Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
16 Jul 2010
The Springboks will be better in Wellington but 21 points better is a tough ask.
A reverse of that magnitude will be a notable achievement,but it will require an exponentially improved effort across the board and a significantly poorer one from the All Blacks. As much as the prediction pains, I sense the Blacks will bag the points in the Cake Tin.
There was no secret about where the Eden Park Test was won and lost – the collisions – and that will again be the decisive facet of play this Saturday.
There was purposefulness about the Kapa o Pango in Auckland that hinted at a bruising evening for the Springboks. The Blacks delivered, brutally and accurately, to emphatically shut out opponents who a year ago had blunted them in precisely the same manner.
Players and coaches will tell you defence is about attitude, but its potency depends on it being more than that. It needs to be a hybrid of attitude, vision, intelligence and patience for it to be the cornerstone on which a Test victory is built. The Springboks exhibited these traits only in patches in Auckland, and never simultaneously, and grew progressively more vulnerable to the Blacks’ surges as the match progressed. They’ve promised improvement, and are likely to deliver. However, whether that improvement is significant enough to stifle their hosts’ attacking flow remains to be seen.
Quick ball for the Blacks will reopen the mental wounds and potentially expose structural deficiencies that haven’t been remedied. If they can control the tempo of the match through bossing the gain line and breakdown, the Springboks will make their defensive task infinitely easier. Openside flank Francois Louw will be crucial in this regard, and he’ll have to banish the memory of a forgettable Test last week. Just how influential he is will rest largely on his team-mates’ defensive solidity. Any breach of the gain line immediately undermines his (and others’) ability to compete for a turnover or recycle slow.
The same applies on attack, where the ability of their primary ball carriers to bust the gain line will create more space and time to execute their subsequent plays. Given the offering from the players this week pertaining to their game plan, the kick-chase approach, which brought so much success in 2009 but contributed significantly to their downfall in Auckland, will be persisted with. Herein lies a potentially terminal problem.
While the absence of scrumhalf Fourie du Preez cannot be the sole reason for the defeat, there is no question that his absence was illuminated in light of the game plan they sought to employ. Asking Ricky Januarie to play that type of game is akin to rolling Tyson behind a Grand Piano and asking him to wow a capacity Royal Albert Hall with his musical skill, touch and flair.
Furthermore, and herein lies the value of the world’s greatest players, Du Preez possesses an aura that infiltrates the very psyche of his opponents. Allow me to illustrate. In 2005, English cricketer Ian Bell spent countless hours facing a state-of-the-art bowling machine called Merlyn. The contraption claimed to be able to replicate, exactly, every delivery in Australian leg spinner Shane Warne’s repertoire. Bell was impenetrable against ‘Shane’ in the nets. Warne then dismissed Bell five times in the subsequent Ashes series, illustrating how his physical presence, and the aura and the history he brought with him, was an invaluable asset to his side. Du Preez has the same effect.
But the Springbok coaching staff seems intent on demanding that Tyson play a show-stopper. They’ve ignored the fact that he will attempt to do so whilst donning boxing gloves.
Januarie’s struggles will impact on flyhalf Morné Steyn and that will have in turn have an adverse effect on the rest of the backline – one that includes a wing desperate for a return to inside centre, an inside centre and fullback unsure about their aptitude for Test rugby, a pivot secretly pining for the return of the world’s pre-eminent No 9, and a scrumhalf trying desperately to prove his ongoing value to a side in the face of vehement criticism.
It all makes for a messy situation, one compounded by the fact that Danie Rossouw will play despite probably not being 100% fit.
The Springboks will achieve parity at scrum time but will dominate the lineouts – Victor Matfield has never been out smarted twice in succession and Blacks forwards coach Steven Hansen will be embarrassed after his cocky assessment of the set piece following their relative success there in Auckland.
Sadly, in my opinion, Hansen will have the last laugh at full-time. This is unless the Springboks summon the mental and physical resolve and have formulated an approach that is tailored around the resources at their disposal.
