Preview – Boks vs England (2nd Test)
15 Jun 2012
JON CARDINELLI analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner of the Ellis Park clash.
England blew their best chance of a win in Durban and it could be that the next two matches are more about damage control than anything else.
Can this England side really claw their way back into contention, can they win at altitude when they couldn’t win at the coast?
In 2009, the British & Irish Lions lost the first Test in Durban and while they came close to winning the second fixture in Pretoria, the Boks were ultimately too good. If the four home unions combined weren’t good enough to topple the Boks, how can England, and an inexperienced England at that, be expected to upset the South Africans at altitude?
These are the questions the English will be asking themselves, and I’m sure that there won’t be too many who truly feel they can succeed where so many of their countrymen have failed.
English optimists will argue that the Bok class of 2009 was one of the finest teams in history, and the current side is not as imposing or settled. It is true in the sense that the Boks recently blooded four new players, and that the second-row, loose-trio and midfield combinations are not established.
But there is still a lot of class and experience in this Bok side, and more than a few have not only beaten England in South Africa, but at Twickenham as well.
They know what it takes to beat England, as does the new coach Heyneke Meyer. His tactics have been spot on thus far, and the Bok game plan should prove effective this weekend.
Both the English and the South Africans have spoken at length about the gainline battle. The game was won by the Boks last week, but the honours were shared at the collisions in the sense that England won the first half and South Africa the second.
The Boks will be aiming for a more clinical showing at the breakdown, and an emphasis on ball security should provide their carriers in the subsequent phases, as well as their halfbacks, with more room to operate.
The Boks shouldn’t lose to this England side, but a complacent attitude will bring the tourists into the match. England have some impressive forwards capable of stifling or in some instances stealing the ball at the breakdown.
Accuracy has been the watchword in the Bok camp this week, and all forms of discipline will be paramount in Saturday’s match. The Boks need to clear the English away from the ruck in order to provide halfbacks Francois Hougaard and Morné Steyn with the necessary time to make measured decisions, be it to kick for territory or bring South Africa’s strapping centres into the game.
Stuart Lancaster has been forced to reshuffle his backline. The English will miss Brad Barritt at No 12, as he’s not only a solid defender in the tackling sense, but also a very competitive and effective player at the breakdown.
Manu Tuilagi has been shifted to No 12 in Barritt’s absence, and while it’s a move that could prove successful, the impact of Tuilagi will depend on the performance of the English pack. If Tuilagi doesn’t receive front-foot ball, he will struggle to make good gains against the robust and savvy midfield pair of Frans Steyn and Jean de Villiers. The South Africans may not have enjoyed a great deal of time together as a combination, but individually they boast a lot of experience.
It could be that Morné Steyn is identified as the soft underbelly of this otherwise defensively solid Bok backline. Having said that, if the English forwards don’t fire and Tuilagi doesn’t receive a platform, the rampage down the No 10 channel will be easier to manage.
The selection of Tuilagi and Jonathan Joseph as a midfield combination has been criticised, and it could be that the whole 10-12-13 line-up is exposed. The Bok forwards should be more accurate and there should be more opportunities to run at the England defence. Toby Flood isn’t the world’s best defender in the No 10 channel, and Joseph is playing at 13, the most difficult defensive position in the backline. No doubt the Boks will be looking to exploit Flood’s weakness and Joseph’s inexperience.
That’s not to say the Boks will be running every ball at the midfield. The Bok pack would do well to protect Hougaard at the ruck base, and there will be a different sort of pressure on the Bok No 9 this week, that is the pressure to produce a high standard of box kicks and tactical probes.
Morné Steyn has a big role to play in this regard, and will also look to improve on his mediocre goal-kicking performance in Durban. The Boks have other strong tactical kicking options in Frans Steyn and Pat Lambie, and expect all of these players to contribute as the South Africans strive for territorial ascendancy.
When this plan comes together it can be devastating, and if the Boks can be more clinical in accumulating points in the first half, there could be a more expansive display in the second.
