Stage set for Eden Park epic
14 Oct 2011
RYAN VREDE with the assistance of ruckingoodstats.com analyses the strengths and weaknesses of New Zealand and Australia ahead of their World Cup semi-final clash.
Australia undoubtedly come into the match as underdogs, having lost eight of their last 10 Tests against the Blacks, and having not won at this venue in 10 attempts, dating back to 6 September 1986.
They have furiously attempted to deflect the pressure onto the Blacks, claiming that the match is theirs to lose. That is a fallacy. With the hosts shorn of their fulcrum Dan Carter and with the talismanic Richie McCaw’s influence compromised by an injury, the youthful Wallabies will privately be aware that the Blacks are vulnerable in a way they haven’t been in some time.
Graham Henry’s charges, piloted by young Aaron Cruden, carry the weight of expectation that needs to be experienced to be fully comprehended. There is the distinct sense of trepidation among the Kiwis, evident in their media coverage and, more pertinently, in the discussions in their coffee shops and pubs.
A nation is holding its breath. The result will determine which of the anti-depressant or beer markets see a dramatic spike in sales.
Time, possession and territory
New Zealand have bossed possession in the first half in their games at the tournament and dominated territory in both halves. Only South Africa had been better in this regard. Expect them to continue this trend against the Wallabies, who defended desperately and heroically for the bulk of the contest against the Springboks last week.
Both sides rank highly for ball-in-play time, and both have thrived when allowed to play ‘fast’. Ireland built their pool-phase victory on stifling Australia’s ability to do this, while the Blacks haven’t really been tested in this regard. In 2011 New Zealand has lost matches to Australia (Brisbane) and South Africa (Port Elizabeth) when not allowed to play as quickly as they would have liked.
Points
The Blacks and Wallabies are ranked first and second respectively in terms of the average number of tries they’ve scored at the showpiece.
The Wallabies have achieved their try-scoring success playing through an average of 2.9 phases per match and 67 rucks per game (their 2011 average is 84), with New Zealand at 3.1 and 88.
Both have been potent in their opponents’ 22m, the Blacks averaging nine linebreaks in that zone, one more than the visitors. Richie’s Rockets are, however, better equipped to inflict damage from further out, averaging 10 more broken tackles a game between halfway and the opposition’s 22m.
However, in a game that is certain to be tight, the more interestingly study is the accuracy of the goalkickers. Piri Weepu has been an asset, kicking 11/12. Beyond him there is good cover, with Cruden kicking at 79 % (84/106 ) in 2011, and Stephen Donald at 73% (64/88). Wallabies kicker James O’Connor has banked 76% (16 from 21) of his attempts, the most notable of those the penalty that eliminated South Africa in Wellington last week. Cooper is at 50% (4/8) Berrick Barnes 80% (4/5) and Kurtley Beale 0/1.
Defence
The Blacks and Wallabies have missed an average of 11 tackles per World Cup Test, the former missing one tackle in every 7.1 attempts, while the latter is at one in 9.3.
Errors
To underline just how evenly matched these sides are, they have both been excellent at retaining the ball through phases, with both having the among the best records in terms of lost possessions/turnovers per game. With the breakdown set to be a key facet of play, it is interesting to note that neither side has been particularly vulnerable here, the Blacks averaging 1.8 and Wallabies 2.4 turnovers per match.
Given the threat both pose from turnover ball, a single pilfer from the likes of McCaw or David Pocock could be decisive to the outcome. Australia have had better discipline at ruck time, conceding four penalties on average, but how both teams fare here will lean largely on referee Craig Joubert’s management of the breakdown. We’ll discuss the South African shortly.
Set pieces
Testament to their preference to keep the ball alive, neither side sets many lineouts. Indeed they rank among the lowest teams in this regard. At scrum time, the Blacks getting penalised more, on average, on the opposition’s feed.
The ref
Joubert has been excellent to date, displaying none of the pedantic traits of some of his colleagues on the elite panel, and also certainly not of Bryce Lawrence’s laissez faire approach, particularly to managing the breakdown. Statistics reveal that is unlikely to be stricter in one facet of play over another, although he does rank fourth for ruck penalties.
By Ryan Vrede, in Auckland.
