Stage set for Eden Park epic
14 Oct 2011
RYAN VREDE with the assistance of ruckingoodstats.com analyses the strengths and weaknesses of New Zealand and Australia ahead of their World Cup semi-final clash.
Australia undoubtedly come into the match as underdogs, having lost eight of their last 10 Tests against the Blacks, and having not won at this venue in 10 attempts, dating back to 6 September 1986.
They have furiously attempted to deflect the pressure onto the Blacks, claiming that the match is theirs to lose. That is a fallacy. With the hosts shorn of their fulcrum Dan Carter and with the talismanic Richie McCaw’s influence compromised by an injury, the youthful Wallabies will privately be aware that the Blacks are vulnerable in a way they haven’t been in some time.
Graham Henry’s charges, piloted by young Aaron Cruden, carry the weight of expectation that needs to be experienced to be fully comprehended. There is the distinct sense of trepidation among the Kiwis, evident in their media coverage and, more pertinently, in the discussions in their coffee shops and pubs.
A nation is holding its breath. The result will determine which of the anti-depressant or beer markets see a dramatic spike in sales.
Time, possession and territory
New Zealand have bossed possession in the first half in their games at the tournament and dominated territory in both halves. Only South Africa had been better in this regard. Expect them to continue this trend against the Wallabies, who defended desperately and heroically for the bulk of the contest against the Springboks last week.
Both sides rank highly for ball-in-play time, and both have thrived when allowed to play ‘fast’. Ireland built their pool-phase victory on stifling Australia’s ability to do this, while the Blacks haven’t really been tested in this regard. In 2011 New Zealand has lost matches to Australia (Brisbane) and South Africa (Port Elizabeth) when not allowed to play as quickly as they would have liked.
Points
The Blacks and Wallabies are ranked first and second respectively in terms of the average number of tries they’ve scored at the showpiece.
The Wallabies have achieved their try-scoring success playing through an average of 2.9 phases per match and 67 rucks per game (their 2011 average is 84), with New Zealand at 3.1 and 88.
Both have been potent in their opponents’ 22m, the Blacks averaging nine linebreaks in that zone, one more than the visitors. Richie’s Rockets are, however, better equipped to inflict damage from further out, averaging 10 more broken tackles a game between halfway and the opposition’s 22m.
However, in a game that is certain to be tight, the more interestingly study is the accuracy of the goalkickers. Piri Weepu has been an asset, kicking 11/12. Beyond him there is good cover, with Cruden kicking at 79 % (84/106 ) in 2011, and Stephen Donald at 73% (64/88). Wallabies kicker James O’Connor has banked 76% (16 from 21) of his attempts, the most notable of those the penalty that eliminated South Africa in Wellington last week. Cooper is at 50% (4/8) Berrick Barnes 80% (4/5) and Kurtley Beale 0/1.
Defence
The Blacks and Wallabies have missed an average of 11 tackles per World Cup Test, the former missing one tackle in every 7.1 attempts, while the latter is at one in 9.3.
Errors
To underline just how evenly matched these sides are, they have both been excellent at retaining the ball through phases, with both having the among the best records in terms of lost possessions/turnovers per game. With the breakdown set to be a key facet of play, it is interesting to note that neither side has been particularly vulnerable here, the Blacks averaging 1.8 and Wallabies 2.4 turnovers per match.
Given the threat both pose from turnover ball, a single pilfer from the likes of McCaw or David Pocock could be decisive to the outcome. Australia have had better discipline at ruck time, conceding four penalties on average, but how both teams fare here will lean largely on referee Craig Joubert’s management of the breakdown. We’ll discuss the South African shortly.
Set pieces
Testament to their preference to keep the ball alive, neither side sets many lineouts. Indeed they rank among the lowest teams in this regard. At scrum time, the Blacks getting penalised more, on average, on the opposition’s feed.
The ref
Joubert has been excellent to date, displaying none of the pedantic traits of some of his colleagues on the elite panel, and also certainly not of Bryce Lawrence’s laissez faire approach, particularly to managing the breakdown. Statistics reveal that is unlikely to be stricter in one facet of play over another, although he does rank fourth for ruck penalties.
By Ryan Vrede, in Auckland.
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209 Comments
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14 Oct 2011, 10:14 am
Picture this:
- Kaino on the charge gets to within a metre of the line…. and the ball suddenly, miraculously trickles out, Samo snaffles…Wallabies clear the line by kicking the ball out.
- Cooper makes a break and while passing the ball to Beale in the clear, he is thumped in the tackle. Beale dives over the tryline, scores… The crowd screams “forward” to no avail… Joubert raises his arm – try given.