Establishing a commanding half-time lead will force England to chase the game in the second stanza (they need to win to keep the series alive). A looser, more ambitious approach by England could backfire and provide more scoring opportunities for the Boks. It’s for this reason that the hosts may end up winning by a big margin.
JC’S CALL: Boks by 15
Springboks – 15 Pat Lambie, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Juandré Kruger, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Werner Kruger, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Keegan Daniel, 20 Ruan Pienaar, 21 Wynand Olivier, 22 Bjorn Basson.
England – 15 Ben Foden, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Manu Tuilagi, 11 David Strettle, 10 Toby Flood, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Ben Morgan, 7 Chris Robshaw (c), 6 Tom Johnson, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 Mouritz Botha, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley, 1 Joe Marler.
Subs: 16 Lee Mears, 17 Alex Corbisiero, 18 Tom Palmer, 19 Thomas Wadrom, 20 Lee Dickson, 21 Owen Farrell, 22 Alex Goode.
534 Comments
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15 Jun 2012, 11:14 am
@toulon says(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-93:
don’t sweat the small stuff dude… it’s hardly important enough to explain it to you…
it’s obviously not a pretoria thing… we get it that you guys have no interests beyond the walls of loftus that doesn’t where a blue or pink jersey…
15 Jun 2012, 11:14 am
@ufo(ufo)-84:
oh i see, sorry i thought he won the award.
so he’s just an ambassador…?.. what does that even mean?
is this like the stormers conference winners trophy..?..
15 Jun 2012, 11:14 am
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game)-55: Great comment HG…i think you are spot on about Rolland especially…a Northern Hemisphere ref who can be a little pedantic and has nailed the boks before on the ground…
15 Jun 2012, 11:15 am
@john123(john123)-97:
come on over.
meet the banshee.
15 Jun 2012, 11:16 am
or the tri-series neo africa trophy..?..
15 Jun 2012, 11:16 am
@David(David)-88: this is why Lancaster REALLY wanted wayne smith to join the English set up, the incredabrain would panelbeat this raw talent to a well oiled machine.
15 Jun 2012, 11:17 am
@Blokkies(Blokkies)-94: interesting, in the first half last week Spies made the most running metres of anyone in the team , 9 runs for 48 metres, hit 10 rucks and mauls (second best was 3) and made 6 tackles (only Alberts made more at 9)
so for someone wh doesnt like the hard stuff he sure gets through a lot.
he was the best performing forward (an player) on the field by stats.
he may not have been the most spectacular, but he is effective.
and that allows other players to look better around him. team player.
we expect him to run through defences etc and that may cause us to not see the hard work he does in the tight.
15 Jun 2012, 11:17 am
It could be interesting …. much will depend on the officious Alain Roland!
15 Jun 2012, 11:17 am
@Skeppie(Skeppie)-99: No way will be able to match SA up front for the majority of the game
We have to attack and score tries right call to bring in Joseph and play Flood at 10 amazed Danny Care isnt even on the bench!
With injuries etc and the squad we have we cant match SA fowards
15 Jun 2012, 11:18 am
@toulon says(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-102:
it’s a johan rupert thing.
#winelandsmafia
15 Jun 2012, 11:18 am
@Bok fan(Bok fan)-69:
That was the Lions.
15 Jun 2012, 11:19 am
@ufo(ufo)-101:
by the way, who won this seasons neo africa trophy?
honest question.
15 Jun 2012, 11:19 am
@john123(john123)-100: Yes, with thinner and “lighter” mass in the air.
15 Jun 2012, 11:19 am
@roobarb2(roobarb2)-107: Problem is the stats do not confirm how effective the ruck hits or tackles were. Hitting a ruck with little effect is worthless…..making a hit but allowing the runner to go past you doesn’t help.
15 Jun 2012, 11:20 am
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-110:
this site is a fountain of knowledge for me, at times.
15 Jun 2012, 11:21 am
one can always learn something new…
15 Jun 2012, 11:21 am
@john123(john123)-109: I just dont thing you guys have enough players who play a possesion based game, great forwards and possibly guys with the individual skills to play a running game but just not the experience of guys who play this type of game in the S15 week in week out. Whatever happens I must say this English side looks well coached in terms of the basics and looks up for it, Lancaster is obviously having a good effect on them
15 Jun 2012, 11:23 am
@GermanBok(Marty)-87:
I think I am on the point of changing my mind about Spies with some qualifications. He is better than people give him credit for.
