Auckland clash will reveal RWC favourite
1 Aug 2011
JON CARDINELLI writes that Saturday’s Test between New Zealand and Australia could serve as a dress rehearsal for the World Cup final.
The All Blacks are currently the No 1 side in the world, and will be favourites to win the World Cup on their home soil. Some will expect them to choke as they have in past tournaments, while others will view their excellent record in New Zealand as ominous.
Everybody is looking for patterns, signs and omens in the lead up to the 2011 tournament, and no doubt the predictions will be altered again following Saturday’s Test. This clash is pivotal in the context of the Tri-Nations, and important with regards to the World Cup.
The All Blacks have the best draw in the Tri-Nations, playing two games at home before travelling to South Africa. They will face a stronger Bok side than the rabble that toured Australasia, but won’t have to deal with the effects of altitude nor the hostile home support typical of highveld venues.
They must be the favourites to win all three of their first three games. They’ve already beaten the Boks in Wellington, and will be expected to beat Australia this week. They will also fancy their chances of beating the Boks in Port Elizabeth.
They will be expected to beat Australia at Eden Park, as they haven’t lost to the Wallabies in Auckland since 1986. They will have targeted this clash as the most important of their Tri-Nations fixtures, as the winner will obtain a massive psychological boost ahead of the World Cup. The semi-finals and final will be staged at this venue, and so it will be important for the All Blacks to maintain their sense of invincibility.
But then the Wallabies will also realise what’s at stake. They will believe they can beat the All Blacks given what happened on 9 July. The Reds beat the Crusaders to bring Australia Super Rugby success for the first time since 2004, and Wallabies coach Robbie Deans has already spoken about using that win as a springboard to greater things.
Knocking over the All Blacks at Eden Park would be a massive achievement in itself. It would end a 25-year losing record at the ground, and it would serve as a boost to their Tri-Nations chances.
They also still need to travel to South Africa, but if they beat the All Blacks in Auckland they will be favourites to beat them in the Tri-Nations finale in Brisbane. Suncorp Stadium is of course the venue where the Reds beat the Crusaders during the league stage of the Super Rugby competition, as well as in the final itself.
The past two weeks have witnessed one-sided matches, and have hardly deserved to be described as Tests. Not much would have been read into those games as any success against a second-rate Bok side doesn’t suggest that the Wallabies or All Blacks are where they need to be.
This Saturday will be a Test match that lives up to our expectations. There will be a number of intriguing smaller battles, with Dan Carter going up against Quade Cooper, and David Pocock testing his skills against Richie McCaw. It will also be interesting to see what happens on a collective level, and just who manages to play the big moments well.
Of course the coaches and players will deny that the game means something in the context of the World Cup. But the truth is that there’s more at stake this Saturday than the points on the Tri-Nations log. Less than three months from now, these two teams could be competing for rugby’s greatest prize on the very same ground.
The All Blacks are likely to face Argentina in the quarter-finals before meeting the Boks in the semis. If they negotiate the South Africans successfully, they will have booked their place in the final.
The Wallabies have a tougher road to the decider, and will need to beat the likes of Ireland in the quarters and one of France or England in the semis. But given the strength of the Sanzar nations in comparison with the other tier-one teams, the Wallabies will be favourites to win those matches.
While they have a lot of confidence and flair they are short on experience. This Saturday will show us how far they’ve come in their development, and whether they have the potential to challenge for the world title.
I suspect that the All Blacks will do enough to win this game, but if the Wallabies manage an upset it would do wonders for their World Cup chances. A Wallabies win on Saturday would also be good for the Boks, as they won’t feel confident about playing a probable World Cup semi-final at a venue where the hosts haven’t lost for a quarter of a century. A Wallabies win would confirm that the All Blacks are beatable at Eden Park.
133 Comments
Pages: « 1 2 [3] Show All
1 Aug 2011, 10:06 am
@Brads(Brads)-88:
would you bet your house on SA failing in the group stages?
would you bet your house on NZ winning?
there are very few things if any that i would be my house on.
1 Aug 2011, 10:07 am
@Cheetah 4 Eva(Cheetah 4 Eva)-99:
NZ as a society has gone way way past expecting the AB’s to win by just turning up.
1 Aug 2011, 10:09 am
@munkiboi(munkiboi)-101:
Correct, and that is my point.
But repeating mistakes that were proven wrong isn’t a good platform to work from.
