Stormers won’t end trophy drought
26 Mar 2012
MARK KEOHANE, in his weekly Business Day column, says the Stormers don’t have what it takes to win this year’s Super Rugby tournament.
The Stormers may be the only unbeaten team in Super Rugby but they are looking no better than they did in 2010 and last year, where they relied on defence to get to the play-offs but never had the attacking game to win the tournament.
Defensively the Stormers were again colossal in defying the Lions, but the lack of attacking edge is looking all too familiar for a side whose players draw too much inspiration from making a tackle and not enough from making a break.
Springbok wing Bryan Habana is again turning half chances into points and the set piece is as strong as the team’s defensive desire, but there needs to be greater emphasis on attack if the Stormers are to challenge seriously for their first championship win.
The Bulls are the most complete and balanced of the South African contenders and their ruthlessness is unmatched in this year’s tournament. Twice in five weeks they’ve created the opportunity to demolish the opposition and they’ve been uncompromising in delivering the most lethal of finishes.
The Reds were never going to win in Pretoria. Injury has hurt the Queenslanders’ title defence, flyhalf and playmaker Quade Cooper is hugely missed and the players are finding the wearing of the crown decidedly tougher than the 2011 chase to attain it.
They would never have envisaged conceding 61 points and taking a 53-point beating, and for all the extenuating circumstances the scars of this defeat won’t heal easily. I’d be surprised to see them win the tournament this year. They don’t have the depth to counter the injury situation and so far they haven’t enjoyed the good fortune of last year.
I also can’t see the Stormers winning the title, which doesn’t mean they can’t suffocate the Bulls at Newlands this weekend and score a laboured once-off victory. Home-ground comforts remain an advantage in this tournament, but so do bonus points for scoring four-try wins.
The Stormers will always be tough to beat because their mindset is that of a team that plays not to lose, instead of playing to win. But the manner of victory should no longer be in duping their supporters into believing that the style of play is capable of delivering silverware. It isn’t.
The Bulls are playing with expression and belief, and incumbent Bok flyhalf Morné Steyn has profited from the bulldozing dominance of his team-mates in contact and at the set piece.
Steyn is showing that he can control a game with more than his boot, but the criticism that he has limitations when there is no forward momentum remains as valid as it was a year ago.
He is playing with greater enjoyment than he did a year ago and if his form holds until June, he will start for the Boks against England, with Pat Lambie, Johan Goosen and Elton Jantjies providing options. It has been a long time since the country’s stocks at flyhalf have been this high.
Goosen continues to scamper up the ladder in his first season in Super Rugby, although his decision to end the game against the Crusaders with a kick to touch was a contradiction of his talent. He offers too much as a player to adopt such a defeatist and conservative mindset and hopefully his team-mates gave him a blast at the final whistle.
The Cheetahs, the people’s favourites in New Zealand as much as they are in SA, are still too content with coming second. The same is true of the Lions, who lost again at home.
How long can a team be young? How long can players be commended for their character in a losing cause? How many more Super Rugby excuses for SA’s domestic champions?
Every team suffers injury. Every team battles hardship in this tournament, but there comes a time when a team must be judged on how many games — and not friends — they win.
And that time has surely come for the Lions.
They have the game and the players to defeat the Crusaders in Johannesburg this weekend, just as the Stormers have the mentality to beat the Bulls.
Both results are possible but I am not as convinced of the possibility that the Stormers or the Lions can be potential championship winners.
To convince me that it can be any other way, the Stormers have to change the way they win games and the Lions have to start winning some games. Ditto the Cheetahs and Sharks.
As for the Bulls … don’t change a thing.
355 Comments
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26 Mar 2012, 10:05 am
Just as I track it down, it gets posted here on Keo.
Anyway, nice article.
Can’t say I disagree.
26 Mar 2012, 10:06 am
Bulls are going to silence Newlands by half time. Plenty of parking spots available by the time the final whistle goes.
26 Mar 2012, 10:10 am
@>^..^< katman(katman)-2:
You reckon this Bulls team is the real deal? They still seem a bit inconsistent to me. That’s excusable, given the load of youngsters in the team, but it does make predictions a bit more difficult.
That said, I can’t help but notice that your Superbru advice on Thursday proved to be very wise, once again.
