SA’s big three primed for play-offs
26 Jun 2012
JON CARDINELLI writes the Stormers are favourites to win the South African conference but there is a strong chance the Bulls and Sharks will also qualify for the knockout rounds.
At present, the Bulls and Stormers are the only SA teams in the top six. That could change in the next three weeks, as the Sharks should use the four points received for a bye as well as home advantage to push for play-off inclusion.
It is likely that South Africa will have not two, but three franchises in the Super Rugby play-offs.
The Stormers are on course to retain their conference title. They have suffered a slew of injuries, and their loose-forward situation is not likely to improve before the play-offs. But given what that depleted side accomplished four weeks ago at Loftus Versfeld, you’d have to believe they are favourites to win their remaining matches against comparatively weak opposition.
They play the embattled Lions at Newlands this week, who are dealing with injury problems of their own. A potentially tricky trip to Bloemfontein will follow, although the Cheetahs are less competitive at the end of a season as injuries inevitably expose the franchise’s lack of depth. The Stormers will finish the league with a game against the Rebels, and even if they don’t bank a four-try bonus point, a win should be enough to book a place in the semi-finals.
The Bulls will play two of their three league games at home, and you’d expect them to collect five log points on each of those occasions. They’re well equipped to physically dominate the Cheetahs and Lions, and when they lay that sort of platform, they are capable of destroying defences and racking up big scores.
It will be vitally important that they collect the bonus points for four tries or more. Winning big against the Cheetahs and Lions, and possibly earning a losing bonus point against the Sharks, should be sufficient to ensure play-off qualification. But losing to the Sharks and failing to accumulate the necessary extras against the Cheetahs and Lions could lead to an early exit.
Like the Bulls, the Sharks were disappointing in their game before the break. However, they are still in a position to qualify for the next round, and their ability to do so will hinge on the result of that clash against the Bulls at Kings Park.
They will receive four points for a bye this week, and should be favourites to bury the Cheetahs in the final league game. But failure to beat the Bulls will deny them a play-off spot.
With Willem Alberts due back for that clash and a host of other Boks at their disposal, they have to be favourites to win at home. They will of course be hoping that a few overseas results go their way, as will the other South African play-off contenders.
There are nine teams vying for six play-off places, and looking at the match-ups and likely results over the next three weeks, it could be the Reds, Hurricanes and Highlanders that don’t make the cut.
The Chiefs should be good enough to top the league and win the New Zealand conference, even though they could come unstuck against the Crusaders. The Cantabrians are famous for their late-season surges, and wins against the Hurricanes, Chiefs and Force should earn them home advantage in a qualifying play-off.
The Chiefs will do the Sharks a favour in the coming weeks when they dispose of the Hurricanes and Highlanders, and the resurgent Reds should also be too strong for Jamie Joseph’s side.
The Reds will be hoping that the Sharks stumble in their remaining two matches, although three wins for the Queenslanders may also not be enough to qualify. They need to record bonus-point wins to give themselves the best chance of advancing.
If all pans out as expected, the Chiefs and Stormers will secure home field advantage for the semi-finals, and also earn a week’s break at the end of the league. The Brumbies, thanks to the absurd conference system, will finish in third place and host the Sharks in the first qualifying play-off, while the Crusaders will host the Bulls in the second.
It’s crazy to think that the Bulls may finish higher on the log than the Sharks but will still need to face a superior opponent in the first knockout match. It is likely that their play-off will take place in Christchurch against the seven-time champions rather than in Canberra against a well-drilled but inexperienced Brumbies team.
But that aside, it would mark a special feat if three South African teams qualified for the play-offs.
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162 Comments
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26 Jun 2012, 10:41 am
Relegation.
At least the lions wont be the 1st saffa team it happens to.
What team did stormers fans support that year their team worked on their gardens?
26 Jun 2012, 10:41 am
@rangerman(rangerman)-50:
you mean the stormers relegation season?
i remember that…
oh good times…good times…
26 Jun 2012, 10:42 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-42: Kiwi coaches will be thinking the same. Have no doubt about it. Though their top team sits on top of the log. So the travel wont be a problem for them. Saders will have to travel if they beat the Bulls though.
Doubt my Sharks we will make it though, but if we do the travel will be a monster. The injuries may come and then that is what I was talking about. It might ruin our chances in the RC with us having so many Boks in our team. I am not even thinking about S15 right now, I am talking about our Boks. Get with it…
26 Jun 2012, 10:43 am
lions can take heart from the stormers experience
and with a little luck and a lot of hard work
can maybe make it back one day soon.
26 Jun 2012, 10:44 am
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-17: I don’t understand that ? Louw was “committed” to the Stormers, having made a come back but has now decided to go back to (his) business. Maybe he was asking for the same package as Sinclair and Rob Wagner said no ??
26 Jun 2012, 10:44 am
@rangerman(rangerman)-51: 1997 I think it was?
I just sat back and enjoyed the rugby – must be honest, it is damn relaxing just sitting back and enjoying the game, without any stress.
