SA’s big three primed for play-offs
26 Jun 2012
JON CARDINELLI writes the Stormers are favourites to win the South African conference but there is a strong chance the Bulls and Sharks will also qualify for the knockout rounds.
At present, the Bulls and Stormers are the only SA teams in the top six. That could change in the next three weeks, as the Sharks should use the four points received for a bye as well as home advantage to push for play-off inclusion.
It is likely that South Africa will have not two, but three franchises in the Super Rugby play-offs.
The Stormers are on course to retain their conference title. They have suffered a slew of injuries, and their loose-forward situation is not likely to improve before the play-offs. But given what that depleted side accomplished four weeks ago at Loftus Versfeld, you’d have to believe they are favourites to win their remaining matches against comparatively weak opposition.
They play the embattled Lions at Newlands this week, who are dealing with injury problems of their own. A potentially tricky trip to Bloemfontein will follow, although the Cheetahs are less competitive at the end of a season as injuries inevitably expose the franchise’s lack of depth. The Stormers will finish the league with a game against the Rebels, and even if they don’t bank a four-try bonus point, a win should be enough to book a place in the semi-finals.
The Bulls will play two of their three league games at home, and you’d expect them to collect five log points on each of those occasions. They’re well equipped to physically dominate the Cheetahs and Lions, and when they lay that sort of platform, they are capable of destroying defences and racking up big scores.
It will be vitally important that they collect the bonus points for four tries or more. Winning big against the Cheetahs and Lions, and possibly earning a losing bonus point against the Sharks, should be sufficient to ensure play-off qualification. But losing to the Sharks and failing to accumulate the necessary extras against the Cheetahs and Lions could lead to an early exit.
Like the Bulls, the Sharks were disappointing in their game before the break. However, they are still in a position to qualify for the next round, and their ability to do so will hinge on the result of that clash against the Bulls at Kings Park.
They will receive four points for a bye this week, and should be favourites to bury the Cheetahs in the final league game. But failure to beat the Bulls will deny them a play-off spot.
With Willem Alberts due back for that clash and a host of other Boks at their disposal, they have to be favourites to win at home. They will of course be hoping that a few overseas results go their way, as will the other South African play-off contenders.
There are nine teams vying for six play-off places, and looking at the match-ups and likely results over the next three weeks, it could be the Reds, Hurricanes and Highlanders that don’t make the cut.
The Chiefs should be good enough to top the league and win the New Zealand conference, even though they could come unstuck against the Crusaders. The Cantabrians are famous for their late-season surges, and wins against the Hurricanes, Chiefs and Force should earn them home advantage in a qualifying play-off.
The Chiefs will do the Sharks a favour in the coming weeks when they dispose of the Hurricanes and Highlanders, and the resurgent Reds should also be too strong for Jamie Joseph’s side.
The Reds will be hoping that the Sharks stumble in their remaining two matches, although three wins for the Queenslanders may also not be enough to qualify. They need to record bonus-point wins to give themselves the best chance of advancing.
If all pans out as expected, the Chiefs and Stormers will secure home field advantage for the semi-finals, and also earn a week’s break at the end of the league. The Brumbies, thanks to the absurd conference system, will finish in third place and host the Sharks in the first qualifying play-off, while the Crusaders will host the Bulls in the second.
It’s crazy to think that the Bulls may finish higher on the log than the Sharks but will still need to face a superior opponent in the first knockout match. It is likely that their play-off will take place in Christchurch against the seven-time champions rather than in Canberra against a well-drilled but inexperienced Brumbies team.
But that aside, it would mark a special feat if three South African teams qualified for the play-offs.
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162 Comments
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26 Jun 2012, 05:33 am
Primed dragons
26 Jun 2012, 05:33 am
Ifs and buts are but a DRAGON’s breath, lots still to happen in 3 weeks…
26 Jun 2012, 05:39 am
@big will(big will)-1:
It does not count unless you use capital letters…so I win!
