No price on Bok Bs
21 Jul 2011
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match ups and picks the winner for the Test in Sydney.
There has been belligerent rhetoric from the Springboks’ camp this week, the bulk of it focused on repelling the suggestion they are a B team. This is perplexing given how self-evident it is that they are, and while the romance of an upset win seems to have bewildered them, the more measured among us accept that they will struggle against a strong Wallabies outfit.
Synergy on attack and particularly defence will be their biggest challenge. The Boks have moved quickly to dismiss this as a concern, claiming the two weeks they spent in camp in Cape Town remedied any potential challenges in this regard. Undoubtedly it would have aided them, but not significantly enough to be optimistic about an upset victory.
That said, with heavy showers predicted, the Wallabies’ margin of victory won’t be as big as it would have been in conditions that suited their preferred expansive approach. It will also make the Springboks’ kick-chase method a more viable strategy than it otherwise would have been.
Execution will be key in this regard. A poorly weighted punt will offer the Wallabies’ backs like Kurtley Beale, James O’Connor, Quade Cooper (who is expected to defend at fullback on South Africa’s ball) and Digby Ioane – all adept in broken field situations – opportunities to punish them.
I also have reservations about the selected 22′s ability to physically dominate the Wallabies on attack or defence in general play, as well as at scrum time. Danie Rossouw will be the primary strike runner in a back row that otherwise doesn’t inspire confidence of a gainline assault, while among the tight five the Boks are relying on Test rookies to assist in bossing this facet of play. Expect Australia’s openside colossus David Pocock to thrive at the breakdown because of the Boks’ struggles here.
Furthermore, the sides that have diluted the potency of the Reds’ halfback pair of Will Genia and Cooper (in Super Rugby) have done so off the back of momentum-halting tackle fights. The Springboks don’t have the mongrel or tactical intelligence to manage this, ensuring that the aforementioned duo will have space and time to plot their demise.
Conditions are likely to demand Genia and Cooper temper their usual enterprise in favour of a more pragmatic, territory-based approach, but they have consistently shown their aptitude to do this in Super Rugby.
Combine this with fact that the Springboks lack the men to pressure them at lineout time (which has been central to any success gained against them) as well as their history of having never won in Sydney, and having won just thrice in 17 attempts in Australia overall, and it is easy to predict a comfortable victory for the Wallabies.
VREDE’S CALL: Australia by 12
Australia - 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 James O’Connor, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Pat McCabe, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Ben McCalman, 7 David Pocock, 6 Rocky Elsom (c), 5 James Horwill, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Sekope Kepu.
Subs: 16 Saia Faingaa, 17 Pekahou Cowan, 18 Nathan Sharpe, 19 Matt Hodgson, 20 Scott Higginbotham, 21 Nick Phipps, 22 Anthony Faingaa.
South Africa: 15 Gio Aplon, 14 Bjorn Basson, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Ashley Johnson, 7 Danie Rossouw, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Alistair Hargreaves, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 John Smit (c), 1 Dean Greyling.
Subs: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 CJ van der Linde, 18 Ryan Kankowski, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Charl McLeod, 21 Adi Jacobs, 22 Pat Lambie.
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210 Comments
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21 Jul 2011, 18:48 pm
@rangerman(rangerman)-195: If you’re going to have a ref in there, it should be Bryce Lawrence.
21 Jul 2011, 20:31 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-199: Thuli Madonsela for prez !!!!!!!!!
She Is fantastic,classy and brave.
21 Jul 2011, 22:51 pm
@daydreamer(daydreamer)-201: not if you are a sharks fan.
22 Jul 2011, 04:55 am
Such a pity that we’re going into a game with such a pacey back 3 and the weather is going to be so non-conducive to running rugby. On the plus side if Ady and Chilli come on we could very well have 7 players of colour on the field for the Springboks at one time – almost half the team! Now that’s transformation!
22 Jul 2011, 05:04 am
@Tacitus(Deucalion)-4: If a bookmaker thinks a result is so absolutely 100% certain to occur, he won’t accept ANY money on it happening, not even at the longest of odds (say, 1 million to 1). A case in point is the upcoming All Blacks versus Fiji test: the NZ Tote Board literally won’t take any bets on a Fiji victory. There is, therefore, “no price” on a head-to-head bet on a Fiji win. It’s a legitimate wagering term.
22 Jul 2011, 05:11 am
looking forward to some repetitive crash ball and skop ‘n jaag ne
22 Jul 2011, 05:27 am
I think Dingo Deans is taking a leaf out of the P-Divvy book of mind baffling selection. Why on Earth has he got Mcelman in the team? Has did he watch any of the Super15? Or for that point even last week? Higinbotham is clearly the form backrow forward in Australia. Man of the match in the Super 15 final, made a try out of virtually nothing when he came on against Samoa. Then there is Samo as well, who was brilliant for the Reds, but he doesn’t even get on the bench? Also putting Macabe at inside centre and leaving O’Conner on the wing? Macabe will run hard and tackle, but that is it. O’Conner has the vision, decision making skills and kicking game, which will be totally wasted out on the wing. And finally persisting with Rocky Elsom as captain is probably the biggest screw up of the lot! He has some very good potential leaders to chose from in Horwill, Genia, Pocock and yet he goes for a mute dumbass instead!!!
Australia have the personnel to be a very good team, but they have a coach who’s lost his way and is now making them susceptible to teams that often occupy a spot out of the worlds top 10.
22 Jul 2011, 06:18 am
@TheTackler(TheTackler)-205:
They only bet six packs and Klippies up North…
22 Jul 2011, 08:55 am
The Springboks don’t have the mongrel or tactical intelligence to manage this
Are you jas?!?! We are the bullies of World Rugby, we will pummel any forward pack that fronts us.
Danie Rossouw will be the primary strike runner in a back row that otherwise doesn’t inspire confidence of a gainline assault,
What about Ashley Johnson?? He regularly broke the line and gained valuable meters against all the teams he played against. It is just stegmann that doesnt inspire gainline confidence but then again he has a other role in the team.
You guys are delusional. The Wobblies will still have nightmares of the bullying they received last week form the samoans and who better to follow that up than the original kings of bullying. the mighty bokke.
I think the Aussies are going to overcompensate at the breakdown and are going to go flying into rucks and go off their feet a few times, which will result in plenty of penalities for Morne to kick over.
Boks by 3.
22 Jul 2011, 09:29 am
Vrede, not sure this has been mentioned befpre but Boks won in Sydney in 1993 & 1971. A long time ago…yes but certainly not NEVER in our history
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