Follow Ryan’s World Cup coverage on twitter
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209 Comments
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14 Oct 2011, 11:45 am
@>^..^< katman(katman)-149:
I knew exactly what I wrote.
As you did with your not so subtle allegation of corruption.
14 Oct 2011, 11:51 am
@Brads(Brads)-151: “One team played to the ref.”
Sounds to me like they had an understanding. Looked that way too.
14 Oct 2011, 12:04 pm
@bryce_in_oz(bryce_in_oz)-150: You dont get it – Oz would of continued cheating and any sniff of the try line for us would of been blown incorrectly by the cheating ref – Even when we scored (twice) the pass’s was incorrectly ruled forward. Hindsight is awesome – There was no way BL would of given us a penalty – the boks should of got a number of penalties – Normally when a side is under the amount of pressure the wobblies were under penalties come. so no need to kick the ball away in a high risk drop goal attempt.
Mauling – ha ha – Oz would of illegally and did collapse any maul that was formed, coming in on the wrong side – high tackles were not even being blown never mind the breakdown. The boks had no reason to change tactics – the tactics were working perfectly.
its like a ref going out in a game of soccer and deciding not to blow offsides for the game. Crazy!!! and anyone who does not acknowledge the threat this kind of decision has to our beautiful game is an idiot. Rules are rules.
14 Oct 2011, 12:25 pm
@Durban Docks(Durban Docks)-153:
No perhaps it’s you that don’t get it pal…
Why not play the ref the same way as the Aussies did after half time when it was obvious how he was going to play it not too mention start clearing-out and counter-rucking the ball players off the paddock as the Aussies did?
Naas said it, Breyton said it, Tony Johnson said it… our entire lounge room in Westville said it!
Was the Bok’s only strategy to negate Pocock to play Brussouw ?
Because it sure as hell wasn’t the Aussie’s solution… there’s was a multiple player ferocious clean-out… and it worked… they took Brussouw right out of the game Juan Smith and Bakkie’s style!
After that the Bok’s had no clue… sommer try and lie over the ball to protect it…
Boks had almost 75% of possession in that second half but could not penetrate the granite defence… did Bryce Lawrence tell them not to at least attempt a few more drops when the pocket was there on several occasions when the Boks were blindly swinging it wide?
Did Bryce Lawrence say to stop kicking for touch when he had already awarded us 30% of Wallabies LO’s?
Nope… but he missed some shocker calls, he didn’t police the break-down for either sides… but how stupid is anyone that has watched any RWC tournament if they think they can leave the game in the hands of a ref… ask NZ in 2007!
I commend the Bok’s for bringing their ‘rather simple’ game-plan B of keeping ball-in-hand and starving the opposition of possession by not kicking it away… but boy… you have to be a right plonker coming into the last 20 minutes to not see that after 250 odd tackles, 75% of possession, all the territory and only one line-break that you’re getting nowhere and should take some points in the 22 through other methods rather than plod from side to side swinging the ball!
NEVER leave a RWC test match in the hands of a ref… adapt or die… and the rest they say is history…
14 Oct 2011, 12:37 pm
@Durban Docks(Durban Docks)-153: yeah, if SA had hit another drop-goal you would’ve put your money on BL awarding Australia another kickable penalty, SA weren’t going to be allowed to win that game. What happened was supposed to happen.
14 Oct 2011, 12:46 pm
@bryce_in_oz(bryce_in_oz)-154: You still talking about the outcome of this game – we lost im over it, yes we should of adapted and started cheating like the Ozzies, sure!!
But im also not convinced that adapting to the ref would of helped the cause – Who knows maybe Morne would of kicked it straight through the poles and BL would of decided it missed (see Wales). We scored two legitimate tries IMHO and both were not even sent upstairs to the 3rd umpire for referral. How??? This game was rigged from the start.
Im ranting about the effect that this Refs actions will have on Rugby in the future. It is now plain as day for anyone with a brain and eyes to see that Refs do influence the game and that there are various refs that are blatantly incompetent and even cheat. Corruption in cricket, boxing, soccer and now obviously rugby it seems.
