Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
16 Jul 2010
The Springboks will be better in Wellington but 21 points better is a tough ask.
A reverse of that magnitude will be a notable achievement,but it will require an exponentially improved effort across the board and a significantly poorer one from the All Blacks. As much as the prediction pains, I sense the Blacks will bag the points in the Cake Tin.
There was no secret about where the Eden Park Test was won and lost – the collisions – and that will again be the decisive facet of play this Saturday.
There was purposefulness about the Kapa o Pango in Auckland that hinted at a bruising evening for the Springboks. The Blacks delivered, brutally and accurately, to emphatically shut out opponents who a year ago had blunted them in precisely the same manner.
Players and coaches will tell you defence is about attitude, but its potency depends on it being more than that. It needs to be a hybrid of attitude, vision, intelligence and patience for it to be the cornerstone on which a Test victory is built. The Springboks exhibited these traits only in patches in Auckland, and never simultaneously, and grew progressively more vulnerable to the Blacks’ surges as the match progressed. They’ve promised improvement, and are likely to deliver. However, whether that improvement is significant enough to stifle their hosts’ attacking flow remains to be seen.
Quick ball for the Blacks will reopen the mental wounds and potentially expose structural deficiencies that haven’t been remedied. If they can control the tempo of the match through bossing the gain line and breakdown, the Springboks will make their defensive task infinitely easier. Openside flank Francois Louw will be crucial in this regard, and he’ll have to banish the memory of a forgettable Test last week. Just how influential he is will rest largely on his team-mates’ defensive solidity. Any breach of the gain line immediately undermines his (and others’) ability to compete for a turnover or recycle slow.
The same applies on attack, where the ability of their primary ball carriers to bust the gain line will create more space and time to execute their subsequent plays. Given the offering from the players this week pertaining to their game plan, the kick-chase approach, which brought so much success in 2009 but contributed significantly to their downfall in Auckland, will be persisted with. Herein lies a potentially terminal problem.
While the absence of scrumhalf Fourie du Preez cannot be the sole reason for the defeat, there is no question that his absence was illuminated in light of the game plan they sought to employ. Asking Ricky Januarie to play that type of game is akin to rolling Tyson behind a Grand Piano and asking him to wow a capacity Royal Albert Hall with his musical skill, touch and flair.
Furthermore, and herein lies the value of the world’s greatest players, Du Preez possesses an aura that infiltrates the very psyche of his opponents. Allow me to illustrate. In 2005, English cricketer Ian Bell spent countless hours facing a state-of-the-art bowling machine called Merlyn. The contraption claimed to be able to replicate, exactly, every delivery in Australian leg spinner Shane Warne’s repertoire. Bell was impenetrable against ‘Shane’ in the nets. Warne then dismissed Bell five times in the subsequent Ashes series, illustrating how his physical presence, and the aura and the history he brought with him, was an invaluable asset to his side. Du Preez has the same effect.
But the Springbok coaching staff seems intent on demanding that Tyson play a show-stopper. They’ve ignored the fact that he will attempt to do so whilst donning boxing gloves.
Januarie’s struggles will impact on flyhalf Morné Steyn and that will have in turn have an adverse effect on the rest of the backline – one that includes a wing desperate for a return to inside centre, an inside centre and fullback unsure about their aptitude for Test rugby, a pivot secretly pining for the return of the world’s pre-eminent No 9, and a scrumhalf trying desperately to prove his ongoing value to a side in the face of vehement criticism.
It all makes for a messy situation, one compounded by the fact that Danie Rossouw will play despite probably not being 100% fit.
The Springboks will achieve parity at scrum time but will dominate the lineouts – Victor Matfield has never been out smarted twice in succession and Blacks forwards coach Steven Hansen will be embarrassed after his cocky assessment of the set piece following their relative success there in Auckland.
Sadly, in my opinion, Hansen will have the last laugh at full-time. This is unless the Springboks summon the mental and physical resolve and have formulated an approach that is tailored around the resources at their disposal.
