how well the ABs play without Carter and Mccaw…
16 Jul 2010, 10:32 am
@Mighty Horua(Mighty Horua)-139:
Like in WC, Currie Cup and S14 finals.
16 Jul 2010, 10:32 am
Going gets tough! You can choose which one is appropriate for the blue tripe aka FdP
16 Jul 2010, 10:32 am
@Mighty Horua(Mighty Horua)-139:
Genia will be the best in the world the way he is going. Really impressive little player and you are right he has outplayed all halfbacks this season
16 Jul 2010, 10:32 am
the chip
is turning dawn
into a
raving
lunatic
again
16 Jul 2010, 10:33 am
@UnbeataBULL(UnbeataBULL)-129: Dont drag Loftus into this. Im coloured, I frequent Loftus regulary. The Bulls fan are not the crazed racists you are making them out to be, chomping at the bits at the first sign of insult to them or their culture. A remark like that would be shrugged off with a couple of sardonic smiles and comments.
16 Jul 2010, 10:34 am
@Bok fan(Bok fan)-131:
Actually brilliant suggestion re Steghman.
16 Jul 2010, 10:35 am
BOKKE!
BOkke will win, they will do it.
16 Jul 2010, 10:36 am
@Die_Valk(Die_Valk)-137:
Yep.
I hold no brief for Ricky but this incessant blathering on about him and the specific targeting in the most derogatory of terms, really grates me.
If that makes me a teef who must be moered, then so be it.
16 Jul 2010, 10:36 am
@Bok fan(Bok fan)-141:
Understand but it wasnt Ricky that got outplayed in the lineouts,or in the collision areas. He like the rest of the backs looked clueless.
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