Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
16 Jul 2010
The Springboks will be better in Wellington but 21 points better is a tough ask.
A reverse of that magnitude will be a notable achievement,but it will require an exponentially improved effort across the board and a significantly poorer one from the All Blacks. As much as the prediction pains, I sense the Blacks will bag the points in the Cake Tin.
There was no secret about where the Eden Park Test was won and lost – the collisions – and that will again be the decisive facet of play this Saturday.
There was purposefulness about the Kapa o Pango in Auckland that hinted at a bruising evening for the Springboks. The Blacks delivered, brutally and accurately, to emphatically shut out opponents who a year ago had blunted them in precisely the same manner.
Players and coaches will tell you defence is about attitude, but its potency depends on it being more than that. It needs to be a hybrid of attitude, vision, intelligence and patience for it to be the cornerstone on which a Test victory is built. The Springboks exhibited these traits only in patches in Auckland, and never simultaneously, and grew progressively more vulnerable to the Blacks’ surges as the match progressed. They’ve promised improvement, and are likely to deliver. However, whether that improvement is significant enough to stifle their hosts’ attacking flow remains to be seen.
Quick ball for the Blacks will reopen the mental wounds and potentially expose structural deficiencies that haven’t been remedied. If they can control the tempo of the match through bossing the gain line and breakdown, the Springboks will make their defensive task infinitely easier. Openside flank Francois Louw will be crucial in this regard, and he’ll have to banish the memory of a forgettable Test last week. Just how influential he is will rest largely on his team-mates’ defensive solidity. Any breach of the gain line immediately undermines his (and others’) ability to compete for a turnover or recycle slow.
The same applies on attack, where the ability of their primary ball carriers to bust the gain line will create more space and time to execute their subsequent plays. Given the offering from the players this week pertaining to their game plan, the kick-chase approach, which brought so much success in 2009 but contributed significantly to their downfall in Auckland, will be persisted with. Herein lies a potentially terminal problem.
While the absence of scrumhalf Fourie du Preez cannot be the sole reason for the defeat, there is no question that his absence was illuminated in light of the game plan they sought to employ. Asking Ricky Januarie to play that type of game is akin to rolling Tyson behind a Grand Piano and asking him to wow a capacity Royal Albert Hall with his musical skill, touch and flair.
Furthermore, and herein lies the value of the world’s greatest players, Du Preez possesses an aura that infiltrates the very psyche of his opponents. Allow me to illustrate. In 2005, English cricketer Ian Bell spent countless hours facing a state-of-the-art bowling machine called Merlyn. The contraption claimed to be able to replicate, exactly, every delivery in Australian leg spinner Shane Warne’s repertoire. Bell was impenetrable against ‘Shane’ in the nets. Warne then dismissed Bell five times in the subsequent Ashes series, illustrating how his physical presence, and the aura and the history he brought with him, was an invaluable asset to his side. Du Preez has the same effect.
But the Springbok coaching staff seems intent on demanding that Tyson play a show-stopper. They’ve ignored the fact that he will attempt to do so whilst donning boxing gloves.
Januarie’s struggles will impact on flyhalf Morné Steyn and that will have in turn have an adverse effect on the rest of the backline – one that includes a wing desperate for a return to inside centre, an inside centre and fullback unsure about their aptitude for Test rugby, a pivot secretly pining for the return of the world’s pre-eminent No 9, and a scrumhalf trying desperately to prove his ongoing value to a side in the face of vehement criticism.
It all makes for a messy situation, one compounded by the fact that Danie Rossouw will play despite probably not being 100% fit.
The Springboks will achieve parity at scrum time but will dominate the lineouts – Victor Matfield has never been out smarted twice in succession and Blacks forwards coach Steven Hansen will be embarrassed after his cocky assessment of the set piece following their relative success there in Auckland.
Sadly, in my opinion, Hansen will have the last laugh at full-time. This is unless the Springboks summon the mental and physical resolve and have formulated an approach that is tailored around the resources at their disposal.
Prediction: All Blacks by 7
New Zealand - 15 Mills Muliaina, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Rene Ranger, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Corey Flynn, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Sam Whitelock, 19 Liam Messam, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Israel Dagg.
Springbok – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Jean de Villiers, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bryana Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Ricky Januarie, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 CJ van der Linde, 2 John Smit (c), 1 Gurthro Steenkamp.
Subs: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 BJ Botha, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Dewald Potgieter, 20 Ruan Pienaar, 21 Butch James, 22 Gio Aplon.
