SA’s big three primed for play-offs
26 Jun 2012
JON CARDINELLI writes the Stormers are favourites to win the South African conference but there is a strong chance the Bulls and Sharks will also qualify for the knockout rounds.
At present, the Bulls and Stormers are the only SA teams in the top six. That could change in the next three weeks, as the Sharks should use the four points received for a bye as well as home advantage to push for play-off inclusion.
It is likely that South Africa will have not two, but three franchises in the Super Rugby play-offs.
The Stormers are on course to retain their conference title. They have suffered a slew of injuries, and their loose-forward situation is not likely to improve before the play-offs. But given what that depleted side accomplished four weeks ago at Loftus Versfeld, you’d have to believe they are favourites to win their remaining matches against comparatively weak opposition.
They play the embattled Lions at Newlands this week, who are dealing with injury problems of their own. A potentially tricky trip to Bloemfontein will follow, although the Cheetahs are less competitive at the end of a season as injuries inevitably expose the franchise’s lack of depth. The Stormers will finish the league with a game against the Rebels, and even if they don’t bank a four-try bonus point, a win should be enough to book a place in the semi-finals.
The Bulls will play two of their three league games at home, and you’d expect them to collect five log points on each of those occasions. They’re well equipped to physically dominate the Cheetahs and Lions, and when they lay that sort of platform, they are capable of destroying defences and racking up big scores.
It will be vitally important that they collect the bonus points for four tries or more. Winning big against the Cheetahs and Lions, and possibly earning a losing bonus point against the Sharks, should be sufficient to ensure play-off qualification. But losing to the Sharks and failing to accumulate the necessary extras against the Cheetahs and Lions could lead to an early exit.
Like the Bulls, the Sharks were disappointing in their game before the break. However, they are still in a position to qualify for the next round, and their ability to do so will hinge on the result of that clash against the Bulls at Kings Park.
They will receive four points for a bye this week, and should be favourites to bury the Cheetahs in the final league game. But failure to beat the Bulls will deny them a play-off spot.
With Willem Alberts due back for that clash and a host of other Boks at their disposal, they have to be favourites to win at home. They will of course be hoping that a few overseas results go their way, as will the other South African play-off contenders.
There are nine teams vying for six play-off places, and looking at the match-ups and likely results over the next three weeks, it could be the Reds, Hurricanes and Highlanders that don’t make the cut.
The Chiefs should be good enough to top the league and win the New Zealand conference, even though they could come unstuck against the Crusaders. The Cantabrians are famous for their late-season surges, and wins against the Hurricanes, Chiefs and Force should earn them home advantage in a qualifying play-off.
The Chiefs will do the Sharks a favour in the coming weeks when they dispose of the Hurricanes and Highlanders, and the resurgent Reds should also be too strong for Jamie Joseph’s side.
The Reds will be hoping that the Sharks stumble in their remaining two matches, although three wins for the Queenslanders may also not be enough to qualify. They need to record bonus-point wins to give themselves the best chance of advancing.
If all pans out as expected, the Chiefs and Stormers will secure home field advantage for the semi-finals, and also earn a week’s break at the end of the league. The Brumbies, thanks to the absurd conference system, will finish in third place and host the Sharks in the first qualifying play-off, while the Crusaders will host the Bulls in the second.
It’s crazy to think that the Bulls may finish higher on the log than the Sharks but will still need to face a superior opponent in the first knockout match. It is likely that their play-off will take place in Christchurch against the seven-time champions rather than in Canberra against a well-drilled but inexperienced Brumbies team.
But that aside, it would mark a special feat if three South African teams qualified for the play-offs.
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162 Comments
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26 Jun 2012, 11:26 am
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-90:
really?
i heard it was the middel bles hair issue… didnt fit in with an image they were looking for… that and the fact he turned down a cipla hair product marketing offer.
toks vd linde was not impresssed… the cabal was spoken.
26 Jun 2012, 11:27 am
@Stormersboy recons it is totally going to be our year(stormersboy)-88:
You should change the first Stormersboy to “Soothsayer”…
let these guys know exactly who they’re dealing with…
26 Jun 2012, 11:27 am
@Stormersboy recons it is totally going to be our year(stormersboy)-94:
Isn’t it “reckons”
26 Jun 2012, 11:27 am
Haha i caught a whole shoal
26 Jun 2012, 11:29 am
@ufo(ufo)-95:
hehe
where’s the vid?
26 Jun 2012, 11:29 am
Brok at fullback?
