Boks: Tale of the tape
30 Sep 2011
Keo.co.za does a statistical preview of the Springboks’ clash with Samoa and inspects trends relevant to both sides courtesy of ruckingoodstats.com.
The Springboks’ numbers have been somewhat skewed by their demolition of the decidedly mediocre Fiji and Namibia. Trends and encouraging numbers should therefore be viewed with that perspective.
There are certainly some unexpected trends, like Morne Steyn, who has a reputation for being a relatively conservative flyhalf, third in the tournament for running the ball from set phases. Australia’s Quade Cooper leads in this regard. Steyn will slip down that list as the Springboks’ revert to their preferred pragmatic approach.
There are developments that should encourage – the Springboks have broken the most tackles inside the opposition’s 22 (12.3 per game) – and some that are a cause for concern – they are the third highest in conceding penalties while in possession of the ball.
The rankings are an average after the games played thus far.
Time, Possession and Territory
The Springboks have played the game at pace, evidenced in their ball-in-play and contestable time, which is the highest in the tournament. Samoa have exhibited a similar pattern, but Friday’s Test in North Habour is likely to feature more grind than glitter. Expect an early onslaught from the islanders, who lead the tournament in time in the opposition’s 22m in the first half. The Springboks spend the most time in the opposition’s 22m in the competition. However, the bulk of that time has come in the second half, suggesting they are relatively slow starters.
Points
The Springboks have the second highest number of tries and the most conversions, the latter indicating that Morne Steyn has not had the goal kicking struggles many others have.
Attack
The Springboks break the most tackles inside the opposition’s 22m at 12.3 per game. Samoa are fourth highest with 7.3. and their more structured style is reflected in that they average 9.7 tackle offloads per game, while the defending champions dish off an average of nine per match.
Defence
The Springboks have the best defensive record in the tournament having conceded just two tries in three Tests, but again this statistic needs to take into account the utter impotency of Fiji and Namibia.
However, despite their record suggesting a formidable defensive side, they are missing 1 in 4.6 tackle attempts. It has been as bad as 1 in 3 during the Tri-Nations. Their best performance came against Wales, where they missed 1 in 5. Samoa are better equipped than Fiji or Samoa to exploit their defensive failings.
Errors
The Springboks’ attacking cause has been undermined by fundamental handling errors and turnovers, averaging 21.3 per match (the fifth highest). Samoa are slightly ahead at 23.3, pointing to a game that will lack fluidity unless both sides remedy their shortcomings here.
Excellent discipline in defence has amplified the Springboks’ threat. There average penalty count of 7.3 is the second best in the tournament. However, their discipline on attack lacks that clinical edge – they are third highest in conceding penalties while in possession.
Notably, Samoa lead the tournament in conceding penalties between their 22m and the halfway line. Morne and Frans Steyn will be salivating.
The referee – Nigel Owens (Wales)
Owens has penalised often at scrum time. He is the fourth highest in this facet of play with 5.7 scrum infringements per game. Interestingly, at an average of 16.7, he awards less penalties than any referee in the tournament, including being the lowest for ruck infringements, which bodes well for a free-flowing contest.
By Ryan Vrede, in Auckland
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21 Comments
30 Sep 2011, 00:57 am
Some interesting points
Based on that I’d say the game plan would be to:
Absorb the early pressure . Play the game in samoas half let them give away penalties and have frans and morne drop kick at will in the first forty- take try scoring opportunities when we are in their 22 otherwise just sit tight and wait for the last 20 min to unleash the running rugga
30 Sep 2011, 00:59 am
Jaaaaa all you rugby experts that said Steyn is done, James will play, Steyn won’t even make the Bok squad, Steyn can’t run, Steyn can’t get his backline away, Steyn can’t score a try to save his life, Sten blah blah blah….
Now what? Steyn was lucky so far? Steyn did that against weak teams? Whatever!!! The Bok gameplan dictates how he plays. Said it all along. But nooooooo, everyone is mos clevererer.
30 Sep 2011, 00:59 am
@boktillzero(boktillzero)-1: solid plan, can’t see the Samon’s being able to counter it.
Boks don’t need to panic – soak up the pressure, let the Samoan’s tire and game won.
