Goodbye to the minnows; hello to the madness
3 Oct 2011
MARK KEOHANE, in Business Day Newspaper, writes if drama’s your game, don’t go anywhere in the next three weekends.
After 48 of the most dramatic hours ever experienced at a Rugby World Cup, we finally have a competition that demands that you don’t go anywhere for the next three weekends. Goodbye to the minnows and hello to the madness of knockout rugby.
Typically, France gave us an appetiser of the madness of which they are capable. Their players simply did not pitch for a pool match they could afford to lose (and still qualify for the last eight) in protest over their fractious relationship with coach Marc Lievremont. They lost to Tonga. Lievremont said he was ashamed of the performance and admitted the players refused to engage in a bonding session.
New Zealand rugby royalty Dan Carter tore his groin muscle in a kicking drill on Saturday afternoon and the mood among locals was sombre and more applicable to when a nation mourns a popular head of state. If you happen to have been on a space shuttle, Carter, the game’s most complete flyhalf and New Zealand’s master conductor, is out of the World Cup. It is New Zealand’s worst rugby nightmare and there may now not even be an occasion for these men in black to choke.
With Carter at No10 they led the World Cup pack. Without him the All Blacks are just one of the championship-chasing pack. They would get past the Pumas even if Carter’s grandmother was at flyhalf, but getting beyond the semifinals will need a flyhalf more capable than his understudy, Colin Slade.
The All Blacks, with Carter gone and Richie McCaw on one leg, are officially in another World Cup crisis. At least they can take comfort that next year they will be unbeatable again and Carter won’t get one injury.
Some things are meant to be. The All Blacks have a World Cup curse and England a World Cup Fairy Godmother. New Zealand just can’t seem to keep it together or get it together.
England can do as they please, play as they please and pick as many plodders as they please. They’ve tossed a few dwarfs around in Dunedin, gone on the piss, admitted to switching match balls to give their struggling goal-kicking ace Jonny Wilkinson an advantage, and coach Martin Johnson acknowledged reprimanding three players who lured a hotel worker to their rooms and made suggestive comments about wanting oral sex. The only thing the England players and coaching staff have not admitted to is playing turgid rugby.
The International Rugby Board (IRB) sanction has been a “don’t do it again … now get on and win this bloody thing for us old farts in the Northern Hemisphere” before turning its full attention to the hideous crime of a Samoan player wearing a gum guard that contravened official tournament sponsorship rules.
The offence was deemed so serious that the team was fined NZ$10000, and worse was to follow for the Samoans after controversial centre Eliota Fuimaono Sapolu called Welsh referee Nigel Owens a prick, a racist and an elitist who favoured the Springboks in Samoa’s 13-5 defeat.
Sapolu tweeted that he would love to meet IRB members on the street and said the game’s administration was protecting the big five and the wealthy. He also confirmed his retirement from international rugby, arguing there was no point to it if you were a tier-two nation.
The IRB have confirmed a hearing. Toss around a dwarf and illegally switch match balls during play, but just don’t call the IRB an elite organisation.
When Samoa and Fiji played at Eden Park a fortnight ago they smashed each other for 80 minutes, then gathered in prayer as a band of Pacific Island brothers. On Friday night after the most brutal of matches against the Boks there was nothing more than a grudging Samoan handshake.
The Samoan captain spoke of referee bias and Bok captain Victor Matfield expressed disgust at the Samoan off-the- ball thuggery.
Frans Steyn, colossal all tournament, legally smashed into Samoans all night but his shoulder proved more brittle than brutal and he’s out of the World Cup.
Scotland, needing to beat England by eight points, led 12-3 in the second half before losing 16-12 to Chris Ashton’s 78th- minute match-winning try.
Wilkinson missed his first three penalty attempts and missed a left-footed drop goal from right in front. Madness.
And for 55 minutes Georgia led Argentina 7-5. Not quite madness, but a contender.
