Preview: Scotland vs Springboks
19 Nov 2010
JON CARDINELLI predicts a comfortable rather than convincing win for the Springboks in Edinburgh this Saturday.
Scotland have been a team on the relative rise, following a shock win against Australia in 2009 with a big victory over Ireland in the Six Nations. They went on to win a series in Argentina, and the more optimistic punters claimed they would be competitive against New Zealand and South Africa in late 2010.
While they deserved to win the aforementioned matches, special mention must go to the poor quality of opposition. Australia were awful in that loss, and Ireland went on to lose three more fixtures in succession, a losing streak that was only snapped by a scratchy win over Samoa. Argentina have been similarly disappointing, the 2007 World Cup semi-finalists sneaking home against lowly Italy last week.
The All Blacks provided some perspective with a 49-3 hammering of the outclassed Scots. While they’re capable of catching any team on a very bad day, Scotland cannot compete when the southern hemisphere teams show any sort of form. Even though the All Blacks didn’t have everything their own way at scrum time, they still held the ascendancy in other areas. If the All Blacks didn’t lose momentum in the latter stages, they may have surpassed 60 points.
The Boks are without many of their first-choice players, so we shouldn’t expect the same attacking fluidity that characterised the All Blacks performance last Saturday. What we can expect is a determined forward showing, as the Boks will look to produce a consistent effort after the erratic display in Cardiff.
Their scrum is in for a challenge, with British & Irish Lions tourists Euan Murray and Ross Ford supplying the necessary power to the Scottish pack. But as a unit, the Boks boast the better tight five. An accurate showing at the set-piece will allow their ball carriers to build the same kind of momentum that proved so unstoppable in Cardiff. The platform-setting aggression paved the way for Willem Alberts and Victor Matfield’s second-half tries.
Deon Stegmann, Juan Smith and Ryan Kankowski are an inexperienced back-row combination, but should enjoy the benefit of playing behind a dominant tight five. Kankowski has a lot to prove in the ball-carrying stakes. Until the point when the home resistance crumbles he will be asked to play a more bruising role than he’s accustomed to.
Andy Robinson has picked a big Scotland pack in hope of combating the robust South Africans. Traditionally a lock, Nathan Hines is moved to flank to give the Scots more lineout options, and bring more grunt to the all-important battle at the collisions. If the hosts cannot stifle the Boks in this area, then they will cop another hiding.
The severity of the beating depends on whether the Boks click or not. They have played well in patches on this tour, showing an appreciation for depleting a defence and attacking from the right areas, but then also exhibiting a tendency to make bad decisions and run the ball from poor positions. They’ll need to exhibit some tactical intelligence before unleashing finishers like Gio Aplon and debutant Lwazi Mvovo this Saturday.
It could be that Scotland opt to test South Africa’s new-look back three with the high ball. To do so would run the risk of exposing themselves to the counter-attack, and as seen in last week’s outing, Scotland’s scramble defence isn’t great. While the Boks shouldn’t embrace a looser game, they must punish Scotland’s errors. Again, it comes down to decision making of when to counter-attack and when to play for position.
Because of the injuries and the lack of established combinations in several departments, the Boks won’t complete a rout in Edinburgh. They will achieve a comfortable win though, one that gives them momentum for their all-important clash with England, but offers little insight into how youngsters like Pat Lambie may fare in a starting capacity.
Prediction: Boks by 15
Scotland – 15 Hugo Southwell, 14 Nikki Walker, 13 Max Evans, 12 Graeme Morrison, 11 Sean Lamont, 10 Dan Parks, 9 Rory Lawson (c), 8 John Barclay, 7 Kelly Brown, 6 Nathan Hines, 5 Scott MacLeod, 4 Richie Gray 3 Euan Murray, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Allan Jacobsen.
Subs: 16 Dougie Hall, 17 Moray Low, 18 Richie Vernon, 19 Ross Rennie, 20 Greig Laidlaw, 21 Ruaridh Jackson, 22 Chris Paterson.
Springboks -15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Gio Aplon, 13 Frans Steyn, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Victor Matfield (c), 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 CJ van der Linde, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Willem Alberts, 20 Ruan Pienaar, 21 Pat Lambie, 22 Adi Jacobs.
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293 Comments
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19 Nov 2010, 11:20 am
@Transformation(Transformation) : Juicing didn’t help Pienaars play though. But that is news to me.