By Ryan Vrede
400 Comments
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16 Jul 2010, 10:37 am
@Taahirah(Taahirah)-146:
It’s his type that fuel the stereotype. I have hard, hard boere as family, but they are gentle people who do more for the poor than the whole ******* government.
16 Jul 2010, 10:40 am
@Dawn(Dawn)-149:
It is being overdone. JDV being out of position hurt us more than he did.
16 Jul 2010, 10:40 am
Lekker Oosthuizen!
16 Jul 2010, 10:41 am
@Hurricane(Hurricane)-138:
That’s correct. I suggest you show how it is that Fourie du Preez is your persona non grata as a scrummie. He is world class according to Kiwi scribes..not me.
He does his talking on the field…not only with chip kicks but with an instinct for running at the right time. Grudgingly I have to admire him even though I would prefer Kickott but then I’m a Shark.
16 Jul 2010, 10:43 am
this thread has turned racist in 150 posts! unbelievable.
let’s talk rugby a bit. pissant says the boks are going to come good and win. i for one don’t see it.
the guys do not look hungry enough or determined enough. i’m worried that the old heads in the team have got the t-shirt and have no more motivation left.
vic, smit, habana…all weathered campaigners and they will need to step up big time to make a difference.
16 Jul 2010, 10:44 am
I won’t be bothering to watch the steaming pile of hondkak the Boks will dish up this week. Its only down from here with this kak Bok team and the deluded coaching staff who remind me of japanese WWII soldiers stranded on a Pacific island thinking they’re still fighting the war. It won’t be long before the Boks will be joining Bafana below the 50 mark on the world rankings.
Kick-and-chase is the most basic, archaic game plan to be using and against the ABs it is futile. The use of fetchers and strong ball protection is what is needed against NZ. You need good quality ball you can move through the faces and quick recycling. Look at how quick the ABs pass? I’d love to know what the AB stats are for passes received by the wingers compared to the Boks. I bet you Jane (girl’s name) & Rocokoko received 5 times more ball than Habana. Instead the Boks just want to kick precious posession away aimlessly against a team who are experts at running it fcking hard back at you! It also doesn’t help when you have a useless no.8 likes Spies. Even Habana is a harder grafter than this show pony. Move Spies to 14 and put Burger at 8 with Louw and Potgieter. Why isn’t Vermuelen there?
God PdV is so useless. So when we crash out of the group stage of the RWC (ala Bafana) will PdV’s have the balls to resign or will he claim the Boks can get better and be allowed to continue his inane mutterings becoming more and more incoherent saying talk is cheap but whiskey buys the money? I really give up with this kak of kak teams.
16 Jul 2010, 10:46 am
@Predawn (Great White Shark)(Predawn)-154:
I didnt say if i liked FdP or not, i didnt say i preferred Ricky but all i am saying is blaming one guy last week is pathetic and really cluthing at straws.
16 Jul 2010, 10:47 am
@logie_Jumpbuck(logie_Jumpbuck)-155: I agree about the lack of hunger. I still think its no excuse. The ABs seem hellbent on proving a point everytime they play. They could be playing Japan and the ABs will relentlessly hammer the sh.it out of them by over a 100 points while the Boks would put 35 past them and let it 2 tries in the process. I blame the coaching staff for the lack of motivation.
16 Jul 2010, 10:47 am
I am concerned that we cannot get our maul going off the lineout. We were outwitted by the Italians (Nick Mallett) and we battled to adapt to their strategy of not committing. The AB’s disrupted the maul by getting players inbetween ours and fracturing the unit. They did it brilliantly, but again, we were not able to counter it.
I blame this inefficiency on poor coaching. Probably Gould’s department. The closest the WP pack came to a maul under him was the mauling they took in the front row at scrum time. I hope we have a plan for the maul this weekend because it is one of our strong points
16 Jul 2010, 10:49 am
That girl’s name Jane is a bit of alright!
Born in the Lower Little Hut part of NZ (wherever that might be!)
16 Jul 2010, 10:49 am
@Die_Valk(Die_Valk)-153: Has he teed off day two yet?
16 Jul 2010, 10:50 am
@Dawn(Dawn)-149: You massant push!
Everyone on this forum has a right to their opinion. You started the name-calling, up-yours boere etc. You are a hero behind your keyboard, but you wont have the balls the say “up-yours to me in my face. Thats what irritates me of you! Dont worry…if the evolutionary theory is correct, you will be human in a couple of million years. Then you will be called a boer as well.
Untill then, eat your pap en tik, rape your children etc…. I really couldn’t care less!