1 Aug 2011, 10:10 am
Poops has fallen off the wagon.
1 Aug 2011, 10:11 am
@Brads(Brads)-96:
yes, and when they (the ‘perennial’ hehe) favourites burst into tears after getting beaten it just makes it all the more satisfying.
sad, but true.
1 Aug 2011, 10:13 am
@gaffie du toit is a legend – at griquas…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-105:
Point proven.
You really don’t care who wins if your team is not in the final, so long as it is not the AB’s
1 Aug 2011, 10:24 am
@Gunther is at camp Snordraad(gunther)-104:
and by wagon you mean chlorpromazine, haloperidol, clozapine, olanzapine, haloperidol, olanzapine, ziprasidone, haloperidol, flupenthixol and clopenthixol, right?
1 Aug 2011, 10:25 am
Consider this.
For close on 50 years NZ held a cup that most supporters were completely unaware of until Aus took it off us and then paraded it about as a totem of their achievement over the AB’s.
The cup is the ugliest and grossest trophy imaginable, but jerking our pride by flaunting it in the manner the Wallabies did turned a nothing cup into the 2nd most treasured trophie for NZ Rugby.
1 Aug 2011, 10:26 am
@Brads(Brads)-106:
does this make me a bad person?
although to tell you the truth i, like poppa, always root for any sh team over the nh, always (even in 2003).
1 Aug 2011, 10:27 am
Fern should be along with soon with his expat-bs.com
and wheres Jannie van der Biggles ?
threads like this don’t seem deeply fulfilling without the main cheerleaders going thru their normal routines.
1 Aug 2011, 10:32 am
Be wary Boks, I have this feeling that South Africa will not get out of Pool D. Losses to Wales & Samoa are on the Horizon.
1 Aug 2011, 10:32 am
@gaffie du toit is a legend – at griquas…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-107:
well, keo was making poops a worse person.
so clearly chemical intervention was required.
I’m just glad that he feels he has improved enough as a human being to join us again.
and that they’ve upped his meds.
anyway its only a matter of time before walks the aidsapartheid warpath again.
but we will be there to catch him if he falls.
1 Aug 2011, 10:33 am
@Black Panther(Black Panther)-110:
well this brad guy seems to have joined you and pops in a threesome.
1 Aug 2011, 10:35 am
@gaffie du toit is a legend – at griquas…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-109:
Bad person? Where did that come from?
Be honest, even in 2003 you wanted England to beat Aus, but you wanted them to evaporate after doing so.
1 Aug 2011, 10:35 am
@Gunther is at camp Snordraad(gunther)-112:
well now i just feel real good about myself, thank you sir.
1 Aug 2011, 10:39 am
@gaffie du toit is a legend – at griquas…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-113:
I have joined no one. And by the way, it is Brads.
1 Aug 2011, 11:03 am
@Brads(Brads)-114:
not true. i can tell you on my life i was rooting for oz. that drop sunk me as much as it did oz, honest.
@Brads(Brads)-116:
i do apologise twice over, sorry.
1 Aug 2011, 11:11 am
@gaffie du toit is a legend – at griquas…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-117:
Well you are better man than me.
I wanted the Poms to win and then disappear.
Apparently I was blessed!
1 Aug 2011, 11:12 am
@ray-27(ray-bulls_fan)-84: To be honest, the “most difficult road” for the Boks are purely because they are very average themselves. If NZ or Australia were in their pool, folks would say, they’ve got an rather easy ride till the semis.
1 Aug 2011, 11:16 am
Ignoreer die mense van anderkant die oseaan, praat in die taal dan sal hulle almal die skimp vang…
1 Aug 2011, 11:25 am
@Brads(Brads)-118: @gaffie du toit is a legend – at griquas…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-117: I was cheering for England in the final, I wanted for once NH to win it, plus Engand were awesome that year.
1 Aug 2011, 11:32 am
@Nils(Nils)-121:
Well Nils, it appears we were both blessed, because I agree with you entirely.
Great win, then the ffuckers disappeared – perfect!
1 Aug 2011, 11:37 am
Going to be a cracker this weekend. I wouldn’t say this is a dress hearsal for the RWC final as both teams were upset by their respective bogey teams last RWC and both teams play them again this RWC.
The Wallas will definitely meet England enroute to the final and need to be careful they don’t get dragged into a forward tussel. The ABs meet France in the pool games and need to be careful there as well. If ABs lose they have to go through alot of good teams to get to Final!!