The Canadians even led the All Blacks 3-0 for three minutes. Definite madness.
What more, asked everyone? Surely an Italian win against Ireland to seal the most dramatic conclusion to the 40- match round robin stage.
Come on Italy, screamed every South African. Say what they may publicly, the Boks would much have preferred the Irish as quarterfinal opponents.
It was not to be. Instead they have the Tri-Nations champions Australia to beat to make it to Eden Park for the first time in this tournament.
If you are planning on going anywhere on Sunday, pick a church to offer thanks or for a World Cup mourning.
I’d suggest it is safer just not going anywhere. The 2011 Rugby World Cup is officially open.
397 Comments
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3 Oct 2011, 15:14 pm
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game)-49:
Was at an Old Bok function a while ago where Joggie himself explained in detail how that tackle went down. Wonderful to see.
3 Oct 2011, 15:18 pm
@Tacitus(Deucalion)-12: The Boks have only played one Northern Hemisphere team this world cup and not a very good one. Had the referee gone to the TMO you would have lost, but should you play Wales or a better team from the Northern Hemisphere in the final, you have a 100% guarantee of winning. Then there are the Aussies, who the Boks just can’t seem to beat much these days 1-5 over the last 6 meetings and you have a 60% chance of winning. Oh and also the All Blacks, the number 1 ranked team in the world at home, who haven’t lost at Eden Park in the professional era and its 50-50?!?!!? I’m guessing you’re working for Keo’s dodgy bookmakers?
3 Oct 2011, 15:20 pm
@Tacitus(Deucalion)-50: Ndiyavumela nawe mfodini, uSmit linqatha for sure. Kodwa uDan Carter wenzeni sim ndinga kangaka kwek. Hayike uHabana kudala wayeka ukudlala, akana-side step.
3 Oct 2011, 15:24 pm
@Tacitus(Deucalion)-41:
Its still quicker than probably the best loose forward in competition Ferris/O’Brien/Heaslip of ireland.
Spies for all his speed,his influence on a game is subliminal especially in the collisions where the game vs OZ and Knockouts in general are going to be won(held at an absolute premium).
Alberts adds more in that facet and thus should start,releasing Spies on tiring defense to use that “speed” of his.
3 Oct 2011, 15:26 pm
@mpundulu(mpundulu)-53:
Dougie Howlett had no step but still is the premier try scorer in NZ history.
Habana is getting back to form.
3 Oct 2011, 15:29 pm
@HongKongSlong(HongKongSlong)-52: Thanks for the input, you may be in a different time zone in HK but this is a SA web site….. where its Bok time !
Surprised with the one eyed attitude sunshine ??
3 Oct 2011, 15:30 pm
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game)-49: Wow!
3 Oct 2011, 15:32 pm
@HongKongSlong(HongKongSlong)-52:
OK. You’ve caused some reflection on my part with your insightful post. So let’s see how unreasonable my predictions are:
I’m saying the no.2 ranked team in the World has a 60% chance to beat the no.3 ranked team at a neutral venue, this after the no.3 ranked team recently lost to the no.6 ranked team, also on a neutral venue.
Hmmm, not unreasonable at all, actually. 60-40, I think is spot on. Objection overruled.
Next I’m saying the no.2 ranked team in the world has a 50% chance of beating the no.1 ranked team in the world – right after the no.1 ranked team has lost their key playmaker and widely acknowledged best player in the world, without whom they are half the team they usually are. And bearing in mind that the last time the two teams met the no.2 ranked team were the victors.
Again, not unreasonable at all. Objection overruled, based on its lack of merit.
Lastly, I’m saying that after overcoming the no.3 and no.1 teams in the world respectively, that the no.2 ranked team will have a 100% chance of beating either the no.4,5,6 or 8 ranked team in the world at a neutral venue – although it is a venue at which the no.2 ranked team plays far more often – both during the S15 and during the Tri Nations – than the no’s 4-8 ranked Northern Hemishpere teams do.
