World Cup format is flawed
15 Dec 2010
MARK KEOHANE, writing in Business Day Sport Monthly, says the World Cup needs to be revamped so that the most consistent team is rewarded.
It says something for the consistency of the All Blacks that we only seem to remember the games they lose. Unfortunately it says as much for the Springboks in their great rivalry with the New Zealanders that we can remember all the games the South Africans win.
The Rugby World Cup, introduced in 1987, has changed the way results are viewed and it has also encouraged mediocrity in between World Cups. Success is defined by who wins a competition played once every four years and the commercial highlight of professional rugby is a seven-week competition, in which the three play-off rounds produce the only strength versus strength match-ups.
Statistically, no sports team in the world (regardless of the code) has consistently excelled like the All Blacks, and no team can boast winning three from four games in over 100 years against all comers. The All Blacks, since professionalism of the sport in 1996, play the Springboks and Australia on average three times a year home and away, yet they still win 60% of the match-ups.
The consistency in New Zealand’s rugby is reflected in 10 Tri-Nations trophy wins in the past 15 years, three Grand Slam triumphs in three attempts over five years and 13 wins in 22 visits to South Africa. The Boks, in the same period, have won three Tri-Nations championships, no Grand Slams and three in 21 Tests in New Zealand.
The All Blacks in the past eight years have also won 42 from 44 matches against northern hemisphere opposition, but lost to France in a one-off at the 1999 and 2007 World Cups and because of this France are said to have New Zealand’s number, despite historically only winning 12 matches in 49 against the All Blacks.
Knockout competitions are cruel and they don’t always reward form or substance, but is it right that one tournament, played every four years, can render everything else in Test rugby meaningless?
In soccer I can understand the prestige of the World Cup because of the number of teams capable of winning the tournament and the quality of the match-ups from the pool stages.
I remain unconvinced that the measure of a team in rugby is who wins the World Cup every four years because the Six Nations and Tri-Nations, as respective tournaments, are more difficult to win.
Rugby only has five teams capable of winning the World Cup, and all have the ability to beat the other in a one-off situation, which is why winning the Rugby World Cup is more a lottery than it is the successful implementation of a meticulous four-year plan.
New Zealand are consistently the best team in the world, even in unsuccessful World Cup tournament years, and they have the record to back up this view. All Blacks captain Richie McCaw has played 94 Tests in the past decade and lost 10. No other captain in the history of the game has achieved this success over a 10-year period, but two of those defeats have come in World Cup play-off matches, in Sydney in 2003 and Cardiff in 2007.
Does that mean the 84 wins and countless trophies count for nothing? Of course it doesn’t and that is why for the Rugby World Cup to be a true measure of who is a world champion and who is a World Cup holder based on a one-off win, the tournament needs to be revamped to a strength versus strength format, which would reward the most consistent team.
The current World Cup format means one of the top five’s tournament can be over because of 40 poor minutes in the only meaningful match they play.
This kind of format will seldom reward the best, and rugby can learn from the North American approach to sport finals in all their major sporting codes. Firstly, it takes winning consistently for a team to get to the final and secondly, once there it takes the same amount of consistency to actually be crowned champions through a best of three, five or seven series, depending on the code.
The luck of a good day and the curse of a bad one is removed from the equation because over a three-match series, for example, the winner will have needed more than good luck to be the champion.
Rugby nations, pre one-off Tests and professionalism, traditionally played a three or four Test series to determine the winner, so why can’t the game revert to strength versus strength at the World Cup?
The opening month of every Rugby World Cup has been a farce with one-sided pool contests. For the event to have greater credibility it needs greater substance.
Strength versus strength would also give meaning to every Test played in between World Cups because teams would be playing to make the top eight of a premier World Cup tournament.
In a revamped model, which makes the use of a squad of 30 essential rather than an option, the top eight teams play each other over a month period. Each team plays seven matches, two a week, and the top two in this World Cup Premier League qualify for a best of three final to be played over a 14-day period. If a team goes two up, there is no consolation third match. Whoever hosts the World Cup Premier League every four years also simultaneously hosts the World Cup Championship League for teams ranked nine to 16.
This way the game is still grown and the incentives are still there without the embarrassment of mismatches that are
a feature of rugby’s World Cup.
It would also remove the lottery element from who wins the World Cup and again force coaches and their respective administrations to honour the true meaning of Test rugby.
It may also end New Zealand’s search for World Cup glory and start South Africa’s search for year-to-year consistency.
– This first appeared in the December issue of Business Day Sport Monthly.