14 Oct 2011, 12:46 pm
Looks like bias against South Africa runs in the Lawrence family:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=4302
14 Oct 2011, 12:53 pm
@Big Hit(Big Hit)-155: Amen
14 Oct 2011, 13:22 pm
@Schalk is Pote Fouries daughter(richardmarais)-157: All refs hate the boks – im thinking back to the tri-Nations when all the boks could do was get yellow carded in the first 5mins of every game. Someone put out a stat that the Kiwis have never got a yellow card playing the Boks??? Incredible??? .
There is bias towards us and for me its like closure because before there was still room for doubt – now im convinced of it.
Im also very proud of our boys for not resorting to cheating to win the game and still trying to play within the laws. Some people call them doff??
but i watched a magnificent display of dominance, against all odds, by some of the greatest rugby players (and gentlemen) we will ever be blessed to see gracing our rugby fields. Its like asking a great like Allan Donald to pick the seam of the cricket ball in his last match to make sure of a victory on a flat pitch or something with the ref not giving any LBWs etc
14 Oct 2011, 13:43 pm
@Big Hit(Big Hit)-155:
What a load of shite.
14 Oct 2011, 13:44 pm
oh gents, take off your Green Goggles. Have a sit down with a complete neutral supporter and watch the tri-nations/WC games again. And not just the last one – all of them. You’ll be pleasantly surprised how many times the Boks should be blown up, and don’t get blown up. And after looking at replays again you’ll get to debate where the Boks were blown up and if they really deserved it – and of course where the other team is adjudged to get away with murder.
But get real – there is no conspiracy. Nobody hates the Boks and intentionally goes out to blow against them. Sure, the quality of reffing in the S15, tri-nations, and WC has been shocking and needs to be addressed by the IRB – but now match fixing because the Boks lost? For 4 years the AB’s got told by Bok supporters to suck it up and move on, bad refereeing decisions happen. Where those supporters now?
14 Oct 2011, 13:45 pm
@Durban Docks(Durban Docks)-159:
yer you paranoid c lown we are all out to get you because if we weren’t you’d win everything lol
14 Oct 2011, 13:49 pm
Richie7
make an appointment to see Dr Nils Crane, now.
It worked for me.
14 Oct 2011, 13:53 pm
Sweet melody of whinge. Day 6.
14 Oct 2011, 13:54 pm
@Black Panther(Black Panther)-163: Who’s Crane?
14 Oct 2011, 13:56 pm
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA)-162: surprised you can still type with your head buried so deep in the sand.
What do you make of the stat that the mighty all blacks – including the mighty Maccaw (who never cheats!! ) never getting a yellow card against the BOks?
14 Oct 2011, 14:02 pm
Ok im done, i can feel my blood pressure rising – i take my comment about all refs hating the Boks back.
14 Oct 2011, 14:04 pm
@Durban Docks(Durban Docks)-166:
and Lomu never scored against the Bokke, if you had a backline that could score tries you’d be taking part this weekend and the ref would have been a star, the scoreboard says you weren’t good enough you’ll just have to live with that
14 Oct 2011, 14:04 pm
@Durban Docks(Durban Docks)-166: try playing to the rules,then you won’t get yellow carded!
14 Oct 2011, 14:13 pm
Rugby fans who never logged on to Keo would actually just assume this was a spoof article.
Unfortunately not.
“‘Bent’ science cost Boks
Cape Town – Just as the dust started to settle on the unsuccessful defence by the Springboks of their Rugby World Cup title, respected sports science guru, Professor Tim Noakes has dropped another bombshell.
In a letter addressed to the Cape Times, Noakes suggested that the result of the World Cup quarter-final between South Africa and Australia was predetermined as a result of what he called ‘bent’ science.
“When science is manipulated to produce a predetermined outcome, it’s called ‘bent’ science. Such science is usually directed by large commercial interest. When the outcome of a sporting event is predetermined, we call it ‘match-fixing,’ Noakes wrote in the letter.
“I am not saying that there was match-fixing, I am saying that the IRB must prove there wasn’t,” Noakes added.
Noakes lamented that South Africans have been unjustly robbed of their World Cup crown and based on the evidence of the match, he does not have a doubt that referee, Bryce Lawrence was benefitting from the outcome of the match.