Prediction: All Blacks by 7
New Zealand - 15 Mills Muliaina, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Rene Ranger, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Corey Flynn, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Sam Whitelock, 19 Liam Messam, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Israel Dagg.
Springbok – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Jean de Villiers, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bryana Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Ricky Januarie, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 CJ van der Linde, 2 John Smit (c), 1 Gurthro Steenkamp.
Subs: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 BJ Botha, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Dewald Potgieter, 20 Ruan Pienaar, 21 Butch James, 22 Gio Aplon.
By Ryan Vrede
400 Comments
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16 Jul 2010, 12:38 pm
@dieBok(dieBok)-245: Agree with your team entirely, but not with your allusions to quotas. John Smit or Chili has to play because they are the only two hookers we have there.
Why do you want to drop two fat boys in Smit and Ricky, but bring in another one in Frans Steyn? Ag nee, sies man
16 Jul 2010, 12:38 pm
The ruck laws have changed, and with it there had to be a change in the way one approaches the game and tactics used.
The Bulls and Stormers adapted well and look where it got them.
PdeV and his 2 coaches are once again slow on the uptake, and this year the luck he had last year with injuries and suspensions is not there.
16 Jul 2010, 12:42 pm
@Paws(Paws)-252: Oh contraire mon sieur, I think we are very lucky with the suspension of Bakkies Botha…very lucky indeed.
16 Jul 2010, 12:44 pm
@GI POT(GI POT)-253:
On that, try and read the piece Peter Bills wrote on the Bakkies saga.
I generally detest his columns but I believe he was pretty spot on with this one.
16 Jul 2010, 12:44 pm
@GI POT(GI POT)-247: yes, I also noticed that on Saturday. He took a real NH approach on the tackle.
As I’ve said before I do rate Pierre and FLO both and both played badly on Saturday. I’m backing them both to do better this weekend…
On the JDV and Mossie front I’m in total agreement. I suspect PDV is just trying to fair to WO, and at the same time sending a suble message to players who go overseas that their position is by no means guaranteed when they return…
16 Jul 2010, 12:46 pm
@PissAnt(PissAnt)-250:
Thanks for getting rid of 250. I was actually about to post a reply, and rather clicked refresh again in the hope that someone would have posted comment 250. Which you did.
Anyway, I just think we need to look at our strengths – things that set us apart from the competition in various positions – and then build our team and our strategy around those exceptional strengths, rather than just trying to be average all around.
And in my view our exceptional strengths are, to name a few:
The best line out dominator in the world in Matfield;
The best breakdown specialist in Heinrich Brussouw;
Probably the greatest all round no 7 in the world, in Juan Smith;
The best attacking no.8 in the world, in Pierre Spies (yes, he is far from the best in other areas)
The best tactical scrumhalf in the world in Fourie du Preez
The most consistent tactical and goal kicking flyhalf of the last year and a half in world rugby.
So you take that, and then you build your team and your strategy around maximising these competitive advantages. Every team in the world can have a Lawrence Daglaglio type 8thman if they want. But no one else has a Pierre Spies.
Anyway, with the right combos, we can dominate in those key areas and with plenty of other good players to support them, we can be world beaters – like we were last year.
16 Jul 2010, 12:48 pm
Many optimistic bloggers according to the polls – Boks by 15+?
Is dit die brannas wat praat vanoggend?
No but in all seriousness, I also think the Boks can pull it off. We looked solid on attack in the opening exchanges of both halves, especially around the fringes and barging up with our forwards.
One of the problems was that we did not accelerate the momentum of our fringe plays and distributed a resulting slow ruck ball to the backline. It was almost as if we tried to stay upright in the tackle on second and third phases to start a mauling movement instead of creating a ruck.
This strategy could bear fruit but we need to spice up our attack and distribute quicker ruck ball wide more often depending on how many of their defenders we can vacuum into the maul. We also need to attack the blindside a bit more and bring Habana and De Villiers into play who can link up with a supporting loosie.
If we manage to protect our ball a bit better we are definitely in with a shout. The boys will be desperate to prove their metal.