26 Mar 2012, 10:13 am
Maybe the lottery of Rugby results that have been the norm rather than the exception will work in our favour for a change. Strangely enough, I don’t agree with Keohane though. I need to see the Stormers pack against the Bulls this weekend to make up my mind because I think they have something special going on there at the moment (with only Koster not bad but not living up to the form of the rest) – giving them a stable and very forceful platform that they haven’t had for quite a few seasons – and if they continue in that vein, I think it is quite probable that the backline will then get the confidence to start expressing themselves
26 Mar 2012, 10:16 am
@grunk(grunk)-4:
The backline is limited by the 9-10 combo.
There are at least 3 scumhalves better than Duvenage in SA at the moment (4 if you include the exciting young Piet van Zyl) and about 5 flyhalves better than Grant.
I agree that the Stormers pack is probably the best its been in 10 years. And their outside backs are not too shabby either.
But that 9-10 combo just has average written all over it.
26 Mar 2012, 10:16 am
@grunk(grunk)-4: When?/ When will this backline “express” themselves?/
they need to score F@cking tries and not express themselves!! I believe the stormers have rid the tag of light five and not having grunt upfront for some time now.. teams surely do not take them lightly… but the backs have become more stagnant in attacks than ever before… I choose a cavalier backline scoring great tries above these “ugly” wins taking the team to no silverware..
26 Mar 2012, 10:16 am
@Tacitus(Deucalion)-3: I think they’re the strongest SA challenge this year by some margin. How they do on the road will determine their season though. No real weaknesses in their squad. Great tight 5, nice balance in the loosies (I like the look of this Stander bloke), two fantastic options at scrumhalf, solid kicker and a backline that seems to know when to spread it wide. He may have his detractors (and I’ve been one of them) but Wynand Olivier is showing great form and could prove to be very good alongside Johan Sadie. If I were a betting man, I’d back them for the title.
26 Mar 2012, 10:18 am
O BTW…nice article Tac.. I mean Keo.
26 Mar 2012, 10:23 am
@>^..^< katman(katman)-7: I think you are a bit premature with your praise for the bulls… they have only beaten one team away from home like you said… away from home will decide their tournament.. But do not eat this media hype of how they now suddenly are champs again.. lest see them play more teams like the blues (Who by the way are bottom of the logg and has beaten them) Teams like the Crusaders, Highlanders, Sharks in the tank etc.
I do think they are playing good ruggas though… and they did what had to be done to teams that were not at full strength…. unlike the stormers that should have taken that first 20 minutes and kept playing like that…
the bulls beat a depleted reds at loftus and beat the Big “R” in Bloem… not enough to call them champs in my opinion..
26 Mar 2012, 10:23 am
@>^..^< katman(katman)-7:
I retain the view that you need 11 wins to get a home semi.
That means the Bulls need 8 more. If they lose 2 on tour, that means they can lose 1 of their next two games in SA (Stormers and Crusaders), and 1 more after they’re back.
Tough ask, but getting a home semi should be difficult.
The Stormers just need 7 more wins. But the home semi is of course mutually exclusive for the SA teams, so for one to go through, the others need to slip up.
Interesting road ahead.
26 Mar 2012, 10:32 am
I thoroughly enjoyed the style employed by the Bulls on Saturday, forwards and backs. Some of the backline moves had Pieter Rossouw written all over them and reminded me of this playing days when Alan Solomon was his main coach. Contra others, I was unimpressed with Jacques Potgieter who struck me as a brain-dead player that needs a good kicking onto the right track.
I felt the Stormers pack was good until early into the second half when they started to tire and the Lions forwards displayed good technique. Duvenhage’s decision making was uncharacteristically terrible and there was no innovation in the play of Duvenhage, Grant and JdV. JdJ, Aplon, Hurdles and Joe tried their best, on the rare occassions they saw a ball (which was never in any kind of space). The backline was static and there were no players running proper angles and onto the ball at pace. There is a question mark over the Stormers backline coaching; well, is it that Fleck cannot step up (then again the backline was playing with more flair in the Currie Cup) or is it that he can only do so much within the gameplan and tactics decided on by AC. The game plan will win more matches than it loses, but it needs tweaking…
The Bulls have to be favourites for the coming weekend. Then again, who can predict the outcome of derbies sometimes.
