Moment of reckoning for Super Rugby hopefuls
15 Jun 2011
Keo.co.za looks at the permutations that will shape the semi-finals and play-off race.
Four teams could potentially host a semi-final and in doing so, earn a much-needed rest weekend. Furthermore, the scrap to get into positions five and six will make for compelling viewing, with the Bulls-Sharks fixture on Saturday the big one.
What follows are all the potential scenarios, broken down by individual teams.
STORMERS
- Win in Bloemfontein against the Cheetahs ensures a home semi-final.
- A bonus-point win and Reds defeat without them picking up two bonus points, and the Cape side will finish top.
- Defeat to the Cheetahs and a Crusaders win will see them drop to third, unless the Sharks or Bulls win by an inconceivable margin to steal the conference.
- Draw without a four-try bonus point and a Crusaders victory and they will finish third.
REDS
- Win over Chiefs in Hamilton secures top spot.
- Defeat without a losing bonus point, and a Stormers five pointer, means they’ll drop to second. That’s the lowest they can finish, even if the Crusaders win with a bonus point to end level on 62pts (the Reds will have had more wins, which is the primary criteria to separate sides who finish level on points).
- A draw is enough for them to finish first on the combined log.
CRUSADERS
- Beat the Hurricanes in Wellington and they win the NZ conference, guaranteeing they finish no lower than third. The highest they can end is second, given that, even if the Reds lose, they still won’t overtake them for total wins.
- Defeat for the seven-time champions and a victory for the Blues in Auckland means the Blues will top the NZ conference.
- Defeat without a losing bonus point would see the Bulls overtake them if they take a full haul from Loftus.
- A four-try draw against the Canes and victory for the Blues would see the NZ conference decided on points difference. The same scenario, but with a five pointer for the Blues would see them clinch the conference.
BLUES
- The Blues will hope for the Hurricanes and Cheetahs to do a job on the Crusaders and Stormers. If those teams lose and they win against the Highlanders in Auckland, they will finish second and host a semi-final.
- However, even if they bank five points, but the Stormers lose with two bonus points, the highest the Blues can finish is third.
- A straight draw (i.e without scoring four tries) will see whoever wins at Loftus overtake them, while a draw with a four-try bonus point means that the Bulls will have to get all the points on offer to finish above them. In the same scenario, the Sharks would have to win with a bonus point and then hope for a superior points difference to finish fourth.
BULLS
- The defending champions will secure a place in the play-off with victory.
- Realistically, the highest they can finish is fourth. Technically they could still win the conference but would have to beat the Sharks by a country mile and hope the Cheetahs restrict the Stormers and score plenty against them.
- If they lose and the Waratahs win against the Brumbies in Sydney, the Bulls are out.
- If they draw and the Waratahs win they’ll finish sixth.
- If the Waratahs lose without a bonus point, even if Victor Matfield’s men lose, they are assured a play-off place.
- However, if the Waratahs lose with two bonus points, and the Bulls lose with none, the Bulls’ tournament will be over.
SHARKS
- A win seals a place in the play-off. Like the Bulls, realistically the highest they could finish is fourth.
- If they lose and the Waratahs win they’re out.
- In the event of a Waratahs win, a draw could still see the Sharks qualify, provided they manage a four-try bonus point and denied the Bulls one.
- If the Sharks and Waratahs drew, the former would have to hope the Sydney side don’t do so with a four-try bonus point, in which case points difference would decide the final play-off spot.
WARATAHS
- If they win, they will qualify for the play-offs.
- Defeat without any points means they watch the play-offs from their lounges.
- If they lose but collect a point, they must hope that the Sharks go down at Loftus without any bonus points. However, two points in defeat in the same scenario would see them qualify ahead of John Plumtree’s men.
- A draw will see them sneak into the play-offs provided that if the Sharks lose, they do so having picked up no points.
- If the Durban franchise do pick up a losing bonus point, and the Waratahs achieve a straight draw, points difference will decide the sixth placed finisher.
- In any scenario where the Waratahs finish level on points with the Bulls, the Pretoria franchise will qualify ahead of them based on their superior number of wins.
27 Comments
15 Jun 2011, 07:24 am
stormers!!!!!!!!!!!
15 Jun 2011, 07:25 am
All to play for with 1 game left!
Fantastic
15 Jun 2011, 07:25 am
some breaking news…
Bulls to make a massive bid for Johan Sadie.
And Stormers look set to sign Francois Hougaard for 2012 campaign
15 Jun 2011, 07:28 am
@grant10(grant10)-1: Did you watch the baby boks last night Grant?
15 Jun 2011, 07:30 am
@grant10(grant10)-3: I’d rather keep Sadie.
Although I’d really like to get Hougaard too.
15 Jun 2011, 08:20 am
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-4: missed it mate
15 Jun 2011, 08:33 am
@grant10(grant10)-6: Some great prospects for the future. Eben Etsebeth had another big game, drove the ball up really well, also buldozed over for a try. He’s going to be one for the future for sure. He also stands head and shoulders above all the other players, Ireland and SA, literrally.
Carr, the young WP player also played a great game, and Goosen the Flyhalf put over a drop goal from our own half that would make Francois Steyn envious.
All in all a good Springbok performance, although Ireland looked great running with ball in hand. Some Brian O Driscoll replacements in that team for sure!
I see new Zealand are looking formidable with a 90 odd points win too, so it’ll be a very interresting contest come semis etc.
We still have to play England in our group who are level with us on points, having won 2 and also collected 2 bonus points along the way.
They are next up I think.