- Scrum goes down, on the Wallaby 22m, Prrt… Penalty to the Wallabies.
Marginal calls…blind calls… could all go the way of the Wallabies this weekend. Consequently I wonder if AB fans next week will be as coolly reflective as this.
14 Oct 2011, 10:14 am
@ashampoopaloo(joel1yahoo)-79:
Shampoo, if Bryce had only blown Pocock once out of the 4 illegal steals (the one under the posts), the score would have been 12 – 11 for the Boks.
If Bryce had blown the others, it could conceivably have been 15 – 11 at least, but possibly 18 -11.
Then, if he had not blown the Boks for the 3 non-infringemnets, we would have had EVEN better territory and who knows what that would’ve led to. Let’s be conservative and say no points came from it.
Then, if Bryce had blown the high tackles and no-arms tackles by the Aussies, I think then the balance would’ve shifted. Again, let’s assume the Boks didn’t take advantage of that. The score remains at 18 – 11
Then, if Bryce had remembered Refereeing 101, he would not have blown the 2 forward passes that were actually Bok tries. Let’s again be conservative and say only one of those tries were allowed. That makes it 25 – 11 at least.
The last penalty against Russouw was clearly not a penalisable offence as he only interfered with the jumer once he’d gotten down from his jump.
Then, if Bryce had decided to be at least an average ref, someone would’ve gotten a yellow card for the treatment of Brussouw. Again, I am being very conservative and say the Boks didn’t take advantage of playing against 14 men, the score would at least have been 25 – 11.
Personally, I would think 33 – 8 is a fairer reflection of what the score line should’ve been if another ref had officiated.
14 Oct 2011, 10:15 am
these twas that refuse to see where the wheels came off in this world cup campaign are no better than a bunch of blind apologetically bewildered bats with their eyes stuck somewhere up their hero worshiping backsides
14 Oct 2011, 10:16 am
@once more just take a break on the beach, dear springboks, once more…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-99:
Unbelievably, you have posted someting I agree with.
14 Oct 2011, 10:20 am
@ashampoopaloo(joel1yahoo)-103:
Aparently, I am one of those twasses (sic) who has her eyes in her bum.
Hmmmm…. struggling to get my mind around that insult. It almost sounds like a compliment.
Either way, you are delusional if you believe the Boks deserved to lose on Sunday.
I hope the Aussies win with the same illagal tactics so the kiwis can join us in detesting the yellow jersey
14 Oct 2011, 10:21 am
@Helen(Helen)-102:
33-8???
That is one big assumption.
All we do know is that one team played to the ref, the other didn’t.
14 Oct 2011, 10:22 am
@once more just take a break on the beach, dear springboks, once more…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-99: do you recall said incident,smith,late shoulder not even penalised,marshall had to leave field same as brussow,backline put in disarray,game over.Wannabies get away with cheap shot again.
14 Oct 2011, 10:24 am
@Helen(Helen)-102:
for the kiwis they can only point to one ‘controversial’ pass in 2007.
this was something all together else…and it was digusting…
14 Oct 2011, 10:24 am
@Brads(Brads)-106:
One team played according to the generally accepted rules of Rugby.
The other didn’t
It’s like saying that if a cyclist can find a way of camouflaging the anabolic steriods in his blood, he desrves to win. Where’s the honour in that?
It’s just not cricket.
14 Oct 2011, 10:25 am
@dermie(dermie)-107:
Sorry, the game was lost when Spencer’s pass was picked off by Mortlock.
He ran the length of the field and scored. It was a 14 point play.
14 Oct 2011, 10:25 am
@once more just take a break on the beach, dear springboks, once more…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-108:
This was not a mere oversight as 2007
It was a deliberate and consistent ambush of the better team
I can deal with one or two decisions not going our way, but Sunday was a black day for the game.
14 Oct 2011, 10:30 am
@Brads(Brads)-110: that was after marshall went off and smith wasn’t yellow carded absoulute cheap shot,lined him up and nailed him about 1/2 hour after he’d passed the ball and wasn’t expecting the hit,dogs act.
14 Oct 2011, 10:32 am
@ashampoopaloo(joel1yahoo)-103:
shut up.
14 Oct 2011, 10:32 am
@Brads(Brads)-104:
thanks.
it hurts all the more that we can’t even point to one definitively poor piece of play by any single springbok player that then was the momentum shiffting turn of the tide in this game, as was the case in that.
@dermie(dermie)-107:
fair enough if you think that was the crucial point in the turn of tempo.
i however think it was the pass from spencer.
have always liked spencer, i think he was actually a better out and out ‘outrageously’ skilled 10 than carter is. in terms of pure skill to do the incredible from nowhere.
