Stage set for Eden Park epic
14 Oct 2011
RYAN VREDE with the assistance of ruckingoodstats.com analyses the strengths and weaknesses of New Zealand and Australia ahead of their World Cup semi-final clash.
Australia undoubtedly come into the match as underdogs, having lost eight of their last 10 Tests against the Blacks, and having not won at this venue in 10 attempts, dating back to 6 September 1986.
They have furiously attempted to deflect the pressure onto the Blacks, claiming that the match is theirs to lose. That is a fallacy. With the hosts shorn of their fulcrum Dan Carter and with the talismanic Richie McCaw’s influence compromised by an injury, the youthful Wallabies will privately be aware that the Blacks are vulnerable in a way they haven’t been in some time.
Graham Henry’s charges, piloted by young Aaron Cruden, carry the weight of expectation that needs to be experienced to be fully comprehended. There is the distinct sense of trepidation among the Kiwis, evident in their media coverage and, more pertinently, in the discussions in their coffee shops and pubs.
A nation is holding its breath. The result will determine which of the anti-depressant or beer markets see a dramatic spike in sales.
Time, possession and territory
New Zealand have bossed possession in the first half in their games at the tournament and dominated territory in both halves. Only South Africa had been better in this regard. Expect them to continue this trend against the Wallabies, who defended desperately and heroically for the bulk of the contest against the Springboks last week.
Both sides rank highly for ball-in-play time, and both have thrived when allowed to play ‘fast’. Ireland built their pool-phase victory on stifling Australia’s ability to do this, while the Blacks haven’t really been tested in this regard. In 2011 New Zealand has lost matches to Australia (Brisbane) and South Africa (Port Elizabeth) when not allowed to play as quickly as they would have liked.
Points
The Blacks and Wallabies are ranked first and second respectively in terms of the average number of tries they’ve scored at the showpiece.
The Wallabies have achieved their try-scoring success playing through an average of 2.9 phases per match and 67 rucks per game (their 2011 average is 84), with New Zealand at 3.1 and 88.
Both have been potent in their opponents’ 22m, the Blacks averaging nine linebreaks in that zone, one more than the visitors. Richie’s Rockets are, however, better equipped to inflict damage from further out, averaging 10 more broken tackles a game between halfway and the opposition’s 22m.
However, in a game that is certain to be tight, the more interestingly study is the accuracy of the goalkickers. Piri Weepu has been an asset, kicking 11/12. Beyond him there is good cover, with Cruden kicking at 79 % (84/106 ) in 2011, and Stephen Donald at 73% (64/88). Wallabies kicker James O’Connor has banked 76% (16 from 21) of his attempts, the most notable of those the penalty that eliminated South Africa in Wellington last week. Cooper is at 50% (4/8) Berrick Barnes 80% (4/5) and Kurtley Beale 0/1.
Defence
The Blacks and Wallabies have missed an average of 11 tackles per World Cup Test, the former missing one tackle in every 7.1 attempts, while the latter is at one in 9.3.
Errors
To underline just how evenly matched these sides are, they have both been excellent at retaining the ball through phases, with both having the among the best records in terms of lost possessions/turnovers per game. With the breakdown set to be a key facet of play, it is interesting to note that neither side has been particularly vulnerable here, the Blacks averaging 1.8 and Wallabies 2.4 turnovers per match.
Given the threat both pose from turnover ball, a single pilfer from the likes of McCaw or David Pocock could be decisive to the outcome. Australia have had better discipline at ruck time, conceding four penalties on average, but how both teams fare here will lean largely on referee Craig Joubert’s management of the breakdown. We’ll discuss the South African shortly.
Set pieces
Testament to their preference to keep the ball alive, neither side sets many lineouts. Indeed they rank among the lowest teams in this regard. At scrum time, the Blacks getting penalised more, on average, on the opposition’s feed.
