Preview: Scotland vs Springboks
19 Nov 2010
JON CARDINELLI predicts a comfortable rather than convincing win for the Springboks in Edinburgh this Saturday.
Scotland have been a team on the relative rise, following a shock win against Australia in 2009 with a big victory over Ireland in the Six Nations. They went on to win a series in Argentina, and the more optimistic punters claimed they would be competitive against New Zealand and South Africa in late 2010.
While they deserved to win the aforementioned matches, special mention must go to the poor quality of opposition. Australia were awful in that loss, and Ireland went on to lose three more fixtures in succession, a losing streak that was only snapped by a scratchy win over Samoa. Argentina have been similarly disappointing, the 2007 World Cup semi-finalists sneaking home against lowly Italy last week.
The All Blacks provided some perspective with a 49-3 hammering of the outclassed Scots. While they’re capable of catching any team on a very bad day, Scotland cannot compete when the southern hemisphere teams show any sort of form. Even though the All Blacks didn’t have everything their own way at scrum time, they still held the ascendancy in other areas. If the All Blacks didn’t lose momentum in the latter stages, they may have surpassed 60 points.
The Boks are without many of their first-choice players, so we shouldn’t expect the same attacking fluidity that characterised the All Blacks performance last Saturday. What we can expect is a determined forward showing, as the Boks will look to produce a consistent effort after the erratic display in Cardiff.
Their scrum is in for a challenge, with British & Irish Lions tourists Euan Murray and Ross Ford supplying the necessary power to the Scottish pack. But as a unit, the Boks boast the better tight five. An accurate showing at the set-piece will allow their ball carriers to build the same kind of momentum that proved so unstoppable in Cardiff. The platform-setting aggression paved the way for Willem Alberts and Victor Matfield’s second-half tries.
Deon Stegmann, Juan Smith and Ryan Kankowski are an inexperienced back-row combination, but should enjoy the benefit of playing behind a dominant tight five. Kankowski has a lot to prove in the ball-carrying stakes. Until the point when the home resistance crumbles he will be asked to play a more bruising role than he’s accustomed to.
Andy Robinson has picked a big Scotland pack in hope of combating the robust South Africans. Traditionally a lock, Nathan Hines is moved to flank to give the Scots more lineout options, and bring more grunt to the all-important battle at the collisions. If the hosts cannot stifle the Boks in this area, then they will cop another hiding.
The severity of the beating depends on whether the Boks click or not. They have played well in patches on this tour, showing an appreciation for depleting a defence and attacking from the right areas, but then also exhibiting a tendency to make bad decisions and run the ball from poor positions. They’ll need to exhibit some tactical intelligence before unleashing finishers like Gio Aplon and debutant Lwazi Mvovo this Saturday.
It could be that Scotland opt to test South Africa’s new-look back three with the high ball. To do so would run the risk of exposing themselves to the counter-attack, and as seen in last week’s outing, Scotland’s scramble defence isn’t great. While the Boks shouldn’t embrace a looser game, they must punish Scotland’s errors. Again, it comes down to decision making of when to counter-attack and when to play for position.
Because of the injuries and the lack of established combinations in several departments, the Boks won’t complete a rout in Edinburgh. They will achieve a comfortable win though, one that gives them momentum for their all-important clash with England, but offers little insight into how youngsters like Pat Lambie may fare in a starting capacity.
Prediction: Boks by 15
Scotland – 15 Hugo Southwell, 14 Nikki Walker, 13 Max Evans, 12 Graeme Morrison, 11 Sean Lamont, 10 Dan Parks, 9 Rory Lawson (c), 8 John Barclay, 7 Kelly Brown, 6 Nathan Hines, 5 Scott MacLeod, 4 Richie Gray 3 Euan Murray, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Allan Jacobsen.
Subs: 16 Dougie Hall, 17 Moray Low, 18 Richie Vernon, 19 Ross Rennie, 20 Greig Laidlaw, 21 Ruaridh Jackson, 22 Chris Paterson.
Springboks -15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Gio Aplon, 13 Frans Steyn, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Victor Matfield (c), 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 CJ van der Linde, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Willem Alberts, 20 Ruan Pienaar, 21 Pat Lambie, 22 Adi Jacobs.