Prediction: All Blacks by 7
New Zealand - 15 Mills Muliaina, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Rene Ranger, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Corey Flynn, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Sam Whitelock, 19 Liam Messam, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Israel Dagg.
Springbok – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Jean de Villiers, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bryana Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Ricky Januarie, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 CJ van der Linde, 2 John Smit (c), 1 Gurthro Steenkamp.
Subs: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 BJ Botha, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Dewald Potgieter, 20 Ruan Pienaar, 21 Butch James, 22 Gio Aplon.
By Ryan Vrede
400 Comments
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16 Jul 2010, 11:17 am
@PissAnt(PissAnt)-196:
Ja, that IS worrying. But look even Keo cannot be wrong all the time.
16 Jul 2010, 11:17 am
@Die_Valk(Die_Valk)-174: Hopefully another SA major winner. Yes i know it’s too soon but i just don;t see Ernie or Goose giving us another one any time soon.
Make us proud boytjie!
16 Jul 2010, 11:18 am
@Die_Valk(Die_Valk)-197:
I will repeat what I said to Tac sometime during the Super 14 about the Bulls.
Even great teams will lose a game every now and then, it is simply in the nature of things and rugby, the difference however is that great teams never lose the same way twice.
This Bok team is too good and too experienced to be as utterly kak as they were a week ago.
Again, does not guarrantee a win but I cannot see them lose the same way twice.
If they do, I will start to seriously question my own belief in the systems and players currently there for the first time since 2003.
16 Jul 2010, 11:18 am
NZINCHINA I disagree we are usually better at our conservative game plans, unfortunately
16 Jul 2010, 11:19 am
If we dominate the collission we will win.
If we don’t, we won’t.
16 Jul 2010, 11:19 am
@Tacitus(Tacitus)-201:
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then I suppose!
16 Jul 2010, 11:19 am
@Tacitus(Tacitus)-205:
Yup, quite simple really.
16 Jul 2010, 11:21 am
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-202:
I don’t know. Goose has lost his mojo, but a steady round from Ernie will put him right into contention. I quite fancy him to come good in the weather over the weekend.
16 Jul 2010, 11:24 am
@PissAnt(PissAnt)-203:
Fair point. I’d question the D i c k, Gold and de Villers combo more than anything else. Both our assistant coaches are proven failures as well so there is need for a considerable shake-up.
16 Jul 2010, 11:25 am
@PissAnt(PissAnt)-203:
I agree with your overall point. And I also feel we will win this weekend, which will totally turn the Tri Nations picture on its head, as WE will then be in the dominant position, having won away from home.
But I do feel there are signficant deficiencies that have gotten worse rather than improved since last year.
1. John Smit is even worse than he was last year. He should not be there.
2. January is a major problem at no.9. Sorry, but we just cannot get away from that. I repeat my statement that we have about 3 scrumhalves in SA better than the best All Black scrummie. And yet, the second best All Black scrummie is playing on Saturday, but he will STILL be better than the guy we have running out at number 9. That is just a ridiculous situation.
2. We need to sort out our loose forward combination by adding a true fetcher into the mix. If that means Schalk Burger has to drop to the bench, then so be it. But he is not a true no.6. Most likely, it will means Burger moving to no.7 and a fetcher moving into the no.6 position. At the moment, Stegman seems to be the only guy fitting the bill, with Brussouw not available.
3. We need a stronger bench that can actually have a positive impact in the second half. And here I mean the forwards replacemetns in particular. And the hooker replacement in double particular.
Those are the 3 most crucial areas that require immediate attention. Do that, and we can win this Tri Nations trophy for a second year running.
16 Jul 2010, 11:26 am
As our rugby continues to decline how do we stand a chance. We prepare to be taught another lesson in Wellington.
16 Jul 2010, 11:28 am
@PissAnt(PissAnt)-203:
Good point but lets not forget the 09′ Tri nations was the only period where the Bokke have dominated completely against NZ for a very long time so this is not new territory to be honest last year has put huge expectation on this side to beat NZ everytime they play them history tells us thats just not going to happen. All the comments have been on here about how the Bokke are too good to be beaten twicwe etc etc but the facts remain NZ has dominated the Bokke for so long so it is not more likely they will bounce back and win?