For all PDV’s k@k selections, GH does make some iffy ones himself.
Just goes to show there are no hard and fast rules for selection. A coach needs to trust his judgement when assessing a players aptitude and readiness for test rugby.
What do you guys think should be the basic requirements for selection. Please leave politics aside for this one. What would qualify a player as test quality?
19 Nov 2010, 11:22 am
@gunther(gunther) :
Funny you should say that heading out for one now, wouldn’t surprise me if they were.
19 Nov 2010, 11:25 am
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA) :
of course it wouldn’t.
but the says more about you really doesn’t it.
sanctimonious little toad.
19 Nov 2010, 11:27 am
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA) : It would have been prudent for Taine to excercise some diplomacy in this matter and only commented on the story which he was asked about. Even the host, Melodie Robinson i think, said to him ‘be careful’.
Not discounting his good work, that was a bit uncalled for, espcially since we hear ad nauseum about a certain Bok coach’s crazy mutterings.
I also detected a bit of discontent from Dave Rennie regarding the scrum officiating. He is not alone in this, but consering his stance on PDV and reffereeing issues, it’s just a bit hypocritical. PS. Why does he always look so sour-faced?
19 Nov 2010, 11:30 am
@pompies2(pompies2) : If he makes little or no mistakes.
19 Nov 2010, 11:30 am
@pompies2(pompies2) : Taine should do well to shut his mouth. There are a few South Africans who have seen him misbehave in Durban clubs, often. Hardly one to talk about what other people do.
19 Nov 2010, 11:33 am
@pompies2(pompies2) : What did Taine say? I fell asleep while watching Boots n All!!
19 Nov 2010, 11:33 am
@pompies2(pompies2) : Starting in his Provincial team at least…
Unlike Chili, Jacobs, Maku, Januarie, Rose and and.
19 Nov 2010, 11:34 am
@gunther(gunther) : You see Gunther, it’s easy to be sanctimonious, if things are going for you, and difficult if you feel you not getting the rub of the green, but to get an honest opinion all the time is a real challenge and for all PDV’s crazy words, you always get the sense that he is being truthful(a bit too much at times)
19 Nov 2010, 11:37 am
@iori Yagami(iori Yagami) : He basically said it wasn’t a complete shock to hear about the ‘doping’ scandal, because SA has a history of drugging in sport. He couldn’t even make a distinction between a stimulant and a steroid.
19 Nov 2010, 11:41 am
@goyougoodthing2(goyougoodthing2) : What about coaches just preferring one player above another? Example. Duvenhage was started above Ricky for most of the season. Ricky did go through a patch where his form and conditioning wasn’t up to scratch, but on rugby ability, he is miles ahead of Duvenahge, in terms of his aptitude to play international rugby.
19 Nov 2010, 11:46 am
@pompies2(pompies2) : What a pompous a-hole
19 Nov 2010, 11:55 am
@iori Yagami(iori Yagami) : Tell me about it. Just goes to show how easily a rational mind can be lost when spotting an opportunity to get one over the opposition.
19 Nov 2010, 11:59 am
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA) : taine might be right.drugs performance enhancing drugs have always been a problem in south african schoolboy rugby especially amongst the afrikaner community due to their unnatural obsession with rugby.the joke used to be that these boys would sit down for breakfast with their performance enhanced drug placed next to their porridge bowl…but that was no joke.it’s sad to see black sportmen picking up these dirty habits.
19 Nov 2010, 12:04 pm
@pompies2(pompies2) : What about the 6 other scrummies that are better than Januarie in South Africa?
Coaches have favourites, but what do these guys have in common?
And they are not the best in their position by a LONG way.
19 Nov 2010, 12:10 pm
@bluejay(bluejay) : A dont subscribe to this theory. Even I, as a non-white, have to admit the genetic predisposition of caucasians to be a bit bigger than our local blacks and coloureds.
The whole supplement craze started with the creatine explosion. I know because I was one of them who would’ve like to use it, but couldn not afford to purchase it.
At that stage, the attitude of parents of kids in the various racial groups were also very different. White kids were encouraged by their parents to make sure they’d used all the neccessary avenues to ensure they maximised their sproting potential. My parents for example, ecnouraged participation, without really seeing rugby as a viable professional direction, regardless of my ability. Socio-economics did play a role, but they always tried to play down the comparison between how ‘white’ kids were approaching sport and ‘non-whites’ were playing sport.