30 Sep 2011, 01:02 am
@TheAgent(TheAgent)-2: This is what AB fans think of Steyn: He is a match winner if the Boks get forward dominance. He is a weakness if the Boks only get parity or are on the back foot.
The problem for AB fans is that the Bok forwards are likely to get better than parity against the AB’s :-0
30 Sep 2011, 01:08 am
@corporal punishment(corporal punishment)-4: Most flyhalves have a weakness when their forwards struggle. Even Carter, not to mention Cooper.
There’s nothing between the Bok and AB forwards. Will come down to least mistakes, defense, goal kicking. These type of games are won through sheer pressure.
I still think NZ will take it.
30 Sep 2011, 01:12 am
@corporal punishment(corporal punishment)-3:
It’s going to be good game
I just wonder how the islanders will go into it .if they go for the big hits they’ll need to be very disciplined the last thing they need is to be playing with 14 men against a bok team that is willing to spread it wide.
If the go all conservative they might be bullied off the park by the bok pack.
30 Sep 2011, 01:16 am
@boktillzero(boktillzero)-6: The first 60 will be close. Then the bench will come into play and the sore and tired Samoan bodies.
Boks 37 Samoa 17
30 Sep 2011, 01:26 am
@TheAgent(TheAgent)-7:
Yeh the general view is that the first 60 will be close .
the boks need to make statement especially on defense . The game against wales was too close we can’t afford another heart attack
30 Sep 2011, 04:24 am
Let us hope that the *** ref isn’t seduced by those big muscular Samoans.
30 Sep 2011, 04:26 am
@Kobus Kitty(Kobus Kitty)-9:
g-ay is not a bad word. It is a way of life nigel and gareth choose.
30 Sep 2011, 05:54 am
Boks have conceded only one try in three tests!!!!
30 Sep 2011, 05:57 am
Nothing less than a 30 pt margin will do.
30 Sep 2011, 05:58 am
@DiqueMeister(DiqueMeister)-11: But in the 3N against real opposition they conceded 11 tries in 2 tests, remember?
30 Sep 2011, 06:09 am
I do remember.
Aren’t these stats for the RWC???
30 Sep 2011, 06:29 am
@TheTackler(TheTackler)-13:
yeh that bok c team that played in the 3N needs to step their game up and be more like the current A team that beat NZ in that same 3N
30 Sep 2011, 08:34 am
Awesome, these stats are much better than just another ‘informed opinion.’ Keep it up!
30 Sep 2011, 08:58 am
Obviously Samoa’s coaching staff will use these stats to change their game plan. Fortunately for us their coaching staff rarely gets it right.
My prediction for today: Samoa will do the opposite from what they told us the whole week. They’ll try their hand at a forward-orientated game. Yeah, that’s not their style, but they did it effectively against Australia a few months ago. Then they had to go and get overconfident and play their normal backline play against NZ.
SA will win, but I’m hoping they’ll improve on a facet of their game that’s been lacking: the lineout. Let’s hope Victor can get his old form back before the knock-out stage. Dominance at the lineout is vital for this bok team.
30 Sep 2011, 09:04 am
If I read Muir’s statement correctly, we’ll be playing a structured game this week. In the first 3 weeks the defensive gameplan was obvious. 6 and 7 plays the first line of defense. (See tackling stats for Burger and Brussow)
Will the structured game see different roles for Burger and Brussow? The aforementioned plan limited Burger and Brussow. Brussow can’t steal the ball if he’s the tackler most of the time, and Burger was less influential on attack since he had to stay back for defense.
Ah. Wish the game will just start! So many questions!
30 Sep 2011, 09:07 am
Ryan,
So the Bokke are the only team playing against weak opposition that scews our stats.
I seem to remember AB’s – Japan 80 plus and a few others, why is Wales then not on top of list.
Are’nt we supposed to be in the toughest pool ?
Nee jong man , gee krediet waar dit nodig is.
30 Sep 2011, 09:10 am
The Keo team always will try and find something negative. Imagine a staff meeting:
Let’s write something good about Divvy , No way you are fired
Lets write something bad about Divvy , Yes you will get an xtra bonus
30 Sep 2011, 09:23 am
@capebull(capebull)-20: LOL! Yeah. I can’t believe how thick these guys’ skins are. They keep on making statements which they know will set them up for ridicule.
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