Preview – Boks vs England (2nd Test)

Preview – Boks vs England (2nd Test)

15 Jun 2012

JON CARDINELLI analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner of the Ellis Park clash.

England blew their best chance of a win in Durban and it could be that the next two matches are more about damage control than anything else.

Can this England side really claw their way back into contention, can they win at altitude when they couldn’t win at the coast?

In 2009, the British & Irish Lions lost the first Test in Durban and while they came close to winning the second fixture in Pretoria, the Boks were ultimately too good. If the four home unions combined weren’t good enough to topple the Boks, how can England, and an inexperienced England at that, be expected to upset the South Africans at altitude?

These are the questions the English will be asking themselves, and I’m sure that there won’t be too many who truly feel they can succeed where so many of their countrymen have failed.

English optimists will argue that the Bok class of 2009 was one of the finest teams in history, and the current side is not as imposing or settled. It is true in the sense that the Boks recently blooded four new players, and that the second-row, loose-trio and midfield combinations are not established.

But there is still a lot of class and experience in this Bok side, and more than a few have not only beaten England in South Africa, but at Twickenham as well.

They know what it takes to beat England, as does the new coach Heyneke Meyer. His tactics have been spot on thus far, and the Bok game plan should prove effective this weekend.

Both the English and the South Africans have spoken at length about the gainline battle. The game was won by the Boks last week, but the honours were shared at the collisions in the sense that England won the first half and South Africa the second.

The Boks will be aiming for a more clinical showing at the breakdown, and an emphasis on ball security should provide their carriers in the subsequent phases, as well as their halfbacks, with more room to operate.

The Boks shouldn’t lose to this England side, but a complacent attitude will bring the tourists into the match. England have some impressive forwards capable of stifling or in some instances stealing the ball at the breakdown.

Accuracy has been the watchword in the Bok camp this week, and all forms of discipline will be paramount in Saturday’s match. The Boks need to clear the English away from the ruck in order to provide halfbacks Francois Hougaard and Morné Steyn with the necessary time to make measured decisions, be it to kick for territory or bring South Africa’s strapping centres into the game.

Stuart Lancaster has been forced to reshuffle his backline. The English will miss Brad Barritt at No 12, as he’s not only a solid defender in the tackling sense, but also a very competitive and effective player at the breakdown.

Manu Tuilagi has been shifted to No 12 in Barritt’s absence, and while it’s a move that could prove successful, the impact of Tuilagi will depend on the performance of the English pack. If Tuilagi doesn’t receive front-foot ball, he will struggle to make good gains against the robust and savvy midfield pair of Frans Steyn and Jean de Villiers. The South Africans may not have enjoyed a great deal of time together as a combination, but individually they boast a lot of experience.

It could be that Morné Steyn is identified as the soft underbelly of this otherwise defensively solid Bok backline. Having said that, if the English forwards don’t fire and Tuilagi doesn’t receive a platform, the rampage down the No 10 channel will be easier to manage.

The selection of Tuilagi and Jonathan Joseph as a midfield combination has been criticised, and it could be that the whole 10-12-13 line-up is exposed. The Bok forwards should be more accurate and there should be more opportunities to run at the England defence. Toby Flood isn’t the world’s best defender in the No 10 channel, and Joseph is playing at 13, the most difficult defensive position in the backline. No doubt the Boks will be looking to exploit Flood’s weakness and Joseph’s inexperience.

That’s not to say the Boks will be running every ball at the midfield. The Bok pack would do well to protect Hougaard at the ruck base, and there will be a different sort of pressure on the Bok No 9 this week, that is the pressure to produce a high standard of box kicks and tactical probes.

Morné Steyn has a big role to play in this regard, and will also look to improve on his mediocre goal-kicking performance in Durban. The Boks have other strong tactical kicking options in Frans Steyn and Pat Lambie, and expect all of these players to contribute as the South Africans strive for territorial ascendancy.

When this plan comes together it can be devastating, and if the Boks can be more clinical in accumulating points in the first half, there could be a more expansive display in the second.