26 Mar 2012, 10:35 am
Jacques Potgieter is establishing himself as one of the new “hardmen” in SA rugby, the boy is fearless – @ times a bit hot under the collar also
.
The time has come for someone to step into the huge empty boots Juan Smith has left. We have alot of pretenders to the crown – but as yet, their game “savvy” still lacks.
26 Mar 2012, 10:40 am
@Pot Blou Gevaar(Pot Blou Gevaar)-12: You must have that Maak die bulle almal bokke song on repeat on your walkman (Do not think you know what a I pod is)
And you probably believe Cj stander, werner Kruger. Both Potgieters and everything blue must be a bok….
26 Mar 2012, 10:42 am
@Tacitus
If only you hadn’t stolen JJ. (Keohane also thinks a bit too highly of Habana’s 2nd Coming). Re your comments on our half-backs, Duvenage has always been more than adequate without being brilliant and Grant is only in No 5 flyhalf spot because of the superb talent we have now (at last) in that position. Neither of them can be classified though as weakspots. In fact they both have the ability to read the tempo of a game and play to it. De Jongh however is not carrying through his form thus far of last year.
26 Mar 2012, 10:42 am
@Pot Blou Gevaar(Pot Blou Gevaar)-12: The one infringement in front of the ref was that of a brain dead moron.
26 Mar 2012, 10:43 am
Yoh
This is like that round where we just managed to beat the Sharks and the Bulls destroyed the Cheetahs.
We all know what happened the week thereafter.
The Bulls got whipped by a B-Grade Blues outfit, the same ones the Stormers took care of with relative ease the following weekend.
We await the arrival of these flat track bully chest beating Bulls at Newlands.
26 Mar 2012, 10:44 am
@grunk(grunk)-14: Grant is steady. He is a very reliable player and brings balance. However, he reminds – in tennis terms – of being the No 1 guy in the second team whereas WP & the Stormers need to be moulding their new 1st team player.
26 Mar 2012, 10:45 am
To think the stormers rejected Hougie,JJ, sadie and J Potgieter…..
26 Mar 2012, 10:45 am
@grunk(grunk)-14: JdJ isn’t receiving the ball in any kind of space. It’s being killed by JdV.
26 Mar 2012, 10:46 am
Keo has it right, but he also has it wrong as far as the Stormers are concerned.
Yes the lack on Bonus points will come back to haunt them.
Yes the lack of attacking play may cost them a chance at a home semi.
But where Keo is wrong is in the why the Stormers will struggle to win the competition.
And now I will tell you why: (listening?)
Firstly it’s a long competition as we all keep saying.
Secondly the teams that get a home semi (and a home final) will have a massive advantage, something that the Stormers will struggle to get without any bonus points. Everyone, including Keo, knows this.
But most importantly it’s the way they play that makes it hard to win the competition, not in the lack of attacking play as Keo says, but the way that they seem to prefer to play without the ball rather than with it.
Their defensively focussed game means that they will have to make many more tackles that their opposing team, even when they win. Often especially when they win. Expending much more energy defending for the majority of the game. Putting their bodies on the line for the full 80 minutes because they never have a good enough lead to coast at all.
You cannot play that way the whole season and be fresh enough come play-off time to actually compete as well in the play-off games (at least 2, possibly 3 games, most away) as they did in the first half of the season. The players are either crocked, overplayed or just plain finished.
Yes, better player management (something that AC has been very bad at) will help, and better depth in the high impact positions (that we undoubtedly have this year compared to the previous years), particularly the forwards will help too, but you cannot deny that expending twice as much energy each game than your opponents will mean that you will not have enough left in the tank come play-offs.
26 Mar 2012, 10:47 am
Potgieter did nothing special! Just played with a dominant Bulls team and ended up looking good!
26 Mar 2012, 10:47 am
@Getafix(phil72)-18: No, Sadie demanded far too much money and a guarantee of a starting spot, neither of which was justified. His form at the Bulls is nothing to write home about.
Out of the players you mention, JJ is promising and will grow into an excellent player. Potgieter is brain dead. Hougie is marvellous.
26 Mar 2012, 10:49 am
@Pot Blou Gevaar(Pot Blou Gevaar)-12: he is still very far from competing in the international arena though…still imature and goes walk-about late in the game.
