Cheetahs set for torturous tour
6 Mar 2012
GARETH DUNCAN says the Cheetahs are likely to return from their overseas tour winless, which could have dire consequences ahead of the 2013 Super Rugby season.
Following defeats in their opening games against the Lions (27-25) and Bulls (51-19), the Cheetahs embark on a journey where they’ve failed so many times before: their Super Rugby overseas leg.
The Bloemfontein franchise has a horrid record against Australian and New Zealand teams. They’ve only managed 21 wins in 77 matches with two draws. Their record against Australian teams worsens to 12 wins in 50 matches with two draws – bad news considering they play the Brumbies and Rebels in their two opening outings on tour. Their record overseas is even more damning as they’ve only picked up two wins in their Super Rugby history.
There will be those who’ll point to the Cheetahs’ 23-3 away win over the Waratahs last season. However, that was their first victory in Australasia in 14 years (they beat the Highlanders 49-18 in 1997). After the Sydney shocker, they were defeated in their three other fixtures on the road against the Reds (41-8), Blues (29-22) and Highlanders (24-21).
There will also be those who’ll point out that the Cheetahs beat both the Brumbies and Rebels in 2011. However, those victories occurred in Bloemfontein, where the Cheetahs perform better with home ground advantage. The harsh reality is that they don’t do as well overseas. And considering the form they’ve shown in the opening rounds in South Africa, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to change their fortunes over the next couple of weeks. Testing trips against the Crusaders and Hurricanes in New Zealand thereafter see the odds of them triumphing on tour stacked heavily against them.
If the Cheetahs fail to achieve a win over the next month, it means they’ll return home on the back of a six-match losing streak. By then, Sanzar and Saru will have discussed and decided on the final plan for the Super Rugby format in 2013.
Despite Saru’s call to enter six teams next season, Sanzar CEO Greg Peters has stressed that the 15-team format can’t change because the current tournament model was sold to broadcast and commercial partners until 2015. With the Southern Kings being guaranteed a Super Rugby slot in the South African conference next year and Sanzar likely to stick to its guns, the only logical solution is for one of the least successful local franchises to make way through a promotion-relegation route. Merging two teams won’t be possible as all the South African teams have already stated that they won’t agree to it.
It’s only round three of the current season this weekend, but there are already signs that the Cheetahs are set for a massive Super Rugby struggle in 2012. We can only speculate what will happen next year, but one can expect the Cheetahs’ tournament participation to be under threat – no matter what solution Saru comes up with.
36 Comments
6 Mar 2012, 14:18 pm
I shudder to think how the Kings will reform
6 Mar 2012, 14:36 pm
Would be difficult for Kings to do any worse than the Cheetahs.
6 Mar 2012, 14:37 pm
Naka waxed lyrical at the start of the season about how the depth of the Cheetahs is the best it’s ever been, despite having lost huge game-breakers/match-winners like Vijoen and Pretorius.
Sure the likes of the Ebershon bros and the young Johann Goosen are very exciting, but the truth is Naka’s so-called depth includes players discarded by other S15 franchises – Justin Downey, George Earle, Rocco Jansen, Ryno Benjamin to name a few.
Add to this a number of key injuries to the likes of Smith (their leader and talisman), Oosthuyzen (their star young player), young Marcel Van Der Merwe (a proven up-and-comer having performed well in the Currie Cup…
Plus indecision as to who makes up their best locking pair (Ferreira is new to the set-up and looks over-rated already, Uys is a retreaded flank and should actually be starting, Vermeulen lacks match fitness…)
Not to mention some questionable selection decisions and chopping and changing in the backline…
If Aadrian Strauss gets injured on tour, I fear it’s all over rover!
6 Mar 2012, 14:41 pm
fark!
its just occured to me that not only are the lions and cheetahs a guaranteed five points away for the oztrilasion they’re also a guaranteed five points at home to the oztrilasions too.
6 Mar 2012, 14:44 pm
@stormer in a teacup(stormer in a teacup)-1: Forgot the “Dragons” bru…
Who knows about the Kings – they might not have the historical “baggage” of losing that the Cheetahs do?
They might start off slow, but how good were the Rebels?
The Saders also came last in their 1st season.
Im sure if the Kings played the Cheetahs now they would lose, so I can understand the concern, but it is time for something new, and at least shake up the Lions and Cheetahs Unions
6 Mar 2012, 14:44 pm
Cats here we come.
There just isn’t another real answer, apart from relegation.
I know the financial aspect doesn’t favour either team
Let me rather put it this way:
Would you rather lose your best players to the Kings ( I think I just threw up a little in my mouth) or would you rather merge and earn less, but then also pay less for your players?
