Preview: Scotland vs Springboks
19 Nov 2010
JON CARDINELLI predicts a comfortable rather than convincing win for the Springboks in Edinburgh this Saturday.
Scotland have been a team on the relative rise, following a shock win against Australia in 2009 with a big victory over Ireland in the Six Nations. They went on to win a series in Argentina, and the more optimistic punters claimed they would be competitive against New Zealand and South Africa in late 2010.
While they deserved to win the aforementioned matches, special mention must go to the poor quality of opposition. Australia were awful in that loss, and Ireland went on to lose three more fixtures in succession, a losing streak that was only snapped by a scratchy win over Samoa. Argentina have been similarly disappointing, the 2007 World Cup semi-finalists sneaking home against lowly Italy last week.
The All Blacks provided some perspective with a 49-3 hammering of the outclassed Scots. While they’re capable of catching any team on a very bad day, Scotland cannot compete when the southern hemisphere teams show any sort of form. Even though the All Blacks didn’t have everything their own way at scrum time, they still held the ascendancy in other areas. If the All Blacks didn’t lose momentum in the latter stages, they may have surpassed 60 points.
The Boks are without many of their first-choice players, so we shouldn’t expect the same attacking fluidity that characterised the All Blacks performance last Saturday. What we can expect is a determined forward showing, as the Boks will look to produce a consistent effort after the erratic display in Cardiff.
Their scrum is in for a challenge, with British & Irish Lions tourists Euan Murray and Ross Ford supplying the necessary power to the Scottish pack. But as a unit, the Boks boast the better tight five. An accurate showing at the set-piece will allow their ball carriers to build the same kind of momentum that proved so unstoppable in Cardiff. The platform-setting aggression paved the way for Willem Alberts and Victor Matfield’s second-half tries.
Deon Stegmann, Juan Smith and Ryan Kankowski are an inexperienced back-row combination, but should enjoy the benefit of playing behind a dominant tight five. Kankowski has a lot to prove in the ball-carrying stakes. Until the point when the home resistance crumbles he will be asked to play a more bruising role than he’s accustomed to.
Andy Robinson has picked a big Scotland pack in hope of combating the robust South Africans. Traditionally a lock, Nathan Hines is moved to flank to give the Scots more lineout options, and bring more grunt to the all-important battle at the collisions. If the hosts cannot stifle the Boks in this area, then they will cop another hiding.
The severity of the beating depends on whether the Boks click or not. They have played well in patches on this tour, showing an appreciation for depleting a defence and attacking from the right areas, but then also exhibiting a tendency to make bad decisions and run the ball from poor positions. They’ll need to exhibit some tactical intelligence before unleashing finishers like Gio Aplon and debutant Lwazi Mvovo this Saturday.
It could be that Scotland opt to test South Africa’s new-look back three with the high ball. To do so would run the risk of exposing themselves to the counter-attack, and as seen in last week’s outing, Scotland’s scramble defence isn’t great. While the Boks shouldn’t embrace a looser game, they must punish Scotland’s errors. Again, it comes down to decision making of when to counter-attack and when to play for position.
Because of the injuries and the lack of established combinations in several departments, the Boks won’t complete a rout in Edinburgh. They will achieve a comfortable win though, one that gives them momentum for their all-important clash with England, but offers little insight into how youngsters like Pat Lambie may fare in a starting capacity.
Prediction: Boks by 15
Scotland – 15 Hugo Southwell, 14 Nikki Walker, 13 Max Evans, 12 Graeme Morrison, 11 Sean Lamont, 10 Dan Parks, 9 Rory Lawson (c), 8 John Barclay, 7 Kelly Brown, 6 Nathan Hines, 5 Scott MacLeod, 4 Richie Gray 3 Euan Murray, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Allan Jacobsen.
Subs: 16 Dougie Hall, 17 Moray Low, 18 Richie Vernon, 19 Ross Rennie, 20 Greig Laidlaw, 21 Ruaridh Jackson, 22 Chris Paterson.