26 Mar 2012, 10:49 am
@Michael(mikeybrass)-15:
True, Potgieter is a hot head.
Needs to calm down.
In any case, Stander and Botha are the really exciting prospects, in my view.
26 Mar 2012, 10:49 am
@Provvas(Provvas)-13:
.
On the contrary guy – I think most of us knows that a fully fit Burger still had the inside lane @ 7, I for one agree with that general assesment.
Next in line, Willem Alberts.
Jacques Potgieter – well some of the silly stuff is probably a slingshot back to rugby’s amateur days. But he has oodles of grunt. When guys like that is around – well maybe Brad Thorn would not be busy tossing Barney around like a rag doll. You need enforcers, perfectly exceptable in rugby circles.
That I can promise you,
26 Mar 2012, 10:50 am
I am getting tired of watching the Stormers scrape by with half chance tries. Show us at least one innovative set piece move pleeeeease. When Fleck first stepped in we saw moves off the back of scrums that cut defenses to bits. He also got the back line to stand deeper and give themselves space to work running angles. Once opposition teams worked this out it was always going to be down to the inside backs to work the options and vary their play accordingly. This has not materialised and AC’s plan seems to have been to use Schalk as first receiver for ruck ball!?! I do not see any silverware in the pipeline for the Stormers by playing these halfbacks, particularly “popgun punt, have a go” Grant.
26 Mar 2012, 10:51 am
In the long, unfortunately the Stormers will get nowhere with Duvenhage at 9. Just kicks too much ball away. The Jake White style influence on Alistair Coetzee is looming large. Our backline is dull as dishwater.
26 Mar 2012, 10:51 am
@wpstormerbok(wpstormerbok)-16:
Another valid comment. Until the Bulls can deliver a measure of consistency by stringing together impressive victories for a few consecutive weeks, it remains too early to view them as the real deal.
However, as I said at the start of the tournamen, the Bulls team that finishes this competition will be far better than the one that started it. They will learn through some tough losses, but the growth path is clear.
26 Mar 2012, 10:52 am
@Tacitus(Deucalion)-24: Agreed.
Stander isn’t a true fetcher. I suspect he is better suited to be a No 7 in the longer term.
26 Mar 2012, 10:55 am
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-20:
I just think we go to sleep once we’ve established a lead.
We take control of games pretty early (vs Canes, Blues & Lions) then relax after 60 minutes but usually end up waking up before the other team gets too close.
So don’t agree we defend too much, we defend too early im my opinion.
26 Mar 2012, 10:55 am
@Transformation(Transformation)-23:
.
Fully agree Trans – the boy is by no means International standard as yet. You have to admit though that he is very much the kind of player that would not take a step backwards.
Similar to what Elstadt anounced last year that he does not give a toss about Bakkies’ reputation.
We sometimes watch rugby for the confrontational element as well,
26 Mar 2012, 10:56 am
@Pot Blou Gevaar(Pot Blou Gevaar)-25: Pottie has ability but not the brains. He needs to calm down. His brawn isn’t going to win him many battles when he comes up similar strong and well conditioned players. He needs to learn to use his head.
26 Mar 2012, 10:57 am
@Michael(mikeybrass)-29:
He was just filling out at no.6 due to Stegman’s absence.
In truth, he’s hardly ever played 6 before. So he did exceptionally well under the circumstances. Against the Blues he was only pulled in on the Friday before the game.
This week he had time to train in that position and did very well for someone who is actually a 7.
26 Mar 2012, 10:59 am
@Michael(mikeybrass)-22:
Pottie is one of the reasons why the bulls have been controlling the collision point… and that is where you win ore loose rugby matches!
26 Mar 2012, 11:01 am
@Tacitus(Deucalion)-28:
Same applies to the Stormers.
Our attack is letting us down by the fact that we can’t sustain it.
We score early tries, and then nothing.
But hopefully that will be sorted out come the biz end of the tournament.
26 Mar 2012, 11:02 am
@wpstormerbok(wpstormerbok)-30: Maybe.
If that were true then it would be easier to correct than the stiuation I laid out.
26 Mar 2012, 11:03 am
nope, if province pitch up with the right attitude, they have the beating of the bulls and then some. elstadt should def be selected for this fixture, koster to come on in last 20.
