Stormers vs Bulls: Tale of the tape
30 Mar 2012
Keo.co.za does a statistical preview of the great South African derby and inspects trends relevant to both sides courtesy of ruckingoodstats.com.
Time, Possession and Territory
Both the Bulls and the Stormers like to control the pace of the game by slowing it down. The ball-in-play time in the tournament averages 40.9%, but the Bulls are down at 36.1% (lowest in tournament) while the Stormers stand at 38.3%. However, they are both among the tournament’s leaders in time spent in the opposition’s 22m – the Bulls top the pile with 21.2% of the game spent inside the opposition’s 22 while the Stormers are 3rd highest with 16.1%. How clinical they are when they get there will be decisive to the outcome.
Points
The Bulls are averaging the most tries per game with 4.3. They are opting to kick for goal when awarded a penalty 40% of the time, compared the Stormers who opt for this 56.3% of the time, second highest in the competition. Interestingly, the Bulls attack down the right side of the field the majority of the time and this is where their tries and penalties are coming from. This is also statistically the side the Stormers are more likely to conceded tries and penalties.
Attack
The Bulls are breaking on average 1 in every 5.8 tackle attempts – the best in the comp – compared to the Stormers’ 1 in 6.8 tackle attempts. The marked difference between the sides, and central to their differing try-scoring tallies, is the number of clean line breaks these teams make. The Bulls lead the tournament with an average of 4.0 per game compared to the Stormers’ 0.5 average per game – the lowest in the tournament. Certainly the Bulls will find the Stormers to be their toughest test from a defensive perspective but they will be confident of crafting more chances than their great rivals. However, this is likely to a match where tactical kicking is prominent. The Bulls are making one every 36 seconds and the Stormers every 31 seconds. The Stormers have the shortest average time between kicks. The flyhalves will play a pivotal role in orchestrating the attacks. The Bulls’ 10s have kicked 35.3% (3rd highest) of the time, run 7.1% (14th) and passed 57.6% (13th). The Stormers’ flyhalves will opt to kick 11.8% of the time (14), run 12% (4th highest) and pass 74.3% (3rd highest). Note, the Stormers have primarily used their fullback and scrumhalf to kick tactically.
Defence
The Bulls will have to be powerful, patient and innovative if they hope to consistently unlock the tournament’s best defence. The Stormers average a missed tackle 1 in every 11 attempts, compared to the Bulls’ 1 in every 6.3 attempts (10th in the comp). Only one team has a better tackle accuracy in their own 22m than these sides. The Bulls are superior at the breakdown, pilfering the ball on 7.6% of the opposition’s rucks (second highest in the tournament). The Stormers, with Francois Louw, used to pride themselves on their potency in this area. However, they have only managed to turn over possession on 2.7% of the opposition’s rucks this season (13th). The team who bosses the gainline will gain the ascendancy at the breakdown and in so doing exponentially improve their defensive task.
Errors
The Bulls have conceded the highest number of penalties on average in the tournament – one every 2 minutes and 30 seconds – while the Stormers concede a penalty every 3 minutes and 42 seconds. The majority of the Bulls’ infringements come when they are in possession and they also lead in conceding penalties at the scrum (highest in tournament) and the lineout. With the Stormers’ struggles to score tries well noted, the Bulls will ease their task by remedying this ill-discipline and not offering their hosts a chance to build their score through penalties.
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116 Comments
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30 Mar 2012, 12:06 pm
@JockBok(JockBok)-99:
it’s a brave move for sure.
somebody in the marketing department is going to get his balls slammed in a desk drawer.
I think it’s the stormers fans who are most excited about it.
Not sure why.
30 Mar 2012, 12:10 pm
@Atreides(Atreides)-98:
hehehe…
everyone get’s something right occasionally…
30 Mar 2012, 12:15 pm
@Atreides(Atreides)-98:
Deseprate time call for desperate measures.
Next thing they will be going caravaning together.
toasting each other with bottles of Appletiser.
30 Mar 2012, 12:35 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-97:
@JockBok(JockBok)-99:
still not as bad as the blitzbokkies onnerbroekies in my opinion.
@JockBok(JockBok)-100:
ag whatever !
30 Mar 2012, 12:48 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-103:
Surely 25 year old pinotage.
30 Mar 2012, 12:48 pm
@whitney houston, we have a problem…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-104: That was most forgettable too.
30 Mar 2012, 12:52 pm
@JockBok(JockBok)-105: Don’t joke!! A relative i don’t get on with was given a few cases of wine as a ‘present’ by someone emigrating….now he hauls out 25-year-old bottles of red at every social occasion and can’t understand why no-one will touch the stuff.
30 Mar 2012, 13:02 pm
@JockBok(JockBok)-105:
only with sushi
30 Mar 2012, 14:08 pm
Bulls fans – please no chucking of bottles at Jean’s head if you lose tomorrow.
30 Mar 2012, 14:15 pm
The site of ruckingoodstats is fantastic for a stats geek like me!…one problem…how do I subscribe to the site…can anybody help?
30 Mar 2012, 15:17 pm
@JockBok(JockBok)-94:
lol, i just cant see them bringing off pink ekse.
@houston, we have a problem…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-96:
ja, miskien bakkies se groot lief, u think the bulls going to win without bakkies there?
@>^..^< katman(katman)-97:
yeah i remember going to watch a stade francaise game and saw peter de villiers pracing around in luminous pink, just did not look right.
30 Mar 2012, 15:18 pm
@cab(cab)-111:
katman, i am of course talking about the prop, not the Greatest who wore a skitterende pink tie with aplume..
30 Mar 2012, 15:29 pm
The Bulls girly attire is appropriate as tomorrow they’re gonna get knocked the f*ck out! All the supporters of other unions are all backing the Bulls I see lol. More out of hope that the Stormers lose. Ons sal sien!
30 Mar 2012, 16:00 pm
Who gives a **** about the pink shirts? I reckon this reaction is exactly what the Bulls marketing team was gunning for…Anyhow, for me it makes no difference; there will be blood on the bulls’ shirts after tomorrow’s match may it be pink or blue
30 Mar 2012, 17:25 pm
Some interesting data, no idea what its validity though?
“they (the Stormers) have only managed to turn over possession on 2.7% of the opposition’s rucks this season (13th) ”
Last season they competed quite well at the break down, what has happened to change it
Answer: The Stormers lost F. Louw and SB(for now) but boasted a dubious gain in Kolisi
Makes a good sense
30 Mar 2012, 18:40 pm
@Hondo(Hondo)-115: Kolisi is and never was going to be a fetcher. He’s a ball What’s your point Einstien?
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