Stormers still SA’s best bet
9 Jul 2012
JON CARDINELLI says the Stormers remain on course for a home semi-final, a fact that makes them the best-placed South African franchise.
As I wrote two weeks ago, three South African franchises should qualify for the 2012 play-offs. The Stormers have already booked their place in the next phase by securing the SA conference title, while the Bulls and Sharks should advance on the back of big home victories in the final round of the league.
I expect the Bulls to collect five log points from their coming fixture against the Lions, but even that may not be enough to secure home advantage in the qualifying play-off. They missed an opportunity in Durban last week in that another four points would have furthered their cause for a top-four finish. As it stands, they’re unlikely to surpass the Crusaders, and so a journey to Christchurch is now looking highly likely.
The Crusaders will host the Western Force in their final league match, and based on current form the Cantabrians must be favourites to win comfortably. Even if they accumulate four log points instead of five and the Bulls bank a full house at Loftus, the Crusaders will still finish ahead of Bulls on the log. The Bulls will be hoping the Force can do them a favour and score an upset like the Rebels did earlier in the season, but aberrations like that are surely a once in a season occurence.
Like the Stormers and Sharks, the Bulls will know what they need to do to advance before they even take the field on Saturday. The matches involving the three South African contenders are the final three of the league. No doubt the coaches of these teams will be watching the overseas fixtures on Friday and Saturday morning with keen interest.
The Stormers will be supporting the Hurricanes when they host the Chiefs. A win for the Hurricanes will mean that the Stormers merely need to beat the Rebels to secure top spot on the log. The upshot of this outcome is that the Stormers will host a semi-final and a possible final.
If the Hurricanes can’t win that match, the Stormers will at least hope that their defence limits the Chiefs to three tries or less. A Chiefs win without the bonus point will mean that the Stormers still have a chance of finishing top of the log, providing of course they score four or more tries in a win against the Rebels at Newlands.
The Bulls and Sharks, however, will be hoping that the Chiefs beat the Hurricanes and end the latter team’s play-off ambitions. They will also hope that the Waratahs beat the Reds or at least stop Ewen McKenzie’s men from claiming five log points from that encounter.
There is a chance that the Hurricanes and Reds will score bonus-point victories in their respective matches, and that would take both teams up to 58 log points. However if that were to happen, the Bulls and Sharks would still be in a good position, given that they both boast superior points differentials to that of the Hurricanes and Reds. They would, of course, still need to win their matches against the Lions and Cheetahs respectively.
It seems more likely that the Chiefs will win in Wellington, although it could be closer than most expect. What this result could do is give the Stormers a chance of claiming top spot. It is something they need to shoot for, and there isn’t a tremendous amount of risk involved.
The Brumbies are likely to beat the Blues in Canberra, and five log points would see them moving one point ahead of the Stormers. That result would see the Stormers needing at least one log point from the Rebels fixture to finish second, as they have won more matches than the Brumbies.
If the Brumbies don’t get the bonus point, then the Stormers will be free to pursue a five-point haul knowing there will be no consequences should they lose. There will however, be everything to gain in the shape of a potential home final.
Follow JC on Twitter
Follow SA Rugby magazine on Twitter
185 Comments
Pages: « 1 2 3 [4] Show All
9 Jul 2012, 12:42 pm
China you are a liar?
Btw,should you not spend time with your wife and kids instead of being in front of the pc?
Was your dad absent aswell?
Break the cycle china.
9 Jul 2012, 13:13 pm
That Sharksgirl is a breath of fresh air on here i must say.
9 Jul 2012, 13:14 pm
@Fern is not a stud,he is merely no19(Fern)-127: I am almost too terrified to ask you for which club HG plays? maybe I have spoken to him and he has a different persona on KEO? I support Maritzburg Collegians
but am also very interested in Rovers, as we always park, have our braai on their fields and have a drink in the club before and after a match. I live in PMB and so do not go to all club matches actually few of them, if I am in Durbs and can stay at my sister I make a point of going, but do not make a point of going to all, besides its getting more difficult now with my son at and Playing for Maritzburg College.
9 Jul 2012, 13:19 pm
@Tacitus(Deucalion)-104:
Just to let you know – I will support the Bulls in the playoffs, but boy did I enjoy seeing them getting smashed at Kings Park.
If only to put an end to the myth that W.Kruger, J.Potgieter, Spies, M.Steyn, Oliver, A.Ndungane and Kirchner should be anywhere close to a Bok jersey.
9 Jul 2012, 13:25 pm
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA)-143: Nzichina, like I do not like nor tolerate HG using the death of one of your/Poppas (I have forgotten) relatives, I do not tolerate you using Aids as a tool to get at these characters. I have seen the face of Aids and its not pretty its tragic! Keep to Rugby and we should all get along!
9 Jul 2012, 13:30 pm
@153
Woodburn Stadium in Sleepy Hollow has the hardest fields I have ever played on.
HG played for Rovers,what a bunch of filthy cheating scum.
9 Jul 2012, 13:32 pm
@Fern is not a stud,he is merely no19(Fern)-156: You stay on the bluff?
9 Jul 2012, 13:37 pm
@Fern is not a stud,he is merely no19(Fern)-156: He he! I take it you didn’t play for Rovers?
Woodburn is looking very sad lately! and the fields are still as hard as anything!
9 Jul 2012, 13:39 pm
“Stormers still SA’s best bet”
I would say that Messrs Jonker, Joubert, Lawrence, Pro Legota et al are the better bet for S. Africa tan the Stormers?