621 Comments
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15 Dec 2010, 13:12 pm
@bangkok-bok : i aggree with you, but i doubt that a NZ/Auzzi coach would be the answer. Playing to our strengths makes us a dangerous team and I think you need a south african coach who understands those strengths to make a bok team reach its full potential. A foreign backline coach could do wonders though… We can always get on the front foot with our forwards and world class lineout, but i cant remember when our backs looked organised and dangerous with ball in hand. And its sad, cause we have exciting players to do just that.
15 Dec 2010, 13:12 pm
ag shame arme whiteys whining and crying that the political interference is stuffing up their holy white enshrined sport again . They had it so good that for almost a century from 1890 to 1980 thereabouts not one single darker shade of epidermis was allowed anywhere near the holy Bokkie jersey until Doc C allowed Errol Thobias to slip it over his head because no whitey was good enough to wear the 10 jersey then. Which opened the door for Chester Williams highest try scorer in Wc 95 and Breyton Pause etc to follow on after.
Now they crying again they want their lily white teams like before 1981 yet when they were let back in in 1992 their lily white teams coached by lily white coaches and led by lily white hero’s like Nasty Booter et al were fckd up something horrible by the likes of NZ and Oz for 2 – 3 years solid until it swung around at Wc 95
15 Dec 2010, 13:13 pm
Transie
Obviously that’s what got them interested in the genre.
“And its not true what you say” according to Maevis. She also does silver and she scrubs my golf bats.
We are also doing a cover of the Yellow Submarine for the Navy end of year bash.
However this may cause some red faces at the navy so we have gone with Surfing RSA instead.
15 Dec 2010, 13:13 pm
@Jeez : John Plumtree
15 Dec 2010, 13:16 pm
@skopiskoobidoo : Chester and Breyton were quotas
15 Dec 2010, 13:19 pm
How cheap is this All Black jersey?
Money at the heart of Williams’s boxing
2010-12-15 09:15:01
The New Zealand Rugby Union on Wednesday backed plans by rising All Blacks star Sonny Bill Williams to resume his boxing career, adding that money was at the heart of their decision allow him to return to the ring.
Williams, 25, will fight Australian Scott Lewis on January 29 in his third professional bout, just weeks away from a season culminating in the World Cup, the NZRU said in statement.
The NZRU, which was accused of wrapping its players in cotton wool ahead of their failed 2007 World Cup campaign, said it was “comfortable” with the fight, despite the danger of injury to a player hailed as the new Jonah Lomu.
“There’s a risk that he will get injured, absolutely, but it one that we think is worth taking,” the NZRU’s General Manager of professional rugby told Radio NZ.
“He’s an amazing athlete, he’s going to be in a professional environment, he’s boxed before and we’re happy with the risks.”
Williams’ bout will take place three weeks before his Crusaders team begins its Super 15 campaign.
Reports in New Zealand said Williams’ contract contained provisions for him to contest a second fight later in 2011 when the Crusaders have a bye in the competition, which would be either early April or early June.
The latter date is just three months from the start of the World Cup in New Zealand, where Williams is seen as a key element in the All Blacks’ home soil bid to restore their credibility in Rugby Union’s showcase tournament.
Sorensen confirmed that the NZRU agreed to let Williams box as part of his contract, saying it was the only way of stopping him re-signing with cashed-up French rugby team Toulon earlier this year.
“We couldn’t compete with Toulon, we were millions and millions [of dollars] apart and this was just one way of securing him,” he said.
“It was agreed with Sonny Bill [Williams] as part of his contract with the NZRU that he would be able to undertake professional boxing fights and we are comfortable with the timing of this event.”
Sorensen added that Williams had experience as a professional boxer prior to signing with the NZRU and was working with a professional boxing team to prepare for his fight, the third of his professional boxing career.
“We are comfortable that his boxing training regime and the bout itself won’t impact on his preparations for the Super Rugby season with the Crusaders and he will re–join the Crusaders squad for pre–season training again after the fight.”
Williams, a former star of Australia’s National Rugby League, was fast-tracked into the All Blacks after just a few games playing domestic Rugby Union in New Zealand and excelled in the All Blacks’ Northern Hemisphere tour.
Speaking in Sydney, Williams said the World Cup remained his long-term goal but he believed boxing would help him improve as a player.
“I want to push myself, take myself out of my comfort zone instead of just having a holiday,” he told reporters.
“I feel if I do this, because it’s what I’ve done over in the last couple of years, I’m only going to grow as a player on the field.”
Williams has stopped both of his previous opponents in the first round. His latest opponent, Lewis, is a 36-year-old forklift truck driver with a record of three wins and four losses, with three of the defeats coming through knockouts.