So, while 100% may be a bit over the top – after all, we could always lose 7 players as we run out of the tunnel – nothing’s impossible – I think the spirit of the prediction is that barring a miracle, the no.2 ranked team should take it in such a hypothetical final. So let’s make them 95%-5% favourites then.
Again, objection overruled.
So that’s 3 objections lodged, 3 overruled, all based on lack of merit.
Glad we settled that one.
3 Oct 2011, 15:32 pm
@mpundulu(mpundulu)-47:
Ninyile sbali! BLIND!!
Uyafisa nje kuphela.uNick Evans ngeke bamubuyise. Banamakhanda aqinile iCartel ne NZRU.Ngeke.
uRead ulimele sbali,anginendaba ukuthi nithini.Akagijimi kahle,uWoodcock uyabheda-ikhehla manje.
Kubhemile!!! Carter loss is MASSIVE.Senisalelwe uSmith kuphela as creative force.Aninamuntu okhahlelayo okwangempela.Weepu..first choice kicker…waaaa!!!! NIYAFISA
3 Oct 2011, 15:35 pm
@HongKongSlong(HongKongSlong)-57: Dropped as if he was shot…. Look carefully and you will see the ball wasn’t even dislodged… I reckon temporary rigor mortis.
3 Oct 2011, 15:39 pm
NZ with Slade are incapable of winning a closely won trench warfare. They will be hoping they can just blow everybody out of the water.
Seems unlikely.
3 Oct 2011, 15:44 pm
@bananas(bananas)-56: Not at all, I love it! Much better debate and opinions on here then anywhere else. Just to let you know Tacitus odds are 3.33 for the Boks to win the world cup, Marshall world of sport 6.25 get your butts down to the bookies now and put a sizeable bet on them, because their price is pure lunacy!
3 Oct 2011, 15:46 pm
SA are the underdogs, nobody thinks we have a chance. We have been written off completely. Lets go out there and stir a few pots!!!
Go Bokke!!!
Odds To Reach the Final
New Zealand
0.33
England
1.8
Ireland
2.5
France
3.5
Wales
3.5
Australia
4
South Africa
4
Argentina
100
3 Oct 2011, 15:49 pm
NZ are basically in the final already, what the issue?
I mean they have a nice practise hit out against the Argies, with or without Carters Granny they can just organise their combinations!
I love this kind of talk. Don’t under-estimate the Argies. They definately have a better goal-kicker than NZ.
3 Oct 2011, 15:52 pm
@HongKongSlong(HongKongSlong)-62:
Yes according to me, our chances are 0.6 x 0.5 x 0.95 = 28.5%
That equals 1 to 3.5.
I would say the All Blacks chances are 1.0 x 0.5 x 1.0 = 50%.
That equals 1 to 2.
Therefore, the All Blacks still have better odds than SA.
But it all comes down to the semfinal.
3 Oct 2011, 15:54 pm
@Tacitus(Deucalion)-58: Hahaha!!! I think you’ve won over the Judge, the jury and everyone else, except for the book makers.
I actually posted earlier today stating that I thought the Boks were now in the driving seat, because of the Carter effect, but I thought Ireland may actually be their biggest threat, so I actually agree with you in a way, you just made it sound so easy!
3 Oct 2011, 15:55 pm
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game)-49 and @Tacitus(Deucalion)-51: WOW that is beautiful! The Boks need to hand out some of those in the Quarters and Semis!
3 Oct 2011, 15:55 pm
@Ratel Brussow(Morne Steyn is under-rated)-64: “definitely” a bit harsh word. Neither Felipe nor Rodriguez cannot kick for shiite either sofar.
Rodriguez – Penalty goal success rate: 27%, Conversion success rate: 83%.
Contepomi – Penalty goal success rate: 45%, Conversion success rate: 67%
Slade – Penalty goal success rate: 50%, Conversion success rate: 64%.
