World Cup format is flawed
15 Dec 2010
MARK KEOHANE, writing in Business Day Sport Monthly, says the World Cup needs to be revamped so that the most consistent team is rewarded.
It says something for the consistency of the All Blacks that we only seem to remember the games they lose. Unfortunately it says as much for the Springboks in their great rivalry with the New Zealanders that we can remember all the games the South Africans win.
The Rugby World Cup, introduced in 1987, has changed the way results are viewed and it has also encouraged mediocrity in between World Cups. Success is defined by who wins a competition played once every four years and the commercial highlight of professional rugby is a seven-week competition, in which the three play-off rounds produce the only strength versus strength match-ups.
Statistically, no sports team in the world (regardless of the code) has consistently excelled like the All Blacks, and no team can boast winning three from four games in over 100 years against all comers. The All Blacks, since professionalism of the sport in 1996, play the Springboks and Australia on average three times a year home and away, yet they still win 60% of the match-ups.
The consistency in New Zealand’s rugby is reflected in 10 Tri-Nations trophy wins in the past 15 years, three Grand Slam triumphs in three attempts over five years and 13 wins in 22 visits to South Africa. The Boks, in the same period, have won three Tri-Nations championships, no Grand Slams and three in 21 Tests in New Zealand.
The All Blacks in the past eight years have also won 42 from 44 matches against northern hemisphere opposition, but lost to France in a one-off at the 1999 and 2007 World Cups and because of this France are said to have New Zealand’s number, despite historically only winning 12 matches in 49 against the All Blacks.
Knockout competitions are cruel and they don’t always reward form or substance, but is it right that one tournament, played every four years, can render everything else in Test rugby meaningless?
In soccer I can understand the prestige of the World Cup because of the number of teams capable of winning the tournament and the quality of the match-ups from the pool stages.
I remain unconvinced that the measure of a team in rugby is who wins the World Cup every four years because the Six Nations and Tri-Nations, as respective tournaments, are more difficult to win.
Rugby only has five teams capable of winning the World Cup, and all have the ability to beat the other in a one-off situation, which is why winning the Rugby World Cup is more a lottery than it is the successful implementation of a meticulous four-year plan.
New Zealand are consistently the best team in the world, even in unsuccessful World Cup tournament years, and they have the record to back up this view. All Blacks captain Richie McCaw has played 94 Tests in the past decade and lost 10. No other captain in the history of the game has achieved this success over a 10-year period, but two of those defeats have come in World Cup play-off matches, in Sydney in 2003 and Cardiff in 2007.
Does that mean the 84 wins and countless trophies count for nothing? Of course it doesn’t and that is why for the Rugby World Cup to be a true measure of who is a world champion and who is a World Cup holder based on a one-off win, the tournament needs to be revamped to a strength versus strength format, which would reward the most consistent team.
The current World Cup format means one of the top five’s tournament can be over because of 40 poor minutes in the only meaningful match they play.
This kind of format will seldom reward the best, and rugby can learn from the North American approach to sport finals in all their major sporting codes. Firstly, it takes winning consistently for a team to get to the final and secondly, once there it takes the same amount of consistency to actually be crowned champions through a best of three, five or seven series, depending on the code.
The luck of a good day and the curse of a bad one is removed from the equation because over a three-match series, for example, the winner will have needed more than good luck to be the champion.
Rugby nations, pre one-off Tests and professionalism, traditionally played a three or four Test series to determine the winner, so why can’t the game revert to strength versus strength at the World Cup?
The opening month of every Rugby World Cup has been a farce with one-sided pool contests. For the event to have greater credibility it needs greater substance.
Strength versus strength would also give meaning to every Test played in between World Cups because teams would be playing to make the top eight of a premier World Cup tournament.
In a revamped model, which makes the use of a squad of 30 essential rather than an option, the top eight teams play each other over a month period. Each team plays seven matches, two a week, and the top two in this World Cup Premier League qualify for a best of three final to be played over a 14-day period. If a team goes two up, there is no consolation third match. Whoever hosts the World Cup Premier League every four years also simultaneously hosts the World Cup Championship League for teams ranked nine to 16.
This way the game is still grown and the incentives are still there without the embarrassment of mismatches that are
a feature of rugby’s World Cup.