“Referee (Bryce) Lawrence’s selective inability to apply to the illegal actions of one team, the accepted rugby laws in at least three areas of the game can unfortunately be interpreted in only one way – that he was benefitting from it personally by ensuring that the Wallabies would win this ‘bent’ game,” Noakes added.
“I think an injustice has been done and South Africa as a nation deserves the truth.”
Noakes went onto say that match fixing should not be ruled out as a possibility in rugby as it is already prevalent in cricket as well as football.
“The tragedy of this travesty is that it has undermined the legitimacy of the 2011 Rugby World Cup and has done severe damage to the credibility of the IRB. But worse, it has also robbed the South African rugby team of their legitimate chance for immortality by winning back-to-back RWC’s.”
get this trash out of my country.
14 Oct 2011, 14:14 pm
@dermie(dermie)-169: Whatever – tell that to PoDick …..and Maccaw. Rules – ha ha – there is a funny one!!!
14 Oct 2011, 14:19 pm
@Durban Docks(Durban Docks)-171: thought you’d like it.
14 Oct 2011, 14:25 pm
@Black Panther(Black Panther)-170: http://www.hayibo.com/match-fixing-accuser-noakes-to-use-more-medieval-logic-to-prove-that-all-blacks-are-witches/
And fitting picture.
14 Oct 2011, 14:34 pm
@Nils(Nils)-173:
it wasn’t the all blacks who cheated us but it was a kiwi.
14 Oct 2011, 14:45 pm
@bryce_in_oz(bryce_in_oz)-154:
we didn’t leave the game in his hands…he ffucking took it into his hands and ffucked us. he ffucked us because thats the only way you people can break the boks…low and dirty…look the other way, pat on the back from the kissing cousins…
14 Oct 2011, 14:50 pm
@once more just take a break on the beach, dear springboks, once more…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-174: whatever mate. Without going too deep into that matter all I can say is follow the same advice your compatriots has given us so richly last 4 years.
14 Oct 2011, 14:58 pm
@Black Panther(Black Panther)-170: That’s not half as bad as that dastardly ref who wouldn’t let Richie score his try half way up the post’s padding. I mean, he’s Richie McBloodyCaw and he’s an All Black with 100 tests behind him. He should be allowed to ground the ball in mid air if he so chooses. The Outrage of it!
14 Oct 2011, 15:04 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-177:
-wibble-
14 Oct 2011, 15:22 pm
@Gunther(gunther)-178: I notice El Panto Ne-gro disappears every time I mention this amusing anecdote. This is most disappointing as I would very much like to chat to him about some other “grounding” laws that need clearing up.
Like, when is it permissible to ground the ball against the touch judge?
And, should you ground the ball on the 22 my mistake, but you’re the All Blacks playing at home, should it be referred upstairs?
And finally, with grounding decisions, when will we see the introduction of the amendment that allows refs overrule the TMO based on the word of two or more All Blacks?
All very pertinent questions, I’m sure you agree.
14 Oct 2011, 15:46 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-179:
seems like a well-grounded argument.
14 Oct 2011, 15:51 pm
@Nils(Nils)-176:
well its just 4 years for us, i accept…best hope its not another 4 more for your lot.
14 Oct 2011, 15:59 pm
@Durban Docks(Durban Docks)-153: One of the major roles of a fetcher flank is to (strictly speaking) cheat. Brussow, McCaw and Pocock they all do it. When our own player gets away with it he is brilliant when the other teams players gets away with it he is a cheat. The ref was poor no doubt but we lost because we could not convert every stat that was in our favour into points. The way we are now whinging as a nation certainly does us a disservice. If there is a suspicion of actual cheating by officials then it is up to our rugby board to do something about it. I maintain that the ref in 2007 in the All Blacks game against France was poor but he never cost them the game the All Blacks performance did. Same with us against the Wallabies.
14 Oct 2011, 15:59 pm
@Black Panther(Black Panther)-170:
At least now finally for the first time since 2007… your guys can finally hand over the mantle of being the ‘biggest ref whingers’ over to our guys…
@Gunther(gunther)-180: \
Katman’s been known for posting with both feet firmly on the ground…
14 Oct 2011, 16:24 pm
@Durban Docks(Durban Docks)-153:
No mate read my post again… you still do not get it… where do I suggest cheating?
