Test of discipline for breakdown bandits
7 Jun 2011
JON CARDINELLI says that while the Bulls have been inconsistent at the tackle, the Stormers will be equally wary about conceding breakdown penalties at Newlands.
The Stormers were one of the more disciplined sides in 2010, and after 14 games in the 2011 Super Rugby tournament, they’ve conceded 140 penalties. By comparison, the Bulls have conceded a debilitating 183.
While that figure covers all facets of play, they have struggled for accuracy and discipline at the breakdown. It’s little surprise that the Stormers have conceded fewer penalties and won more matches. Had the Bulls been more accurate, they may not be in such a precarious position.
Opensider Deon Stegmann has come in for a lot of criticism, and deservedly so. The Bulls’ No 6 has conceded 22 penalties, a figure that goes some way to justifying concerns that he’s battled under the breakdown law interpretations. He still makes some important turnovers, but when he gets it wrong, he costs his team territory and points.
The Stormers’ Francois Louw has started one more match than Stegmann and conceded 16 penalties. Stegmann is recognised as a classic opensider, and with the change to the breakdown laws, this type of player has become something of an endangered species. Louw is more an all-rounder than a specialist, as he boasts other strengths aside from those on the ground.
Louw will give the Stormers multiple options when they host the Bulls this Saturday, but there will be a big focus on the discipline of the respective packs. It’s bound to be a typically bloody derby, and while the bigger boys are slugging it out, Louw and Stegmann will employ all sorts of tricks to give their side the edge.
The game will be refereed by one of the world’s best in Jonathan Kaplan, who’s unlikely to tolerate much nonsense at the breakdown. The pressure’s on Louw and Stegmann to walk the line of legality, as a poor decision and resultant penalty could cost their teams dearly in a close game.
Of the two flankers, Stegmann has struggled for consistency, and he will struggle once again if his team fails to get front-foot ball. The Stormers were dominant at the collisions in the last match between the two sides, and this dominance forced the Bulls to concede twice as many penalties overall.
Peter Grant was on hand that day to convert the pressure into points, but it’s yet to be confirmed whether he will play in this fixture or not. If the Stormers do manage to replicate their earlier effort, Kurt Coleman will need to cash in on those opportunities.
Coleman kicked five-out-of-six last week, but there’s a big difference between the pressure in a Stormers vs Rebels match and a Stormers vs Bulls derby. Newlands is sold out, and there is much more at stake.
The Bulls are fortunate to have Morne Steyn in their ranks, as his goal-kicking accuracy will allow them to take most opportunities on offer. Nobody will have forgotten the penalty kick in the 2009 Currie Cup semi-final at Newlands that ended Western Province’s domestic hopes. It was an extremely difficult attempt from the right-hand touchline and some 45m out, but Steyn’s success served to show that when he’s in form, he’ll punish you from anywhere.
The Stormers must be favourites to boss the collisions, but they need to be accurate in their approach to the breakdown. And if the Bulls are on the back foot and Stegmann does impede, they need to ensure that they don’t miss point-scoring opportunities because Steyn won’t be as generous at the other end.
207 Comments
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7 Jun 2011, 19:46 pm
@President_of_the_Sharks_rugby_experts(sharks_lover)-186:
Yeah, I’m well mate. And you?
What Grant doesn’t understand is that all the teams have their destiny is in their own hands right now.
And that’s the way it should be.
7 Jun 2011, 20:44 pm
7 Jun 2011, 20:50 pm
@Treehugger(Treehugger)-202: just banter young lady….just fun tongue in cheek stuff.
7 Jun 2011, 20:53 pm
SuperSport apparently thought it was 18 penalties and not 22 to Stegmann.
Anyway, just using Ruggastats we see the following:
(Of course these stats don’t indicate whether penalties are conceded for dissent, offside, foul-play etc. )
I don’t remember seeing either of Stegmann or Louw high tackling anyone, being offside at the lineout, not binding to the scrum or holding after being tackled. Without review each video carefully you wouldn’t know how many were conceded for general offside , but it would be around 3-5.
But then most are conceded at the breakdown (tackle +assists included), by far. Things such as holding, not rolling, sealing, hands in, off feet, incorrect entry, etc.
So out off 16-3 (+-) and 22- 3:
Stegmann: Tackles made: 226 (175/51)
96% success rate. (10 missed)
Louw: Tackles made: 171 (148/23)
91% success rate (missed 16)
Stegmann: Breakdown (A/D): 474 (309/165)
Louw: Breakdown (A/D): 345 (212/133)
So penalties per total breakdown is:
Stegmann: (700/19) : a Penalty every 37 breakdowns
Louw : (516/13): a Penalty every 40 breakdowns.
So Stegmann isn’t the liability he is made out to be. He simply does much more than Louw.
It’s fine to say Louw concedes less penalties. But Louw does much less work than Stegmann in the area where the vast majority of the penalties have been conceded. I would rather have the hard worker in my team.
Has anyone complained about Coenie Oosthuizen leading the penalty count in the S15? Has SuperSport displayed his penalty count before a match? I didn’t watch every Cheetahs match, but I bet they didn’t. Why didn’t SuperSport instead of displaying at the start of the Bulls-Tahs match that
“Stegmann has conceded 18 penalties in the Super 15″
rather say:
“Stegmann has made the most clean-outs in the Super 15 (by all players)”
or
“Stegmann is the leading South African tackler, and 3rd overall in the Super15 (Assists included)”
…Why not?
Furthermore, Cardinelli says Louw started in 1 match more, but Stegmann has only played in 2 full matches (in both those he made 20+ tackles and hit 50 rucks), Kuun usually replaces Stegmann in the final quarter.
7 Jun 2011, 20:59 pm
@bryce_in_oz(bryce_in_oz)-79:
No…you make a mockery of yourself. “Fetching” isn’t the “Fetcher’s” main purpose, as you think.
7 Jun 2011, 22:12 pm
Always nice to have the chairman of Stegmann Superioris in attendance. How’s that petition going to have him declared the eighth natural wonder of the world?
8 Jun 2011, 08:25 am
@Agile T*t-Tyrant(Anairetes agilis)-204: Love the way you use the stats to support your argument, rather than illuminate it.
First is was the simple penalty count, when you thought Steggies had less than FLO. (he doesn’t)
Then it was penalties per minute played, when you thought Steggies had less. (he doesn’t)
Now it’s this convaluted formula.
Fact is fella, you cannot measure the two players objectively. The measurement will always be subjective, and come down to who wants to pick him.
Steggies isn;t a bad player, we get that, but he definately has weaknesses. We get that, you don’t.
PS we get that FLO has weaknesses too.
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