It would also remove the lottery element from who wins the World Cup and again force coaches and their respective administrations to honour the true meaning of Test rugby.
It may also end New Zealand’s search for World Cup glory and start South Africa’s search for year-to-year consistency.
– This first appeared in the December issue of Business Day Sport Monthly.
621 Comments
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16 Dec 2010, 15:10 pm
How many South Africans does it take to change a light bulb?…………Electricity,in a mud hut,are you farking crazy
16 Dec 2010, 15:22 pm
@bokke baiter : Ha true. How many Maoris does it take to change a lightbulb?
None, it’s the government’s job to do stuff for the boys while they sip on their Tuis.
16 Dec 2010, 15:47 pm
@Black Panther : 446 let’s see. Earlier on this very thread you said
114. BLACK PANTHER :
December 15th, 2010 at 11:26 am
Phew
Looks likeKeo finally accepted that offer
from Paddy O ’Bumchum.
Its only taken him, what, 9 months before
he realised NZ rugby wasnt “k@k” afterall.
so BP, for the last time now – and here’s hoping you won’t play obfuscatory games – and then i leave this issue. Where & when did Keo write that “NZ rugby is kak”?
16 Dec 2010, 16:37 pm
Nice to see some faces who were notably absent during July-September when zero and three were placed vice versa.
16 Dec 2010, 16:40 pm
@Nils : really Nils?
who was absent?
last year you could barely find a kiwi here. same thing after 2007.
otherwise how are things my latvian friend.
16 Dec 2010, 16:42 pm
How many south African woman does it take to change a light bulb? ……………Oh,I thought they changed themselves .
16 Dec 2010, 16:44 pm
@bokke baiter : ?
up your game sonny.
16 Dec 2010, 16:51 pm
@rangerman : Cudos to you, sharp reaction.
Life is good here despite crisis and -15, hopefully you are doing fine, and your little daugther, too, is happy and well, plus sun is shining bright.
Anyway, no offence intended. I just allowed myself a little smile remembering those huge number of posts in 2009 comparing to this year, I hardly recall you being here during the 3N. Nice to see you back. No irony.
Looking forward to good rugga next year.
16 Dec 2010, 17:04 pm
@bokke baiter : How many kiwi women does it take to change a lightbulb.
None. They are ugly enough with the lights off.
16 Dec 2010, 18:02 pm
@rangerman :
What are you talking about, when we beat you in Durban in 07′ and again in Chch there were Nzers all over this site, you won the world cup in 07′ but you did not beat the Ab’s.
16 Dec 2010, 18:49 pm
Its true there used to be more Kiwis on this sight.
Now there are just a few hardcore crazies left (no pun intended poops). Like those Japanese soldiers they discovered marooned on tropical islands years after the second world war was finished.
Driven mad by isolation and home made hooch they still thought they were fighting the good fight.
Tragic and yet somehow heroic.
16 Dec 2010, 20:10 pm
@E.T. :
Thankyou for the input. It was very helpful
16 Dec 2010, 20:52 pm
.
tick tick tick
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tick tick tick
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tick tick tick
16 Dec 2010, 20:57 pm
So who won the Bakgat 2 DVD?
16 Dec 2010, 21:34 pm
Gunther @ 461
how is that a pun ?
16 Dec 2010, 21:53 pm
@gunther : You are dead right, 3N and EOYT are over. I guess, Japanese won there by a canter. Where are Americans?
“O! say can you see by the dawn’s early light,
What so proudly we hailed at the twilight’s last gleaming”
etc.
16 Dec 2010, 23:31 pm
Nils
You aren’t a proper soldier of the emperor.
More of a quisling
17 Dec 2010, 01:35 am
This site would be nothing without some kiwi input ……. Just a big G A Y saffie brokeback mountain love in
17 Dec 2010, 01:35 am
tick tick tick tick tick tick tick tick
tick tick tick tick tick
tick tick tick tick
tick tick tick
tick tick
tick
tick
tick
tick
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tick
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tick
17 Dec 2010, 01:39 am
@Transformation : @ 453
Posted on Twitter
by mark_keohane
15 pts looking good. And there r those who still think Jacobs better than fourie …. What a try
6:16 PM Apr 30th via Twitterrific
15 was being kind. Stormers rule and this is confirmation of Just how KAK nz rugby is.
