Stormers guilty of unnecessary gamble
30 Jun 2011
JON CARDINELLI says that by adopting an overly defensive mindset the Stormers run the risk of becoming predictable and thus increasingly beatable in Saturday’s semi-final at Newlands.
On Wednesday, Allister Coetzee tried to justify Conrad Jantjes’s selection at fullback. The Stormers’ coach stated that Jantjes was a good defender and a sound tactical kicker. He said that in a territorial battle at a rain-ravaged Newlands, Jantjes could have an important role to play.
On the basis of Jantjes’s form, I’d argue that Coetzee’s faith in the player as a fine positional fullback and great line-kicker is misplaced. I’d also argue that the alternative, Gio Aplon, is just as capable of playing a tactical kicking game, and that starting Aplon at fullback will give the Stormers more attacking, counter-attacking and kicking options.
But the Stormers seem determined to stick to an overly defensive approach. They seem determined to limit their options and favour reactionary tactics. Some will call it conservative, safe and necessary given the expected conditions and pressure of a semi-final. I call it putting all your eggs into one basket.
While the Stormers will need to be sharp on defence, they will also need to take whatever scoring opportunities come their way. Defence will be important, but they can’t stonewall the Crusaders for 80 minutes. There needs to be some variation, or at least the prospect of an attack.
Jantjes has struggled to impose himself on attack since returning from a serious leg injury last year. The opposition don’t recognise him as a threat, and are content to kick on him and wait for the error or the predictable kick return.
It’s a tactic that worked for the Bulls in their victory at Newlands three weeks ago. They kicked relentlessly on Jantjes and Bryan Habana, and when the Stormers’ pair didn’t lose the ball, they inevitably turned it over when they attempted to counter-attack.
Most teams will be wary about kicking on Aplon. While he has done well on the wing for both the Stormers and South Africa, he is better utilised at fullback. On attack, he can come into the backline on both sides of the field. On the counter-attack, he can turn a poor kick into a try at the other end. And in a territorial exchange, Aplon’s underrated left boot can earn the Stormers valuable metres.
There’s nothing special about Janjtes on attack and nothing imposing about his kicking game either. The Stormers’ decision to play him at 15 will be cheered by the Crusaders, as this will allow the visitors to employ their own pressure tactics.
The Crusaders will attempt to pressure the Stormers’ back three with a good kick chase or alternatively wait for Jantjes to kick the ball back. Since the Cantabrians have an imposing defensive system of their own and a superior halfback combination that boast all the necessary attacking skills as well match-winning tactical-kicking accuracy, they have every right to expect that this approach will yield the desired results.
Coetzee argues that if the Stormers’ overly defensive approach doesn’t work, there is still the fall-back option of switching to all-out attack in the second half. In that event, Deon Fourie and Schalk Brits will come off the bench, and Aplon will move to fullback.
But what Coetzee fails to remember is that the Crusaders are particularly good at punishing desperate teams. They crept ahead of the Sharks through the goal-kicking of Dan Carter, and once they had established an eight-point lead, the Sharks were forced to take chances. Kieran Read intercepted a wild pass from Pat Lambie, and from there the Crusaders continued to feed off mistakes caused by the visitors’ increasing desperation.
The Stormers would have been better served to start Aplon at fullback against the Crusaders. They will still be favourites, but starting Jantjes at fullback means the pack and the halfbacks will have to work doubly hard to ensure his deficiencies are not exposed to a game-costing degree.
210 Comments
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30 Jun 2011, 09:49 am
@Robzim(Robzim)-99:
why not…..januarie has kept better players out, jantjies is keeping a better player out. Hell, timotei Shampoo will have you believe that Burger is keeping better players out.
30 Jun 2011, 09:50 am
Fatigue and travel won’t be a problem for the Crusaders. These guys are professional athletes and the Crusaders have been traveling during the entire Super Rugby competition so this won’t come in to play. If by any chance it does then look on the Crusaders reserves bench and see why they have players who can make an impact.
Ben Franks
Quentin Macdonald
Luke Romano
Matt Todd
Kahn Fotuali’i
Matt Berquist
Ryan Crotty
Oh, I forgot to mention the thousands of Crusaders fans to make them feel at home. : )
30 Jun 2011, 09:50 am
@Tacitus(Deucalion)-100:
Plan B…any Plan B so long as it replaces Plan A.
how frikken funny is that?