Springboks -15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Gio Aplon, 13 Frans Steyn, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Victor Matfield (c), 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 CJ van der Linde, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Willem Alberts, 20 Ruan Pienaar, 21 Pat Lambie, 22 Adi Jacobs.
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293 Comments
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19 Nov 2010, 17:15 pm
@poppa69(poppa69) :
It’s Friday, RG’s going to town. Two squooshes of nasal spray in each nostril. The only way to start the weekend…
19 Nov 2010, 17:15 pm
@Transformation(Transformation) : I know they are funny, I am getting them syndicated to national newspapers. I am unbelievable witty.
19 Nov 2010, 17:16 pm
@JockBok(JockBok) : hehehe is it mardi gras time already? nothing like the rush of amyl nitrate
19 Nov 2010, 17:19 pm
@charo(charo) : 198. Yeah, they seem to come from ole JB’s neck of the woods…
19 Nov 2010, 17:21 pm
Can someone plant some amyldexahydratinenonitrate under Ricky’s unbelievably thick skin… might keep him out permanently…
19 Nov 2010, 17:22 pm
@goyougoodthing2(goyougoodthing2) :
They’re only funny cos they’re true…
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game) :
Thin ice.
19 Nov 2010, 17:24 pm
@goyougoodthing2(goyougoodthing2) : Okes will pay for someone to go and give Ricky an injection of horse steroids in his sleep to keep him off the market for a while… That should do it at least until past October 2011…
19 Nov 2010, 17:33 pm
“So D.ick, I trust you, you are my number 1. What is the plan.”
“Ah Petie I think I’m going to get the guys to put their backs in, to you know, really step up to the plate this week. And on defense, you know take it for the team.”
“And your tactics, you know when i coached under 21 there was a light in my office that flicked. It used to keep me awake after a long lunch but the brandy still worked. You know what I mean.”
“Yep exactly. You know these are grown men, they know what they are doing, I’ve got a date, later Petie.”
“Ja D.ick, your coach knows you know. The players will play our game, ja, step up and you know, look for the prophet. Sometimes he is behind the posts and sometimes he is behind the whiskey. I’m not saying whiskey pays the bills but if you dance like a fireman you can’t get burned.”
19 Nov 2010, 17:33 pm
@JockBok(JockBok) : 206. Awful “coincidence”
19 Nov 2010, 17:33 pm
I just went to fetch my ticket an hour ago and on my way out I saw the Bokke in their bus pull into Murrayfield for their captain’s practice, with Percy standing in the front.
19 Nov 2010, 17:34 pm
@goyougoodthing2(goyougoodthing2) : whatever man.
19 Nov 2010, 17:38 pm
@Transformation(Transformation) : “When you live with whales you have to learn to hold your breath. There’s no substitute sugar when your coffee is getting cold.”
19 Nov 2010, 17:39 pm
@goyougoodthing2(goyougoodthing2) : 208. Classic, can imagine the high pitched helium voice delivering the lines.
The trickyDicky “I’ve got a date, later Petie.” can only come with a bit of insider knowledge. Classic!
19 Nov 2010, 17:43 pm
@daydreamer(daydreamer) :
I will see you at Murrayfield tomorrow.
Can’t wait.
19 Nov 2010, 18:09 pm
@goyougoodthing2(goyougoodthing2) : yawn….
19 Nov 2010, 20:10 pm
Little goat there again!
Pity because if you insist on selecting him he needs space to be creative?
We are going to miss Assegai tomorrow.
19 Nov 2010, 20:41 pm
Here’s hoping the Boks stuff up the Scots good and proper. Let’s be honest, if the AB’s can drill them, then so should we.
What money on it being a tight, close affair?
19 Nov 2010, 20:47 pm
@daydreamer(daydreamer) : I think Percy sits at the front cos he gets travel sick!!
19 Nov 2010, 20:48 pm
@wooden spoon(wooden spoon) : Definately going to be close for a number of reasons.