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293 Comments
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19 Nov 2010, 05:37 am
haggis dragons vs flu medicated dragons.
should be a “positive” game.
19 Nov 2010, 05:55 am
Bokke by 15, that would have to be considered as a loss if its 15 or under.
19 Nov 2010, 06:15 am
lwazi kwedini make us proud! kwedini ephuma kulamaxathuka akowethu, kumhlaba wendluli ezingapheliyo nemilambo ewelwa zinkonjane zodwa! Hamba kwedini
19 Nov 2010, 06:15 am
Considering the game plan (?) and coaching (?) we get any points on the board is a “win”….
19 Nov 2010, 06:21 am
If the Boks want to be taken seriously, they need to start playing like the no. 2 side in the world.
A try count of 4 nil or minimum 3 – 1 would be necessary in order to build sufficient monemtum going into the test against England. They’ve got to become more adept and ruthless in creating and finishing off moves. The Boks should have more than enough ball to do this.
And oh yes, a better defensive performance by the centre pairing is needed. All eyes will be on them once again tomorrow.
The Boks by 20+ at least.
19 Nov 2010, 06:29 am
@Transformation(Transformation) : “kwedini ephuma kulamaxathuka akowethu, kumhlaba wendluli ezingapheliyo nemilambo ewelwa zinkonjane zodwa! Hamba kwedini”
Insects are going to fly into your mouth if you open it up quite so wide. Moderate your delivery.
@I am a stormer(I am a stormer) : They’re the number 3 side.
19 Nov 2010, 06:36 am
@TheTackler(TheTackler) :
oops, sorry Stormer.
IRB World Rankings – 15 November 2010 Position (last week) Member Union Rating Point
1(1) NEW ZEALAND 93.04
2(3) SOUTH AFRICA 86.70
3(2) AUSTRALIA 85.90
4(5) ENGLAND 83.61
5(4) FRANCE 82.75
6(6) IRELAND 81.05
7(8) ARGENTINA 80.33
8(7) SCOTLAND 79.81
9(9) WALES 77.67
10(10) FIJI 74.39
19 Nov 2010, 06:41 am
@I am a stormer(I am a stormer) :
England could sneak into 3rd by the end of the month.
19 Nov 2010, 06:41 am
@I am a stormer(I am a stormer) : don’t engage the self-styled ‘yarpie revver’
19 Nov 2010, 06:54 am
Good morning all.
What a great day….
Had 16mm of rain this week, the dam is filling nicely and the animals are looking as healthy as can be. Great!!!
Sad-sad thing this friggen Rhino poaching in SA … what the hell!
Ok sorry… this is a rugby blog…. GO BOKKE!!!!
19 Nov 2010, 07:18 am
Bit harsh on the Scottish revival in the 3rd para JC. They were awful against NZ, looked to be struggling with the new law interpretations but they were good value for those wins and should’ve beaten Wales too. SA will have their work cut out in my opinion especially as Robbo looks set to meet fire with fire up front.
19 Nov 2010, 07:27 am
@Big Hit(Big Hit) : yip, must honestly say this is not a given….. boks will struggle if they do not do the basics right…
let’s wait and see.
19 Nov 2010, 07:36 am
I like the look of this team. Probably the best starting15 thus far on tour. Boks by 20.
19 Nov 2010, 07:50 am
@TheTackler(TheTackler) : no 3, no 1, no 2 …you guys occupy no 1 more often but cannot lift the WC
19 Nov 2010, 07:52 am
Wow Scotland higher rated than Wales!!
19 Nov 2010, 07:52 am
OOP the JOCKS !!!!!!
19 Nov 2010, 07:54 am
@mountaingoat(mountaingoat) : Only a matter of time. Under a year now. But that’s the only thing that’s missing. All the other cups are in the NZ cabinet where they belong. They only go on loan to other places, briefly.
19 Nov 2010, 08:11 am
It will be a mish mash game that the boks will strong arm a win out of. Not a bad team and a better bench than I have seen for a while. Strauss, Alberts and Flip will add grunt and Ruan / lambie are looking good so far this tour.
If they click and pump 40points it will ironically confuse the picture further ..