30 Jun 2011, 09:51 am
@Tacitus(Deucalion)-100:
You truly are a sour, miserable old pr*ck arent you… The whole country got behind your Blou Balle in past seasons, why? Because they were flying the SA flag. Just like the Stormers are now. Get over yourself you miserable crout.
30 Jun 2011, 09:52 am
The Bulls fans are showing their true colours here…
30 Jun 2011, 09:53 am
@Dazzler(Dazzler)-104:
You’re right. Join me for a heartwarming rendition of Kumbaya?
30 Jun 2011, 09:54 am
@WP Till I Die(WP-Forever)-105:
Agreed… makes me seriously not to want to support them against overseas oppostion in the future. But fortunately I’m not a sad old c*nt like some of the Bulls fans…
30 Jun 2011, 09:54 am
The Crusaders are the royalty of super rugby, 7 titles, 2 runners up medals, 10th straight semi final daylight is second , Crusaders by 10-15.
30 Jun 2011, 09:56 am
The reality is, its going to be a cracker… hell of a tough game that could go either way. I just hope it goes the Stormers way…
30 Jun 2011, 09:57 am
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA)-108:
No one can argue with that.
The Bulls are probably joint 2nd – although the Blues might still be slightly ahead of them due to more play-off appearances?
As for the Stormers…
30 Jun 2011, 09:58 am
@kelefua(kelefua)-102:
it definately will not be as much of a factor as a side that has to travel west to east.
science has proved that.
30 Jun 2011, 09:59 am
@WP Till I Die(WP-Forever)-105:
What a bunch of sour poor losers, if any NZ team was playing in the semi’s they would get the rest of the countries full support, having been to a game at Loftus before I can see where it comes from.
30 Jun 2011, 10:00 am
@Tacitus(Deucalion)-106:
Today, you disappoint me.
30 Jun 2011, 10:00 am
@Dazzler(Dazzler)-104:
oh what pish, the whole country certainly did not get behind the bulls.
All you need as evidence is to listen to joel stranskys commentary to realize that. Or bobby’s or matthew pierce or etc.
30 Jun 2011, 10:01 am
@Tacitus(Deucalion)-110:
Bulls probably second, why don’t you get behind the Stomers ( pun) and support them?
30 Jun 2011, 10:03 am
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA)-112:
New Zealand have a different setup. Your players are centrally contracted, and the teams are therefore not in such a competitive fight for survival as our teams are.
If the Crusaders win the trophy it has no detrimental effect on the Bulls. If the Stormers win it, or go through to a home final etc, then it means:
More sponorship money to the Stormers, hence more money to poach Bulls players, and less ability for the Bulls to poach Stormers players,
More gate takings for the Stormers, boosting the above point,
Probably a shift in the support of the “swing voter” supporters in the middle of the SA rugby spectrum, who simply follow winners and don’t have such a traditional attachment to a specific team. This means more supporter jersey sales and all other financial benefits associated with it, and again, boosts the Stormers at the expense of the Bulls, who currently are the only SA team to have won the Super 14.
It is far more complex than just “getting behind your country”. There is a massive strategic aspect to it.
30 Jun 2011, 10:04 am
Brig a deer. Enjoy the tennis on Saturday afternoon. heh heh heh
30 Jun 2011, 10:06 am
@Tacitus(Deucalion)-116:
OK
I’m convinced
On the Tacitus shopping list this weekend : one Crusaders shirt.
30 Jun 2011, 10:09 am
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA)-112:
having been to Loftus you are no doubt really bitter and jealous now.
a full house for a semi with great partizan support.
not some bloke and his dog like in auckland last week.
Oh, and what does “I can see where it comes from “…actually mean? That sounded very condecending.
Personally, I find some lunatic riding a horse dressed as a knight around a rugby field with the horse dropping poop all over the place……very weird?
it’s no wonder no side ever wins there, the opposing players spend half the game dodging poop with some fckwit kiwi ref resetting scrums over the poop 20 times a game. The home Crusaders are naturally quite used to lying in the poop which gives them a distinct advantage.
30 Jun 2011, 10:10 am
@Tacitus(Deucalion)-110:
What are you going to do tomorrow afternoon when most local rugby fans will be supporting the Stormers? Tick one below:
Polish your blue bull helmet
Put a new Pierre Spies poster on your wall
Do research on the Hekkies’s hurdling times
Read the autobiography of Brigadier van Zyl (the real one)
Watch tapes of the bulls from the days they were still winning competitions
All of above
30 Jun 2011, 10:13 am
@Nautigal(Nautigal)-117:
nope,I will be enjoying Craig Jouberts performance. Stormers dodn’t like him.