- In some ways we must just accept that he is not an Alberts or Schalk. He is not going to carry the ball up as effective as they will. I don’t understand it myself but it is the way it is. But neither is this the only way a loose forward contributes.
- When he does get space he is dangerous but I conceed this is a plus rather than a base reason to select him
- He is a massive presence in the line out. Just rewatch the game. He gave us a lot of security during the period England was ******** with Kruger’s jump. I think people underestimate this quite a lot. With Daniel you lose this completely hence he is on the bench.
- I say this without statistical backup, but to me it looked like Spies hit a number of rucks and disrupted some English ball. He is a big guy after all.
- His defence has been iffy in the past but he certainly did well enough in that game.
I am not saying Vermeulen should not play ahead of him when fit but what I am saying is that a lot of people here watched Spies with preconceived notions and refuse to accept the facts of that game. Spies was an asset in the 1st Test. Maybe he is not the best 8 we could have but given our injury list he certainly is doing enough to warrant his spot. There is no uninjured 8 that would do better.
15 Jun 2012, 11:28 am
@roobarb2(roobarb2)-107:
Thanks for saying that. That was my point earlier. He might not be barging through the defences like Alberts but really, how many people do that? He does however contribute in other ways.
15 Jun 2012, 11:29 am
@toulon says(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-115:
stop gushing.
15 Jun 2012, 11:29 am
@STBUR(STBUR)-118: Agreed.
15 Jun 2012, 11:32 am
@Skeppie(Skeppie)-114:
Leaning on a ruck isn’t quite the same as hitting it, is it?
As for the oft quoted observation that Spies needs space to be effective, I’d agree except for the fact that one of the 8s jobs is to CREATE space for other players.
15 Jun 2012, 11:34 am
@STBUR(STBUR)-118: I sort of agree but its just his defence that really bothers me, he does not need to bash throught he gain line like Alberts, as you say he gives us a great lineout option and does get through a lot more work than people give him credit for but for a big man his one on one defence is not great, if he could fix that he would be a really good player.
15 Jun 2012, 11:36 am
@David(David)-122: The hitting ruck comment is exactly as per my post, in terms of creating space I suppose it depends on the combination of loosies, some 8′s are more ball players while others are big tackle busting guys without the roving quality.
15 Jun 2012, 11:39 am
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-120:
wax off….
15 Jun 2012, 11:39 am
@Skeppie(Skeppie)-117: I disagree there is alot of talent in England but they aren’t getting picked England’s approach has always been robotic but we need to change our style if we are going to win games in the SH
Can’t rely on ur forwards and a kicker need different game plans/strategies
I admire Lancaster for making those changes but he should have done it in the 1st test
15 Jun 2012, 11:39 am
roobarb2 @ 107
Sure, I do not dispute his quality as a player. I just think he would be 10 times more effective running against tired legs.
He has been critiscised for ages now – and is supposedly ‘working on becoming more involved/aggressive/hard/whatever’ but you are either born to play stampkar or you are born to play loose.
Why negate his awesome speed of the mark etc by letting him get worn down in the first 50 mins?
A loose trio of (current available players) 6.Brussouw, 7.Coetzee, 8.Alberts with Spies coming on for either one of Brussouw or Coetzee with Alberts moving to 7 after half time would pump any loose trio over the full 80 mins.
15 Jun 2012, 11:39 am
@Skeppie(Skeppie)-123: Spies- 9 tackles 1 missed. how does that bother you? Only Alberts made more tackles.
15 Jun 2012, 11:41 am
canada 2.85 to italy 0.3
fiji 4.75 to scot 0.16
arg 1.3 to france 0.67
oz 0.47 to wales 1.9
there’s money to be made here.