19 Nov 2010, 08:12 am
dream on dreamer..btw what are the other trophies? S14? LOL…think it would only be a fool for betting against that Super trophy staying in SA for the next couple of years
19 Nov 2010, 08:12 am
Honestly the A4Y’s are currently light years better than the Boks and if we don’t improve radically from our coaching side… the A4Y’s will be WC11 holders… imo.
to be brutally honest… i can’t see us winning them if we keep the current coaching staff… that’s my opinion..
19 Nov 2010, 08:17 am
well hoskins and his dwarfs had the chance to get rid of the bunch but kept them…we have the players to hammer the all blacks but eish the know-how is missing
19 Nov 2010, 08:23 am
@Staal(Staal) : Weet jy van enige goeie wildplase in die Ellisras-omgewing wat night time game drives bied?
19 Nov 2010, 08:29 am
@Staal(Staal) : Well put, I wonder what emphasis is placed on our current coach staff for results ? There is no performance clause in pdv contract so …..
Sitting here today, the ABs are light years ahead of all teams. Their Mngmnt are extremly smart but cynical as displayed by Henson every time he opens his mouth, but if you want to be the best and win RWC maybe that is what it takes.
Forget it under PdV, not his fault but he is way out of his depth .. same goes for Dck and GG which is more unacceptable.
19 Nov 2010, 08:34 am
@Taahirah(Taahirah) : ongelukkig nie … net privaat eienaars.
19 Nov 2010, 08:40 am
@bananas(bananas) : look i don’t want to seem negative about the coaching staff.. but talking to some players (who are positive about the coaches) even they confirm that the line between coaching and player’s managing the gameplan is now a grey area…
screaming and yelling at halftime is motivation for 5 minutes but there is NO plan B… nada! NIKS!
I have said that i will salute Snorre like i did with JW if we win the WC11 but currently i am at a loss to see how we will win it..
let’s hope i am wrong… (again!)..
in 2007 is thought the French will win it…
19 Nov 2010, 08:46 am
@Staal(Staal) : Yes 100% if they lift RWC they will have surpased JW who did have a dream run in to the final.
I for one dont like the cynical Henson but would love a smarter group leading the Boks. On another thread I mentioned the thought of these guys in charge of the 2003 squad !!! Now that is scary …
19 Nov 2010, 08:51 am
ive got a feeling the boks will come right in this game.
Alberts should start im sure stegmann is a good player but like louw he hasn’t made much impact.
either way boks by 20 to 30.
The boks wont lose the world cup because of the coaching staff , they will win because of the players that will be on the team.
equally so anyone can coach the all blacks to a 90% win record but id like to see them coach the AB’s to a world cup final win that would be impressive
19 Nov 2010, 09:11 am
@mountaingoat(mountaingoat) : The Cantabs will reclaim it next year.
19 Nov 2010, 09:20 am
@TheTackler(TheTackler) : Where is the Super14 title?
19 Nov 2010, 09:28 am
Just goes to show the talent that comes out of the South of Africa. With a madman for a coach with little acumen for top class rugby coaching and political interference from even madder tin pot morons ‘running’ our beautiful country, we still somehow manage to win trophies. Some countries try and try and try but just can’t win and impress where it counts. It’s like being the strongest kid in school but having a tiny chaloger…that is New Zealand’s albatross.
Imagine how effective we could be with a truly brilliant coach and no political interference.
Boks to sail through this game with no game plan and no cohesion as with the last two games.
The real test will be England and the Boks will either win on pure dumb luck or get pulverised.
Fingers crossed like Snor does with each and every game.
19 Nov 2010, 09:30 am
The Stupid IRB will change the rules again next year and then we will all be at ground zero concerning tactics and application of laws. So the All Blacks might not have it there own way next year.
19 Nov 2010, 09:34 am
@iori Yagami(iori Yagami) : The laws might favour us like in 09. Or the IRB will keep it because it favours their beloved Sheep Shaggers. Maybe thats why they changed it after 09 because we smashed their beloved All Bleaks. The IRB is run poorly in my humble opinion.