16 Jul 2010, 12:51 pm
@Tacitus(Tacitus)-256: Sure but as you and i have said many times, if you dominate the tight five, the rest falls into place so much easier.
But I agree with you on FDP, Vic, Juan and Morne. I need to be re-convinced on Heinrich, as I feel we don’t know how he will return from a very bad injury, or if he’ll be able to adapt to the new interpretaions (and until we see him play we won;t know for sure), but I’m hoping that it’ll be business as usual for him.
16 Jul 2010, 12:51 pm
@Tacitus(Tacitus)-256:
I agree with everything apart from Brussow for the only reason that I am yet to see him play under the new interpretations so I guess I will reserve my judgment on that.
The only real concern I have with all this, and where I have patience in testing other, new combinations is that I don’t want to be totally screwed when we lose someone like FDP and Juan as we did now.
A week ago I said Bok rugby is currently in a good place in my view, and I still maintain that, I just hope PDV and everyone else do not panic with one or two losses now and lose perspective of what we are trying to do.
For that I am suggesting, and hoping that in his mind, PDV knows exactly who his best team is and who he wants to take to the RWC next year and is currently only busy sorting out contingencies if there is a crisis or injury.
16 Jul 2010, 12:52 pm
@willievz(willievz)-257: Yeah we’re good enough to take it, we just have to play the way we can. It’s clear the guys didn’t do themselves justice last week, hence all the frustration.
16 Jul 2010, 12:54 pm
@PissAnt(PissAnt)-259: PDV knows his best 15, of that I am sure.
I doubt that he knows his best 22 though.
16 Jul 2010, 12:54 pm
@katman(katman)-248:
I hope that Irish guy wins it.
16 Jul 2010, 12:54 pm
Pissant
Agreed peter bills grates my balls.
16 Jul 2010, 12:59 pm
@Dawn(Dawn)-262: Who, Rory McIlroy?
16 Jul 2010, 13:02 pm
@Tacitus(Tacitus)-256:
What was your prediction before last weeks game?
16 Jul 2010, 13:02 pm
Anycase folks it has been fun, but I am off – good luck to all the teams tomorrow.
16 Jul 2010, 13:07 pm
Oh how this site has changed since last week.
16 Jul 2010, 13:11 pm
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA)-265:
I didn’t make a prediction.
Personally, I was uncomfortable with the over the top enthusiasm displayed by the journos. I thought we would win, but narrowly.
I think this current Bok 22 is good, but not great. And I think the current All Black team is average at best.
Given that we are playing away, that should even things out to a 50/50 situation.
If we had Du Preez, Bismark on the bench, Juan Smith and Brussouw – I would pick us to win and do so with confidence.
If we had Heyneke Meyer as coach, I would do so with even more confidence.
Now, my prediction for tomorrow is that it can go either way.
16 Jul 2010, 13:13 pm
Everyone always thinks that a fetcher is only there to make turn overs and steals but his most important role is actually securing possession.
Brussouw is in a league of his own and one of the only players to out class Mccaw in test rugby. Anyone that thinks the new laws will mean that we can play without Brussouw at the World Cup is delusional.
16 Jul 2010, 13:19 pm
BOKS 22
AB’s 18
16 Jul 2010, 13:19 pm
My Dream World Cup 15
1. Beast
2. Smit (C)
3.
4. Danie (Bakkies will need to prove his discipline if he wants in)
5. Victor
6. Brussouw
7. Juan
8. Schalk (Needs to play no.8 in the Super 15 with Vermuleun at 7)
9. Fourie
10. Steyn
11. Habana
12. F Steyn
13. Fourie
14. JPP
15.
2 key positions that need to be filled which is a major concern. (Sorry just dont like the idea of F Steyn at fullback in a world Cup although if we cant find someone then Jean at 12 and Steyn at 15 but would prefer not to)
16 Jul 2010, 13:23 pm
@Bok fan(Bok fan)-271: Dude that is basically the 2007 World Cup team! (Brussow instead of Wikus).