26 Jun 2012, 10:45 am
@Puma(Puma)-48: I think that most of us on here will agree wholeheartedly that there is way too much rugby in a season these days.
I’ve posted diatribes on this very subject countless times. The fact is, the broadcasting revenue is dictating that more not less gets played as we all know.
It does help to contribute to the large salaries that the players earn so if the Unions got stuck in and demanded less then they would get paid less, and so there is a Catch 22.
26 Jun 2012, 10:45 am
Ja toulon surely not even qualifying to play means you end as the bookend for the bookends?
Ag i dont know
26 Jun 2012, 10:47 am
@rangerman(rangerman)-51:
Why bring up the history.
I can always start telling you about the WP team that won 5 currie cups in succession during the eighties.
Now that was a great team… Lets start with the fullback….
26 Jun 2012, 10:49 am
@rangerman(rangerman)-51:
we STILL supported our team…
but our gardens looked great…!!
would take more than relegation and a losing decade to make us supporters abandon ship… this IS the cape of storm… so we’re no fair-weather fans…
you bladdy agent foreign agents will never understand the dynamic…
26 Jun 2012, 10:50 am
Haha woofles ok.
(G)Rant10 supported the sharks.
But the love is gone now.
Where is blackpanty/pwickboks since he was rumbled?
He is so cute when he is bitter.
26 Jun 2012, 10:51 am
@CharlesM(CharlesM)-55:
Maybe he knew he would be let go again when the others were fit and felt that it wasn’t worth leaving his business.
Maybe he was upset that he was getting less than half of what Sinclair was getting?
26 Jun 2012, 10:53 am
@rangerman(rangerman)-58:
hehe
stormers didn’t scrape the barrel that season… they were the barrel
to think there was a time when the lions and cheetahs said to the stormers ‘fokk0ff! you not invited”
26 Jun 2012, 10:55 am
Hohoho robbo and ufo you guys are some of my favourite stormers.
I have decided to let all my anger go and admit that wp used to be a great team.
26 Jun 2012, 10:57 am
@rangerman(rangerman)-61:
Now that Gwantie is a namibia supporter everybody is happy.
26 Jun 2012, 10:57 am
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-62:
According to Nic Koster, Brok Harris lapped him by round three going round a rugby field – it probably broke his spirit for good. Not that Brok is slow but he is also no Haile Gebralassie.
26 Jun 2012, 10:58 am
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-62: Yeah. Don’t blame him actually. The using and abusing of players is sadly a ‘look’ perfected by the WPRFU.
Took a lot for him to get back into shape etc, only to be offered peanuts per game I suppose.
Not worth the risk, nor the effort.
26 Jun 2012, 10:59 am
@Stormersboy recons it is totally going to be our year(stormersboy)-57: Yip for sure.
26 Jun 2012, 11:00 am
@rangerman(rangerman)-51:
Now then.
Natal didn’t play in the 1995 Super 10. What did you guys do then?
26 Jun 2012, 11:00 am
LOL a bit rich when the Sharks were not even competing in the top flight of domestic rugby for the first `100 years or so,
But lets not bring up the past shall we?
Let’s live in the here and now.
Where the Sharks’ last league game was a loss to probably the worst Super Rugby team since inception.
26 Jun 2012, 11:00 am
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-62: I suppose so yes. The WP / Stormers didn’t offer him a contract extension at the end of last year. They obviously didn’t think there would be so many injuries, but they should have thought about the Currie Cup / Vodacom Cup. Louw was a solid (if not spectacular) player and is still relatively young. He was in Matric in 2003 or 4 – so he is not older than 27 (maybe still 26) and could offer some valuable service. Having said, he had a lot of injuries during the last season and couldn’t play much. I guess Wagner thought that the youngsters and Schalk, Vermeulen, Koster etc would be sufficient cover.
26 Jun 2012, 11:01 am
@ufo(ufo)-60: @Robzim(Robzim)-59: :lol
26 Jun 2012, 11:02 am
@Stormersboy recons it is totally going to be our year(stormersboy)-70:
true,
i watched inception and the sharks def didn’t make it.
26 Jun 2012, 11:04 am
hehehe…
and yet the stormers are still the best supported rugby franchise…
their supporters have been tested and proven their support is unwavering…
unlike the fans of ‘other franchises’ that disappear when their teams lose…
26 Jun 2012, 11:06 am
die grappe is snaaks
26 Jun 2012, 11:06 am
@Robzim(Robzim)-66:
hehehe
gotta love the brokster…!!!
26 Jun 2012, 11:07 am
@ufo(ufo)-74: Ed zachery wise one!
We took our relegation year like the men we are and just picked up where we left off.
The true test of mettle will be the Lions next year.
Unfortunate considering the highs of the start of the Super Rugby comp.
26 Jun 2012, 11:08 am
what do they say…?
you’re only as good as your last game…?
so guys… how did your last game go…??
26 Jun 2012, 11:08 am
@Stormersboy recons it is totally going to be our year(stormersboy)-70: I have told you before: you did not get the memo.
The Sharks lost to the Lions because their Bok players (who had been informed of their selection in the middle of the S15 already – as per Alberts) were already saving their bodies and minds for the English.