16 Jul 2010, 10:51 am
@Hurricane(Hurricane)-150: Agreed he wasnt the one that cost us the match as the rest of the team were clueless. But the 2 players I mentioned have the ability to turn tests and turn them quickly
16 Jul 2010, 10:54 am
@katman(katman)-161:
Has he ever!! He’s kicking the old ladies arse. Eleven under now…
16 Jul 2010, 10:54 am
@UnbeataBULL(UnbeataBULL)-162: What low-class background do you come from? Seriously, this is nothing but common white trash behaviour. Your family must be proud.
16 Jul 2010, 10:55 am
@UnbeataBULL(UnbeataBULL)-162:
Ban him
16 Jul 2010, 10:55 am
@Die_Valk(Die_Valk)-164: Are you following it online, or on telly?
16 Jul 2010, 10:55 am
We are going to win but it will be close and will happen when the super subs come on!
The Abs ambushed us but not again!
16 Jul 2010, 10:55 am
@Die_Valk(Die_Valk)-132: give us an equivalent run down of the previous springbok coaches CV, please!
16 Jul 2010, 10:57 am
Fokkit man daardie is lae-klas gedrag.
16 Jul 2010, 10:57 am
@JR – The Real Make The Circle Bigger(JayDaFiveOh)-156:
If you dont want to watch the game…. then dont… I personally dont care what you do on Saturday morning
16 Jul 2010, 10:57 am
@Transformation(Transformation)-169:
I’ll give you one after the Tri-Nations sweetie.
16 Jul 2010, 10:58 am
@Dawn(Dawn)-123:
Jeez Dawn what is your problem? I’ve not seen this entire thread but why you climbing into this oke? Because he’s criticising Januarie? He also criticises Morne in case you haven’t noticed. I agree with him. Januarie is way way off his best and should be benched. Does that make me a racist? I’d much rather seen Juan De Jongh there than Timotei but PdV obviously has no faith in his young players. So if you dare criticise a coloured or black player you’re suddenly a racist. Come on now this is getting pretty pathetic now.
16 Jul 2010, 10:58 am
@katman(katman)-167:
DSTV and BBC. Like their coverage.
16 Jul 2010, 10:59 am
This team needs more physicality.
Frans Steyn in place of Kirchner.
Juan De Jongh in place of Meisiekind.
Dewald Potgieter in place of Flouw (hurts me as a Stormer to say so, but Dewald’s better).
Beast in place of Gurthro.
Good move bringing back CJ. He’s been our best tight-head for several years now.
Chilliboy is not good enough to be on the bench. And as for Butch – seriously, WTF???
16 Jul 2010, 11:00 am
@Tisme(Tisme)-171: And personally I don’t give a cr@p about what you think so why don’t you just fck off.
16 Jul 2010, 11:00 am
@logie_Jumpbuck(logie_Jumpbuck)-155: I believe that Os gave the guys a bit of a going over because they fell asleep in the game. It has happened before – Brisbane 49-0.
We will be up for it big time this weekend, but I am concerned about the structures in the team that has disappeared all of a sudden. I just hope and pray we can find them and stick to them. We need JDV at 12 and soon.
If we do not find the structures, it will be like the Boks under Strauli – competitive for 20 mins with great passion, but then they fall apart because of a lack of structure
16 Jul 2010, 11:01 am
@logie_Jumpbuck(logie_Jumpbuck)-155:
Loving statistics as I do I always love it when prediction time comes around.
Last week wherever I read the majority of people predicted a Bok win, this includes normal blogger commenting like us and also so-called experts on rugby news sites.
One week later, with basically the same teams up against each other again barring two changes each side the majority of people now predict quite the opposite…
Fascinating no?
What has changed in a week?
The teams did not? (Not by much)
So why the massive shift in expectation?
Do we now suddenly believe a team well capable of beating the other a week ago are simply not good enough anymore – because of one result?
It suggests to me (like all bookies know) that predictions are mostly done emotionally and not rationally. (which is why the ******** make money).
From a completely rational point of view I predicted a Bok loss last weekend for a number of reasons, mainly because of the preperation going into the test but also around issues such as the intensity I felt both teams will take into the match.
For those same rational reasons, I am predicting a Bok win this weekend.
Of course any prediction can go wrong and I am fully aware of that, but the odds of us winning the test this weekend is a lot more favourable in my view than what it was last weekend where most expected us to win!!!
16 Jul 2010, 11:01 am
@Die_Valk(Die_Valk)-174: My employers won’t take kindly to me spending a couple of days in front of the telly. I need a handy, inconspicuous online score updater (like Cricinfo’s mini-feed).