26 Jun 2012, 05:39 am
The Sharks have put themselves in an unfortunate position, basically relying on 20 games to go their way to qualify. As a sharks supporter I think saying it’s likely that all three SA teams qualify is still a push, possible yes, but not hugely likely sadly. On the other hand I feel like someone should have a word with the Lions and Cheetahs and make sure they don’t cause any more upsets..
26 Jun 2012, 05:42 am
it can still go any way… any combination of the three could make it… or not…
stormers not there yet…
26 Jun 2012, 05:44 am
@Slartibartfast(Slartibartfast)-3:
all that counts is who tops the ‘log’…
26 Jun 2012, 05:45 am
one of those three will choke…every year always the same
26 Jun 2012, 06:28 am
@ufo(ufo)-6:
Well to be more specific, it is the one holding the trophy up at the end that counts…
26 Jun 2012, 06:28 am
It would be nice if some of the Boks could be give a break, quiet a few of them have played alot of rugby already
26 Jun 2012, 06:37 am
@Slartibartfast(Slartibartfast)-8:
is there a trophy for claiming the most dragons…?
news to me…
i’ve never taken the dragons thing seriously… so must be away down the list…
but i’ll hold thumbs for you to end up holding the trophy…
26 Jun 2012, 07:01 am
After losing agaist the Lions the Sharks don’t deserve to qualify for the play offs.
26 Jun 2012, 07:02 am
@ufo(ufo)-10:
Hey it is serious stuff, comes with a massive cheque as well, something like Keo$10,000…I think that may be the reason he took all out $$ away, to pay for the 1st prize…
Well either that or he took our money to pay his supplier
26 Jun 2012, 07:16 am
would be great to have three but lets be honest, sharks have made it hard for themselves.
26 Jun 2012, 08:45 am
@Slartibartfast(Slartibartfast)-12:
26 Jun 2012, 09:11 am
All this rugby must be a wrroy for HM. How can these players sustain this intensity year in year out. By EOYT players will be exhausted!!
26 Jun 2012, 09:16 am
It is ridiculous that there wasn’t a week off before the first English test.
And it is ridiculous that there isn’t another week off now, before the resumption of S15 rugby.
26 Jun 2012, 09:25 am
So Pieter Louw tells AC to stick his job.
Lifeboats?
26 Jun 2012, 09:27 am
@Tacitus(Deucalion)-16: Agree totally. They should look into that. How players are expected just to keep going is ridiculous. Shark Boks had not even had their 2nd bye before the first England test. Just damn pleased Sharks are having a bye this week.
How many after this S15 will be left standing? There could be many injuries. Not good for the RC coming up. This S15 tourney is just way to long. Also it should have been completed before the tests. Just hope after 2015 they schedule this tourney different. I would always want to see one tourney finish before we head into the next.
Also will players give their all now? Know if they pick up injuries they will not get selected for the Boks? Just a thought, as I think that must cross their minds.
26 Jun 2012, 09:28 am
@Tacitus(Deucalion)-16: Yes it is, but the Aussies and Kiwis are in the same boat as us.
@race of tan(race of tan)-15: Again, the All Blacks and the Wallabies have similarly hectic schedules. Yet the ABs complete Grand Slams every time they go to Europe.
26 Jun 2012, 09:29 am
@brains_trust(brains_trust)-11: Agreed.
Zero commitment.
Plus it`ll make the case for a new coach a lot stronger if we don`t make the play-offs at all . . .
26 Jun 2012, 09:32 am
@willievz(willievz)-19:
Very true! I just think they manage their players better!!!
26 Jun 2012, 09:32 am
@brains_trust(brains_trust)-11: That’s unfair on the Lions. They played well that game, didn’t they?
In any case, the Sharks seem to have found a new bogey team. Lost the CC final and drew in last year’s S15 match at the Coke Tin. The same players, in fact.