15 Jun 2011, 08:54 am
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-7: He is big hey. I reckon he stands at 203 cm. I commented on the Baby Boks thread that he will be the first bok Tygerberg High will produce. They came close with Frank Wagenstroom but he only went up till U/21 level. He is now playing Tygerberg RFC.
When is the England game?
15 Jun 2011, 08:57 am
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-7: yep, saturday @ 20:00 while the stormers take on the cheetahs!
the bokkies played well but i think they need to be tight on the discipline side of things cause we GIFTED them easy 12pts in the 1st half by conceding silly penalties – goosen needs to learn how to roll away after a tackle, got pinged twice for the same thing.
plus a bit of counter-rucking would’ve worked quite well, as the irish players were falling on the wrong side and this preventing the ball from being placed & getting away with it.
but all in all an encouraging performance!
15 Jun 2011, 09:16 am
@Transformation(Transformation)-9: I saw that from Goosen. Where is he currently contracted? The unions must be itching to sign him.
15 Jun 2011, 09:17 am
@Sasuke(Sasuke)-8: mail me at stormerskeo@gmail.com. I will send you a photo that shows just how big he really is.
15 Jun 2011, 09:47 am
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-11:
I think you should rather keep that one to yourself.
15 Jun 2011, 09:54 am
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-10: I stand to be corrected but I’m sure the commentator said he was contracted to Cheetahs?
He made a 67 metre kick a short while back, that drop kick of his was excellent!
15 Jun 2011, 09:55 am
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-10: Free State. He seems loyal though.
15 Jun 2011, 10:03 am
@foreverrugga(foreverrugga)-13: This kid will be a Bok soon.
15 Jun 2011, 10:05 am
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-10: cheetahs
15 Jun 2011, 10:05 am
@gunther is feeling bullish(gunther)-12: lol
15 Jun 2011, 10:08 am
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-7: thanks for feedback!
15 Jun 2011, 10:10 am
@Sasuke(Sasuke)-15: He definitely looks like potential Bok material at the moment, hopefully he can go all the way. I also think Eben Etsebeth is playing damn well.
15 Jun 2011, 10:12 am
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-10: Yes he is contracted to the Cheetahs, and quite a few of their age group players have been selected for the CC, and could give some nice depth going into next years Super 15
FB: Hennie Daniller, Riaan Smit, Nico Scheepers. Wings: Jongi Nokwe, Rayno Benjamin, Philip Burger, Cameron Jacobs. Centers: Andries Strauss, Corné Uys, Morgan Newman, Robert Ebersohn, Philip Snyman. FH: Sias Ebersohn, Johan Goosen. SH: Tewis de Bruyn, Piet van Zyl, Tertuis Carse.
Loosies: Johan Wessels, Pieter Myburgh, Heinrich Brüssow, Juan Smith, Philip van der Walt, Lappies Labuschagné, Ashley Johnson. Locks: Francois Uys, Wilhelm Steenkamp, Izak van der Westhuizen, Waltie Vermeulen. Props: Coenie Oosthuizen, Marcel van der Merwe, Schalk van der Merwe, WP Nel, Kobus Calldo, Trevor Nyakane. Hookers: Adriaan Strauss, Skipper Badenhorst, PW van Vuuren, Michael van Vuuren en Hercu Liebenberg.
Also a possibility of Boom Prinsloo currently playing with the 7′s being used. hercu is Tiaan Liebenberg’s younger brother, and PW van Vuuren, was chosen as the players player at a coaching course in NZ last year.
Looks promising!
15 Jun 2011, 10:12 am
Goosen is contracted by the Cheetahs…however, with Sias playing the way he does, I won’t be surprised seeing him with a Cheetahs contract playing for Griquas…
15 Jun 2011, 10:13 am
@Cheetah 4 Eva(Cheetah 4 Eva)-20: A bit bare at lock isn’t it? I rate Wilhelm Steenkamp and F.Uys, but after that?
15 Jun 2011, 10:28 am
Agree, though Walti Vermeulen and Izak vd westhuizen are coming along nicely, they have just been injured. Hope roodt stay with the Griquas!
15 Jun 2011, 10:30 am
@thesaint(thesaint)-21: He will stay, he is only 19, still lots of time for him to develop.
15 Jun 2011, 10:31 am
@Cheetah 4 Eva(Cheetah 4 Eva)-20:
Viljoen and Pretorius are big losses, they brought a new dimension to the Cheetahs.
I also wonder how long Harold and co will hang onto the Ebersohns.
15 Jun 2011, 10:47 am
so many permutations heading in to the last Round of S15. And THEN the Playoffs and Finals.
The Conference system may not be perfect but its hard to disagree that it provides so much more excitement for so many more fans at this stage of the season. The big cheeses at SANZAR will be, no doubt, desperately hoping the Waratahs make it thereby ensuring each nation has 2 teams to capture as much fan interest and sponsorship coverage heading in to the Semis and beyond.
15 Jun 2011, 10:50 am
@willievz(willievz)-25: Yes, It’s interesting that once again a host of Cheetahs players are on the shopping lists. The Cheetahs are arguably the biggest producer of senior rugby talent!
The toyota sponsorship, plus i understand the Free State government has also realised the value the Cheetahs add to the Province. I think the other Unions will have to spend alot more to recruit Cheetah players.
Ebersohn’s market value would have tripled by now.
I also think alot of Cheetah players will want to stay, the vibe is positive after a successful season if all factors are considered. There is a good thing brewing at the Cheetahs. The golden era of 2004/5/6/7 is looming
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