19 Nov 2010, 09:38 am
I see Jannie du Plessis is doing a lot of work with the media ever week.Really good,intelligent interviews from him and it shows how he as studied his opponents and their tactics.Also showing respect
Well done Jannie du Plessis, keep it up
19 Nov 2010, 09:42 am
More se span, lyk goed. 2011 sal ek net vir 13, 8,7,6 en 1 verander. Ek kort Jacques,Spies,Schalk,Brusson,Steenkamp… Ek is nie gepla oor die vleuels nie… Die bal kom in elk geval nie by hulle nie… En daai poepol wat dink Morne hoort nie daar nie…. Dink weer…. Ek sal dalk vir Frans in 15 inskakel…. Zane, die game het verander…
19 Nov 2010, 09:56 am
I think a game of 2 halves could work nicely. Take the concervative approach in the first 40 and clock up the penalties with Morne,
Then bring Lambie on for the second half with points on the board and take the expansive approach
19 Nov 2010, 09:59 am
So the question is are they going to be fatigued by the time England come up or running well through match practice? Nobody ever really has answer on that one.
But what happened to pdivvy saying earlier this week that now was the time to start playing the youngsters …”they start bitching amongst themselves” was his as usual bizarre way of putting it? Do they really just make it all up as they go along? Looks like it.
19 Nov 2010, 10:12 am
12. Staal(Staal)that is about 230 now this year with the 17 found on Letaba near Kruger.
19 Nov 2010, 10:17 am
36. Marino(Marino) agreed. We need to test our depth before the RWC and the only way is to give some new blood a run. So if Stain gets hurt are we confident in our back up?
I would have liked to see Jantjies get a run. That laaitjie can skop for posts…
19 Nov 2010, 10:44 am
Bok fan – I like your idea. I am keen to see Lambie get an entire half, with F Steyn & RP to takes kicks, it will leave Lambie to run the ball a bit. We have some speedy wingers, be nice to se them fly this Sat!
19 Nov 2010, 10:48 am
@iori Yagami(iori Yagami) :
Give it up son, 09′ was the obligatory 5 year blip on the radar against your boys, normal service has resumed or have you forgotten 07′ and 08′ you couldn’t buy a win against us in those years either.
19 Nov 2010, 10:50 am
Don’t know if anyone else watched reunion after boots & all last night. Taine Randall’s comment’ on Bjorn and Chilliboy were a bit out of line. He also implied SA sport has a history of doping problems. He didn’t even make the distinction between a stimulant and a performance enhancer. I think even the presenter of the show felt a bit uneasy when he commented.I admired Taine for his play, bu his comments were a bit off.
19 Nov 2010, 10:55 am
@pompies2(pompies2) : You admired him for his play? Really? I always thought of him as the most unimpressive player to ever don an All Black jersey.
19 Nov 2010, 11:00 am
@race of tan(race of tan) : Ja I think guys like Lambie, Pienaar and Butch shouldnt be the first choice kickers ever and play there best without the added responsibility
19 Nov 2010, 11:01 am
@pompies2(pompies2) : well Black Panther says Taine in his time played against ‘juiced up” Boks like Francois Pienaar. i haven’t read Pienaar’s book, apparently he confesses to having been on the goo! so Taine might’ve been referring to ‘those’ Boks.
19 Nov 2010, 11:02 am
@Taahirah(Taahirah) : no, that is Donald!
19 Nov 2010, 11:03 am
@Transformation(Transformation) :
Taine is good mates with Spies.
19 Nov 2010, 11:10 am
looks like taine saw his chance for a bit of the limelight and grabbed it with both paws.
19 Nov 2010, 11:13 am
@gunther(gunther) :
You obviously don’t know the man, a straight shooter who is now back in NZ working charities no reason to lie on national TV risking his reputation for 5 mins of headlines, like your mate Trannie just said Pienaar admitted he was on the juice.
19 Nov 2010, 11:15 am
@Taahirah(Taahirah) : 42. I suppose admired might be a bit strong, but I thought he was a decent players. Could do the basics very well and one of the better NZ loosies of his time.
19 Nov 2010, 11:19 am
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA) :
oh china stop crying.
I’m not talking about Frankie Pienaar.
I’m talking about they way he now assumes the bok team is “back on the juice” after two people tested positive for a nasal decongestant.
grow the **** up.
go and have a massage or something.
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