The ref
Joubert has been excellent to date, displaying none of the pedantic traits of some of his colleagues on the elite panel, and also certainly not of Bryce Lawrence’s laissez faire approach, particularly to managing the breakdown. Statistics reveal that is unlikely to be stricter in one facet of play over another, although he does rank fourth for ruck penalties.
By Ryan Vrede, in Auckland.
Follow Ryan’s World Cup coverage on twitter
Follow ruckingoodstats on twitter
209 Comments
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14 Oct 2011, 09:02 am
Pretty fair assessment really.
It could have done without the choker jibe, but we have broad shoulders.
14 Oct 2011, 09:02 am
@Helen(Helen)-44:
StMichel in 2007… Kitchener in 2011… he’ll be back as EltonJohn in 2015…
14 Oct 2011, 09:07 am
another interesting stat.
The French have played in the final every 3rd world cup since inception.
They are due another now.
14 Oct 2011, 09:09 am
@Helen(Helen)-53:
Or they have failed at every attempt and are due another one
14 Oct 2011, 09:11 am
I was watching Boots and All last night and nearly fell of the couch when Pdv said the leaders going forward are Schalk (no surprizes there), and SPIES!!! Spies! Seriously!
14 Oct 2011, 09:14 am
One thing we can see between the two teams is that the Ab bench is far more experienced and better than the Aussies – can see this game being won in the last 20 mins
14 Oct 2011, 09:17 am
This rubbish about historical stats is exactly that, rubbish.
If NZ don’t win the RWC from here, every stat, other than the choker tag will be rewritten.
14 Oct 2011, 09:20 am
@stew(stew)-56:
its simple really.
ab’s should take pocock out of the game dirty, like vickerman did brussow.
and for the walla’s they know mccaw is iffy so just work at his foot.
14 Oct 2011, 09:24 am
@stew(stew)-56:
It will depend on how the early exchanges go.
If Aus get first avantage on the board, then it might well take 60 minutes to climb over them, if at all.
But if NZ start early, it wil be one way traffic.
Early advantage means at least 7 points.
14 Oct 2011, 09:26 am
The kiwis have not been tested yet in this world cup.
If the Aussies score a quick few points, I doubt whether the Blacks can play catch-up and their confidence will be rattled.
Pocock, Samo and Elsom will get the better of the kiwis. They will be quicker to breakdown and slip fewer tackles.
Halfbacks will also belong to the Aussies. Cruden will be targeted and if he stands up to the challenge early in the game, he’ll be ok. If not, he too will have a serious bout of self doubt and revert to a more conservative inside pass game – where the wallabie loosies will prevail.
Backline play has to belong to Aussies. Kiwis only really have Nonu in his best form. Wallabies are a better defensive outfit and will probably even imporve on last week’s performance
The only part of game where the kiwis will dominate is scrum, discipline and goal kicking. Depending on how important these facets are in the game, the result will be decided accordingly
14 Oct 2011, 09:27 am
@once more just take a break on the beach, dear springboks, once more…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-58:
Sad thing is, I actually think you would like that to happen.
14 Oct 2011, 09:28 am
@grant10(grant10)-6: Shut up stuck record …. Smittie was pretty good this world cup and we lost not because of him.
Did he miss the droppies or pass forward etc etc ..
Our gameplan was solid and you have been found out as a fool.
We were FULLY good enough to win the RWC.
14 Oct 2011, 09:29 am
@Brads(Brads)-61:
as opposed to keewis and ozzies…who make it happen…
14 Oct 2011, 09:32 am
@Helen(Helen)-60:
The kiwis have not been tested yet in this world cup.
By tested do you mean having lost a game?
14 Oct 2011, 09:33 am
Craig Joubert could well be the deciding factor. He is the classic home-town ref who will do anything to avoid being booed off the field by the home crowd – as the Stormers/WP found out in the Super 15 and Currie Cup finals last year. The All Blacks will get a penalty at the breakdown every time they ask for one.
14 Oct 2011, 09:34 am
@dr dre(dr dre)-62:
Gotta say, I agree with you.