26 Mar 2012, 11:04 am
@Getafix(phil72)-18: the same stormers didn’t see quality in willie le roux when he played for boland and scored 16 tries in the currie cup First Div and was nominated for Player of the Year
26 Mar 2012, 11:04 am
If we were to be honest about a Stormers vs Bulls match-up it would go something like this:
Front row: Not an awful lot to choose between them. Let’s call it even.
Second row: Much has been written about the towering Stormers duo, but Juandre and Flip haven’t lost a battle to date. I’d call this one even too.
Back row: Both have quality and depth here. The Bulls’ weak spot is the crash ball specialist, Potgieter, while the Stormers would want more from Koster. Kolisi and Vermeulen pretty much cancel out Stander and Spies. Another even score.
Half backs: Bulls by some distance, including the bench options. Duvenhage and Grant simply don’t compete in the same league as Hougaard and Steyn.
Midfield: Another very close call. On paper you’d have to fancy the Stormers, but in the real world the less fashionable Olivier and Sadie look the business. I’m calling it even.
Outside backs: Great talent on both sides. Basson is scoring tries, and Ndungane and Kirchner are in good nick. For the Stormers, Habana is returning to form and Pietersen and Aplon hardly ever have a poor game. Even again.
Bench: The only two squads in SA with real depth across all positions. Nothing to choose here.
In conclusion, these teams are very evenly matched, except for the halfback combinations. And this is where the game will be won or lost.
Bulls by 10.
26 Mar 2012, 11:07 am
@>^..^< katman(katman)-39:
After all that how did you end up with…
Bulls by 10
26 Mar 2012, 11:09 am
@wpstormerbok(wpstormerbok)-40: It’s all there in the last paragraph.
Now pipe down before I change it to “Bulls by 15”.
26 Mar 2012, 11:11 am
@cab(cab)-37:
Koster is pap in die broek, been saying it for a while now.
Carr has to start, or just anybody with more meat and heart.
26 Mar 2012, 11:13 am
My thoughts exactly. Good article.
Have been supporting these chumps since 1997. I’ve had it wif their losing ways.And they going to lose again this year – mark my words. Proud bull now. Going to buy my supporters jersey at mr price sport today. Today I tell u
A massacre awaits newlands. Eks ‘n verraier ja – is nuks…
26 Mar 2012, 11:14 am
@>^..^< katman(katman)-41:
Pipe down, is that what the Lions did Saturday eve?
26 Mar 2012, 11:14 am
Bulls loosie combnation of Spies, Pottie and Stegman…. very balanced
26 Mar 2012, 11:15 am
@wpstormerbok(wpstormerbok)-42: I agree with you on Koster. He’s a good player to bring off the bench IMO.
I can’t wait for Schalk to come back. Schalk at 7 with Vermeulen at 8.
Siya at 6.
Good balance.
26 Mar 2012, 11:16 am
@Tacitus(Deucalion)-33: So he is a No 7. I think he is a better player than Potgieter.
@Getafix(phil72)-34: No, it is because Spies is getting stuck into doing the dirty work. Potgieter is the weak link in the loose trio. The Bulls would be wise to use Stander at 7 when Stegg returns.
26 Mar 2012, 11:16 am
@Pot Blou Gevaar(Pot Blou Gevaar)-31: trust me i know all about potgieter as i’ve watched him for 2 seasons at the Kings, he was one of my favorite players while with them but the MOST frustrating as he is prone to brainfarts at the most crucial of times!
if the bulls can iron out those kinks early then he will have a good future. in terms of commitment and throwig one’s body into everything, he is as mal as a young schalk burger…no regard for his own body
26 Mar 2012, 11:18 am
@>^..^< katman(katman)-39: I think I’d shade the locks and front rows in favour of the Stormers.
We stole a bunch of your lineout ball this weekend.
Our weakness is our bench I think, but also the timing of the subs. AC is getting that wrong.
Also when you bring on a player like Ntubeni in a critical position like hooker and he cannot throw the ball in straight you are weakening the team, certainly not strengthening it,
This is not a new problem for Scarra. At least Deon Fourie gets half of them in straight.
26 Mar 2012, 11:20 am
@Transformation(Transformation)-38: Willie le Roux has been awesome. I hope he keeps it up and ends up in Bok contention.
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