6:48 PM Apr 30th via Twitterrific
as posted on keo.co.za on April 30th
*ahem*
(nb – and, no, I didnt add the caps)
17 Dec 2010, 01:50 am
How Many All Black World Cup winners does it take to change a light bulb?
Ha Ha
Trick question.
17 Dec 2010, 01:52 am
Er, think we need to throw Black Panther into the tick dip.
17 Dec 2010, 01:56 am
@Transformation : @ 429
So you lead this whole thing, outta the blue. Whatever possessed you ?!
“429. TRANSFORMATION :
December 16th, 2010 at 10:57 am
@Black Panther : hey bp, how are you this morning? i hope u’re feeling more at ease today…
now, about the little matter of the article – nz rugby is kak – can you now unequivocally tell me that you read such an article here on keo?”
And then the pestering started….
@Transformation : @ 439
and all sorts of outrageous accusations !”
“439. TRANSFORMATION :
December 16th, 2010 at 11:41 am
@Black Panther : 438 so BP if u have no recollection of ever readinf an article penned by keo declaring that “nz rugby is kak”, can we safely say that you’re out perpetuating hearsay as fact when in ur BS u refer to such an article?”.
PERPETUATING HEARSAY AS FACT ?
you talking to me, Willis ?!
and then, Transie, I warned you – didnt I ?
@Black Panther : @ 444
“444. BLACK PANTHER :
December 16th, 2010 at 12:12 pm
@Transformation : @ 439
This is your statement of claim; make your case.
But, Transie, this time remember to read the WHOLE thread. It got a bit ugly this year when you forgot, and the buildup is looking remarkably similar.”
and yet STILL you wouldnt heed some good advice !
@Transformation : @ 453
“453. TRANSFORMATION :
December 16th, 2010 at 3:47 pm
@Black Panther : 446
BP, for the last time now – and here’s hoping you won’t play obfuscatory games – and then i leave this issue. Where & when did Keo write that “NZ rugby is kak”?”
OBFUSCATORY GAMES ?!
oh dear
oh deary deary dear
17 Dec 2010, 02:02 am
‘obfuscatory – obfuscate; intended to conceal the truth by confusion.’
17 Dec 2010, 02:04 am
‘perpetuating hearsay as fact’
17 Dec 2010, 02:07 am
@Transformation :
I dunno, but its my suspicion that you may have been suggesting that I was
a LIAR.
Were you calling me a Liar, Transie ?
Yes or No.
Dont be obfuscatory with your answer, now.
Yes
or
No.
17 Dec 2010, 02:09 am
‘I remain unconvinced that the measure of a team in rugby is who wins the World Cup every four years because the Six Nations and Tri-Nations, as respective tournaments, are more difficult to win.’
Well Keo, if the 3N and 6N were really more difficult to win then France and New Zealand should find it no problem to win the World Cup. Yet they have 1 win between them and that from an amateur tournament 25 years ago.
No, the World Cup is the pinnacle of the sport where teams arrive at full-strength and play on neutral territory to determine who is the best. Any team that cannot handle pressure when it’s at its most intense does not deserve to be called World Champions.
If South Africa want year-in, year-out consistency they should address their player-management and look after their star players in the same way NZ does.
Being the most consistent does not mean you are the best however, the best is only determined when all the other teams can enjoy those same player availability advantages.
17 Dec 2010, 02:12 am
How did the South African cross the Road?………3 shots of anadrol-50 plus one booster shot of hybolin Decanoate
17 Dec 2010, 02:15 am
@Transformation : @
and whatever came over you that doubted Keo wouldNT say BS like that ?!
“Watched boots & all (SA tv show) & reunion (NZ tv show). The latter far superior in analysis. Only thing in nz rugby superior to sa. Let’s keep it that way boys
8:14 PM May 13th via Twitterrific”.
ONLY THING ?
17 Dec 2010, 02:18 am
@Transformation :
“Donald next best after Carter and people ask why nz rugger in the crapper! 0/6 reward the mediocrity that stays to diminish black jersey
9:59 AM Apr 23rd via Twitterrific”
MEDIOCRITY ?