NZRU General Manager Professional Rugby Neil Sorensen said: “It was agreed with Sonny Bill as part of his contract with the NZRU that he would be able to undertake professional boxing fights and we are comfortable with the timing of this event.”
15 Dec 2010, 13:19 pm
Stormersbooi
Funny you should mention Aerosmith.
We are doing Permament Vacation at the opening of Parly next year. Not to mention a special rendition of Dude Looks Like a Lady in honour of Gill Marcus at the Reserve Banks year end do. I will be bringing my own mistletoe for that one. Let’s hope she brings her cameltoe.
15 Dec 2010, 13:20 pm
Changing the format of the RWC is just 1 of the very many DUMB ideas from Keo. Its surely to promote rugby-obsessive idiots like ourselves to turn up here dumping our hits like 2nd-hand clothes at a charity shop.
The beauty of the RWC format IS the knockout format. It adds to the mystique of the tournament when the ‘favourites’ dont win. It makes the road to glory a little less certain when 1 team can be beaten in numerous encounters and, yet, turn up with the same 50/50 chance that every other team does.
Nah – the RWC doesnt need a different format, what it needs is more than ’5 teams’ with a solid chance of winning it. Surely the introduction of Argentina in to the 4Nations will help them be consistently stronger. Ireland & Wales are still good enough to win 2 the games in-a-row that gets them in to a Final.
What the RWC doesnt ‘prove’ is who the Best Team in the World is, the stats support this. But the knockout format atleast gives it a point-of-difference and, for that, it should be commended.
15 Dec 2010, 13:23 pm
@stormersboy : @ 195. True, it just looked like a huge upset because once mighty Goran fell so lowly in the rankings that he needed an invitation to join.
Talking about upsets, one that springs into my mind happened in 2004. My country (by no means a football nation, hey, they are mostly average at best) for once did well in the Euro qualifiers and finished as a runners-up behind Sweden beating them away in the last game. And then they met mighty Turks in the playoffs. Won 1-0 at home and then came 2-2 from 0-2 in Istanbul. Never thought I would see my country in the Euro finals, it was a miracle, no less.
15 Dec 2010, 13:23 pm
@bangkok-bok : so is Habana! every time Hoskins counts how many players of colour are in the team, he counts Habana too
15 Dec 2010, 13:23 pm
@gunther : Due looks like a lady! LOLOL nice one!
I attended an accountant’s annual dinner hosted by Miss Gill some years ago, where the Mc’s made some, well let’s just say “innapropriate” jokes (hell they are accountants what do they know about jokes anyway).
When the time came for her speach she started by taking her well prepared speach and folding it up, and launched into a tirade about how “male and pale” the profession was etc etc.
People walked out. It was classic.
More booze for me anyway…
15 Dec 2010, 13:24 pm
@Nils : Yip. It was a good one that! Gives us all hope!
15 Dec 2010, 13:25 pm
@bangkok-bok : Win the S14 then id say HM AND Plum should be considered…I dont understand the big fuss over AC after the stormers made it to the semis and a currie cup final and having nothing to show for it. The stormers always had the players to have a good chance to be competitive in the Super tournament, now that they are starting to live up to their hype an new hype is born.
15 Dec 2010, 13:25 pm
@skopiskoobidoo : Stop being a chop!! Nobody said anything about any coloured player. We said that the Boks don’t have the freedom to select the best players regardless of colour.
Your race obsession, just makes you the racist chop!!
True Boks supporters have for years said we want the best players playing. Nobody has an issue with Beast, JP Pieterson, Habana, or de Jongh, but we have had issues with justification of Tybilika, Januarie, Sephaka, Chillipip, at various stages.
When these players get selected over what is apparent to most rugby lovers then it’s a problem. So go put some ointment on that chip!!
15 Dec 2010, 13:26 pm
@gunther : I assume you’ll also be doing the Aerosmith version of umshini wami: “Jayzee’s got a gun”.
15 Dec 2010, 13:27 pm
Stormersboy
Everytime Maevis sees Auntie Gill in one of her frocks she reminds me that we just HAVE to get into the marquee business.
There’s gold in them there hills
15 Dec 2010, 13:29 pm
By this logic, why even have a world cup, Just make New Zealand world champions. and while your at it do the same thing in football and every other sport just make the number 1 ranked team world champions.