16 Jul 2010, 11:32 am
Wellington Whodunnit
Springbok preparations for the second test against the All Blacks in Wellington have taken a turn for the worse due to a series of midnight raids on the fridge in the team room.
Padlocks are usually placed on the fridge overnight in an effort (according to bok management) to prevent revenge food poisoning attacks by radical kiwi fundamentalists. Peter de Villiers described what he regarded as a very real threat-
“look before we left the Department of Imternational Co-operation warned us that radical al Qaeda cells were operating in New Zealand and that the boks would present a significant target. I mean obviously the boys love their food, just look at them.”
However inside sources who refuse to be named tell a different story. They claim that the break ins are the work of a shadowy cabal of bok senior players known as the Fat Boys Club.
Little is known of this clubs activities apart from their love of late night snacking and their ability to coach the boks in their spare time.
Bok wardrobe and makeup artist D idk “Tracy” Muir strongly rejected these claims saying “that’s nonsense. The guys are gutted I mean Rilki had a half eaten gatsby in there that means the world to him. He’d been saving it for a special occasion. Guthro has lost some mocha cupcakes that his wife had made and Cj’s ouma’s legendary koeksisters have disappeared.”
When approached for comment on the alleged Fat Boys Club bok skipper “little” John Smit could only manage a discreet burp. De Villiers rushed to his defence by saying that the skipper had held his team together during this testing time remarking wisely that ” you can look a gift horse in the mouth but you can’t male him drink water”.
Investigations continue and several boks have been looking visibly gaunt during the week. One thing is for sure, the boys in green have a mountain to climb as they look to get their campaign back on track. Fresh supplies have been couriered from home but will only reach the boks after the crucial Wellington encounter.
16 Jul 2010, 11:35 am
@Tacitus(Tacitus)-210:
1. I have been calling for John Smit to be sent on an extensive rest and rehabilitation program if we are serious to have him make it and captain the World Cup Boks next year.
2. Contrary to popular belief I have never been a Januarie fan, the only reason I can live with his selection is of course the absence of FDP firstly, and secondly for the fact that no scrummy has shown anything special in the Super 14 to suggest we have anything better at test level. Januarie got the call because of his experience at this level – and I said earlier in the week given his performances which were not hondkak (media blew this out of proportion) in the first 4 tests of the year I believe it is time for PDV to give another guy a shot to compete for the vacant #2 scrummy spot because in 4 tests Januarie did not make this his own. I am however in serious doubt if Ruan is this man (the most likely replacement) as I believe he is no-where near where he should be mentally for this game.
3. We are all on about the massive void FDP left in the team, but let me tell you another player as important that is not there at the moment is Juan. You know my theories on the specialist fetcher role and I still stick by it. For now Louw is not doing to badly but I agree the balance is not quite right.
4. I have never seen a Bok bench selected to have an impact on the game – we always talk about splits between forwards and backs but I would love to one day see us talking about splits on the bench with regards to positions on the bench selected for cover (possible injuries in key positions) and IMPACT players.
16 Jul 2010, 11:36 am
@gunther(gunther)-213:
HA HA HA. Don’t diss koeksisters you *******.
16 Jul 2010, 11:38 am
@PissAnt(PissAnt)-214:
Spot on, but Juan needs a few games before he’ll be physicaaly ready.
16 Jul 2010, 11:38 am
@Die_Valk(Die_Valk)-181: his what? Biology!!!!!!
no, don’t worry about kitch, give us the immediate former coach, start around 1997, what was he doing?
16 Jul 2010, 11:38 am
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA)-212:
The margins between the teams are so small, and yes that is why we call it predictions and not fact.
To expect a win is to belief there is a dominance of one team over the other and that is simply not the case anymore. It was for a long time, no-one will argue that but not anymore.
SA caught up in Super rugby and test rugby and both teams and countries are pretty equal where one bounce of the ball, or one call can decide a test match.