Quite strange,I think he is the best in Sa. So there you go.
but if he gives one penalty against the stormers Burger is going to flip sy moer.
could be some great entertainment value outside of the actual rugby on the weekend.
30 Jun 2011, 10:14 am
Stormers by 3
30 Jun 2011, 10:16 am
@Robzim(Robzim)-120:
lol, watch tapes of the bulls winning trophys?
well, that was just last year.At Loftus, against the pretenders,in the s14 final
not 10 years ago….and a meazly CC win at that against a dodgy sharks outfit.
30 Jun 2011, 10:17 am
@Brigadier Van Zyl(Brigadier Van Zyl)-98: @Tacitus(Deucalion)-100:
How many knockout games have teams who’ve voyaged the Indian Ocean won in Super Rugby history?
Crusaders are travel fatigued and slept in hotel rooms all year long.
Stormers had a week off and relaxed at home.
Advantage Stormers, par excellence.
30 Jun 2011, 10:17 am
@CoachPete(CoachPete)-122:
Hi Coach,
U still in Hawai?
Any waves today?
Saturday is going to be a baptism of fire for the future bok captain
30 Jun 2011, 10:17 am
@Brigadier Van Zyl(Brigadier Van Zyl)-119:
A man on a horse is far less weird than some of the “quality” folk you lot get at Loftus. Jerry Springer would be in his wonderland at Loftus.
30 Jun 2011, 10:18 am
@willievz(willievz)-124:
I can only remember the highlanders in ’99 against the stormers
30 Jun 2011, 10:18 am
Gotta laugh at these two…
For someone who takes his nick-name, rather presumptuously, from a famous Roman author… known for his boldness and wit… Tacitus-on-keo has never exhibited either attribute in all his rambling, contradictory, bitter and cowardly posts on this site…
A typical fair-weather bulls FAN… who shouts loudest when his team wins and shouts bitterly when they don’t (if he has the courage to show his face at all)…
He and sidekick TbeBrig are so *****-scared the Stormers may just win they just can’t help themselves or control the bile welling up in their throats… They resort to the lowest common denominator and fall back on insults and schoolboy humour…
Brave and wise okes these two…
They just prove that you can take the boys out of the class room… but you can’t put class into the boys…!!
Hehehe…
Win or lose… the Stormers are the best team in SA this right now… The bulls are third best… In seasons past Tac-n-Brig would tell us they would judge the Stormers over the whole season… not just over one or two games…
Well now, their chickens have come home to roost, we are the top side over the whole season and these dishonest cowards haven’t the integrity to live by their own words…
But why does that not surprise us…!!
LOL…
30 Jun 2011, 10:18 am
@Robzim(Robzim)-120: hahahaha nice one matey!
30 Jun 2011, 10:21 am
@Robzim(Robzim)-125:
Yes still here Waves are small and a bit mushy
Yeah time for Koster to step up on the big stage
I think if Skalk does his job and stays out of back line and Koster carries the ball it will be fine.
Skalk needs to put DC off his game totally
I think starting RM may not be a good idea
30 Jun 2011, 10:21 am
It is a free country, I guess you can support who you want on Saturday.
But my two pence is that supporting a team from another country playing against your countrymen is not in the national interest.
Provincialism is at the heart of SA rugby problems, and why will never be a team with an 85% + winning ratio like the ABs.
English football has the same problem, on a much larger scale. Which is partly why they fail to bring home the bacon in World Cups.
Club first, country second?
Nee kyk, ons het nog ‘n ver pad om te loop in die land.
30 Jun 2011, 10:21 am
@Dazzler(Dazzler)-126:
yeah, a lot of quality folk in the cheap seats at newlands as well.
why, just a while ago I heard some oke say this….
“jaai moer, joe ma vok visse da baai die vokken harba”
…yes, it’s true.
I think he was one of those Cape Crusader blokes to be fair.
So he could have been talking Kiwi for all I know.
30 Jun 2011, 10:22 am
@Brigadier Van Zyl(Brigadier Van Zyl)-127:
Yes, famous (or infamous) victory that.