16 Jul 2010, 13:29 pm
In the cyclops world in which some New Zealand rugby followers dwell, the All Blacks will repeat their vast Eden Park-winning margin tomorrow.
For those with greater peripheral vision, this looms as a much tougher contest than a week ago.
Why? There are a multitude of reasons. Last Saturday was a hell of a beating – a 20-point thumping, though it was well short of the record 52-16 walloping they delivered in Pretoria in 2003.
The All Blacks will do well to play or be allowed to play to the standards they showed in this start to the Tri-Nations. The Tri-Nations champions, who include the core of the Bulls side which won the Super 14 crown this season and others who annexed the last World Cup, are not a dud team.
They had a dud game in Auckland, losing 32-12, while the All Blacks were in a zone to which they would love to return on a more regular basis.
The Boks lost their way, they looked bereft without the tactical leadership of halfback Fourie du Preez and, while he will not reappear tomorrow at the Cake Tin, it would be foolish to think the Springbok fire will not.
They looked a shade out of kilter at Eden Park, perhaps as a result of arriving late for the test, perhaps with some complacent hangover from the Super 14.
And while they were dealing with those issues, the All Blacks were crisp, they were intense, a half-a-metre quicker to each piece of play than the Boks.
So what will the old enemy do tomorrow? They should have held a prayer meeting and thanked their Almighty that they have a chance to redeem themselves, instead of accompanying Bakkies Botha on his return trip of shame.
Like all good teams they will face each other, ask where they can each improve and demand more.
Men such as captain John Smit and Victor Matfield are closing in on 100 tests, fellow forwards CJ van der Linde, Schalk Burger and Danie Rossouw have each clambered over the half-century mark. In the backs, Jean de Villiers, Jaque Fourie and Bryan Habana have also busted that tally, with halfback Ricky Januarie closing in, too.
Stacks of experience, though some may be a little weary or one-dimensional, such as Burger.
It is the spine of the side where the test will come, the 8-9-10 axis which has proved such a concern for other sides trying to crack the big-time consistently. Pierre Spies is a dynamic athlete with the ball, but not quite so effective when he is forced into repeated sets in the defensive line. His work-rate does not match that of one of the rising men in New Zealand rugby, Kieran Read.
Januarie is a combative, serviceable halfback. He stacks up strongly against Piri Weepu or Jimmy Cowan. But he is no Fourie du Preez, the hub of the Bulls’ and Boks’ strategy for so long. The absence of du Preez’s kicking and defensive impact is most noticeable.
Outside, there is Morne Steyn, a metronomic place-kicker and punter when he has time and opportunity. At Eden Park his possession was restricted, the All Blacks forced him to hurry his work and he was put off.
Springbok coach Peter de Villiers, his assistants, Smit and the senior players have a significant job to repair the damage from Eden Park.
That should not surprise De Villiers, who predicted this year: “We have to show improvements from 2009. We have to evolve, too, because what worked for us last year will not work in 2010. That’s a certainty.”
If his words had the air of pre-season window-dressing, they took on a new hue after last week.
Habana thought the Boks had to improve by about 40 per cent if they were to cut it with the All Blacks. Hyperbole perhaps, but the tourists have to improve everywhere.
They should have known they could not bully the All Blacks, they had to find more subtle ways of breaking down the defences than trying to smash through them.
Variety would be a start, but then that has not been a regular Springbok companion down the years. Instead, they will arrive at the Cake Tin tomorrow night with more heat, more steel, more determination.
They will back themselves, they have not had their confidence punctured. Dented, yes – but not broken. And they know they can save this mini-tour of Australasia with a result tomorrow.
They can achieve that with suffocating pressure, but the All Blacks have shown how quickly they can respond and punish mistakes. They want a double result just as badly which makes this test even more intriguing than the Eden Park encounter.
By Wynne Gray | Email Wynne
16 Jul 2010, 13:31 pm
@THEBokFan(bokfan1)-272: If only Wikus had more game time in 07, he was playing a brilliant fetching role and had a blinder in the opening game against England, Fourie could seriously run riot with such quality ball.