14 Oct 2011, 10:34 am
@once more just take a break on the beach, dear springboks, once more…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-114: he should have grubbered through in hindsight,try butchered.
14 Oct 2011, 10:36 am
@once more just take a break on the beach, dear springboks, once more…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-114:
I have already done that.
Didn’t you watch the the game to get my pointer?
14 Oct 2011, 10:37 am
@dermie(dermie)-107:
didnt he lose a few ribs in that?
14 Oct 2011, 10:41 am
@dermie(dermie)-112:
The infringement was far too late and incidental.
NZ lost that game fair and proper.
I don’t know of anyone who apportions any blame for that defeat to the refs decisions
14 Oct 2011, 10:49 am
@Helen(Helen)-76: Helen I’m very confident…
Donald might be **** against the Bok’s but he has a 6-1 winning margin against the Wobblies..it’s a certainty..haha
14 Oct 2011, 10:49 am
@once more just take a break on the beach, dear springboks, once more…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-117: he was in agony,went to the citing commissoner where eddie moans was there,who called marshall ‘champ’,he had to leave before he punched his head in.
14 Oct 2011, 10:51 am
@toby(toby)-119: who’s fault it wasn’t 7-0?
14 Oct 2011, 10:53 am
The recession was also John Smit’s fault!!
14 Oct 2011, 10:54 am
@Brads(Brads)-118: i know it’s part of the game,but jeez i hate intercepts.even when the ABs score them i shrug my shoulders,i don’t cxheer.
14 Oct 2011, 10:55 am
It was John Smit who conceded that lineout penalty! Not Danie Rossouw!
14 Oct 2011, 10:57 am
It’s John Smit’s fault that Frans Steyn got injured!
14 Oct 2011, 10:57 am
@dermie(dermie)-121: All players have bad day’s even Dan…so 6-1 is still good:)
14 Oct 2011, 10:58 am
John Smit is the reason for the Blackberry blackout!
14 Oct 2011, 10:58 am
@THE MAULER(Boks still my team)(THE MAULER)-124: @THE MAULER(Boks still my team)(THE MAULER)-125: Yip! Everything is John Smit’s fault.
14 Oct 2011, 11:00 am
It’s John Smit who told Bryce to blow like an ***!!
14 Oct 2011, 11:02 am
@toby(toby)-119: I’m glad you are, because I’m a little nervous. I know the blacks will play their socks off in this match, and they owe the Wallabies one, after their defeat in Brisbane. I remember thinking after that game. Let it go boys, it’s not the one that counts this year. The injuries though have caused worries. I just hope they go out on that pitch and play for eachother and Richie get’s his revenge on Quade for the cheap shots he has been getting in on Richie. Go Blacks!
14 Oct 2011, 11:05 am
@toby(toby)-119:
What are you talking about?
Donald only ever played in S14 matches until that disaster in Hong Kong. clearly his brain had not switched over to the fact that winning the game by any margin was good enough.
How hard is that to work out?
A RWC semi final is like that game in Hong Kong. A win is all that is required, not a flamboyant display of attacking or counter attacking rugby.
Donald will be forever be regarded as a total knucklehead. His only redemption could come from playing a blinder as a sub sometime in the semi or final if we get that far.
But I don’t want to go there. To even think Donald could be needed to come off the bench to save the day is too much to absorb.
14 Oct 2011, 11:07 am
@THE MAULER(Boks still my team)(THE MAULER)-124:
Well that is interesting.
How do you come to blame Smit?
14 Oct 2011, 11:08 am
@Brads(Brads)-131: I don’t even want him near the pitch. Just seeing him back in the black jersey is freaking me out.
14 Oct 2011, 11:10 am
@Brads(Brads)-132:
Over reacted – missed the irony
14 Oct 2011, 11:10 am
the recession was not John Smit’s fault but the Boks going out the world cup hanging their heads in disbelief was… amongst couple other things like believing Burger is the chief cook and bottle washer back line general ball carrying go to man.. or that FdP another hopeless palooka washed up hero is the back line general decision making genius.. or that Spies contributes anything worthy of a hard line defense or attack option anywhere in the Bok’s winning culture frame..
This campaign was lost when Boks decided they were going to Compromise by carrying passengers the likes of Smit, Spies and FdP ahead of raring to go front foot do or die game breakers and balls for glory specialists such as Bismark, Alberts and Hougaard.. who had they started on Sunday none of this cry baby bunting referee went bokkie hunting song and dance routine would be beseeching the airwaves..