19 Nov 2010, 12:13 pm
@bluejay(bluejay) : That is your opinion and you have quite a few others who agree with you. But there are some who also feel differently. And this is the coaching situation. You don’t have to listen to anybody. Daily we see bloggers select teams, but not once have i seen everyone agree with a team selection. Whay is that?
19 Nov 2010, 12:30 pm
@pompies2(pompies2) : The drugs may help the kids get bigger sure, but genetically the white guys in SA are bigger than the blacks coloureds and indians.
Unfortunately a portion of this does have to do with nutrition, going back several generations… and could be blamed in segregation.
But all societies have the same thing, the richer and more powerful generally eat better and marry taller and so richer people are taller.
It’s an economic and social stature thing.
There are not many short people belonging to rich dynasties… maybe self made guys but not many, and then they marry tall women LOL
19 Nov 2010, 12:36 pm
No denying what you’re saying, but in a rugby context, does it necessarily preclude those who are no that that phsyical stature from being selected. We are programmed to think bigger is better, but when this theory is countered, we act as if we never expected smaller could be just as good, if not better.
19 Nov 2010, 12:38 pm
@pompies2(pompies2) : Ok I must have missed that.
Well, Aplon showed on Saturday what is really important is heart not the size of your chest.
19 Nov 2010, 12:41 pm
Good team and good bench.
19 Nov 2010, 12:55 pm
Hi guys – at least Boks are back up to #2 again! Suprised (not) that Keo and other journos have not noted this, they were quick to notice the drop to #3.
Check www(dot)irb(dot)com
19 Nov 2010, 12:55 pm
I’d replace:
Zane Kirchner
10 Morne Steyn
Deon Stegmann
Flip van der Merwe
22 Adi Jacobs.
19 Nov 2010, 13:01 pm
@goyougoodthing2(goyougoodthing2) :
Aplon is one of those rare players who can handle bigger players. The vast majority of smaller players get blown away. Look at how de Jongh was utterly savaged during the TNs when he came on. Yet Aplon, who is smaller, made a crunching tackle to dump Muliaina from a standing position. Aplon is the exception to the rule. You get them, but not many of them. Check out Giteau. Then you get some of the big boys that never really impose themselves. Like Bekker, whom at test level has been humiliated countless times, being manhandled by much smaller backs. The highlight being dumped backwards onto his backside by a 5’7 78kg Frenchie. Size will be the winner, but you get the grey areas. You just have to be the judge on the individual.
Regarding genetics. The Afrikaaners descend from the tallest nation, but due to very difficult living conditions in their early history developed a very muscular and hardy gene pool. To deny the Afrikaaner as a genetic monster is simply foolish to the extreme. Do some take performance enhancing drugs? No doubt about it, but that is not the source of their physicality in rugby. They are perfectly suited to the sport. Black SAns are not very big, central and Western Africans are much bigger. Hence Bafana struggling even in soccer. Being physically out gunned in the stacks. The whole numbers game played by politicians is rediculous.
19 Nov 2010, 13:08 pm
@Alucard(Alucard) : Totally with you on all points.
I think the thing to remember is that there are exceptions, like Gio so we can’t discount them all out just on size… I think that is waht the other guy was getting at – i hope.
But yep, look at Brent Russell… dumped and run over.
And Lambie – he may be small but that guy has tackled everyone all season and runs in hard too… and then there are big guys with no heart, Spies had a name like that for a long time and disappeared in the hard games… apparently he is getting stuck in now but I am biased still
19 Nov 2010, 13:11 pm
@Alucard(Alucard) : The Dutch are tall so when their dykes break they can breathe… not very good at rugby though and terrible taste in colour… orange on a whitey YUCK!