9 Jul 2012, 13:42 pm
@Sharksgirl(Sharksgirl)-158:
Hi SG! Didn’t know that Rovers had a ladies rugby team. What position did HG play for them?
9 Jul 2012, 14:00 pm
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-160:
I don’t know whant to ask Fernly what position he played.
9 Jul 2012, 14:06 pm
@Sharksgirl(Sharksgirl)-161:
Yep! I think your team must end 6th on final log, as then they play Brumbies – let the Bulls play the Saders… Your thoughts…
9 Jul 2012, 14:09 pm
I played for Harlequins,wing and fullback.
9 Jul 2012, 14:10 pm
@Sharksgirl(Sharksgirl)-161: @Fern is not a stud,he is merely no19(Fern)-163:
Congrats on Saturday guys, you are well placed for a visit to Canberra and then possibly Hamilton.
You can win both games
9 Jul 2012, 14:13 pm
@willievz(willievz)-164:
The Sharks were fantastic mate! Wish they were consistent…
@Fern is not a stud,he is merely no19(Fern)-163:
First or Second ladies 15?
9 Jul 2012, 14:15 pm
Gumboots I played the Rovers ladies after the game.
I was known for my good hands:-)
9 Jul 2012, 14:17 pm
@willievz(willievz)-154:
9 Jul 2012, 15:01 pm
I just hope that the Stormers don’t face a New Zealand side in either knockout game.
Those games in Newlands are inveriably home games for the Kiwi sides.
9 Jul 2012, 15:09 pm
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-162: @willievz(willievz)-164: Thank you Willievz, and congratulations on the Conference title! YEs I am hoping to finish 6th I feel more confident in beating the Brumbies away than the Crusaders. Brumbies we have already beat them in Canberra so just a smite more confident facing them. The Chiefs make me reeeeealy nervous! The best team this season imo. But the SR cup will come to SA hopefully!
@Fern is not a stud,he is merely no19(Fern)-163: How long ago did you play? I may have seen you play then
9 Jul 2012, 15:11 pm
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-165: As we do!!! imagine if they played like that the entire season?!
9 Jul 2012, 15:29 pm
Crunch time this weekend. Going to be fantatic.
9 Jul 2012, 15:53 pm
@Sharksgirl(Sharksgirl)-155:
think you’re confused i’ve never mentioned AIDS to get back at anyone on this site
@Fern is not a stud,he is merely no19(Fern)-151:
you type so much shite you can’t remember, somebody tell me how to find previous posts and i’ll post it for you
9 Jul 2012, 16:00 pm
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA)-172: Nzichina if I am confusing you with another of your compatriots I humbly apologise! I remember I read it and left the site immediatelly I was so upset! I don’t know why I remembered it as you maybe I had read a post of yours before and just tied the offending post to it. In that case I apologise!
9 Jul 2012, 16:04 pm
sharksgirl you are thinking of pooper69
9 Jul 2012, 16:06 pm
@Sharksgirl(Sharksgirl)-173:
no problem the AIDS things is Poppa’s domain, I prefer to talk about rugby and Ferns ex pat SAFFA conquests in NZ
9 Jul 2012, 16:15 pm
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA)-172:
you are quite right about fern saying he got into the expat saffa girls in new zealand when he was there…
of course he’ll duck and dive now…
but post such he most definitely did…
9 Jul 2012, 16:19 pm
ufo
go and find that post and prove me wrong
simple
Why would I travel half way around the world and mix with saffas?
I dont even know any saffas in nz
9 Jul 2012, 16:26 pm
NZiC knows it… i know it… you know it…
since when do you worry about the niceties or etiquette of actually knowing the women you boast about online wrt to your macho manly studly prowess…?
never stopped you before apparently…
weak cop out indeed…
doesn’t alter the fact that you bragged about it…
would be a lesson to most of us…
not you apparently…
9 Jul 2012, 16:27 pm
@Fern is not a stud,he is merely no19(Fern)-177: Why would I travel half way around the world and mix with saffas?
Because no-one else would be seen dead with you? (And when one considers some of the ‘choice’ folk who are a stain on our good South African name abroad…I would expect you to find them – bruvvas in ^5 arms you lot probably are)
9 Jul 2012, 16:32 pm
hey UFO nice one buddy
9 Jul 2012, 16:34 pm
Mad eye he he
9 Jul 2012, 16:38 pm
@NZINCHINA(NZINCHINA)-180:
plezsh…
you speak the truth…!
9 Jul 2012, 16:49 pm
nzinchina
dont you need to spend some time with the wife and twins instead. of sitting in front of your pc?
was your dad perhaps a absent father?
if so,break the cycle
if not,dont become one.
9 Jul 2012, 17:34 pm
No doubt that Stormers are SA’s best bet. They don’t only have the advantage of playing at home but have also been the most consistent SA side and have the best defence, most of the ingredients for success. My only concern for them would be if they have to chase the game, their mindset at the moment doesn’t allow them the creativity to do so, mind you most of the SA sides lack this ability.
As I said the other day Culture trumps Strategy every day and the Stormers culture is a little too negative especially considering all the talent they have available.
What has been good to see this year is the fact that JDV has lasted the whole season, he deserves it – a great servant of SA rugby.
10 Jul 2012, 13:02 pm
I hope the Stormers can do it and shake the “choking” tag, this comong from a Lions man! If the Bulls make the might suprise, but without Bakkies/Danie/Vic they will struggle, their pack’s been bullied so far
Pages: « 1 2 3 [4] Show All
Have your say
You must be logged in to post a comment.