The Bok’s lost because:
>Their only plan to neutralise Pocock was to play Brussouw… pathetic really (was G10 coaching them)
>They failed to read and adapt to the ref’s interpretation of the breakdown (a big no-no in test rugby)
>They failed to clean-out and counter-ruck as a unit at the break-down (as the Aussies did to negate Brussouw)
>In the final 20mins after relentless attacking against relentless defence, with all the possession and not making any lee-way… failed to switch game-plan B back to game-plan A and take some points via drop-goal on several opportunities.
>Failed to go for touch, but continued swing the ball mindlessly despite stealing 30% of the Wallabies LO ball.
Perhaps they were flustered, perhaps it was due to having no captain on the field, but that my friend is why the Bok’s lost…
Never leave a game in the ref’s hands…
14 Oct 2011, 16:32 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-179:
Panther grinds his ball against anything that moves.
Hence he’s always BAAAAAAAAAAAAAA Oh Oh @@@@@@@@@@@@@’ng here.
14 Oct 2011, 16:35 pm
@once more just take a break on the beach, dear springboks, once more…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-181: No probs mate, time runs fast and the older you are, the faster it goes.
14 Oct 2011, 16:35 pm
@Dawn(Dawn)-185: yes, yes , no no no yes yes YES
14 Oct 2011, 16:44 pm
@Black Panther(Black Panther)-170:
Extraball is guilty of “bent science”
14 Oct 2011, 16:45 pm
Boks lost the quarter final because of compromised sentimentality and that is IT
people that discount the amount of ingrained psychological dysfunction of a team because it is carrying certain passengers are still more deluded than they are willing to accept..
Boks lost primarily because they were CARRYING John Smit who has NOT beaten Australia under his leadership ONCE in 2 whole years of trying
You cannot expect a team in spite of ALL the overwhelming so called indestructible spirit to do the necessary when they themselves being led by a non contributing and defunct captain who himself has scant belief that he is capable any longer do what is required to take the game by the scruff of the neck and drive it home to put the game beyond doubt…
Boks lost as a result of inherent compromise.. and lack of the instinct to take the game in their hands and force a win.. in other words they let it get taken from them in spite of their dominance.. and that is primarily a direct result of having been led by a captain who has become an outright LOSER in the past two years where he has FAILED to win any head to head contest against ANY top tier competitive team…
That is why Boks lost..
john Smit culprit No. 1 and following on to this was a coaching melt down where Schalk burger became the go to ball carrying prime mover in the midfield shuffling between breakdown to breakdown but NEVER breaching the advantage line and costing Boks the early try when turned over on his own try line…
FdP is culprit No. 3 along with his cadenza in arms Pierre Spies…
14 Oct 2011, 17:06 pm
@ashampoopaloo(joel1yahoo)-189:
Shut up fuckadilly
We all heard you the first time.
Fukkoff soemwhere else with your babytalk.
14 Oct 2011, 17:54 pm
” “When science is manipulated to produce a predetermined outcome, it’s called ‘bent’ science. Such science is usually directed by large commercial interest.”
Poor old Timmy! Is he really merely looking for much needed research funds and/or subjects for his research again?
There are the rugby rules and then there is the application of those rules. It is all on paper and a case of being in black and white. No ‘science’ there to be “bent”.
Or is he really cryptically referring to the ‘juices’ usually supplied ” by large commercial interest ” not having the super intended effects that they were supposed to have had and thus gave the “bent science”?
Timmy stick to the exercise physiology as you were never good at any sports even the marathon running where you were just mediocre.
Sports injuries and problems like McCardle’s disease is where you are in your element.
14 Oct 2011, 18:07 pm
Only one real question for the Aussies. The answer which will unfortunately be bad news for the OZ.
Will they be able to adapt to a game refereed within the rules.
I think not.
Which will kcuf them up totally.
NZ by 14.
14 Oct 2011, 18:52 pm
@Gunther(gunther)-190:
No you dumb moronic ignoramus imbecile you never heard me the first time because you STILL looking for all manner of reasons and suppositions as to how the fck Boks with all their 836 caps of experience led by this f’ng has been hopeless self seeking palooka could POSSIBLY still lose to Arsetralia after the systematically destroyed them in every phase of every play.. Except where it counted … On the SCORE BOARD!!