6 Mar 2012, 14:48 pm
1. Oosthuyzen, Van Rensburg, Aadrianse
2. Strauss, Maku, Bezuidenhout
3. Van Der Linde, Cilliers, Aadrianse
4. Van Heerden, Rhodes, Uys
5. Van Der Merwe, Greef, Vermeulen
6. Brussow, Minnie, Grobelaar
7. Smith, Johnson, Van Der Walt
8. Strauss, Whitely, Raubenheimer
9. De Bruyn, Van Zyl, Cronje
10. Jantjies, Goosen, Ebershon
11. Killian, Kamana, Des Fountain
12. Hollenbach, Strauss, James
13. La Grange, Ebershon, Murray
14. Mapoe, Van Rensburg, Snyman
15. Taute, Daniller, Le Roux
6 Mar 2012, 14:50 pm
The Sharks better be calling guys like Brussouw (Imagine Brussouw, Coetzee, Alberts with Kanko, Deysel and Keegan in the Mix), Ebersohn, Goosen, Coenie (move him to tighthead permanently and get him super-fit… he’s a bit of a fattie).
There is some groot kak brewing in SA rugby with the 5 or 6 team debate and Kings coming into the mix!!! Needless to say, they will get a fair bit of talent from whichever team drops out of the SA conference (if that happens).
6 Mar 2012, 14:54 pm
@puff(puff)-7: Exactly. If you could get them to play together as a unit they’d do really well. Especially now that the tournament is so long and depth is vital.
6 Mar 2012, 14:56 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-6:
it’s just brinkmanship.
The wrting is on the wall.
It’s Cats or doodpoesdonner.
6 Mar 2012, 14:57 pm
1. Oosthuyzen 2. Strauss 3. Van Der Linde 4. Van Heerden 5. Van Der Merwe. 6. Brussow 7. Smith 8. Strauss 9. De Bruyn 10. Jantjies 11. Killian 12. La Grange 13. Ebershon 14. Kamana 15. Taute
16. Cilliers/Aadrianse 17. Maku 18. Rhodes/Greef 19. Minnie 20. Cronje/Van Zyl 21. Goosen 22. Murray/Hollenbach
Hmmm…
6 Mar 2012, 14:59 pm
@NicG(NicG)-8: You can’t even give guys like Kanko and Botes a first team spot unless everyone else goes down with injuries.
No one would go to the Sharks.
Have you been to Cape Town lately?
It’s like Durban. But without the humidity, mozzies, tropical diseases, cyanide poisoned rivers, cyclones, and uncollected mess.
Our local government runs things properly, we have wine farms on our doorsteps, there’s just no ways they’d go there.
Everyone knows bananas are for *******.
6 Mar 2012, 15:00 pm
******* = m onkeys.
6 Mar 2012, 15:01 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-6: Don’t think that will happen, think about it, let’s say the Lions lose out, will the Cheetahs want to share the spoils? Erm …. no
6 Mar 2012, 15:02 pm
Cheetahs have been in this competition how many years now… Most Aus/NZ teams would definitely target them as a 5 pointer… Same applies to the Lions the last few seasons… Get the Kings or Spears ,whatever they re called ,in there next season… Can have a look at some new faces… everybody knows if the Lions or Cheetahs play, especially overseas what the result is gonna be… Things might be the same with these new guys, but think they deserve a crack…
6 Mar 2012, 15:05 pm
@line break(line break)-15: Agree they deserve a crack however, they would get hammered by the saders, bulls, stormers, reds etc. Only the Rebels will give them a proper game. I say to hell with more teams, actualy, why not make it the super 12 again? At least we will see quality games week in week out
6 Mar 2012, 15:10 pm
The Cheetahs will beat the Brumbies and go close against the Rebels I reckon. The Rebels new signings will be the difference there.
After beating them last year at home, expect the men from the States to get drilled by the Saders and then they’ll give the Canes a good run.
That really is not a very good Canes side is it? Certainly not the quality of years gone by.
I dont believe the the Cheetahs will be totally embarrased away this year.
6 Mar 2012, 15:12 pm
@John Galt(John Galt)-17: I think the canes will give them a good hiding if they continue to play the way they have (both teams)
6 Mar 2012, 15:12 pm
@wing_14(wing_14)-14: That’s not what a little birdie told me…..
6 Mar 2012, 15:14 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-18: What did you think of Bash this weekend?
6 Mar 2012, 15:15 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-19: will it be worthwhile (financially) for both unions?