17 Dec 2010, 02:23 am
@Black Panther : @ 480
presumably the “0/6″ includes the 3-0 the Boks were going to dish out to the mediocre kak ABs in 2010.
or is that just being obfuscatory with the truth ?
I wouldnt want to appear to be perpetuating that hearsay as fact tho, y’hear.
17 Dec 2010, 04:04 am
@Black Panther : Funny the playing field is level with merit refs.
Your ANZAC “gat gabbas” have assisted greatly in the AB’s win record against the Boks.
AB rugby should forever be indebted to your ANZAC cuzzies and your Polynesian imports. Yea yea we know, they came over to Mud Island to better themselves. They also bettered NZ rugby.
Black Panther 449 – I never mentioned any year in isolation, but then we are all used to your dishonesty.
I called you slimey way back – nothing has changed and nothing will change.
17 Dec 2010, 04:58 am
@Black Panther :
doos!
17 Dec 2010, 05:05 am
wet pantie, you have to be the biggest twat in living memory, …..the dude that was called the nerd at school, gat sucking, brown nosing know all wan ker. You know, the guy who the teachers voted onto the prefects council, not your peers…….you know the kind of dooos we are talking about?…….met everyone, had beers with everyone, played golf around the world with everyone, knows and been to every concert by every musician that counts………..visited every country, knows everything…………. ie a big fat know all, one eyed, pedestal sitting DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOS!
17 Dec 2010, 08:04 am
@Black Panther :hahaha nice one BP
*thinking to self* twitter, why didn’t think of that?
17 Dec 2010, 08:42 am
Merry Christmas
17 Dec 2010, 10:13 am
@Transformation : @ 485
Is that all you have to say for yourself ?
Ive called you a ‘Poor Loser’ here this year. Because that was my opinion.
But you called me a Liar here, Transie, didnt you. Are you man enough, now, to admit you were wrong ?
17 Dec 2010, 10:23 am
@Connag :
“many of the AB wins were on the backs of some very dubious officiating by there ANZAC cuzzies. The Boks were simply blown off the park by cheating ANZAC refs. “.
The number of AB wins accountable to ANZAC refs was the same as your Credibility rating
Z E R O
17 Dec 2010, 10:28 am
@Transformation :
Transie
after the big buildup, and the warning signs that you failed to heed…..to now fail to acknowledge your mistake would make Boy George look like a War Hero compared.
17 Dec 2010, 10:36 am
Happy New Year.
17 Dec 2010, 10:38 am
@Dawn :
17 Dec 2010, 10:40 am
@Black Panther : where did i call you a liar? BP i asked you to bring evidence and simingly you did *though i haven’t verified it yet*
your opinion of me, was based on what really, the fact that i stood up to your derision of south africans? remember you made up a “theory” about saffas believing that the Springboks’ chances of winning the world cup next year hinge on new zealand choking and nothing else, and when i asked you to substantiate your theory, you called me a poor loser.
well sorry for you, i don’t know that i was supposed to be submissive just because your team won this year
17 Dec 2010, 10:43 am
@Transformation : seemingly
17 Dec 2010, 10:45 am
spicier than an idian khazi here.
accusations counter accusations.
17 Dec 2010, 10:53 am
Boy George for the Victoria Cross !
17 Dec 2010, 10:58 am
“perpetuating hearsay as fact when in ur BS…….obfuscatory games ”
and the Woltemade Medal for Bravery goes to Boy George.
17 Dec 2010, 10:59 am
and alone, above them all.
stands the lonely figure of the Samurai warrior.
Banzai!
17 Dec 2010, 11:02 am
@Transformation : @ 492
“submissive” ?
mmmmmmmmmmmm, s u b m i s s i v e.
Ive seen Thai ladyboys with a ready armoury of ping pong balls being less submissive than you are now, Transie.
17 Dec 2010, 11:05 am
Ho ho ho
17 Dec 2010, 11:05 am
@Black Panther : @Black Panther : hahahaha that was one of MANY questions i asked you
, did you miss the question mark @ the end?
439. Transformation :
December 16th, 2010 at 11:41 am
@Black Panther : 438 so BP if u have no recollection of ever reading an article penned by keo declaring that “nz rugby is kak”, can we safely say that you’re out perpetuating hearsay as fact when in ur BS u refer to such an article?
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