And this is what I love about test rugby, now it becomes a battle of the top two inches of the human anatomy and not the gap in levels of skills or talent between the teams.
16 Jul 2010, 11:39 am
The reliance on Smit is exacerbated by the fact that the reserve hooker cannot even make the Bulls bench.
So we have a double whammy on that front.
MAJOR weakness.
16 Jul 2010, 11:41 am
@Transformation(Transformation)-217:
**** all. You know and I know you have a point, but that doesn’t make PDV any better than he is.
16 Jul 2010, 11:42 am
@Tacitus(Tacitus)-219:
The coaching staff is making a massive mistake in Smit if it is to be believed that he is a hooker exclusively now again and they expect him to regain his conditioning for that through matches.
I regard this as pretty average man-management.
16 Jul 2010, 11:42 am
@Transformation(Transformation)-217:
Fine, biography. Multi-tasking male here, jeesh.
16 Jul 2010, 11:43 am
@Die_Valk(Die_Valk)-222:
Too much sport.
16 Jul 2010, 11:47 am
@gunther(gunther)-213:
i can’t
believe it
on the
other
hand
i can
who
was the
thief
then
ricki
or john
16 Jul 2010, 11:48 am
@PissAnt(PissAnt)-221:
Unlike the number 9 situation, we have hookers experienced and good enough to take his place currently while he is off on an extensive re-conditioning program.
16 Jul 2010, 11:59 am
@gunther(gunther)-213: No use flogging a dead horse in the case of Ricky and John. Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum. The trio would be complete were Humpty Dumbty Frans Steyn there. All we need is a big *** guy and they would be the Teletubbies
16 Jul 2010, 12:00 pm
@Tacitus(Tacitus)-210: I agree with your points, with the exception of Steggman. I don;t see him offering any more than FLO, but I do agree that the combination in the loose forwards is wrong.
Some of the confusion come in in that Schalk wears 6 but does more of a 7′s job, and vica versa. I like Potgieter as a 7, with Flo at 6, which is a truer reflection of his role. I think Potgieter would compliment FLO better, who is a better bet as a fetcher IMO.
I re-iterate my views on Pierre. Great athlete but needs to get his hand more dirty. He’s not excused the rough stuff just because he is good at other things (which he is). He’s a forward and they all have to get stuck in.
16 Jul 2010, 12:01 pm
@PissAnt(PissAnt)-225: Any tips on where to get hold of those “good and experienced hookers” you are talking about?
16 Jul 2010, 12:01 pm
@GI POT(GI POT)-226: *** = g a y
16 Jul 2010, 12:02 pm
Have to say I don’t think it’s feasable to employ a game plan that is so heavily reliant on one player. Asking for trouble.
16 Jul 2010, 12:02 pm
@GI POT(GI POT)-228:
Getting hold of them as you believe we don’t have any currently?
16 Jul 2010, 12:02 pm
@GI POT(GI POT)-228: Kings Cross
16 Jul 2010, 12:04 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-227: Flo and Burger were awesome in the S14 as a combo. Could it be that they had an 8 that is a physical monster who played with them? I fail to see how numbers on a player’s back can confuse them? Surely they do not have to be reminded about the no on their back to know what they have to do. I know they say that forwards are dumb, but surely….?
16 Jul 2010, 12:05 pm
@RedMan(RedMan)-232: Divulge
16 Jul 2010, 12:08 pm
@Yetirat(Yetirat)-230: What I have been saying for a long time. On a hiding to nothing if you ask me
16 Jul 2010, 12:10 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-227:
I followed the debate around Pierre yesterday with interest.
I have stated my views on this in the past as-well.
Fact is, an 8th man in my view needs to be a combination, or have a combination of skills of an athlete as a backline player, combined with the mongrel of a 6 and 7 loosie.
Those two points (amongst some other points which I am not going to care to mention now) are the most essential.
Pierre is an exceptional athlete, but currently lacks in the other department a bit (the grunt loosies bit).