15 Jun 2012, 11:43 am
@Blokkies(Blokkies)-127: agreed, i’m a Bulls supporter and i have for years been grumpy about his workrate. but if i’m honest, i’m looking for him to do completely amazing things all the time and when he does the mundane dirty work then he “goes missing”
i think we sell him short sometimes, and as the pack starts gelling i think we’ll see more of the Spies of old.
i do like the idea of him coming on as an impact player though.
15 Jun 2012, 11:44 am
@john123(john123)-109:
Dude, we have injuries galore. Personally I have made a point to try and not say “but we have these injuries”. It is fine to factor it into an expected result but all teams have injuries 80% of the time.
3 of our most powerful loosies are injured. We are fielding two brand new locks due to retirements. And you have been spared the POTENTIAL unveiling of the greatest flyhalf prospect that South Africa has had in several decades. If he had played you might not only have to worry about our forwards but an unleashed backline. But that is all pie-in-sky because the reality is they are injured and we must rely on other players.
And another thing people tend to do is say X is uninjured thereby implying that X’s performance would be guaranteed to be better than Y’s (kind of like Goosen vs Steyn). In other cases the two players mentioned are much of a muchness (would Juan Smith really have done better than Alberts or Schalk vs Coetzee?). If they aren’t it means a team’s depth is lacking and that is part and parcel of having a consistently strong national team.
Not having a go at you but this whole “but x, y, z are injured” is neither here nor there. I hate it when South Africans mention it as well. If you can’t replace players will near enough the same quality it means you are not quite as strong you think you are.
15 Jun 2012, 11:44 am
@john123(john123)-126: Who do you reckon should be playing who isn’t?
15 Jun 2012, 11:46 am
@roobarb2(roobarb2)-128: How many of those 9 tackles stopped the player getting over the advantage line and killed their momentum?
15 Jun 2012, 11:48 am
@Skeppie(Skeppie)-123:
Ja, his defence is the most confusing aspect and the number one legitimate complaint. I think we all expect him (and rightly so) to tackle back an opposing player more often than not.
This is likely to be the reason why Vermeulen might pip him in the future because he does not surrender much to Spies in terms of lineout. He is a pretty decent backup to Bekker at the Stormers.
15 Jun 2012, 11:52 am
roobarb2
I am a Stormer, but for now I couldn’t care who Spies plays for. Above all I support the Bokke and only want what is best for them – no provincial bias from my side.
I am glad Spies is in the side – he is currently a very good player. I just think he could become an awesome player, the phenomenon that many people were hoping he would become.
He just needs to be used in a slightly different way and the awesome athlete that we have all been hoping will emerge, will emerge
15 Jun 2012, 11:53 am
…… I couldn’t care which FRANCHISE Spies plays for….
15 Jun 2012, 11:55 am
@Skeppie(Skeppie)-124:
Spies isn’t ball player though. He plays like a wing expecting to be given the ball. He has no distribution skills or awareness and the rest of the time on defence he’s generally the second man to the tackle or dropping back at the rucks to give the impression he’s covering the fringes. The problem is that if there is a break around the fringe he just keeps dropping back when he should be aggressively going forward as soon as the break is made.
15 Jun 2012, 11:58 am
@Skeppie(Skeppie)-133: a succesful tackle complete means that the player was brought to ground. if you apply that ^ criteria to everyone you’s be changing most of that team.
i think you are not being fair. he made 101 running meters, are we now going to question how manytimes he got over thr tryline?
its a team sport and the stats show he is a team player. i dont see how any other 8 currently will give you the same workrate across the spectrum.
maybe one will be better at tackling opponents back, one could be better at rucks, one could be better at running the ball, but i’m not sure we have a replacement for him currently that offers everything he does.
15 Jun 2012, 11:58 am
@STBUR(STBUR)-134: Yup it is confusing he could be a bok great if he applied some mongrel to his defence. He ticks a lot of other boxes but in test rugby, and especially as a loosie he should excel defensivley.