19 Nov 2010, 13:20 pm
@goyougoodthing2(goyougoodthing2) :
LMAO!! XD
19 Nov 2010, 13:23 pm
It’s called technique
Technique, bodybposition and the eye for the gap! Aplon is a smart laaitjie
19 Nov 2010, 13:30 pm
I don’t believe in a team needing to have a Plan ‘B’. If Plan ‘A’ is not working, then either you are not executing it correctly. Or the opposition is not allowing you to execute it, i.e. you have been out thought or lastly, you are executing it and it is in-effective, i.e. the coaching staff lack creativity or the ability to analyze another team effectively
19 Nov 2010, 13:53 pm
Looking at the form of our current centers, I must say we are really missing Wynand Olivier
19 Nov 2010, 13:59 pm
@phil72(phil72) : no, what you said is wrong
19 Nov 2010, 14:00 pm
@Alucard(Alucard) : I read an interesting article recently about Aplon and the Stormers players where they have a specialist contact coach who coaches about body postioning in contact situations. Gio acsribes quite a bit of the success to him. You still need heart though and that cannot be coached.
19 Nov 2010, 14:01 pm
Good on crash ball. Good on defense and he can pass. What does the other 2 have to offer?
19 Nov 2010, 14:03 pm
hahahaha apparently de jongh – the guy who made 19 tackles against the all blacks at soccer city – was “utterly savaged” in the tri-nations Hahhahahaha
more, give us more 
19 Nov 2010, 14:05 pm
Talking about steyn and de villiers. You cant be to bright!!!
19 Nov 2010, 14:08 pm
if de jongh was “utterly savaged” in the tri-nations then i don’t know what the Welsh did to Jean de Villiers last weekend! I counted 6 missed tackles that i can recall from the game yet because he is supposedly a big afrikaner his defence gets no attention!
Imagine Adi ‘revolving door’ Jacobs being that KAK on defence, ryan vrede would’ve penned a vitriolic article on it ALREADY!
19 Nov 2010, 14:09 pm
@Transformation(Transformation) : I was about to point that out but then I realised from whom the comment comes from and I decided to scroll past…
19 Nov 2010, 14:13 pm
Springbok are currently playing with a dominating tight 5 and our midfield is probably been the most disorganized I’ve ever seen. Now compare this to the trinations where we were being bullied upfront.
19 Nov 2010, 14:15 pm
@Transformation(Transformation) : Why are you begin factual and fair? Get off this forum you agent!! Hamba!
19 Nov 2010, 14:24 pm
talking about tackling… has anyone ever seen Spies “spear” tackle someone back?…
when I say “spear” tackle I mean as in a diving tackle (think Gio on “Lomu” last weekend or Strauss (sharks) during the CC final)… not tipping a player over…
19 Nov 2010, 14:24 pm
@phil72(phil72) :
Don’t speak too soon the Pommie front row is enormous, Thompson and Sheridan are huge and they will cause big problems for the Bokke scrum like they did to us, the question is whether the Bokkes have the backs to win the game.
19 Nov 2010, 14:26 pm
@theOracle(theOracle) : the crazy thing about that game is that ma’a nonu made 5 tackles & missed none, conrad smith 5 tackles & missed none yet jean de villiers made 18 tackles missed none & juan de jongh made 19 tackles and missed 2.
Our centres handled the ball about FIVE times during the whole game, is seems like they were on the field just to tackle?
considering how much we don’t treasure possession, our defence in that game was exemplary.
19 Nov 2010, 14:26 pm
“we are missing Wynand” are you talking about the Bulls or the Boks
19 Nov 2010, 14:29 pm
@theOracle(theOracle) : the hairdresser
19 Nov 2010, 14:30 pm
I predict Scotland will win tomorrow. you heard it here first.
if someone gives me 10-1 for a Scotland wine – I’ll take a wager.
19 Nov 2010, 14:30 pm
@theOracle(theOracle) :
ain’t gonna happen.
19 Nov 2010, 14:37 pm
@brains_trust(brains_trust) : Seriaaaas? seriaaaas seriaaaaaas? I’d take you more serious if you said the Scots will run the Boks close and might pip it, but an out and out statement like you just made, makes me think you throwing the bones and the reading them upside down.
19 Nov 2010, 14:42 pm
@brains_trust(brains_trust) :post 95.
Jocks will have learned a thing or two from last week.
But Boks by 20 plus.
19 Nov 2010, 14:46 pm
@Panzer Chief(cane) :
Has to be can’t believe there are actually some Bokke fans on here worried about the game tomorrow.
19 Nov 2010, 14:52 pm
@pompies2(pompies2) : Lol oh please, Taine Randall, one of, if not the biggest f*cktards in rugby, ever….he makes Kevin Putt look like a cool bloke!
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