6 Mar 2012, 15:17 pm
The Cheetahs could possibly win 3 out of 4… Brumbies, will be rusty after their weekend off… Rebels are possibly the worst team in the comp. The Crusaders should win easily and lastly the Hurricanes game should be 50/50 if the cheetahs can keep the game from getting too loose.
6 Mar 2012, 15:18 pm
@wing_14(wing_14)-20: I think he made a big difference when he came on, i hope he continues to play that way. I have major reservations about his ability to get his line away as well as clear into opposing territory. Maybe Joe can slot in and take those clearing kicks. Or Gio. For a little ‘un he kicks like a mule.
6 Mar 2012, 15:20 pm
@wing_14(wing_14)-21: Well let’s put it this way: Currently they are both in deepshit.
And it won’t get any better if one of them get relegated. Currently they aren’t even half filling the stadiums. With a cats team I suspect they’ll do much better.
If they get their marketing sorted out.
6 Mar 2012, 15:23 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-24: fair point their SB, just hope they can sort it out
6 Mar 2012, 15:26 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-23: He is better than v Aswegen, but then again Grant is a Springbok! I feel sorry for Burton, I think he has very good distribution skills and the potential to be a great flyhalf. Let’s hope Grant kicks into gear and set the backline alight, that is of course if our centres can get the ball to the wings. Joe and Gio can kick well out of hand but I was dissapointed with Joe’s goal kicks, too wayward imo
6 Mar 2012, 15:27 pm
@wing_14(wing_14)-25: ja. First prize would still be to give Cheeky and his entitled bunch of history re-writers the middle finger.
I’d buy a ticket to watch that happen.
6 Mar 2012, 15:30 pm
@wing_14(wing_14)-26: You are right about Burton. He’s solid. A couple of years ago he was probably one of the top 3 fly-halves in SA. After Steyn and JLP.
Joe had a bad game, which is odd because he’s usually so reliable.
6 Mar 2012, 15:30 pm
Cheetahs and Lions to keep autonomy during Currie Cup.
Cheetahs and Lions to merge for S15 Season, with Mitchell as head coach and Drotske, Ackermann and Spencer as his assistants.
Griquas to become feeder union for players to be drafted into Kings S15 squad.
Both Jozi and Free State to get S15 games.
Will suck for some players to not have a home base for a good few months, but that’s how the cookie crumbles…
6 Mar 2012, 15:30 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-27: It can still happen, can’t it?
6 Mar 2012, 15:40 pm
@wing_14(wing_14)-30: I sure as hellhope so.
But something tells me this is just stupid enough a decision for SARU to actually implement it.
Still, there is a silver lining to this cloud: Consider the South African franchise: The current 5 teams have 3 good teams with 2 also rans. The problem with those also rans is that while they roll over and play dead for all the overseas teams, when they play their local counterparts they act as if they actually aren’t as kuk as they appear to be and make life quite hard for their local opponents, in many cases denying them bonus points and sometimes even sneaking a win.
With the Kings there it’ll be a guaranteed 10 points (2 x 5) so the top 3 teams will end up higher on the combined log.
Only some of the overseas teams will get that privilege (of taking a bonus point win), and only once, not twice like we do.
So all in all, win-win really.
Unless you are a Cheetah or a Lion.
In which case it’s, well, lose-win. Or win-lose, depending
6 Mar 2012, 17:30 pm
The cheetahs wont do too badly. I suspect theyll win 2 from 4 on their tour.
6 Mar 2012, 19:05 pm
@puff(puff)-7:
Let’s reestablish the Cats and send either Jantjies or Goosen to the Stormers.
Or maybe not, since we all know what the Stormers do to talented nr10s
7 Mar 2012, 01:53 am
From what Ive seen of the Cheetahs they are mediocre at best. I got up at 3.30am to watch them take on the Bulls in what Ive been told is one of those intense take no prisoners SA derbies but alas was mightily disappointed. Where was the heart, especially when the future of the franchise is on the line.
I’ve heard this talk about the great depth SA Rugby has and the Cheetahs prove it,they are right at the bottom of the barrel.
7 Mar 2012, 02:08 am
These saffa tough derbies are figment of many saffas imagination. The cheetahs and lions were easy 5point fodder for their conference. Yes the Brumbies and tahs lost to them but they were riddled with injuries….tahs fielding a complete second team. A very different side to what the tahs fielded against the reds……injuries happen yes but the cheetahs season was a fluke last year.
7 Mar 2012, 03:10 am
@wallabie.(wallabie.)-35:
Yep… running ‘into each other’ all game rather than ‘around each other’ is their folly in their Derby games!
As for love lost and provincialism… anyone who hasn’t noticed how a Vic/NSW game or a QLD/NSW game is fast becoming as venomous as State of Origin… is not watching…
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