I was praying White would play Wikus in the semi and final or at least have brought Wikus on sooner in the final. Had Wikus had more game time in the final, we would have scored 2 tries at the end for sure. He did 2 turnovers in five minutes
16 Jul 2010, 13:33 pm
@Bok fan(Bok fan)-274: JA I totally agree – I felt for Wikus, he worked so hard and “deserved” some more game time.
But we dont see all the stats and know what the coaches know.
At least Wikus is back in SA (if only to suffer for the Lions again).
He is another unsung hero
16 Jul 2010, 13:34 pm
@Harder-Faster(Harder-Faster)-270: From your keyboard to god’s ears china!
16 Jul 2010, 13:38 pm
@THEBokFan(bokfan1)-275: Je I dont know, Jake just cant see the value in a fetcher which has always been my gripe with him and now Pdv. Jake even said last year that he wouldnt have played Brussouw! Seriously what the F
16 Jul 2010, 13:43 pm
@Bok fan(Bok fan)-277: hahaha I know, I thought the same when Jake was quoted with that.
But then we know Jake never valued “fetchers” for SA.
At least Wikus is big enough to also be a ball-carrier, like Flouw.
I cant comment cos I wouldnt presume to know a 10th of what Jake or PDiv know about rugby…
But Brussow saved our @rses against the Lions
16 Jul 2010, 13:44 pm
@Tacitus(Tacitus)-268:
“Average at beat”
Lets face it, you could be one of the journalists on here that you say are so poor
16 Jul 2010, 13:46 pm
@THEBokFan(bokfan1)-278: and the tri nations
16 Jul 2010, 13:48 pm
@Tacitus(Tacitus)-268:
@chch(chch)-279: I agree with Tac. Its like in 2002/3 if the Boks happened to beat NZ or Aus, you know it was a massive collective effort by an average Bok team.
The ABs got the collective effort right last Saturday, but they are not a better team than the Boks.
Scary thing is, the Boks have been woken up (thanks ABs) and will get their collective effort up and running again tomorrow…
16 Jul 2010, 13:50 pm
@Bok fan(Bok fan)-280: Yeah – altho there I woudld say it was thanks to ANOTHER player that was not actually picked, but fortuitously got into the team – Morne Steyn.
But of course, Brussow had to win the ball for Morne to kick it
16 Jul 2010, 13:54 pm
@chch(chch)-279:
Err.. I hope that typo between the quotations marks isn’t what you are referring to, because then I would suggest you brush up on your reading skills. I may make typing errors when I type too fast, but that was not one of them.
As for my view of the All Black team, well, it is my honest view.
I rate the All Blacks as our toughest international adversaries, but this All Black team doesn’t have much more than Mccaw and Carter.
It is not a shadow of Fitzpatrick’s team. It is probably on a par with Taine Randell’s team.
16 Jul 2010, 14:16 pm
@Tacitus(Tacitus)-268:
“……………..And I think the current All Black team is average at best.”
Tictactoe,
Richie’s little band of over achievers,
thumped Your Lot by 20 points.
Do You know how many times Your Lot,
have beaten Ours by 20.
I’ll give you a clue……………it’s less than 1.
16 Jul 2010, 14:19 pm
Oosthuizen leading the Open ! Never made the cut and now he’s the man theyre all chasing. Tricky conditions today too.
Love the Open !
16 Jul 2010, 14:23 pm
@Black Panther(Black Panther)-285: Man it would be great if he won, if not him then Daly can have it
16 Jul 2010, 14:30 pm
@Bok fan(Bok fan)-286:
I’d like Daly to win as well.
What greatness could he have achieved,
if he had not wasted his best years.
16 Jul 2010, 14:32 pm
@Panzer Chief(cane)-287:
We all like Daly because he appeals to our Inner-slob.
Nah, Im rootin and tootin for McIlroy, what a player.
16 Jul 2010, 14:36 pm
@gunther(gunther)-263:
truth hurts huh ?