15 Jun 2012, 12:02 pm
@roobarb2(roobarb2)-138: Dont get me wrong I do think he is a very good rugby player but he frustrates me as he could be sso much better. In terms of defining a tackle just brining the player to ground is no longer deemed a sucess in fact a tackle that allows the opposition runner to offload creates danger for the defending team. In test rugby a loosie need to stop the runner and hit him backwards if possible, not allow him to make an extra 1-2 metres after contact. It’s not really being unfair, no-one expects your scrummie to smash player back but a big number 8 playing test rugby unfortunately is expected to smash players in the tackle.
15 Jun 2012, 12:04 pm
Test
15 Jun 2012, 12:08 pm
Sorry for the length of this post. Thought it made for interesting reading on this idle Friday.
Provincialism will be the death of us
by Brenden Nel
Rugby fans are funny things. Passionate and strong willed, opinionated and with a love of the game that is seldom matched by other sports in this country.
But while as a new South Africa we have tasted the highs and lows of international rugby, won World Cups and endured scandals that have made us look inward, increasingly there is a trend to be one-eyed and provincial in our outlook.
Last weekend while sitting in Durban, in the middle of the Bok test and while the Boks were winning, I couldn’t believe my twitter and Facebook timeline was still being flooded by people who were referring to the “Springbulls” and “Bulls v England”.
With little comprehension of what was going on, these same folk forgot that there were seven Sharks in the starting line-up, and no matter what provincial bias you prefer, it was the Green and Gold, the Springboks who were playing – not just for a coach, but for the pride of a nation.
Speak to any player and he will scoff at the thought of any provincialism within the camp. But look outside and every comment board, every forum is filled with vitriol of anger and hate at a supposed Bulls bias.
If my years in this business have taught me one thing, it is that nobody will ever be happy with a Springbok team. Whoever the coach, whatever his background, there will always be players regarded as the coach’s favourites.
There will always be players unlucky not to have made it. There will always be selections we don’t agree with.
This is not something new, and happens in all sports and to all countries across the world. Ask the New Zealand public whether they want Piri Weepu in the squad and you’ll probably hear a similar debate, even though All Black coach Steve Hansen sees a talented player who can add value to the squad.
Still, the one thing that should unite this country is the national team. Players do not pick themselves, and a coach is selected because he was the best candidate.
But unfortunately these past few weeks have seen a distorted picture of what people believe Heyneke Meyer wants for the Bok team. I’ve heard every theory on earth, and everyone seems to start with a Bulls bias.
I’ve known Meyer a long time, and he is only interested in one thing – winning. I once quizzed him on his Bok team several years ago when the Bulls had won their third Currie Cup, and was surprised that few Bulls would have made his starting line-up.
His match-22 selections have proven this in the past two weeks as more Sharks have been selected than any other team.
But then there are the stats. I’ve gone and delved into the past to see if there really is such a bias and if perhaps, as I’m sure I will be accused of being Bullish, I may be wrong.
Looking at team selections of Jake White and Peter de Villiers, the trend proves my point. Both previous coaches on average picked more Bulls players than Heyneke in their match 22.
Just look at the stats below, and you can see that this is the case, and a clear trend starts to come to the fore.
JAKE WHITE
26/05/2007 – England – BB = 8 KZN = 8 WP = 2
02/06/2007 – England – BB = 7 KZN = 8 WP = 2
16/06/2007 – Australia – BB = 7 KZN = 8 WP = 2
23/06/2007 – New Zealand – BB = 6 KZN = 8 WP = 2
07/07/2007 – Australia – BB = 6 KZN = 8 WP = 3
14/07/2007 – New Zealand – BB = 6 KZN = 7 WP = 5
09/09/2007 – Samoa – BB = 6 KZN = 8 WP = 2
14/09/2007 – England – BB = 7 KZN = 9 WP = 0
14/10/2007 – Argentina – BB = 6 KZN = 9 WP = 1
20/10/2007 – England – BB = 8 KZN = 8 WP = 1
PETER DE VILLIERS
05/06/2010 – Wales – BB = 5 KZN = 7 WP = 5
12/06/2010 – France – BB = 11 KZN = 3 WP = 7
10/07/2010 – New Zealand – BB = 10 KZN = 3 WP = 7
17/07/2010 – New Zealand – BB = 9 KZN = 3 WP = 7
24/07/2010 – Australia – BB – 12 KZN = 3 WP = 4
21/08/2010 – New Zealand – BB = 9 KZN = 3 WP = 7
28/08/2010 – Australia – BB = 8 KZN = 4 WP = 6
04/09/2010 – Australia – BB = 8 KZN = 4 WP = 7
27/11/2010 – England – BB = 8 KZN = 7 WP = 2
23/07/2011 – Australia – BB = 9 KZN = 8 WP = 2
30/07/2011 – NZ – BB = 8 KZN = 8 WP = 1
13/08/2011 – Australia – BB = 8 KZN = 6 WP = 4
20/08/2011 – NZ – BB = 8 KZN = 4 WP = 3
Heyneke chose seven Bulls in his match 22 in last week’s test and eight (through injury) this week for the Coca-Cola Park game.