I hold no grudges against Spies, Smit, Habana or even Divvy.
TThey did everything to win that game and if they had (which they should’ve), we’d be singing the priases of these players today.
14 Oct 2011, 09:35 am
@Brads(Brads)-64:
They have not had one single close game where they’ve had an opportunity to put their “under pressure”-game plan into place.
14 Oct 2011, 09:37 am
Can’t wait for the first Quade vs Richie scuffle.
It will be the stuff of legend.
14 Oct 2011, 09:37 am
@once more just take a break on the beach, dear springboks, once more…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-63:
Who make what happen?
Getting to the semi finals perhaps rather than crashing early?
Help me here!
14 Oct 2011, 09:37 am
@Brads(Brads)-69:
Sorry bud.
We can’t help you.
It seems you were born this way
14 Oct 2011, 09:41 am
So the okes on Reunion reckon that Lawrence was not bad, that Pocock is the greatest thing since sliced bread and we have ourselves to blame and our reaction to Lawrence is way over the top !!!
14 Oct 2011, 09:44 am
@Helen(Helen)-67:
Perhaps that may be due to the fact they are so much better than their opposition to date.
The closest comparison would be Argentina, after all they at least weren’t in NZ’s pool.
Argentina played against Wales and England and the scoring results of those matches tend to point where the respective teams are sitting today.
14 Oct 2011, 09:44 am
@Brads(Brads)-69: Easy, tiger. It’s been 24 years since your lot pulled their one and only triumph in an experimental, invitational tournament that the best team in the world (at the time) was not invited to. Don’t get ahead of yourself here. We’ve done it twice in the last 16 years. Just keep it in your pants until the All Blacks actually have their hands on Bill, ok?
14 Oct 2011, 09:46 am
@justrugby(justrugby)-71: Brilliant. Someone should make a film clip comparing that to their reaction to Wayne Barnes in 2007.
14 Oct 2011, 09:46 am
@Helen(Helen)-70:
So you @justrugby(justrugby)-71:
Yep
14 Oct 2011, 09:48 am
@pierre(pierre)-73:
Pierre, well said.
I’d be nervous if I was a kiwi today.
Played 6
Won 1
17% record in RWC.
Not the kind of record that justifies the arrogance we’re seeing on here from kiwis lately
14 Oct 2011, 09:49 am
@Brads(Brads)-69:
cheating ozzies and ab’s make it happen…the way brussow was repeatedly hit with a fist to the face (k’o punched) and then shoulder charged (from an illegal position) into the ribs intentionally (as you know this took him out of the game) kinda happen….
it was the ozzies this time but the ab’s have also done it before.
you know this…why ask me about it…
14 Oct 2011, 09:49 am
@Brads(Brads)-72: unlike smit not one AB player commented on barnes reffing after the 07 WC.true class.
14 Oct 2011, 09:50 am
‘Fully good enough to win the world cup’ but they didn’t , another load of compromising garbage by these f’ng apologetically befucked apologists.
The World cup was lost when we lost our mojo long before kick off, long before the anthems were sung, the WC was lost when Boks went in lacking belief in a f’ng awesome load of bullshit aura that simply didn’t exist. The WC was LOST when we went in carrying passengers of Smit, Spies, FdP and hero worshiping dumb idiots like Burger who cannot control a ball on the ground in a ruck, Twice handing over possession to opposition once on our tryline once on theirs and both times losing possession and the game.
Had Bismark, Alberts, Louw, Hougaard started the match we would NOT be sitting in this glum I told you so position. Dumb fck apologists that cannot and WON’T see where exactly the sh’t hit the fan are thoroughly deserving of being useless apologetical losers because that’s exactly what they ARE !!
