Preview – Boks vs England (3rd Test)
22 Jun 2012
JON CARDINELLI analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner of the clash at the Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium.
Wet weather is forecast for Saturday and slippery conditions will force a more conservative approach. Unfortunately for England, it will prevent them from playing the game at a more lively pace.
England coach Stuart Lancaster has spoken about accuracy at the breakdown, and it is the speed of the recycle as well as the space it creates that may cause the Bok defence problems. However, it will prove difficult to win clean ball at the rucks and play the game at pace when the rain is bucketing down.
The Boks will stick to their game plan regardless of the conditions. Their pack will be tasked with replicating last week’s first-half performance, where their dominance at the gainline resulted in terrific continuity, and they eventually proved impossible to resist.
Willem Alberts has been sidelined with injury, but there’s still sufficient grunt in the Bok pack to ensure that they set a platform. Bismarck du Plessis is an important player in this regard, as is Eben Etzebeth and Beast Mtawarira.
Jacques Potgieter has been given a task that borders on unfair in that he’s expected to replace Alberts as both a momentum-gatherer and a momentum-stopper. Lancaster has selected imposing ball carriers in Thomas Waldrom and Tom Palmer, and so a player like Potgieter is going to have his hands full on defence.
Both teams have been inconsistent at the set pieces, and there should be another close contest at the lineout and scrum. Everything comes down to the forwards’ performance at the tackle, however, as it will determine which team sets the platform needed to employ their respective game plans.
Morné Steyn has struggled with his goal-kicking in this series, but has played a decisive role with his line-kicking. Territory will be even more important than before, as wet weather typically contributes to a higher error rate. Both teams will avoid playing too much rugby in their own half for fear of conceding possession and handing the opposition opportunities.
It could blunt the attacking edge of Bok fullback Gio Aplon, and force him to concentrate on a neglected area of his game. He began his career with the Stormers as an attacking player who could also boot the ball prodigious distances. That underrated left foot will be needed this Saturday as Steyn looks for support as the Boks’ drive for territorial ascendancy.
While Steyn will look to kick for territory, he will also use the rain and wind to his advantage. England’s Alex Goode is starting his first match at fullback and so a series of garryowens is inevitable. The pressure on the youngster will be intensified when Bryan Habana and JP Pietersen, who are both in terrific form, chase the kick.
The Boks may have already won the series, but there’s still plenty to play for. This match will serve as the last opportunity to play as a unit before the Rugby Championship, and they will be determined to improve on what have been, to be brutally honest, patchy performances in Durban and Johannesburg.
Coach Heyneke Meyer has been forced to make three changes but has otherwise kept the starting side intact. Meanwhile, Lancaster has made forced changes as well as tactical ones.
The only England combination that remains in place following the Ellis Park defeat is the midfield of Manu Tuilagi and Jonathan Joseph. Lancaster hopes that the new selections will boost England’s physical effort, but I think that six changes could do more harm than good to a side searching for continuity.
JC’S CALL: Boks by 7
Springboks – 15 Gio Aplon, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Jacques Potgieter, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Juandré Kruger, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Werner Kruger, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Ryan Kankowski, 20 Ruan Pienaar, 21 Elton Jantjies, 22 Bjorn Basson.
England – 15 Alex Goode, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Manusamoa Tuilagi, 11 Ben Foden, 10 Toby Flood, 9 Danny Care, 8 Thomas Waldrom, 7 James Haskell, 6 Tom Johnson, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 Tom Palmer, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley (c), 1 Joe Marler.
Subs: 16 Lee Mears, 17 Paul Doran Jones, 18 Mouritz Botha, 19 Phil Dowson, 20 Lee Dickson, 21 Owen Farrell, 22 Brad Barritt.
400 Comments
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22 Jun 2012, 14:31 pm
@Sasuke(Sasuke)-347:
Schalk pumps iron as much as everybody else despite being naturally strong and a natural athlete. It made him even stronger.
22 Jun 2012, 14:31 pm
@Fern is not a stud,he is merely no19(Fern)-336: yes that is true. No wonder Bismarck is so strong.
22 Jun 2012, 14:32 pm
@BrumbiesBoy(BrumbiesBoy)-348:
22 Jun 2012, 14:33 pm
@Robzim(Robzim)-351: I would like to see the stats. I remember a few years ago during Jake’s time it was reported Schalk benched 130 kg.
22 Jun 2012, 14:34 pm
@BrumbiesBoy(BrumbiesBoy)-348:
22 Jun 2012, 14:35 pm
@mako(mako)-350:
the AB pack is certainly going to have to muscle up against the Bokke, Kaino is a massive loss for us he was just huge last year so its going to be a tough old year if we want to stay number 1
22 Jun 2012, 14:35 pm
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-346: anuty= aunty
22 Jun 2012, 14:38 pm
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA)-356: Yes that is a big loss might. Brad Thorn too. I wonder how Brodie will do against Etzebeth.
22 Jun 2012, 14:38 pm
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA)-356:
dont see it happening.
i think you’ll drop this year.
22 Jun 2012, 14:39 pm
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA)-356: Well it will be a very interesting challenge because you guys have a backline that is unbelievably good. If our pack can reach their full potential then it will be their job to starve your backline of quality ball. A great test to look forward to, and the great news is there are a couple of games for them to fight it out!
22 Jun 2012, 14:40 pm
@Sasuke(Sasuke)-354:
I always take gym stats with a pinch of salt as I do not believe the guys really go for maximum lifts very often. They will be crazy if they do because it can only lead to injury. The key- word these days is explosive -strenght. In that regard Spieis apparently in a class of his own.
Interesting enough Andries Bekker is also very good in that regard- quite freakishly athletic for someone so tall.