Superugby is a necessary evil for the Sharks, nothing more, nothing less.
(Although reading P Divvy’s book, it is clear Plumtree never bought into the Boks 1st, Sharks 2nd cause – but that’s ok, as long as the fans but into it)
26 Jun 2012, 11:08 am
@ufo(ufo)-76: Taking the prop-half role seriously i see.
Actually he has to be one of the fittest front rowers in Super Rugby, with the amount of work he gets through in a game.
26 Jun 2012, 11:08 am
Hahaha.
Ag every team has tough times.
Some tougher than others…
26 Jun 2012, 11:09 am
@ufo(ufo)-76:
I have exaggerated a bit, maybe it was not Brok, lol.
The real story from Nic’s blog is (you have probably seen it) :
“It’s great to see our stalwart loose-forward Pieter Louw back at the HPC. During Pieter’s first 1,6km, which is five laps around the field, he was running impressively well and he even started sprinting on the final straight to end in the top three. The problem was that Pieter miscounted his laps and actually had another lap to go. His feeling of elation at ‘finishing’ immediately filled with one of excruciating disappointment at having to run another lap”.
26 Jun 2012, 11:10 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-79: I remember all that rationalization after the game.
Didn’t buy it then.
Don’t buy it now.
26 Jun 2012, 11:11 am
@Robzim(Robzim)-82:
I can understand how you wanted it to be brok that lapped him.
26 Jun 2012, 11:12 am
@Stormersboy recons it is totally going to be our year(stormersboy)-77:
yeah the Lions will be left with at least two supporters… katman and hhs who’ve never wavered either…
your new nic really got Toulon in a spin… of who it must be said is not the only Toulon keo…
just kidding bakkies…
26 Jun 2012, 11:12 am
Aha so its cc we are talking now eh?
2008
2010
Finalists 2011
Not too shabby hehe.
26 Jun 2012, 11:13 am
I have never understood the whole Pieter Louw story. He was a great player who always impressed when he played, just don’t get whey they didn’t extend his contract.
There is definitely more than meets the eye,
26 Jun 2012, 11:14 am
@ufo(ufo)-85: Yes the Oracle has spoken.
I feel it in my water,
26 Jun 2012, 11:16 am
@rangerman(rangerman)-86: Well done on those.
It;s so nice to see one of the traditional minnows of SA Rugby come good, even if it’s just for a while…..
26 Jun 2012, 11:16 am
@Stormersboy recons it is totally going to be our year(stormersboy)-87:
very underrated.
not stupid either.
which probably made him a bad fit with the stormers management.
26 Jun 2012, 11:16 am
@wooden spoon(wooden spoon)-36: I agree, Currie cup 1st! The Aussies must start their own domestic comp and shorten the S15!
26 Jun 2012, 11:18 am
@rangerman(rangerman)-81: in the natal/sharks case just 100 years of total kukness
26 Jun 2012, 11:19 am
@rangerman(rangerman)-86:
seriously guy…seriously..?
@ufo(ufo)-85:
only tool i’ll be needing is a calculator to work out the stormers trophy sums come pay day
26 Jun 2012, 11:19 am
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-90: With a forehead like his I’m sure he’s a downright genius.
I think when someone from the Blue Bulls called and told Thelo that they had a mole inside the WP team Thelo took it too literally….
26 Jun 2012, 11:20 am
@Robzim(Robzim)-82:
@Stormersboy recons it is totally going to be our year(stormersboy)-80:
yeah.. i read nick’s column every week… a good writer and story teller… he certainly has a career in sports writing when his body packs up…
did you see the clip with brok and tiaan talking about playing fullback…? quite funny… brok and tiaan reckon brok would make a good full back… gets good distance with his kicks… (which we’ve all seen before…)
and yeah brok gets around the park better than all our props… would still have him and coenie for MY team… the two playing together would really add huge value and work rate to the boks… would make a massive impact… though i know i won’t convince anyone here…
brok should go play for the bulls… then the clammer for his selection would be too deafening for heyneke to ignore…
26 Jun 2012, 11:22 am
@Stormersboy recons it is totally going to be our year(stormersboy)-94:
thelo reckons he doesn’t have enough meat on him.
26 Jun 2012, 11:23 am
@ufo(ufo)-95: Too true. Its that Bishops education.
Yes you and I agree on Brok. A Class player and changing many peoples minds this year.
And there still a lot of rugby to be played yet,
26 Jun 2012, 11:24 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-47: Might be less important to the players but spare a thought for their poor supporters!
26 Jun 2012, 11:25 am
@Stormersboy recons it is totally going to be our year(stormersboy)-87:
yeah me neither… he always maintained the intensity when subbed on… or starting…
but i did see an article “quoting” AC where he said pieter and the medical guys did not think he would recover well enough from his last injury to be competitive again and thought he should start building his own business and securing his future because it didn’t look like he would be around in rugby… or something like that…
26 Jun 2012, 11:25 am
@Stormersboy recons it is totally going to be our year(stormersboy)-97: I also rate Brok, a workhorse of note.
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