I do not see that much difference between all three.
3 Oct 2011, 15:57 pm
The winner of the Ireland Wales game will be in the final.
3 Oct 2011, 15:58 pm
If nz somehow don’t manage to win this time I alreadyu have a song for them and will post the lyrics and link here.
Such a deep meaningfull song with a bit of irony:-)
3 Oct 2011, 16:00 pm
@Nils(Nils)-68: Interesting stats and your views on them. Are they from the RWC site? What are there over-all kicking stats?
3 Oct 2011, 16:00 pm
@Ratel Brussow(Morne Steyn is under-rated)-64: “NZ are basically in the final already, what the issue?”
Plus, I have got a slightly different impression while reading comments on keo. The vibe was that QF is all that really matters and after then cup is basically in the bag after DC is gone.
Which is great, keep on thinking like that.
3 Oct 2011, 16:03 pm
@Ratel Brussow(Morne Steyn is under-rated)-71: These are official IRB stats from their website.
But even without them while Slade was struggling with his kicking, you could not miss that Argies themselves are woeful kickers sofar – especially vs England and Scotland – without that great try they were doomed as kickers just failed.
3 Oct 2011, 16:04 pm
@Nils(Nils)-68: Sure Slade is just as good as Contepomi. Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Contepomi is a PROVEN test goalkicker with over 500 test points. Hey, Slade looks better than Jonny in the RWC stats too. I know who I’d rather have kicking from the corner to win the WC.
Obviously you’d pick Slade, making you a complete idiot.
3 Oct 2011, 16:04 pm
@mshiniwami(mshiniwami)-54: Spies had his best half in TEST rugby against the Aussies in Durban this year. if the Boks dominate the colisions and a breakdown, we can unleash Spies early, if he is floundering then we put alberts on to moer the wallabies
3 Oct 2011, 16:04 pm
@Nils(Nils)-73: In horrendous rain and wind?
3 Oct 2011, 16:06 pm
@mshiniwami(mshiniwami)-59: hehehe Mtshele s’bali!
3 Oct 2011, 16:09 pm
@Nils(Nils)-73: Looking at the stats on their website, it says Con has 2 conversions. How do you get 45% form 2? Impossible. Please show me the link, I’m battling.
@Nils(Nils)-72: Well at least we are in a QF, NZ are clearly in some kind of friendly practice match.
3 Oct 2011, 16:10 pm
@Nils(Nils)-72: Well done on the superbru. Things may start to go a little nuts now though!
3 Oct 2011, 16:12 pm
@Ratel Brussow(Morne Steyn is under-rated)-74: contempomi has been putrid @ kicking…at one point in the match against georgia they said his stat was 5 from 23 or something
3 Oct 2011, 16:16 pm
Plod, Alberts and Lambie in a 100m Sprint….. That would be an interesting race…
3 Oct 2011, 16:17 pm
@Ratel Brussow(Morne Steyn is under-rated)-74: Nice one. Completely twisting the meaning of words just to suit your agenda and swear as you okes usually do.
Did it horrendously rained vs England? My suggestion is simple – buy yourself a decent TV, if you can afford.
And my bad, I thought that points are what counts. His STATS HERE aren’t worse than Felipe’s, nevermind the other one. That’s all I said.
3 Oct 2011, 16:17 pm
@Ratel Brussow(Morne Steyn is under-rated)-63: the convicts have been handed the favourite tag and the Boks are blowing smoke up their noughts … Keo and his underlings will spend the week building the convicts up … before Keo puts his curse on them.
That’s how it will play out this week.
3 Oct 2011, 16:17 pm
@Nils(Nils)-68: Other way round 67% conversions, 45% penalties.
@Nils(Nils)-73: Got it now.
@Transformation(Transformation)-80: So has Jonny’s. I’d still take him over Slade in a kick-out.