Other 8′s in SA with the exception of Kanko leans more towards the grunt bit but are not close to the athleticism of Pierre.
So it is a call of balance and what you prefer in your team at any specific time and the style you employ.
The positive thing for Pierre is that the carthorses out there (nothing wrong with being a carthorse and I am not using it in a derogatory term) is that you cannot coach a carthorse to become an athlete, but you can coach an athlete the skills of a carthorse – the only thing Pierre needs to do is make the mental shift and then find a balance in his play dependent on the situation he plays in.
It is for that reason I will persist with him but if at times I need the hard grunt buggers then it will be a horses for courses selection of course.
Between Kanko and Pierre being similar, Pierre is simply the better athlete at the moment.
16 Jul 2010, 12:11 pm
@PissAnt(PissAnt)-236:
It is also for that reason I will only consider one real option for 8th man with the eye on the World Cup.
Joe van Niekerk who in my view, is the most balanced wrt my post above.
16 Jul 2010, 12:13 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-227:
I agree with most of your post.
However, in my mind there is a fundamental difference between Francois Louw on the one hand, and the likes of Brussouw and Stegman – and even Potgieter – on the other.
Brussouw and Stegman’s speciality is to tackle the player, and then get up as quickly as possible, show the daylight thingy, and immediately contest for the ball. In other words, they serve both a defensive purpose, and a turnover role.
Louw, on the other hand, seems to wait just off the tackle point for someone ELSE to make the tackle, and then he darts in and steals the ball because he is on his feet while the tackled player is on the ground.
Major difference. in a Bok team where Smit is never in a position to make the tackle and where you have an eigthman that is not suited primarily to a defensive role, Flo is a luxury.
Guys like Spies now DO make more tackles, to fill the gap – as was evidenced by the stats from Saturday’s game where Spies made more tackles than Louw – but that removes their effectiveness in their primary roles. And it STILL did not allow Louw to make a SINGLE TURNOVER in the entire game.
So in this context, I would prefer a Stegman, Potgieter and of course Brussouw, who is a breakdown specialist who also does the hard work, and don’t just swoop into the tackle area after the tackle has been made to try and snatch the ball.
Anyway, that’s my analysis of the situation.
16 Jul 2010, 12:15 pm
@GI POT(GI POT)-233: Yes they did, and i’m not referring to them being confused, but rather people who watch them. They judge the performance based on their pre-conceived ideas of what the number means to the job. A 6 must be a fetcher, a 7 a runner and grafter etc. I really rate Pierre but was very critical of him yesterday on the threads for the very reason you mention now. If we are to keep him then he needs to get more stuck in and then Flo can do what he does best.
Many of the Pierre fan brigade regard him so highly and think his so-called running skills are so valuable to the team that the rest of the loose forwards must all be subordinated into serving his amazing strengths.
I put it that the fetcher’s role is more important, as the turnover ball has the greatest potential to lead to scoring opportunities as defences have not got the time to organise effectively as they would in a set defensive phase of play. Most top team defenses are very good at shutting down the oppositions’ attacks most of the time. Turnover ball is a different story however. And we know that FLO is very good at turning over ball.
16 Jul 2010, 12:15 pm
which scrumhalf in the country can match the so-called mercurial kicking game of fourie du preez, when you’re done with that search, tell me how many times did ricky kick last saturday?
How many times did his opposite numbers kick? Are the all blacks scrumhalfs tasked to kick as well as dan carter or is carter the man to direct the all black game?
I think Morne has been living comfortably for too long basking under fdp’s kicking prowess, now it’s time he stepped up to be counted.
16 Jul 2010, 12:20 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-239:
FLO is good at turn overs but there is a point to consider in Tac’s post in how he does it. He is not necessarily the deck player Brussouw or Stegmann is and for the Stormers this year it actually did not matter because of the workrate and tackle counts of Schalk and Duane.
It is about the balance and I have to agree the balance in the Boks is not quite right.
The question now remains, how do you fix this?
Drop FLO for a deck scavenger or drop Spies for a more forward orientated number 8?