The point is , that they arent world champions until they win the worldcup. thats the way it is Keo. this is not a tri-nations or super 14 tournament it is the WORLDCUP (you need to win it to become world chapions)you need to win those once one off playoffs , if its so easy to win the Worldcup (easier than the tri-nations) then why havent the all blacks won it each and every time?
why have 2 out of Richie McCaw’s 10 losses happened at worldcups.
it should be a given that the All blacks will win it this time round, since it is at home and they have a 100% record there plus they are by far the best team in the world.
wanna take be a bet that they don’t win it ? the fact is IT IS NOT a GIVEN, thats what makes the worldcup so great.
its gonna be another 4 more long years.
15 Dec 2010, 13:29 pm
@Nils : @ 174
“unlike football where at least a dozen are within a good shout.”
Since 1954, the Winners of the football World Cup have been:-
England – 1
Germany/West Germany – 3
Brazil – 5
Argentina – 2
France – 1
Italy – 2
Spain – 1
Of the Finals during the same period, the Runners-Up have come from the same group of teams on 9 ocassions.
15 Dec 2010, 13:30 pm
@Transformation : Habana started off a pick on merit- man for years that guy was awesome. But yeah I agree with u- he is nothing more than a quota passenger now. Wayyyyy past his sell-by-date
15 Dec 2010, 13:30 pm
Ag Keo, not this tired old line of argument again.
The reason why the identity of the World Champions is, and always will be, determined periodically by a tournament that incorporates both league and knock-out elements, is very simple and is actually understood and accepted by most people – even if they can’t articulate it as well as I can
The reason is that most people would agree that being a champion is about more than just being consistent. In addition to consistency, a champion has to have a characteristic called “virtuosity” – i.e. the ability to pull a winning performance out of the bag on demand when the chips are down; and the ability to control and eliminate the disastrous “off days” that have seen the All Blacks exit the last three tournaments prematurely, despite being super-consistent in non-World Cup matches.
If an Intergalactic XV came to Earth and demanded to play our World Champions, with the enslavement or freedom of the human race depending on the outcome, who would you rather have representing Earth and ensuring that you don’t become an alien hors d’ouevre? The super-consistent Prancing Queens who will play a beautiful game but, whoops, they might just choke? Or the guys who have proved they can succeed when one slip-up means total defeat?
15 Dec 2010, 13:30 pm
@skopiskoobidoo : ag shame skop is whining into his keyboard at his non existant audience as usual….to the customary effect.
I’d fill up the next paragraph with nonsense like fuckadilly and lilly-white but really what’s the point. Besides I couldn’t bring myself to read your whole post, but since we’re onto a song theme, the imagery that I always associate you with musically is “Aqualung” by Jethro Tull…
15 Dec 2010, 13:33 pm
Katman
Absolutely.
He has stopped singing about it.
Can we then assume somebody has finally brought him his mshini?
Speaking of JZ I saw a picture of his nephew in the paper the other day.
I think I have finally got my head around the concept of Broad Based Black Economic Empowerment.
I mean the base couldn’t be any broader could it?
15 Dec 2010, 13:33 pm
@pierre : Do the Intergalactics play our new breakdown laws? And who will ref?
15 Dec 2010, 13:34 pm
@stormersboy :
15 Dec 2010, 13:35 pm
@stormersboy : Hahahaha!!!!!!
Sitting on a park bench, eyeing little girls with bad intent, snot running down his nose…
That’s skopiskoobidoo all right.
15 Dec 2010, 13:36 pm
@>^..^< katman : Craig Joubert, since he is half alien and half human.
15 Dec 2010, 13:37 pm
@pierre : @ 220
Do we have any inside word on whether the Intergalactic XV is stronger than
Fiji ?
15 Dec 2010, 13:37 pm
Stormersboy….
Old fuckadilly reminds me of Pink Floyd.
When you see it for the first time it looks quite impressive but after a while you realise that he is just another prickinthewall…
15 Dec 2010, 13:38 pm
@Black Panther : They used to be, but the Kiwis have shopped them dry.
15 Dec 2010, 13:40 pm
@pierre : 225 Exactly. I actually think of him when I hear the song now.
15 Dec 2010, 13:40 pm
@Black Panther : Apparently about the same strength as France, and look similiar to them as well.
15 Dec 2010, 13:41 pm
@gunther : lol yeah after a while we’re all “comfortably numb” to his rantings…..
15 Dec 2010, 13:41 pm
@gunther : And particularly this little piece of Pink Floyd:
Hush now baby, baby dont you cry.
Mama’s gonna check out all your girlfriends for you.
Mama wont let anyone dirty get through.
Mama’s gonna wait up until you get in.
Mama will always find out where you’ve been.
Mama’s gonna keep baby healthy and clean.
Ooooh baby oooh baby oooh baby,
You’ll always be baby to me.