3 Oct 2011, 16:21 pm
@Ratel Brussow(Morne Steyn is under-rated)-78: Well – buy yourself a decent monitor, too. It is 67 percent.
@HongKongSlong(HongKongSlong)-79: Thanks a lot. You, too, do very well. I never managed to win a single round though. Hehehe. There is still time to screw everything up for me because I am going to pick Wales and France, if nothing happens. 8)
@Transformation(Transformation)-80: Exactly. Ok, he has injured ribs – my hat off to him for playing and bravely tackling but he cannot kick for shiit sofar.
3 Oct 2011, 16:21 pm
@Getafix(phil72)-81:
I back Alberts to win that one. Second place will be tight.
3 Oct 2011, 16:21 pm
@Ratel Brussow(Morne Steyn is under-rated)-84: Ok, then forget about the monitor. It is ok.
3 Oct 2011, 16:22 pm
Who does Slade play for in S15. Can’t recall his name being mentioned much.
Fact is, when I hear Colin Slade I just think of some Natal Sharks lock of a few years back.
Can’t even put a face to Colin Slade’s name, truth be told. Has he been plucked from obscurity?
3 Oct 2011, 16:25 pm
@Nils(Nils)-82: Sorry Scotland.
Overall stats RWC 2011
Slade 15/24
Con 7/15
Jonny 9/20
Yet I’d rate them the complete opposite. The difference is Slade is probably kicking the best he ever has!!!!!!
3 Oct 2011, 16:25 pm
@Ratel Brussow(Morne Steyn is under-rated)-84: No argument from me about who may be preferrable kicker – Jonny is more experienced even wobbly because we know how good he can be when on song. We know nothing like that about Slade, so there is a trouble.
As for friendly kicking practice – Argentina is upgraded Samoa. Nothing remotely “friendly” and better team overall. Gonna be tough.
3 Oct 2011, 16:30 pm
@Tacitus(Deucalion)-88: used to be backup at the Crusaders before being moved to the Highlanders this year when Israel Dagg switch from Otago to Chch. he didn’t get much gametime this year cos he broke his cheekbone in a S15 warm up match and made a cameo in one or two games and he got injured weer.
he is @ the world cup with as much game time as brussow has had
3 Oct 2011, 16:31 pm
@Nils(Nils)-90: Start preying for good weather!!
I think the majority of NZers are vastly under-rating the Argies. I wonder if Henry will rest McCaw? If he does, will show the attitude.
3 Oct 2011, 16:31 pm
@Ratel Brussow(Morne Steyn is under-rated)-89: ok, it was 5 from 13
3 Oct 2011, 16:33 pm
Is Colin Slade the worst starting 10 still left in the tournament?
I’d say he is.
From best to worst, it will have an impact.
3 Oct 2011, 16:38 pm
Can we all stop crowing until we get past Australia.
3 Oct 2011, 16:40 pm
@Ratel Brussow(Morne Steyn is under-rated)-92: let me be clear. I am not underrating the Argies in any way. I said it will be a tough game. They are strong team.
But I would be lying if I would not be confident about the result. ABs will beat them. Rain or shine, whatever.
3 Oct 2011, 16:41 pm
@Ratel Brussow(Morne Steyn is under-rated)-94: You may be nearly right… I reckon its
1. Priestland
2. O Gara
3. Steyn
4. Cooper
5. Jonny
6. The Argie
7. Slade
8. Parra
3 Oct 2011, 16:42 pm
Transie
Jeepers. Didn’t realise they were THAT far up the creek without a paddle.
3 Oct 2011, 16:45 pm
Ratel
Was that list in any particular order?
Hope not cause I can’t believe you would put MR No BMT O Gara above Morne Steyn.
3 Oct 2011, 16:48 pm
@Tacitus(Deucalion)-99: O’Gara sofar has way better stats than Steyn. Kicking percentage stats does not include BMT mentioning, so I will not comment on that too much apart than Morne himself does not ooze too much confidence.
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