And that you can put down to ONE fundamentally flawed psychological reason.. They were NOT primed or motivated sufficiently to do so.. The lack of belief was palpable even before the kick off or the tossing of the coin.. That dubious defunct dysfunctional has been of a useless leader had LONG SINCE given up the ghost of what real leadership actually entailed… Which is to LEAD FROM THE FRONT, not the bloody REAR. !!
Smit lost the WC, it was not some cruel twist of fate or some conspiracy of refereeing match fixings conspiring to destroy the Springbok heritage on the WC stage.. Had John Smit put his team above himself and done the honorable thing some time ago, Boks would have beaten Wales handsomely first game up and whipped Aussie in the quarters, and that in spite of other has been hero’s such as FdP and Spies looking inward and performing at half mast and in spite of Burger being told he was the new carry ball king who should carry every ball into no man’s land no matter what, even right in front of his own posts.
Even in spite of all those discrepancies in reasonable coaching principles, had Smit not usurped Bismarks starting berth, Boks would have won.. Without a glimmer of a shadow of a doubt..
Smitty apologetics and conservative cowardly compromises and pre patterned powerless principles of entitlement and glory seeking prestige is ACTUALLY what fckd Boks out the WC… And NOTHING else but that !!
14 Oct 2011, 19:58 pm
Yip I keep saying it’s all John Smit’s fault!!! Even when he is injured or off the field!! Next year when we lose again it will all be blamed on Smit!! Even PDV’s kak coaching is Smit’s fault!! All PDV’s funny interviews were John Smit’s fault!!
14 Oct 2011, 20:36 pm
its you pathetic Smittykins arsecreeps that are precisely what is fundamentally wrong with SA rugby
in any other country when the player is kaput he is kaput.. and out the way so that the team can flourish and progress.
here we do the opposite.. we first compromise the situation by playing the schmuck at tight head to accommodate this awe inspiring f’ng dead beat leadership… then we play him at loose head when tight head proves to be a liability… to accommodate this awe inspiring fckd up leadership… then when that don’t work we take OFF the best hooker on the planet.. to accommodate this pathetic awe inspiring dumb fck leadership, that ONLY LOSES EVERY g’dam time it leads the team onto the field.. like it LOST again on Sunday.. like it LOST almost EVERY time it led the team in recent memory…!!!
Pathetic hero worshiping IDIOT’s that are satisfied with LOSING.. for the sake of their totem pole fckd up pathetic leader who cannot lead a snowball out of an igloo in Lapland … such is the state of their screwball hero worshiping… LOSE and LOSE and lose again.. as long as they got a fckd up useless leader to cream their pants when he LOSES next time he runs onto the field in awe inspiring compromising dead beat hopeless lead footed leaderless fashion..
15 Oct 2011, 01:02 am
@Nils(Nils)-165:
thats you fella
‘Dr Niles Crane’, a psychiatrist off the show ‘Frasier’.
ref to your “stop the explaining” advice post
I felt positively liberated.
15 Oct 2011, 01:06 am
@>^..^< katman(katman)-177:
an “injustice has been done” that ” robbed the South African rugby team of their legitimate chance for immortality”
an “injustice has been done” that ” robbed the South African rugby team of their legitimate chance for immortality”
an “injustice has been done” that ” robbed the South African rugby team of their legitimate chance for immortality”
an “injustice has been done” that ” robbed the South African rugby team of their legitimate chance for immortality”
an “injustice has been done” that ” robbed the South African rugby team of their legitimate chance for immortality”
where did we last see the word
‘Justice’
used in International Rugby ?
and by whom ?
15 Oct 2011, 01:09 am
“immortality”
seriously, who the FARK do these guys think they are ?!?
Gods ?
15 Oct 2011, 01:10 am
@bryce_in_oz(bryce_in_oz)-183:
“finally” ?
*chortle*
15 Oct 2011, 01:11 am
@>^..^< katman(katman)-179:
“disappear”
from a blogger
at 1:20am local time ?!
what are you
immortal ?
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