26 Jun 2012, 09:32 am
SAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAADERS !!!!!!! Time for the trophy to come back to Christchurch
26 Jun 2012, 09:32 am
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-21: Or they are just better fullstop.
26 Jun 2012, 09:34 am
@brains_trust(brains_trust)-11: “After losing agaist the Lions the Sharks don’t deserve to qualify for the play offs.”
And your Stormers lost to the Sharks…so do they too not deserve to make the play offs?…
Epic fail.
26 Jun 2012, 09:35 am
Any two sides but a CT side in the final – I be satisfied with.
but I think the Saders are the favourites again….Brumbies ..dark horse finalists??…NTvl vs Crusaders Repeat
26 Jun 2012, 09:36 am
@Original-Pierre(Original-Pierre)-20: You have to remember we had so many players in our team starting for the Boks the following week. I think they all knew they were selected then already, as we have now read that Alberts knew a few weeks before that test. How many held back not wanting to pick up a injury? Can never rule that out. Who wants to miss out on selection to represent their country?
This tourney is way to long and it is a joke we have to have a derby a week before a test. Just crazy. Like Tac said there should have been a rest week before the test and probably a rest week straight after as well. Actually this tourney should be completed before the tests start. Saru were fools to accept this schedule and daft format for the S15.
If our Sharks don’t make it then at least our Boks will have rested players. Seeing we have more starting in the XV than any other franchise.
26 Jun 2012, 09:37 am
@willievz(willievz)-24:
…or better coached…
26 Jun 2012, 09:37 am
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-21: I also think the fact that they don’t target brick walls to run into, but rather look for space and let the ball do most of the work instead of the player helps their cause quite a bit as well.
Until our coaches realise that a set of skills is more valuable than a set of pecs – our lot are going to keep burning out a little quicker than our friends in NZ and Oz.
General wear and tear aside, our boys burn themselves out.
26 Jun 2012, 09:38 am
For losing to the Lions (a bit predictably), Plumtree must gaan. In his tenure the Sharks have lacked a bit in the top two inches, and never was this so clear than when the Sharks lost to the lousy Lions. A win would have virtually secured their place in the play offs, and probably secured a home quarterfinal too.
PLUMTREE MUST GO! BAASHFORD MUST GO! REECE-EDWARDS MUST GO! STREAULI MUST GO!
26 Jun 2012, 09:38 am
@greatest13gerber(greatest13gerber)-26: Think it will be just to tough for Bulls to head over to play Saders in NZ and win there. In this format you have to get a home semi to have any chance really.
26 Jun 2012, 09:39 am
@Puma(Puma)-27: Hehehehehehe, is that the silver lining all Sharks fans will be clinging onto now? “We have more players in the Bok team so the S15 is of no importance”.
26 Jun 2012, 09:40 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-29:
…hmmm didn’t think of that one…
We tend to tell our players what to do!
26 Jun 2012, 09:42 am
@willievz(willievz)-19: They sure are in the same boat as us Wilie. The same stands for them. We all should have a weeks rest before the June tests start and again before we resume playing the S15. Tac is right there.
Actually this tourney should have been completed before the tests. So much better that way.
26 Jun 2012, 09:43 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-32:
How embraboer.
26 Jun 2012, 09:43 am
There is simply far too much rugby, and it is too condensed.
Crazy to have S15 and test match rugby happening on consecutive weekends.
The season needs to be changed into one global season. Currie Cup first, then Super rugby, then international fixtures. Reduce the size and length of Super rugby too. If only, it seems so simple *sigh*
26 Jun 2012, 09:56 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-32: NO think a little. You may just get it.
Of course the S15 is important but the Springbok cause is even more so. Whether you like it or not we do have more Boks in the starting XV. Do we want any injuries to them? Heck no. It could happen. Let us hope that Alberts is still ready to go come RC time. You saw how much we struggled with out him on Saturday. Unless Burger is over his knee injury just don’t see a like for like replacement. I am basicly talking about all Bok players from all teams, just that Sharks have more starting in the Bok XV than any other team. Who will be left standing? Injury wise?