Establishing a commanding half-time lead will force England to chase the game in the second stanza (they need to win to keep the series alive). A looser, more ambitious approach by England could backfire and provide more scoring opportunities for the Boks. It’s for this reason that the hosts may end up winning by a big margin.

JC’S CALL: Boks by 15

Springboks – 15 Pat Lambie, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Juandré Kruger, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Werner Kruger, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Keegan Daniel, 20 Ruan Pienaar, 21 Wynand Olivier, 22 Bjorn Basson.

England – 15 Ben Foden, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Manu Tuilagi, 11 David Strettle, 10 Toby Flood, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Ben Morgan, 7 Chris Robshaw (c), 6 Tom Johnson, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 Mouritz Botha, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley, 1 Joe Marler.
Subs: 16 Lee Mears, 17 Alex Corbisiero, 18 Tom Palmer, 19 Thomas Wadrom, 20 Lee Dickson, 21 Owen Farrell, 22 Alex Goode.


534 Comments

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  • 501.sharks_lover: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:25 am

    I dont think anyone in here hates the Stormers Jeralday, infact they respect the stormers, Some Stormer supporters in here?? now that may very well be a different story :wink:

  • 502.Sharks fans are genuine Bok supporters.: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:27 am

    Prawn you told everyone where you work you old hag, and some other blogger on here told everyone your surname. As easy as that…dow!!!

  • 503.bos_otter: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:30 am

    Morning chaps….you guys think Pee Wee and HG got a room this morning? :)

  • 504.Dawn: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:32 am

    I rest my case.

  • 505.Pee Wee: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:33 am

    Ferny looks like a no show – leaving in 20min Fernly. Here boy, here boy………………………………………….*****! :)

  • 506.sharks_lover: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:34 am

    KIwi ans Ireland about to kick off

    Should be a cracker

  • 507.Sharks fans are genuine Bok supporters.: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:34 am

    Dammit. I love challenges. Anyone wanna bliksem me?

  • 508.Sharks fans are genuine Bok supporters.: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:36 am

    @Dawn(Dawn)-504:

    Awwwww. Racist scum. You are no lady…not by a loooooong shot Prawn.

    Go off and drown your sorrows in a glass of meths now….

  • 509.bos_otter: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:36 am

    Wee Pee & HG…Can’t you guys just settle it over a pint?
    ..or meet at the Wimpy for a nice breckie! :)

  • 510.Sharks fans are genuine Bok supporters.: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:37 am

    Off to watch the ruggers. Anyone wanting to bliksem me can BBM me on 21F86574.

  • 511.Sharks fans are genuine Bok supporters.: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:38 am

    @bos_otter(bos_otter)-509:

    Apparently it’s Fern and WP.

  • 512.bos_otter: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:39 am

    @Sharks fans are genuine Bok supporters.(Predawn)-511: ohhh….my bad …sorry :)

  • 513.bos_otter: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:41 am

    NZ hard on attack….another big pak slae in store for the Irish today?

  • 514.Dawn: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:41 am

    Get over it predawn

    It doesn’t bother me anymore

  • 515.Pee Wee: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:42 am

    509 @ bos_otter

    I said if he chickens out we could have a gym face off lol. After all his bravado he’s been shown up for the pw00sy he really is. Asks my email addy which i gave to him but he hasnt even replied. Cut of the same cloth as HG. Scared little Sharkies. :)

    Leaving here now. Chicken sheet. Looooooooooooooooseeeeeeeeeeer!!!!!! :)

  • 516.Dawn: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:43 am

    The more you repeat those insults the more you reveal the cesspit that is your mind.

  • 517.bos_otter: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:43 am

    @Sharks fans are genuine Bok supporters.(Predawn)-510: sure it’s a stupid question, but what is the BBM 21F86574 for?

  • 518.bos_otter: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:44 am

    wow….Ireland comming back strong..

  • 519.Pee Wee: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:45 am

    517 @ bos_otter

    He doesnt want to watch the rugga all by himself the lonely sod.

  • 520.bos_otter: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:46 am

    cheating AB’s…would rather give a penalty away than risk Ireland scoring a try….good for Ireland going for touch

  • 521.bos_otter: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:47 am

    Ireland scored!!!

