Frogs are favourites in Auckland ruckus
14 Oct 2011
JON CARDINELLI says that France’s ability to pressure the Welsh at ruck time and convert the inevitable goal-kicking opportunities will be the difference in Saturday’s semi-final.
According to ruckingoodstats.com, both Wales and France have treasured possession throughout their respective campaigns. Wales in particular have favoured a ball-in-hand, build-through-the-phases approach rather than a more tactical drive for territory.
Wales have averaged 100 rucks/mauls per game at this tournament, and are the best in terms of taking the ball through multiple phases. Statistically, they are the fourth best side in terms of breaking tackles inside the opposition’s 22, averaging 7.4 of these per match. No doubt Warren Gatland will instruct his charges to stick to a formula that has brought the Dragons great success thus far.
France have looked susceptible at the lineout, and are the worst team as far as handling infringements and penalties at this set-piece are concerned. Again, Wales will look to target the Tricolores in this area, but they will need to work hard to edge the French at the scrums and breakdowns.
Wales’ record at the scrum has been poor, as they rank second highest of all teams at this tournament that infringe on their own ball. They are also ranked the third highest in terms of resets. Given referee Alain Rolland’s strict reputation at scrum-time, the Welsh will need to produce an uncharacteristically disciplined showing this Saturday if they want to avoid conceding possession and points.
Nowadays, scrums and lineouts are not nearly as influential to the outcome as the breakdowns and collisions. Rolland can also be particularly unforgiving in this area, and it will please France to know that he has to date awarded the most ruck penalties of any official at this World Cup.
While Wales have done well to control possession, they have been guilty of conceding 40% of their penalties on attack, the most of any team at this tournament. By comparison, France are more disciplined on attack, and they boast an incredible overall record at the ruck. Of all the teams at the 2011 World Cup, they have conceded the fewest ruck penalties and the fewest overall penalties in their own half.
This suggests that Wales will struggle to wear the French down in a game of attrition, and they may need to vary their game a lot more if they hope to progress to the final. They have some good goal-kicking options in Leigh Halfpenny and Stephen Jones (who will be on the bench), but their starting flyhalf and likely goal-kicker James Hook only has a record of 6/9 (67%) at this particular tournament.
Again, the French are more accurate in this department. While Dimitri Yachvili (15/21 – 71%) won’t kick for goal this Saturday, Morgan Parra (9/11 – 82%) has proved that he has the temperament and the skill to convert the majority of France’s goal-kicking opportunities.
Parra could be the difference in a closely contested semi-final. The tale of the tape suggests that both teams are not averse to running the ball from their own 22, but Wales will battle to break the French down or force them into errors in the Tricolores’ territory.
France should look to control possession and pressure Wales at the scrums and rucks, and if Rolland awards penalties within goal-kicking range, the French, through Parra, will translate that pressure into points and ultimately a semi-final win.
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26 Comments
14 Oct 2011, 07:35 am
i also believe French will win this game
14 Oct 2011, 07:44 am
undisputed Most dangerouss team in the worldd..when they feel likee it!!
France byy 20
14 Oct 2011, 07:46 am
No ways – the Welsh are in top form
Wales by 5
14 Oct 2011, 07:48 am
Hehehe sounds just like last week when the Irish were going to roll the Welsh easily! I wonder if people will give Wales any credit next week when they lift the cup…?
14 Oct 2011, 07:49 am
the frogss aree the best at attckingg the opportnentt lineout – somethingg not mention in this article.
14 Oct 2011, 07:54 am
am betting on frogs too.
sadly for the welsh the universe rights itself 9 times from 10.
they’ve had their 1 in 10….now its time for the 9.
14 Oct 2011, 09:11 am
France will fold, Wales by 18. This is their year, they might come up short in the final though.
France does not have the mental capacity to handle the situation while Wales have shown great patience and will run away with it in the last 20, like Eng could have done barring ridiculous handling errors.
30-12 to Wales.
14 Oct 2011, 09:21 am
I don’t know about Stephen Jones at 10, now that Priesland is out. He plays boring rugby. I have a feeling the Frenchies will take this one.
14 Oct 2011, 09:29 am
@rossoneri(rossoneri)-8: unless I missed something since, wasn’t there a thread on here yesterday entitled “Hook to pivot for Wales”?
14 Oct 2011, 09:31 am
@wooden spoon(wooden spoon)-9: yeah, saw it now. Jones on the bench.
14 Oct 2011, 09:33 am
Sounds like the welsh need Bryce Lawrence at breakdown time. If those stats about Rolland at the breakdown are correct maybe France have the edge. On form its the Welsh but this world cup the refs must be considered. Is this a world cup for players or the refs, the question must be asked!
14 Oct 2011, 09:35 am
Garcon! Bring le fromage, sil vous plait… Zees minkey feels le surrender coming on…
14 Oct 2011, 10:57 am
This Wales side are a fitter and better prepared team than we have seen for years. I do not believe the stats accumulated through the pool stages mean too much. They certainly looked disciplined against Ireland when it really counted. France on the other hand have had all sorts of off the park problems and in reality the only decent rugby they played was the 1st 60/70 minutes against England where they were left hanging on for dear life at the end. Wales will do France.
14 Oct 2011, 11:04 am
Cardinelli, you might want to remember that the Welsh scrum was far better since Jenkins returned. The last two games they were very solid.
If the French think they’re going to bulldoze this scrum they got le’nother theeng comeeng.
14 Oct 2011, 11:10 am
@TheTackler(TheTackler)-12:
Uuuuuurrrggghh
14 Oct 2011, 11:32 am
Wales by 7. That rush defence of theirs is impressive.
14 Oct 2011, 12:47 pm
Looks like bias against South Africa runs in the Lawrence family:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=4302
14 Oct 2011, 12:47 pm
.Looks like bias against South Africa runs in the Lawrence family:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=4302
14 Oct 2011, 15:40 pm
Wales by plenty unfortunately. The Frogs have had their blinder and it’s going to be business as usual with a plunge back to mediocrity. Pity, would love to see them go all the way (to RWC glory, perverts).
14 Oct 2011, 15:56 pm
Wales to win by 7 or more…France suck and lucky to still be in WC same for other semi where the woblies are just as lucky.
14 Oct 2011, 18:29 pm
Allthough anythingcan happen, I believe the other semi will the close one. Wales to take this one comfertably!
14 Oct 2011, 18:29 pm
Allthough anything can happen, I believe the other semi will the close one. Wales to take this one comfertably!!
14 Oct 2011, 22:28 pm
So, what does Jon Careinelliwassit know about rugby?
15 Oct 2011, 00:50 am
No such thing as French form – if they come to play Wales will go down; if the Red Dragons get a head of steam and a good lead it’s unlikely Tricolores will recover – but you never know with them and if they are firing on all cylinders it’s game over for the Welsh (who have not yet had their bad game) …
15 Oct 2011, 06:35 am
@rossoneri(rossoneri)-8:
I agree, more in the mould of Steyn at flyhalf. Not a creative at all. If I was Idi Amin for a day, I would ban a flyhalf like Morne Steyn in rugby. LOL
15 Oct 2011, 09:07 am
The French only beat a “putrid” England according to Jake White.
They hardly needed to raise a sweat.
So their one great game this WC has yet to be played.
But I still think Wales will win.
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