I like it.
26 Jun 2012, 11:30 am
@rangerman(rangerman)-104:
It doesn’t take much to start a Brok circle jerk.
26 Jun 2012, 11:31 am
@toulon says(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-105:
don’t know exactly… someone posted a link a week or so ago…
must say they come across as good guys… quite humorous…
26 Jun 2012, 11:32 am
@rangerman(rangerman)-104:
careful you dont hit a rock
26 Jun 2012, 11:33 am
@Dawn(Dawn)-103: clearly you’re in need of electrocution classes
26 Jun 2012, 11:36 am
Wat gaan aan?
In a nutshell!!!
26 Jun 2012, 11:38 am
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-111: Fokkolie.
Mense moan oor Spies en Morne maar dis dit.
Selle stories.
26 Jun 2012, 11:38 am
@Dawn(Dawn)-103: Quite possibly. I almost never proof read anything I post here.
I’m surprised the Auto Correct didn’t catch it.
@Transformation(Transformation)-110: You know that’s a deliberate misuse of the term right? It’s a play on elocution and electrocution? Got it?
Good
26 Jun 2012, 11:40 am
@willievz(willievz)-112:
Aha! Throw a bit of bragging into the mix and then it is just a normal day on Keo…
26 Jun 2012, 11:42 am
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-111: I’m in need of spelling lessons.
Transie’s in need of “Double Entendre” lessons.
Pieter Louw’s in need of more fitness lessons. And an extreme make-over.
Rangerman’s in need of a proper history lesson.
The only one not in need of anything in fact is BROK.
He’s perfect just the way he is.
26 Jun 2012, 11:45 am
@Stormersboy recons it is totally going to be our year(stormersboy)-115:
Oh! Call me for Life Skills…
26 Jun 2012, 11:48 am
26 Jun 2012, 11:51 am
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-116:
Will do!
26 Jun 2012, 11:51 am
Haha brok the rock the never never bok bested by beast from the coastal east in the tank where tge sgarks gave the stormers a spank he went to tge bench so his head out of his a s s they could wrench
26 Jun 2012, 11:55 am
@Stormersboy recons it is totally going to be our year(stormersboy)-113: bwahahahaha whatever you say
26 Jun 2012, 12:17 pm
Chiefs Crusaders final
26 Jun 2012, 12:47 pm
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA)-121: Huh? The Natal Province are called the Sharks and not the chiefs and the Western Province team is called the Stormers and not the Crusaders….duh
26 Jun 2012, 12:47 pm
I know this is a Super15 topic. But i’m concerned about our players and the Currie Cup (oldest and by far the most physical domestic rugby comp on the planet) The Super15 ends 4 August one week before the CC begins, 4Nations starts after the 1st round of CC and ends 6 October, then it’s the CC semi finals and final. 1 week after the CC final the boks go on the EOYT for 3-4 weeks. And this because the Aussies don’t have their own “Currie Cup” is toilet!!! The boks should be focusing on the 4nations now, not f-ing each other up in the S15!
26 Jun 2012, 12:50 pm
@Stormersboy recons it is totally going to be our year(stormersboy)-115:
26 Jun 2012, 12:51 pm
@Unplugged(Unplugged)-123: The Poms have it far worse, one could argue that thier league’s are at least as physical as ours if not as skilled and they play a lot more games than we do….The Aussies get it light but the AB’s and Boks are still behind the NH in terms of games played in a year
26 Jun 2012, 12:56 pm
One should not argue one should discuss
26 Jun 2012, 13:10 pm
In a perfect world the Super Rugby tournament would only have 10 teams and the Stormers would already be crowned champs and Saturday would have been the start of the Rugby Championship.
26 Jun 2012, 13:24 pm
@Skeppie(Skeppie)-125: Maybe so. But the Boks will never be able to start with their best 15 because of injured and mentally fatigued players. IMO this is why the boks can’t win dead rubbers(3rd test in PE) and why we have not won a grand slam since the 1960’s. Also the Currie Cup will become another Vodacom cup.
26 Jun 2012, 13:25 pm
As I recall, the Bulls lost their last 3 Super Rugby matches?
26 Jun 2012, 13:25 pm
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA)-121: Good call.
26 Jun 2012, 13:27 pm
This has to be the Bok Backline for the Championship
9. Ruan
10. Lambie
11. Habana
12. Steyn
13. Whitehead
14. Aplon
15. JP
26 Jun 2012, 13:27 pm
@willievz(willievz)-130:
So you reckon the Crusaders will beat the Stormers at home…. again.