The Sharks also won their semi against the Reds in Brisbane way back in 1996.
Those are the only two occasions.
30 Jun 2011, 10:24 am
@willievz(willievz)-131:
Anyone can support any team at any time I dont have a problem with that .
its when the group that is supporting a Kiwi team, boos the local home team, then I have issues with that big time
30 Jun 2011, 10:25 am
@willievz(willievz)-131:
oh come on Willie.
the Boks always come first.
just so long as the make all the bulls boks.
you see exactly the same from the sharks and stormers.
30 Jun 2011, 10:25 am
@ufo(ufo)-128: Good times
30 Jun 2011, 10:27 am
@ufo(ufo)-128:
it’s true, the stormers are top of the SA conference.
but we will take satisfaction in buggering up your lot 3 weeks ago.
30 Jun 2011, 10:27 am
In all the years I have read/blogged here, Tacitus has never had anything positive or even nice to say about the Western Cape, its people or its rugby, no matter what the situation.
Considering the massive improvement in WP rugby in the last 2 years, when compared to the last decade for example, one would think that anyone who knows and loves rugby would have to give credit where credit is due, yet nothing from Tactitus.
This hatred even goes down to the commentators it seems. If its an English commentator, then it is insinuated that there is always anti-Bulls bias involved.
This is just utterly immature, I dont know how else to describe it.
Tactitus, if you have such a bias against the Western Cape and its people, why do you even come onto this blog, considering, in your own words, this blog is nothing but a mouthpiece of WP rugby. In fact why do you even speak English then?
30 Jun 2011, 10:28 am
@CoachPete(CoachPete)-134:
We have a ‘group’ right here on keo booing the home team…
But I agree… let whoever support whoever…
I feel better knowing that Tac-n-Brig are not supporting the stormers… would feel kinda dirty if they did…
@Robzim(Robzim)-120:
very funny post bud…
30 Jun 2011, 10:29 am
Can someone remind me how the Crusaders team that won at Newlands earlier in the season compares to the one that the Stormers will face this weekend?
I suspect there might be a few personnel changes – and not for the worse.
30 Jun 2011, 10:29 am
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-136:
for sure Bud…
30 Jun 2011, 10:30 am
@ufo(ufo)-128:
no we are not at all scared of the stormers winning the s15.
the quality of rugby has been particularly poor this entire season.
It would be about right for the Stormers or some other bullsh1t side like the reds to win it.
30 Jun 2011, 10:34 am
@Dazzler(Dazzler)-126: You are hardly dazzling anybody with the kak you are talking here. Bly stil man jy is donners irriterend.
All the best to the rest of the Stormers boytjies. I am a bull in ‘murg en been’ but hey we need to to keep the spoils on this side of the world. Moer hulle hard!!!
30 Jun 2011, 10:36 am
@WP Till I Die(WP-Forever)-105: why does it always have to be about colour?
30 Jun 2011, 10:36 am
@Stawm(Stawm)-138:
so you deny that Stransky,Bobby and Pierce show any bias towards the stormers or sharks when commentating on a bulls game?
for the record, I have never booed any SA side.
But I enjoy a good windup….and the thongs down in the Cape appear to be riding high up under the jeans in the cape this morning!
30 Jun 2011, 10:38 am
@KWAGGA ROBERTSE(KWAGGA ROBERTSE)-143:
That’s cool bud, appreciate that fact you supporting the Stormers. I always support the Bulls in situations like this… My gripe is not with all Bulls fans, only a few… i mention no names
30 Jun 2011, 10:42 am
@Dazzler(Dazzler)-146: Like the way you say ‘always’
but ja we had a kak one this year. Too little too late. Anyways all the best,
Kots oor my skoene as Richie weer n donnerse trofee vashou………..
30 Jun 2011, 10:43 am
@schalk brits has got more x-factor than os(Transformation)-144:
Transie, is that you, madala?
30 Jun 2011, 10:44 am
@KWAGGA ROBERTSE(KWAGGA ROBERTSE)-147:
When it comes to flying the SA flag, I ALWAYS support the SA team… (i do find it harder to support the Sharks though i wont lie!
)
30 Jun 2011, 10:44 am
@Brigadier Van Zyl(Brigadier Van Zyl)-119:
“The home Crusaders are naturally quite used to lying in the poop which gives them a distinct advantage.”
Ag nee man Brig. This is low, even for you.
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