14 Oct 2011, 09:50 am
@justrugby(justrugby)-71: even when they showed nathan sharpe tackling schalk hardly a metre from the line, not realising him and THEN stealing the ball on the deck with bryce crouching down next to the pole to get a good view, stuart barnes said “ag referees miss these things all the time, south africans are just over-reacting”
14 Oct 2011, 09:50 am
@Brads(Brads)-69:
but as helen says…it seems you were born this way….
i’m not a fan of foolish rhetorical musical chairs.
14 Oct 2011, 09:51 am
sorry brads,comment meant for justrugby.
14 Oct 2011, 09:51 am
@pierre(pierre)-73:
Pull back a bit there.
I haven’t pushed the notion that NZ are dead set to win.
Where did you pick that up from?
14 Oct 2011, 09:51 am
@justrugby(justrugby)-71:
Then the Ball Sacks won’t mind if Craig Joubert blows them out of the game?
14 Oct 2011, 09:53 am
@Transformation(Transformation)-80: 03 WC,george smith talking out justin marshall late,cost us the game i believe.
14 Oct 2011, 09:53 am
These twats blaming Johm Smit for our loss remind me of Julius Malema!! “Eet is da white man’s fault thet I em reech!!”! It is apartheid’s fault that grandfathers rape their grandchildren!!! Twats!!!
14 Oct 2011, 09:56 am
@Transformation(Transformation)-80:
I have said it before.
SA were leading. Aus were knackered and had nothing in the tank other than desperation. 8 minutes on the clock and there was only one likely result
cue Roussow to change it.
14 Oct 2011, 09:56 am
@Brads(Brads)-83: Where did I get that from? Well mate, it’s a bit embarrassing to be mocking the deposed champtions for their early exit unless you’re saying that your own team is going to go on and win it, don’t you think? It really makes no difference whether you come second or eighth if you don’t win the tournament.
14 Oct 2011, 09:57 am
@Gunther(gunther)-84: it’s called “leniency” ..
14 Oct 2011, 09:59 am
“champions” – eish, typo.
14 Oct 2011, 10:00 am
@Gunther(gunther)-84:
If the ABs have 75% possession and territory and lose, it wont be the ref that will be hung out to dry by supporters.
14 Oct 2011, 10:01 am
Tim Noakes convinced the quarter final vs Aussie was fixed demanding full inquest into Lawrence lack of refereeing capacity where he simply avoided reffing the breakdown or ruck infringements and high tackles. Noakes reckons its an IRB setup in favor of allowing the hosts an easier semi to negotiate. Noakes wants full IRB inquiry into the saga in order to prove the match weren’t ‘fixed’
14 Oct 2011, 10:03 am
Ryan, if you watch the other games Bryce Lawrence didn’t have a ‘laissez-faire’ approach to the breakdown. I know because I watched England v Argentina where he was all over both sides awarding penalties left, right and centre. He suddenly developed this approach when SA played Australia. I can see why some journalists don’t want to complain but it’s not sour grapes if something corrupt has happened and it’s pretty clear it has.
14 Oct 2011, 10:04 am
@pierre(pierre)-88:
I was not dissing the Bok’s
Track back and read the comment I was responding to, or more correctly the blogger I was responding to.
14 Oct 2011, 10:06 am
@Brads(Brads)-91: @Brads(Brads)-91:
funny its was the ref who was hung out to dry the last time.
14 Oct 2011, 10:07 am
@ashampoopaloo(joel1yahoo)-92: That conspiracy theory stuff is rubbish. Lawrence was just feeling sensitive after being accused of bias pre-emptively by the Aussie press all week, and so he over-corrected in the other direction.
14 Oct 2011, 10:08 am
@Brads(Brads)-94: Okay fair enough mate, point taken.
14 Oct 2011, 10:10 am
@pierre(pierre)-96:
Well you are half right with your comment.
14 Oct 2011, 10:10 am
@dermie(dermie)-85:
errrrrrr no, it was a ****** intercept pass thrown by your f/half that cost you the game…have the decency to be honest about facts being facts after the fact…that said facts are plainly and clearly established.
14 Oct 2011, 10:11 am
****** = s h i t t y
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