  • 522.bos_otter: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:48 am

    @Pee Wee(Pee Wee)-519: Still don’t know what those numbers are for though….I’m a techno idiot…all these fancy gadgets you get nowadays just makes my head spin.

  • 523.bos_otter: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:49 am

    Ireland 7/0 ….well well….what a nice try

  • 524.Nautigal: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:50 am

    Greetings from Sunny Thailand. I am working on my score predictions. Can any kind soul please tell me the expected weather conditions and who the match officials are? Thanks in advance

  • 525.bos_otter: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:52 am

    @Nautigal(Nautigal)-524: lol….like your nickname :) …you naughty you!. Can’t help with the weather…I’m stuck in rainy UK

  • 526.Dawn: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:52 am

    I wonder why he’s putting his bb pin on a public blog.

  • 527.sharks_lover: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:56 am

    @Nautigal(Nautigal)-524:

    Suid-Afrika
    Patrick Lambie (12), JP Pietersen (43), Jean de Villiers (k, 73), Frans Steyn (48), Bryan Habana (75), Morné Steyn (35), Francois Hougaard (16), Pierre Spies (48), Willem Alberts (10), Marcell Coetzee (1), Juandré Kruger (1), Eben Etzebeth (1), Jannie du Plessis (31), Bismarck du Plessis (43), Tendai Mtawarira (33).

    PLAASVERVANGERS: Adriaan Strauss (10), Werner Kruger (2), Flip van der Merwe (12), Keegan Daniel (2), Ruan Pienaar (52), Wynand Olivier (35), Bjorn Basson (6).

    Engeland
    Ben Foden (28), Chris Ashton (24), Jonathan Joseph (1), Manu Tuilagi (11), David Strettle (11), Toby Flood (48), Ben Youngs (23), Ben Morgan (6), Chris Robshaw (k, 7), Tom Johnson (1), Geoff Parling (6), Mouritz Botha (7), Dan Cole (29), Dylan Hartley (40), Joe Marler (1).

    PLAASVERVANGERS: Lee Mears (40), Alex Corbisiero (15), Tom Palmer (38), Thomas Waldrom (0), Lee Dickson (6), Owen Farrell (6), Alex Goode (0).

    Afskop: 17:00.

    Skeidsregter: Alain Rolland (Ier).

    Assistent-skeidsregters: Steve Walsh (Aus) en Simon McDowell (Ier).

    TV-skeidsregter: Iain Ramage (Skot).

    Verwagte weerstoestande: Koud, geen wolkbedekking, met ’n ligte noordwestewind.

  • 528.sharks_lover: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 09:57 am

    NAutigal i copied and pasted part of an arfikaans articcle for you, just shout if you dont understand ?

  • 529.Nautigal: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 10:12 am

    Dankie Sharks lover. looks like a few 5- 50 calls might not go our way. Lets see.

  • 530.ryecatcher: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 10:20 am

    DAWN.Have a great day.Any predictions on result/score?

  • 531.Dawn: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 10:54 am

    I don’t think anyone can predict the future.

  • 532.Fern is not a stud,he is merely no19: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 11:21 am

    @ PeeWee
    I have just come back from my morning meeting with engineers and community leaders regarding the upgrade of infrastructure,I was asked to be here and cannot just leave a meeting as I please.
    I am back in CT soon again vetseun and see you are a runner
    First a 2 hr gym session and thereafter a half marathon
    I am impressed
    Will let you know well in advance when I am here again,got your email addie now.
    I would love to do a half marathon with you
    I am only good for a 1:45 now but should be good for a sub 90min when I am here gain.
    Would love to pace you vetseun.
    Cheers all,go Bokke!
    Your PK is still booked aswell.

  • 533.ryecatcher: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 12:40 pm

    DAWN 531.What an ill mannered reply.A simple Yes/No would have
    sufficed.

  • 534.bos_otter: Reply to this comment
    16 Jun 2012, 13:09 pm

    Jeez…all you oukes klink moerse tough…I will steer well clear of you all methinks! One sound stronger and tougher than the other…

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