But the core of senior players will guide the team to victory.
19 Nov 2010, 21:10 pm
We are all rugby geniuses, we play our 2 best wings as loose forwards, choose to ignore that a centre pairing is necessary, having one of the best flyhalves in the world and insisting on playing a 19yr old with 10 currie cups under his belt. Then somewhere in our game we started believing in drift offence, yes don’t try and tackle before the advantage line, drift them out to touch. Now suddenly there should only be one game plan, spread the ball and run them off their feet.
Over the past 10 years there has only been one game plan that worked for us – like the Bulls – dominate upfront , kick for territory, tackle BEFORE the game line and play from there……
HoW hard can this be……………?
19 Nov 2010, 21:19 pm
i meant drift deffence
19 Nov 2010, 21:22 pm
@phil72(phil72) : I can ‘sort of’ see what you are trying to say but I do not agree. Why do we have to be so inflexible that we can only play 1 type of game? It’s so predictable and easily worked out. And when it doesn’t work, is there a plan B, C and D?…
I assume it is Morne Steyn you are saying is “one of the best flyhalves in the world”? Mate, he might be the best place kicker in the world but that doesn’t make him one of the best flyhalves in the world.
I’d love to know which budding wings we have currently playing as loose forwards. Spies as wing? Get out of town.
And BTW, the “Bulls style” of rugby hardly worked wonders for them in the S12 between 1998 and 2004.
Your Bulls blinkers are shining through. Time to get on the Bok train.
19 Nov 2010, 21:41 pm
@wooden spoon(wooden spoon) :
Referring to Pierre Spies and Ryan kankovski, both potentially brilliant wings, because of unforeseen sir circumstances forced to play as loosies. And yes like you so correctly pointed out the bulls has not taken all the super 14 trophies of the past few years but importantly with the correct game plan and structures managed to take take 2( according to you standards not to good but according tom mine, not all bad). Now can we learn from this? Obviously not, we are all suggesting that names like WO, P spies, Danie, Bakkies, Morne are all over rated and only deserve to play second league rugby. What next
19 Nov 2010, 22:05 pm
@phil72(phil72) : Bakkies deserves his place in the team, the rest of the players mentioned are just not the best players in their positions in SA. WO, Spies and Danie are not in the top three players in their position in the country. Rugby has changed. It’s all about possession, driving up and putting players into space. It’s great having a player in your team that kick well, but putting some in at 10 with no other skills is crazy old school mentality. England, the Kiwis and the Ozzies can see this, it’s just our clown coaches and a few die hards from Pretoria that have blinkers on.
19 Nov 2010, 22:06 pm
this welsh commentator is the most irritating man i’ve ever heard! Moaning, moaning, moaning!!!!!!
19 Nov 2010, 22:15 pm
@Transformation(Transformation) : Of course South Africans NEVER moan!!!
19 Nov 2010, 22:22 pm
@carol(carol) : not when they’re calling the game! Fkcu this guy is like a woman!
19 Nov 2010, 22:27 pm
Fiji winning 13-6 at HT. Maybe a bit of perspective for the Boks here?
Tomorrow is going to be tougher than most folk on here imagine
19 Nov 2010, 22:35 pm
@JockBok(JockBok) : Feeling a bit tense there Jock?
How do you decide who to shout for, a dielemma indeed!
19 Nov 2010, 22:38 pm
I predicted victories for all big boys this weekend, except France (thou shalt not beat Pumas).
No matter – go Fiji.
19 Nov 2010, 22:42 pm
Hopefully Patterson will get his time tomorrow. He is the one who can challenge Morne Steyn as the deadliest kicker.
19 Nov 2010, 22:47 pm
wales are bringin on the calvary!!!! Hahahahaha
19 Nov 2010, 22:53 pm
@carol(carol) :
Lol, I’m not tense, just bluddy annoyed after last weekend.
The folly of playing the ABs after 5 months without a game is clouding my vision, and I’m not sure what’s going to happen tomorrow.