22 Jun 2012, 14:41 pm
@Sasuke(Sasuke)-358:
Forgot about Thorn incredible athlete at 36, Brodie and Etzebeth both look the goods to me
@toulon says(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-359:
the pressure to stay number 1 is incredible, getting there is the easy part
22 Jun 2012, 14:43 pm
@mako(mako)-360:
the NZ test will be played in Dunedin in the fully enclosed stadium so the weather will play no part, running rugby here we come
22 Jun 2012, 14:45 pm
@Robzim(Robzim)-361: Yes that is true. i hope bekker is back to his best. boks will need him.
22 Jun 2012, 14:45 pm
very hot up here in NW China tonight so im heading out for a cold one – cheers
22 Jun 2012, 14:46 pm
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA)-363: How did Morne kick in the game against the highlanders over there? Kickers struggle in that venue!
22 Jun 2012, 14:47 pm
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA)-363: Fantastic, there could be no greater challenge for our Bok side. That game will show us where we really are in world rugby.
22 Jun 2012, 14:48 pm
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA)-365: Enjoy, hope you get to watch the U20′s final!
22 Jun 2012, 14:50 pm
Mitchell SUSPENDED with immidiate effect!
22 Jun 2012, 14:51 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-369: Haibo, really?
22 Jun 2012, 14:52 pm
@Sasuke(Sasuke)-364:
As will the Stormers… I think Etsebeth will need a rest after Saturday so hopefully Andries will be ready by next week. I would not mind to see him starting with Quinn Roux and to have Steenkamp on the bench. Seems like Nic/Schalk and Duanne are still some way off…..
22 Jun 2012, 14:52 pm
@mako(mako)-370: yebo gogo
22 Jun 2012, 14:54 pm
@Robzim(Robzim)-349:
Basic body strength comes from bone structure, ligaments, cartilages and tendons, its strength cannot be improved in the gym, only by the use of ‘other means’
Muscles can be improved but it’s a long and gradual process in the gym, usually the farm boys have the advantage from their early exposure to physical effort.
And
Strenght and fitness not usually going together, look at the beast’s work rate
22 Jun 2012, 14:55 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-369: Yoh heavy. I wonder if the Lions will struggle without him or be emanicipated without him. Could be Stormers first bonus point win coming up! lol
22 Jun 2012, 14:57 pm
@Robzim(Robzim)-371: Yes Quinn Roux has really been impressive. Ja we need Burger, Koster and Vermeulen back asap! Lets hope they make it for the play-offs
22 Jun 2012, 15:11 pm
@Sasuke(Sasuke)-374: whooooooaaaa if stormers lose to the coach-less lions it will be really eh…………………………EMBRABOER
22 Jun 2012, 15:21 pm
thems the breaks for mitchell
nothing he’s not used too.
22 Jun 2012, 15:23 pm
hayibo is a brilliant website
22 Jun 2012, 15:24 pm
Lions are the ANCYL of South African Rugby
22 Jun 2012, 15:25 pm
“No Gran, the BOTTOM BOX, I said tick the BOTTOM BOX!!!!!!!!!!!”
OFFS!!!!!!!!!!!
22 Jun 2012, 15:26 pm
what does embraboer mean?
22 Jun 2012, 15:40 pm
it just started to rain at nuweland
22 Jun 2012, 15:45 pm
@BrumbiesBoy(BrumbiesBoy)-380:
22 Jun 2012, 15:49 pm
@Fern is not a stud,he is merely no19(Fern)-382: Ooooo are you undercover?
@Fern is not a stud,he is merely no19(Fern)-381: How do you pronounce it?
22 Jun 2012, 15:51 pm
no sasuke i am in pta
they said so on tv
22 Jun 2012, 16:04 pm
@Robzim(Robzim)-351:
he hates the gym.
avoids it as much as possible.
@Fern is not a stud,he is merely no19(Fern)-381:
when something is emboerising.
22 Jun 2012, 16:16 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-379:
22 Jun 2012, 16:18 pm
grunter,you know i am slow
give me a more thourough description please
22 Jun 2012, 16:20 pm
Proteas lose again, this time to the Bungladeshies, wtf , getting worse and worse
22 Jun 2012, 16:21 pm
Rugby is where our boys show their metal, cricket anf other sports except golf and swimming?? bloody useless i tell ya
22 Jun 2012, 16:22 pm
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-389:
who’s the captain..!!.. (cue hondo)
22 Jun 2012, 16:25 pm
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-390: you mean mettle…
22 Jun 2012, 16:27 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-392: yes
@toulon says(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-391:
damn ur bad, lol you will have HOndo blaming Amla for everything now lol
22 Jun 2012, 16:30 pm
@toulon says(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-391:
Hondo is pleasuring himself with a ripe melon and some NSFW pictures of Serena Williams.
22 Jun 2012, 16:32 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-394:
22 Jun 2012, 16:37 pm
No Bok mascot for newlands as it will give the baby boks “advantage”
IRB Tournament Director Philippe Bourdairias confirmed that ” SARU were welcome to make a mascot for the tournament, but they cannot allow every country to bring a mascot to the World Cup tournament”
only the pacific nations must have their hakas
22 Jun 2012, 16:39 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-396:
what about our zulu warrior?
22 Jun 2012, 16:40 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-396:
And dont dare to advance during the haka,if you do you get fined
why have the keewees not spoken out against this ruling or made their view public
the come across as the irb’s “mommy’s boys”.
22 Jun 2012, 16:40 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-396: make that “unfair advantage”
23 Jun 2012, 00:29 am
@Hondo(Hondo)-373:
“Muscles can be improved but it’s a long and gradual process in the gym, usually the farm boys have the advantage from their early exposure to physical effort.”
How do you explain Jannie Doep then?
I mean, he grew up on the farm, just like his brother.
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