26 Jun 2012, 09:58 am
@wooden spoon(wooden spoon)-36: Agree spooner.
26 Jun 2012, 09:58 am
don’t count on the bulls they are playing kak.
if they are to finish strong morne and hougaard need to get their acts together, alas….I think they may well be knackered and played to death this season already.
26 Jun 2012, 09:59 am
@Brigadier Van Zyl(Brigadier Van Zyl)-39: Especially Morne, don’t think he has had a rest since last year. It is showing for sure.
26 Jun 2012, 10:08 am
@Puma(Puma)-40:
he’s played every bulls game for 4 seasons.can’t remember him even being lucky enough to get an injury break. Likewise for the Boks albeit I think Butch started a couple games somewhere but he was on the bench.
I’m hoping vermaak gets a run and fourie jnr gets 50 minutes at flyhalf with morne on the bench. Juandre also needs to play off the bench for a couple of games. Other than that, I think the bulls squad with the exception of steggmann should be availible for selection. I can only hope that Ludeke did some tactical with the bullies these past few weeks, the stormers game should have been a comfortable win with the amount of territory and possession they had. I suppose that in itself is a good sign but I don’t know anymore….
26 Jun 2012, 10:09 am
@Puma(Puma)-37: I think you may have a winner here. Now if you can get HG to buy into your philosophy, and you Sharkies can put up a united front on this – another dismal Super rugby showing can be justified.
Just one question: Do you think the Kiwi franchises and AB coaching staff will be thinking in this manner?
26 Jun 2012, 10:15 am
@wooden spoon(wooden spoon)-30:
plumtree, bashford, reece-edwards, streauli.
hehehe
how many brain cells could they possibly have between them…
26 Jun 2012, 10:19 am
That’s a brains trust for sure. Fact is, judging by the amount of Boks that the Sharks contribute each year anything less than multiple titles is a dismal failure.
They all know that unfortunately.
26 Jun 2012, 10:31 am
And the stormers have had 15 stellar years of superrugby?
26 Jun 2012, 10:33 am
@rangerman(rangerman)-45: Well I know for a fact we ain’t ever been the bookend on the wrong side of the log
26 Jun 2012, 10:34 am
@Stormersboy recons it is totally going to be our year(stormersboy)-44: You did not get the memo. It is BECAUSE the Sharks provide so many Boks, that Super rugby is less important to them.
26 Jun 2012, 10:35 am
@Stormersboy recons it is totally going to be our year(stormersboy)-44: We all know it absolutely. Have no idea why we don’t go better bud. Frustrating really.
Anyhow for now I am only talking Bok rugby and hoping that none of the Boks in the Sharks pick up a serious injury. If we do make the play offs and have have to travel to Oz and beat the Brumbies then head off to Nz to face the Chiefs if the log stays the same. Not sure if we will go any further than that. That would mean 4 more S15 games and plenty travel. With so many Boks in our team it is a worry. Then back home. Eish! bud that is some serous travel before the Boks head off to Cape Town and Argentina then back home and off to Perth then NZ. HECTIC!! I was PURELY think of our Bok players in our team. What I was trying to to point out to some that is with so many of the Boks starting XV in our team it is a huge worry. I am worried for our chances in the RC. Really want us to win it. We have to enter that tourney without injuries and be fresh to have a good start. Just too much rugby before the RC.
26 Jun 2012, 10:38 am
streauli = straeuli
@Stormersboy recons it is totally going to be our year(stormersboy)-44:
talk like sharks and play like seals…
or
talk like sharks and play like surfers…
26 Jun 2012, 10:38 am
Well thats probably because your lot had to wash cars for a whole season whilst the sharks kept up the saffa end. Eh? Nudge nudge wink wink.
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