15 Dec 2010, 13:42 pm
@Black Panther : @174 No argument with those stats, however, you cannot deny that the likes of The Netherlands, Portugal, Denmark, Mexico, Croatia, Serbia, etc. do have at least some chance. Especially first two and especially when majority of royal ones (like Brazil) are already out. Plus, you can expect plenty of unexpected results in he pool stage, while I hardly remember any upset of note in recent rugby World cups, apart from NZ crashing out and Fiji knocking out Wales (Pumas beating Irish or French does not fall into that category for me anymore).
15 Dec 2010, 13:44 pm
Blackpants
If we are talking about fantasy (I mean completed out there) opponents in world cup final why go with an intergalactic team?
Let’s just go with the All Blacks.
15 Dec 2010, 13:45 pm
@Nils : Correction: New Zealand crashing out no longer constitutes an “upset”.
15 Dec 2010, 13:47 pm
Poor fuckadilly he don’t need no education…
15 Dec 2010, 13:48 pm
@pierre : Of course, not. It is a source of great relief and joy in South Africa.
15 Dec 2010, 13:52 pm
Here is a question: who do u girls think will actually BEAT NZ this WC?? Come on… give me reasons why…
15 Dec 2010, 13:53 pm
@gunther :
A world series over an 18 or 24 month period (15-man dynamic is different to sevens) based on a points system will get rid of the 4 year cycle mediocrity.
You have to perform all the time, every time. If any coach falls behind during the world series, he gets replaced.
No promise of ‘judge me at the world cup’ (2 years from now) bullshit.
PLayers will also not hang around for that extra year or two too long – the dynamics won\t allow it.
Test match rugby will also not take a back seat to provincial or club comps (super rugby & heineken cup) as is currently the case.
Rugby can be taken to all corners of the world (as is the case with Sevens at the moment).
Commercially I think it will be an absolute bomb of a product
15 Dec 2010, 13:54 pm
As for this knock-out comp, do what cricket does, the Champions Cup or whatever they call it.
Best 8 or 12 teams in the world based on ranking go play in a knock out thing.
15 Dec 2010, 13:54 pm
@Cheetah 4 Eva : so why does SARU and all unions not rather look at the potential player base in the country. there are 40 odd million black people living here. why are we so intent on selecting players from the 4 million white people.
I think we are missing a trick. If we do development properly and focus on academies and coaching in the black areas we will do well. Even if just 10 % of that population succeed it is still equal to the entire white population.
Problem with what i said is that it requires hard work, thinking, vision, buy-inn from various fronts and the reality is that its asking too much in our current rugby environment.
if Habs can be international player of the year, imagine the opportunity if we harvested more of those type of talents from the 40 million pool.
15 Dec 2010, 14:05 pm
Pissant
That’s where you are wrong the champions trophy is a complete dog of a tournament.
What makes you think an 18 month championship would become a commercial success? Even assuming you had a global season? Which we don’t.
Sevens has the format it does because there is no other form of international competition.
Incidentally I watched the first ever sevens world cup at murrayfield in 92 or 93. Before sevens had this world series.
It was awesome. I remember joost, andre Joubert and Chester all being there.
15 Dec 2010, 14:12 pm
@gunther :
What makes me think that? Well simple, look at how Sevens is growing…
And what is the difference between the champions trophy and the world cup?
The fact that lobsided pool stages are done away with?
15 Dec 2010, 14:13 pm
Pisser
If you want to improve consistency and standards between the world cups then give coach a performance clause and incentivise the players.
He’ll give the top ranked team a cup at the end of each year.
But an 18 month or 24 month championship?
Fuggedaboudit…
15 Dec 2010, 14:13 pm
@moedeloos : As wingers maybe, but how many world class locks of colour can u name? That new lock from England maybe- he IS good but not of our ethnic strain. I honestly believe DNA has a HUGE impact. yes, there are some superb black athletes in the US – how many of them have a heritage from the Southern part of Africa? None. Their forefathers came from central and Northern Africa where they are bigger and stronger. Why can’t white ppl compete in long distance running or look like tools in the NBA? Same argument. Besides that French loosie (Serge)- how many GREAT forwards can u name who are originally from Africa?
15 Dec 2010, 14:14 pm
@gunther : 237 I think what you meant to say was “Poor fuckadilly he don’t have no education…”
15 Dec 2010, 14:15 pm
@bangkok-bok : Luke Watson
15 Dec 2010, 14:18 pm
Stormersboy
Surely the have part is implicit
15 Dec 2010, 14:19 pm
@stormersboy : LOL! I’m from PE so I need to start warming myself towards Luke
I will always be a WP fan but I can’t wait to see the red and black hoops 
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