In both cases he has hardly had more of a Bulls tinge than his predecessors.
But the argument may be made for more Stormers in the squad; and it is a valid one – there certainly were players who were unlucky and who will be there shortly.
What should be remembered, and Heyneke said it more than once this year, that he chose conservatively for the England series because he had little time to work with players.
Therefore, as he repeated, he was going with experience over talent, and would blend that talent in later on.
The bottom line in this argument, however, is pretty simple. This isn’t a Super Rugby or provincial franchise. These are the Springboks.
Yes, we all would love to have our own favourite players in the squad and yes there were definitely players who deserved to be there and aren’t, and others, in my opinion, who are lucky to have their places.
But Meyer has been entrusted with a role to play, to see his vision out of creating a winning team.
He has a very good track record and the imprints of his plan for domination could be seen from the second-half performance.
Surely we should give him a chance, and stop this nonsensical bleating on provincial grounds.
After all, it is Bok Friday, and my blood is green.
I, for one, won’t be blind to his faults, but I also don’t care what province a player is from.
These are the Springboks. They deserve our support.
Save the provincialism for the rest of the year. For now, only Green and Gold matter.
15 Jun 2012, 12:09 pm
@ STBUR – 131
I am salivating at the thought of Goosen playing for the Boks one day. I really hope he lives up to his potential.
That try he scored when he got injured was the best try I have seen any SA flyhalf score possibly ever.
I hope the Stormers offer him a cheque with lots of zeros on it as soon as they are allowed to, but I think the Bulls and Sharks will definitley be waving $$$$$$$ at him as well.
15 Jun 2012, 12:16 pm
@John Galt(John Galt)-142: Damn straight, I am amazed at some of the prvincial comments that get passed, I am a sharks supporter but I will support any SA side when playing against the aussies or kiwi’s. I’ll obviously support the sharks whenever they play but its awesome to see some of the great players coming out of the other unions.
15 Jun 2012, 12:20 pm
@Blokkies(Blokkies)-143:
My only real concern about him is that he appears slightly fragile. Even before his dislocated shoulder he took several hits that left him on the ground or had to leave the field. Maybe it means nothing and was just coincidence but I hope the Bok coaching staff focus on his physical preparedness because it might not be entirely up to scratch.
Having him at the Stormers would be unbelievable although I would feel sorry for the Cheetahs losing another star player, yet again.
15 Jun 2012, 12:24 pm
@STBUR(STBUR)-145:
@Blokkies(Blokkies)-143:
Goosen will stay in Bloem.
Stormers are chasing Elton I heard.
15 Jun 2012, 12:29 pm
@Blokkies(Blokkies)-143: The Bulls have been trying for a while, but Goosen has committed to the Free State for the next few years, if I remember correctly.
15 Jun 2012, 12:35 pm
@Robzim(Robzim)-146:
Elton is somewhat better than Peter Grant. I still think Duvenhage is part of the Stormer’s try scoring problem.
15 Jun 2012, 12:36 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-147: He would fit in nicely at the Sharks…
15 Jun 2012, 12:38 pm
@Skeppie(Skeppie)-144: you must a rare breed of guppy, the usual lot hate the stormers and want to see their season “POP” and deflate
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