26 Jun 2012, 13:28 pm
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA)-121:
You must be living in a denial, probably never heard of Jonker, Craig Joubert and Pro Legota!
SA secret weapons
26 Jun 2012, 13:28 pm
@FFF(FFF)-131: Are you a Sharks supporter by any chance?
26 Jun 2012, 13:28 pm
The Steyn / Whitehead could easily rival that of Nonu / Smith
same dynamics i reckon
26 Jun 2012, 13:28 pm
@Jeraldjay(Jeraldjay)-132: Yes.
26 Jun 2012, 13:29 pm
@Skeppie(Skeppie)-125:
Do you have the stats to demonstrate your point…?
Not jerking your chain… would just be very interesting to see the the discrepancy between the two hemispheres…
How many games would a saffa play is he played all SR and CC games (including playoffs and finals) and all internationals… and the equivalent figures for the European season…
26 Jun 2012, 13:30 pm
@willievz(willievz)-134:
So……..they have the best attacking backline in SA, add likes of Gio and Ruan into the mix and you have a unit that could stun the Aussie and Kiwis
26 Jun 2012, 13:31 pm
@FFF(FFF)-138: Sure but what about your defense?
26 Jun 2012, 13:33 pm
@willievz(willievz)-136:
That would be annus horribilis.
But yes, they appear to be the only team standing in our way.
26 Jun 2012, 13:35 pm
@willievz(willievz)-136:
IF ( and i realise it’s a mighty big IF)… If we and they are at full strength I believe we would take it…
you can’t quantify it and everybody would rather forget about it… but the stormers sheer bloodymindedness puts teams off their stride and gets into their minds… at home I think we have learnt the lessons of the past few seasons…
all conjecture of course… but also why I hope we do in fact get the crusaders in the playoffs… SHOULD we in fact make it that far… will be interesting to see how the rest of the season develops…. not looking good for the stormers right now injury-wise…
26 Jun 2012, 13:37 pm
@willievz(willievz)-139: OK well we know what Frans Steyn can do on defense and Tim Whitehead is solid, out wide we know that the back 3 will come through as Aplon punches above his weight, and come on Lambie can only do better then Morne Steyn
If we have a dynamic loose trio and some good defense structure in place….well defence is ticked off with that backline
26 Jun 2012, 13:38 pm
@ufo(ufo)-141: Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, yet (message to self).
A lot of water needs to run into the ocean.
Let’s take it game by game, and focus on maintaining the winning formula.
26 Jun 2012, 13:44 pm
@willievz(willievz)-143:
quite right bud…
which is why i emphasised the IFs and qualified it with SHOULD we get there… certainly not taking it for granted as our injury list is a concern and the expected returns not happening…
AND we have a tough game against the Lions with lots to prove…
so very definitely one gas at a time for me…
26 Jun 2012, 13:44 pm
@FFF(FFF)-142: I am willing to go with your backline, but JDV replacing Whitehead and switching Aplon and JP.
26 Jun 2012, 13:49 pm
@ufo(ufo)-141:
The Christchurch Earthquake was used a motivating factor throughout last season and worked to perfection, until the last hurdle.
I think the Stormers are “chomping at the bit” for success and that was evident in the game against the Bulls.
26 Jun 2012, 13:50 pm
@ufo(ufo)-144:
You right one **** at a time.
26 Jun 2012, 13:51 pm
@Jeraldjay(Jeraldjay)-147:
f a r t.
26 Jun 2012, 13:54 pm
Agree with Lambie at flyhalf, Whitehead above JdV, not yet. FUllback worrying. Taute should be there not sure how is injury is going. Can’t move JP off wing. Hougaard service too slow against England but perhaps not fully protected by no 8. Given an 8th man that can create space off the back Hougaard would be lethal. My biggest concern is that Bulls, Bok’s can’t create space for backline to score and don’t have flyhalf (like Michelak against Province) that can exploit gap created by rush defence through tactical kicks. Province backline just can’t score. Need a backline captain that can read game and change tactics. Last year’s quarter final against Aus showed we cannot penetrate with current pattern in backline. Maybe time for Pollard or Goosen to come in and be first game changers for SA since Honeyball.
26 Jun 2012, 13:54 pm
@Jeraldjay(Jeraldjay)-147:
hehehe…
damn predictive text… catches me waaay too often…
one GAME at a time…
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