16 Jul 2010, 14:42 pm
@willievz(willievz)-257: Ek stem – die ouens het nogal goed gelyk vir kort tydperke. Dis nou mooi geanalieseer en hopelik sien ons n bietjie baie meer “spice” van die ouens more
16 Jul 2010, 14:43 pm
Olivier, Januarie and Kirchner are weak links in this team
De Villiers and Fourie are regarded as the best centre partnership in rugby so why are they constantly broke apart by PDV last year it was Jacobs now its Olivier. They both have around 50 test tries total between them. Olivier has 1 test try against the mighty Italy, even Jacobs boasts more than he does.Putting the best centre in the world on the wing is pointless as the Boks dont give their wingers the ball, look at Habana he should have about 50 test tries by now but he doesnt as he never recieves the ball so again why put JDV on the wing as he simply wont get the ball and if thats the case then why cant Olivier go on the wing?
Januarie is no Du Preez as we all know but i guess there is no one else
Kirchner is no Steyn and never will be so again why is he getting in ahead of him i even rate Jantjes higher than him
It is these three weak links that will lose the Boks the game tomorrow
16 Jul 2010, 14:50 pm
@PissAnt(PissAnt)-241: The hooker selection should be a key factor in deciding on the loose trio makeup.
16 Jul 2010, 14:50 pm
@Panzer Chief(cane)-287: Daly had all the talent in the world
16 Jul 2010, 14:55 pm
DQuinn
“best centre combination” says whom – Safas ?! Keo ? KKK ?
believe what you like but you were much closer to the answer when Ques’ing why Habana isn’t already siting on 50+ tries. Fourie couldn’t pass a urine sample, he’s a natural 12. JdV is a fine link player and excellent hands, but I”d almost consider swapping them around. But Fourie @ 12 and de Jongh @ 13 could be tasty. Habana meanwhile will have to feed on meagre rations of intercepts and spilled garryowens – a modern day rugby Greek-tragedy
16 Jul 2010, 15:11 pm
Black pant
His recent article on bakkies was a fair one.
Overall he still grates my balls.
What is he?
A saffa?
A kiwi?
A pom?
16 Jul 2010, 15:14 pm
The Boks are gonna get SMASHED again with the same team
Its a wonder we have won the world cup twice with such
mentally backward coaches
Kitch for me was the only great coach we have ever had
How the hell do you beat the all blacks with the same team that got murdered by 21 points a week ago????????????
BOKS will lose bank on it
16 Jul 2010, 15:17 pm
Young Gun
He’s a Pom. Writes as an independent for the Independent (UK) and gets picked up by NZ Herald. He just write a damning article in today’s spread about cost-of-living in NZ (high) so he’s not afraid to call a spade a farken spade. But I reckon he’s generally fair. Even if he is a pasty lily-livered hanky-hatted Pomgolion.
16 Jul 2010, 15:56 pm
@Tacitus(Tacitus)-283:
Surely Tacticus it is too early to say what this current All Blacks team is.
You’re earlier suggestion that Juan Smith is the best all round 7 in the game is silly. It is one thing to dislike McCaw, but given his record to suggest he isn’t as good as Juan Smith lacks a bit for credibility.
Would be interested in your thoughts on Spies please. When if ever will we all get to see him living up to his press in tri nations rugby? He is beginning to look more and more like a flat track bully, capable of impressive sprints against lesser opponents in Super 14 etc, but fundamentally not a test number 8.
16 Jul 2010, 15:57 pm
@Black Panther(Black Panther)-294:
I would say by looking at their strike rate against the top teams that they are the best, how many tries have they scored against NZ,AUS? countless. i do agree That fourie at 12 may be better option though as De Villiers pass is very good. I also agree Habana in recent years has been reduced to a spectators position with the Boks lack of ambition in attack.
Ive said it before as well as good as the first 2/3rds of last year were there were signs that the Boks were capable of poor performances too. how many games did the Boks leak lots of tries that they shouldnt have that made a number of the scores a lot closer than they should have been.
16 Jul 2010, 16:12 pm
Put Zane Kirchner back in the Simpsons!
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