This decision will influence a number of other things too so it is not just about the two players but very much what type of game you play.
Dropping and selecting players is not always about rating one above the other, it is more to do with the combinations you have, the game you want to play and how they compliment one another’s game.
16 Jul 2010, 12:21 pm
Bookies heavily in favour of an All Black win tomorrow. Great odds on the Boks though for those who think they can take it!
Having looked at the weather report for Wellington it looks as though we could well be playing in the rain tomorrow too – something to consider.
16 Jul 2010, 12:26 pm
Transie
Rikki kicked 4 times and it was four times too many.
Morne needs to assume more control and rikki needs to give him more of the ball.
16 Jul 2010, 12:29 pm
@Tacitus(Tacitus)-238: Ok fair points, yes the technique is different, and both types worked well this year for their respective teams because they had players who complimented their strengths.
The thing with Stegman that worries me is that his approach of “daylight” is prone to giving away more penalties, and is evidenced by the penalty count of both players when divided by the amount of minutes that each played. Last year it was definately the better tactic, this year i’m not so sure. In my opinion the reason it worked for the Bulls this year (and it did, there’s no arguing that) is that the rest of the Bulls tight five were very much physically present in the game, dominating even. I just don’t think that you will get that in an international game as much.
Anyway, I must say that i’ve been very critical of Pierre, but would still select him, but work hard with him this week to get him mentally ready for the weekend so that he is more commited to the rough stuff. It doesn’t just come down to tackles made, it’s the off the ball work in the rucks and tackle situation that is important as well.
16 Jul 2010, 12:31 pm
remove quota players and out of form players in the springbok team!!!
sa team for tomorrow should be:
1.steenkamp
2.liebenberg/botha-drop quota ralepelle and out of form smit
3.cj
4.rossouw-much better than botha anyway
5.matfield captain
6.burger
7.louw
8.spies
9.pienaar-get rid of ricky he benches for the stormers-quota
10.steyn
11.habana
12.de villiers
13.fourie
14.hougaard/aplon
15.kirchner but get f steyn back
16 Jul 2010, 12:32 pm
@PissAnt(PissAnt)-241: I agree completely with what you said and yes, it’s always about combos, I’ve said this mant times in the past, in fact even advocating Danie at 8, whom i felt was very effective when schalk and juan played, as he complimented them really well.
I’m not disagreeing with much of what Tacitus is saying either, it’s a horses for courses approach, but as i’ve said and explained above, i think the deck player is not as effective in international rugby this year as he was in the past.
16 Jul 2010, 12:35 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-239: Sorry, I was being facetious – tired of all the serious debates I got involved in. Regarding Spies – we all know it is just a mental thing that he has to overcome in order to be a great 8. I believe he can do it and he will do it on Saturday.
I am a little concerned about Flo. He needs to up his tackle rate and he needs to be more physical in the tackle. In his defense, he did not turn over ball in the last test because Alan Lewis was very lenient as far as the tackled player having to leave the ball is concerned. This nullified turn-overs on both sides. I cannot recall McCaw making one turnover, but I may be wrong.
While I am on that subject, our most devastating runners when we get turnover ball are JDV and Mossie. They have to be brought together as a combo – we lose so much on attack and defense with any other combination
16 Jul 2010, 12:35 pm
Louis Oosthuizen shoots another great round of 5 under par 67 to go with his 7 under par 65 of yesterday for a 3 shot lead. And apparently there’s k@k weather coming in this afternoon. Lekker lekker.
16 Jul 2010, 12:35 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-246:
To that I do agree, their technique does not allow them to be and they are more of a risk to the type of scavenger role FLO plays.
Also, touching on my comment on the selection of the bench there is something to be said for the absolute devastation a player like Pierre can cause coming off the bench as an impact player.
Unfortunately supporters and the media still attach too much glory to a starting XV player and the players on the bench which is seen as 2nd best which is not the case anymore.
16 Jul 2010, 12:38 pm
Ag let me just get post 250 out of the way, I ******* hate going back a page to read a comment.
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