16 Jul 2010, 11:02 am
@Hurricane(Hurricane)-157:
No not really cluthing (sic) at anything. Stating my case clearly.
The controvery around the scrummie position is all the talk in the media..not just with me.
His conditioning and skills over the past season has been a bone of contention on every media forum in the country for months and there is reason for that.
16 Jul 2010, 11:02 am
@Transformation(Transformation)-169:
Oh I thought for a sec you meant win-loss ratio.
Should I start with Kitch? By the way have you read that man’s biology?. Made me cry.
16 Jul 2010, 11:02 am
@Hurricane(Hurricane)-157:
Welcome to the logic of Saffa Rugby!!!
16 Jul 2010, 11:04 am
@katman(katman)-179:
I have the advantage of being a student… No employers.
16 Jul 2010, 11:04 am
@KevinRack(KevinRack)-168:
You on the bundy again Kev, don’t like your chances. The conditions will be the complete opposite of Loftus soggy, windy, wet etc Morne will fold as he did up north last year, the Bokke have no general to command their backline which is very ordinary.
16 Jul 2010, 11:04 am
Oh and on the Januarie issue: sure he’s not playing at his best, but there’s still no alternative. Kockott is a liability. Pretorius and Vermaak are good, but not good enough to be thrown in at this level yet. Duvenhage is nowhere near ready.
We’d better start looking, because FdP is already in slow decline and isn’t going to be around forever. Maybe Hougaard is the long-term solution.
Or maybe the Tiger Woods of Rugby will finally settle on one position. But you know what, if you lack BMT at flyhalf, you’re gonna lack it at scrumhalf as well.
16 Jul 2010, 11:04 am
@JR – The Real Make The Circle Bigger(JayDaFiveOh)-176:
my my a classy one you are!
My point is that if you are not interested in Bok rugby and wont watch the game the week-end then just dont… no need to tell us that are still interested in the game, we are thats why we read and blog here
So why dont you put your actions where your mouth is and leave now…. go now…. bye bye…. toodles….
aaaah thought so!
16 Jul 2010, 11:05 am
Louis ry wipplank.
16 Jul 2010, 11:07 am
@UnbeataBULL(UnbeataBULL)-162:
Read properly
I didn’t start it
Predawn did.
16 Jul 2010, 11:07 am
I didn’t think Hansen was cocky after last week. He was happy. Of course he was. He finally got his own back after being taught a lesson three times in a row last year.
Expect this new guy Francois Louw to suffer again. He’s not the goods. The new interpretations of the breakdown would not exactly favour Brussow, but like McCaw I expect he will adapt because he has the class to do so. Boks need Brussow back.
16 Jul 2010, 11:09 am
@The Old Enemy(BoksSecondBest)-189:
Amen.
16 Jul 2010, 11:09 am
PissAnt I agree mate maybe not bonus point with this team but a win
16 Jul 2010, 11:11 am
But he’s injured so no point dreaming. I’d settle for JDV at 12 and Aplon at wing.
16 Jul 2010, 11:11 am
@PissAnt(PissAnt)-178:
Did you just describe Grant10′s general approach to rugby analysis?
If so, you got it spot on.
16 Jul 2010, 11:13 am
@Tacitus(Tacitus)-193:
Hehe…
16 Jul 2010, 11:13 am
NZINCHINA u have to back ur team! don’t touch the bundies mate soon as I am on the piss u gotta call the coppers
16 Jul 2010, 11:14 am
Only thing that scares me is that my predictions last week and this week is exactly the same as what Keo’s was/is…
16 Jul 2010, 11:14 am
@PissAnt(PissAnt)-178:
I thought we’d lose by more to be honest. I fear for us this week. Could get ugly.
16 Jul 2010, 11:15 am
@KevinRack(KevinRack)-195:
LOL fair enough, yip you do thats why we are all on this site, the game will be much closer but the conditions will suit the Ab’s more than the Bokke.
16 Jul 2010, 11:16 am
@Die_Valk(Die_Valk)-192:
Aplon has slotted in well at the 15 man game. He’s so fast he doesn’t need to worry about being tackled.
de Villiers is needed in the midfield sooner rather than later.
16 Jul 2010, 11:16 am
@Taahirah(Taahirah)-146: I never said that Bulls supporters are racist. They will, however stand up for themselves when they’re insulted, like the boere was. This is not a racial thing. Its one person, with no braincells, trying to stir **** with racial remarks.
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