I’ve come to the conclusion that the ABs were just awesome, and they were allowed to hit their stride all too easily early on. There was only going to be one way traffic after that. Coupled with a rusty team, it was inevitable.
But I think tomorrow is going to be a lot closer. Scotland can’t be so bad again, and the Boks approach the game different to the ABs. Basically the Scots need a bit of belief and need to control the ball early on. If they don’t concede in the first 15-20 minutes, it could get interesting.
Watching Wales here makes me think that the Boks aren’t in the place that they think they might be. And they might just be thinking the same as the fans are ‘hey, it’s only Scotland’ And that could be a mistake.
19 Nov 2010, 22:56 pm
@Nils(Nils) :
You remember what I said to you before last weekend Nils? Something along the lines of Scotland will get an inevitable early penalty and make the ABs mad
Should have kept my mouth shut
19 Nov 2010, 22:56 pm
This castrato welshman is bad enough.
Yes! He bleats when wales are awarded a penalty.
But at least they have found a replacement for Brian Moore who along with Janet Stransky is the most irritating commentator in the world.
19 Nov 2010, 22:59 pm
Groundhog day, Fiji scrum was massacred by the Welsh in WC07, too.
19 Nov 2010, 23:00 pm
Johnothan Davies.
Wearer of the shortest shorts in rugby history.
Honestly if a gogo dancer rocked up to work in those shorts she would have been sent home to change into something more respectable.
And now the little woofter is bleating for a penalty try.
19 Nov 2010, 23:02 pm
@gunther(gunther) :
Jonathon Davies has been an annoying little shiite for many years now. Usually in the studio rather than co-commentator. But in my mind, he overtook Brian Moore a long time ago.
19 Nov 2010, 23:02 pm
@JockBok(JockBok) : Sorry for your folks, Jockbok! Scotland are not that bad as they were last weekend but really they had no chance whatsoever, had they even trained together for a year.
19 Nov 2010, 23:04 pm
@gunther(gunther) : Warren “Trytime!” Brosnihan is rather irritating, too.
19 Nov 2010, 23:06 pm
On the positive note, how Davies will bleat next week. Sweet.
19 Nov 2010, 23:07 pm
Jockster
Brian Moore almost cost me a new tv last weekend.
The guy is about as balanced as a pit bull with 3 legs.
The only reason they close the roof of the millennium stadium is to stop him howling at the moon.
19 Nov 2010, 23:09 pm
Man, I get a sore throat listening to the Bros. He voice is just so deep. VERY irritating.
19 Nov 2010, 23:11 pm
@JockBok(JockBok) : 233
Fiji beat Wales in the 2007 RWC. I wouldn’t put too much stock in Fiji running Wales close tonight…
19 Nov 2010, 23:11 pm
Nils
Trytime is bad yes.
But he is not in pitbulls league.
19 Nov 2010, 23:15 pm
@gunther(gunther) :
Lol. But like any Jock, I’ve got an inbuilt dislike for the guy after his bad loser comments and his obvious hatred for Scotland.
He really was the guy we loved to hate, and it was reciprocated before and after many Calcutta cup games.
Funny thing is, I’ve mellowed to him in later years, realising he is just passionate about his country. Like we all are.
19 Nov 2010, 23:16 pm
@gunther(gunther) : He could not even pass into his own big mouth from 20 attempts.
(news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/rugby_union/welsh/9176198.stm)
19 Nov 2010, 23:19 pm
@wooden spoon(wooden spoon) :
I remember it well mate.
Just saying though. Watch how the ABs walk through Ireland and Wales next week, while the Boks seem to be doing a lot of huffing and puffing.
19 Nov 2010, 23:19 pm
It’s great for the game that a 3rd tier nation can push a 2nd tier nation really close.
19 Nov 2010, 23:21 pm
Jockbok
I remember him well.
I was at school in England when he was playing.
Everyone thought he was a headcase then.
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