The Boks chances this year are looking ver slim IMO. The lack of coaching is very evident. A decent coach would have got that Bok B side atleast playing some sort of rugby!!
Boks have no chance this RWC! Unless the old boys just coach themselves as England did last RWC!
1 Aug 2011, 11:53 am
@race of tan(race of tan)-123:
Very perceptive on several levels.
I agree, this will be a cracker this weekend. If the AB’s lose, it will because the Aus team threw the kitchen sink at attacking play.
1 Aug 2011, 11:55 am
@Nils(Nils)-121:
@Brads(Brads)-118:
the english were cheating nicely in the year’s build up to and in the final (as well most of the year before). most memorable was (with them in possesion) their driving through rucks on their feet and impeding defending players coming into or disengaging from the rucks well ahead of their advantage line where the ball was still with them and being played into phases after the said ruck/s. they would go through and past to impede well past a number of loosies up to the half back, f-back and or any midfielders at times.
it took a while before anyone cottoned on enough to do anything about it as well the referees.
it pissedd me off no end and for that reason together with genuinely wanting the sh to keep from the north i was rooting oz.
1 Aug 2011, 12:05 pm
@gaffie du toit is a legend – at griquas…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-125:
Stop being a dipstick.
You spend all your time looking for infringements the ref missed, how can you enjoy the game.
1 Aug 2011, 16:49 pm
@gaffie du toit is a legend – at griquas…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-125: I could have sworn it was Watson who kept Aussies in the game. On and on. English smashed powder-puff Aussie scum and – surprise, surprise! – got penalized many times themselves, while Gregan was doing what Ronaldo (the clown from Real, not Brazilian legend) does in the penalty box – earning his Oscar.
1 Aug 2011, 16:50 pm
Apologies, not “Aussie scum” but “Aussie scrum”, of course. 8)
2 Aug 2011, 04:41 am
@Great White Shark(Predawn)-97: The Kiwis are only just building up, nicely. They’re in 3rd gear and building revs. Two more gears to go. And the yarpies are disappearing in the rear-view mirror.
2 Aug 2011, 04:51 am
Quite hoping Oz do get to play England this RWC. Would be bl00dy nice to knock them out of the WC for a change. Call me a dreamer but I’m fairly confident the Oz pack will be giving as good as it gets this year.
2 Aug 2011, 06:55 am
@Fatflanker(Fatflanker)-130: Around the park the Aussie forwards are the equal of most teams and better than most. Their breakdown work is very good when they are on top of their game, and their ability to retain possession over long phases is also very good with a pretty mobile pack. Despite the better looking performance against the B Bok scrum however, I think they are still vulnerable against the best scrums and we may see some of that this weekend. I just hope that the ref doesn’t let them go into permanent collapse mode every time they don’t win the initial hit. It is a blight on the Aussie game, that whilst better this year than some previous years, is still maybe only a couple of bad scrums away from being ‘reinvented’. I would also like to see the AB fatties hitting up a few mauls to see whether the Aussies can respond adequately without giving up penalties. Looking forward to that game and the one against the (hopefully) ‘real’ Boks in the test in SA. The RWC maybe coming, but the best 3 teams in the world are already playing and those are the games you really want to see.
2 Aug 2011, 08:26 am
@aliboy(aliboy)-131: Agreed, I’m not reading too much into the B Boks’ scrum although I would have thought it would stand up better than it did given the players. This weekend will be a real acid test for the Wallaby forwards. If their pack can approach parity against the AB at scrumtime I’d expect to see their odds shorten considerably for the RWC no matter a close loss. The big question is of course can we expect to see substantially stronger NH scrummaging? I’d be amazed if the likes of England and France will be more than just a shade better than first-pick SA or NZ. At least Oz won’t be complacent.
3 Aug 2011, 04:55 am
@Fatflanker(Fatflanker)-132: The first choice AB scrum has pretty much held it’s own against all other teams recently so I feel OK using them as a bench mark for now. The thing is that some of the NH teams (and possibly Argentina) will be as good as the AB’s and that might give the Aussies some worries if the NH teams play a very tight controlled game. The good news for the Aussies though is that NH teams may not be able to stop themselves putting the ball on the boot and most of them don’t have enough quality out wide to constantly shut down the Aussie backs if they get too much possession in space.
Pages: « 1 2 [3] Show All
Have your say
You must be logged in to post a comment.