Boks lost because they were NOT prepared to go for broke and play their best players first.. and went in compromising with 2nd best safety first options thinking the real bust a gut protagonists would come on later and save the show again…
The bottom line of the saga is that Smit was nowhere NEAR to being this awe inspiring captain marvelous that was hung around his neck because if anyone cares to ACTUALLY take a look at HOW he conducted himself as this awesome f’ng nonentity of a losing leader they would see he never led ONCE in all the minutes he played.. not even Bryce the little miserable myce was even halfway taking ANY notice of him.. in short he was reduced to a f’ng sentimentally enshrined totem pole passenger with f’all real value of contribution whatsof’ng ever, and had we bust a gut from kickoff playing our game breaking main ball carriers and clean out specialists like Bismark and Alberts and Hougaard first.. not Smit, Spies and FdP.. we would have WON not a shadow of a doubt surrounding that assessment..
Sport like life has a way of exposing those principles which are founded on shallow empty feeble principles of compromise and platitude .. and picking Smit over Bismark, was specifically the root of the fall out consequence.. the body language even spelled it out… Spies over Alberts and FdP over Hougaard just exacerbated the lost cause.. but the fundamental crux of the problem and the real reason why Boks did not proceed beyond Australia in the quarter final showdown is primarily due to the Compromise of playing Smit as the lost leader of the losing lost laid back cause…
14 Oct 2011, 11:11 am
@ashampoopaloo(joel1yahoo)-103: it’s over skop, drop it geez…
smit has retired, it is done…no need to want to change your nic to “vindicated”…
14 Oct 2011, 11:16 am
@once more just take a break on the beach, dear springboks, once more…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-108:
lol , one forward pass?
You really didnt watch the game in 2007 ABs vs France did you.
The 2nd half was full on infringing and hands in rucks and slowing the ball down aginst the ABs. We were on the french line so many times that half yet they defended by playing the ref, as OZ did against the Boks.
Boks were put out by not taking the points on offer as was the the ABs in 2007, easy
14 Oct 2011, 11:16 am
@Brads(Brads)-131: @rossoneri(rossoneri)-133: go BEAVER!
you guys are underestimating beaver and are thrashing him unnecessarily!
he is better than delany, berquist, sopoaga, brett, tony brown, kirkpatrick, robbie robinson, michael hobbs
14 Oct 2011, 11:19 am
Who’s thrashing beavers here.
14 Oct 2011, 11:19 am
14 Oct 2011, 11:23 am
@Brads(Brads)-106: You know that sounds like collusion between ref and players, don’t you? Just saying.
14 Oct 2011, 11:24 am
the team with the less quotas will win!
14 Oct 2011, 11:29 am
I love the smell of beaver in the morning.
14 Oct 2011, 11:31 am
@Hurricane(Hurricane)-137:
perhaps i’ll watch it again hurricane.
now that i’ve gone through the pain of being robbed i should be better able to see it happen to others. not saying i’m agreeing but will watch it again with an ‘open’ mind.
14 Oct 2011, 11:35 am
@>^..^< katman(katman)-141:
No that sounds like intelligence compared to natural instinct.
14 Oct 2011, 11:36 am
@Gunther(gunther)-143:
beavers?
wet and mouldy, no?
is it like gerbils?
14 Oct 2011, 11:39 am
@Helen(Helen)-102: Agreed.
14 Oct 2011, 11:40 am
@once more just take a break on the beach, dear springboks, once more…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-144:
You do that mate.I am sure you will get back to me though
Personally i think the Boks robbed themselves in this one, damn, the game was there, right in your hand, just could not finish it, shame everything is was done so perfectly.
SA with the best kicker in the world, best drop kicker in the world within 40 maters, i too would be damn dissapointed and the feeling of being robbed, honestly,i hear ya mate.
14 Oct 2011, 11:40 am
@Brads(Brads)-145: I don’t think you even know what you meant there. Slow down with the cleverness, rain man.
14 Oct 2011, 11:42 am
@ashampoopaloo(joel1yahoo)-92:
Noakes should demand an explanation into why the Boks were so DOFF in the second half they couldn’t even follow Naas Botha’s half-times advice to play the game as the ref is obviously reffing it, up their counter-rucking and cleaning-out as the Aussies were doing…
And further why they simply could not realise that after 250 odd tackles of swinging it wide with no points to show… perhaps they should in the last 20 minutes revert back to their strengths and a>go for the drop b>attempt to maul it over c>kick for touch (where they were pilfering 30% of Wallaby) LO!
Last last 20 minutes lost that game because of exactly all of the above…
But continue to blame Smit, Burger, Lawrence, Beelzebub rather… cause one things for sure… you haven’t the slightest farking clue when it comes to dissecting a game you old tortured soul!
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