Bulls, Sharks need to defy history
16 Jul 2012
JON CARDINELLI looks at how the results of this week’s play-off matches will impact on South Africa’s bid for the Super Rugby title.
The Crusaders beat the Force last Saturday to book a play-off spot. It marks the 14th time the Crusaders have qualified for the knockout rounds in 17 years of Super Rugby. That they have won the title seven times is a well known fact, but perhaps there isn’t a similar appreciation for their overall record in these do-or-die matches.
Over the years the Crusaders have featured in 24 play-off matches, winning 18 and losing six. They’ve never lost a play-off match at home, winning on all 14 occasions. Home advantage is crucial at this stage of the competition, and the record books will confirm that the Cantabrians are (to date) unbeatable on their home turf.
Unlike the other five teams vying for the title, the Crusaders also have a good record on the road. They clearly aren’t daunted by the prospect of travelling to Australia or even to South Africa for a play-off, as last year’s semi-final win in Cape Town will attest. It is because of their great record home and away that they will always be a threat at this stage of the competition.
The same cannot be said of the South African sides. The Bulls won their first Super Rugby title in 2007, and did so away from home. However, they have never won a play-off match in Australasia, and so it’s another trend that will need to be broken if they are going to advance to the semi-finals.
The Sharks are South Africa’s most experienced team when it comes to play-off matches, having made 10 appearances. They have also managed to win Down Under (they beat Queensland in Brisbane back in 1996), but their overall record of games played in that part of the world is not encouraging. In seven play-off games in Australasia, the Sharks have lost six.
The optimist will look at the play-off they’ve won and declare it significant, as the Reds will host the Sharks this Saturday. It’s certainly not as big of a challenge as the one facing the Bulls in Christchurch, as the Reds aren’t nearly as intimidating when it comes to play-off scalps.
2011 saw the Reds winning a semi-final and final at Suncorp Stadium, but those victories were the first and second for the franchise as far as play-off successes are concerned. Prior to that, they had lost three semi-finals, two of which were played in Brisbane.
This will encourage the Sharks. A win this weekend would set up a semi-final showdown with the Stormers. The Cape side won 14 of their 16 league matches, but one of their two losses was to the Sharks.
A special effort would be needed to beat the Stormers at Newlands, but then history indicates that the Cape side has lost more play-offs than they’ve won at this iconic ground. Of the three semi-finals staged in Cape Town, the Stormers have only won one (against the Waratahs in 2010).
The Chiefs have lost some momentum in recent weeks, and unlike the Crusaders they don’t have a reputation for ruthlessness in the play-offs. They will host the highest-ranked qualifier in the semi-finals, and if the Sharks beat the Reds that would see the winner of the Crusaders vs Bulls clash heading to Hamilton.
The Chiefs have only appeared in the play-offs three times, the semi-final win in 2009 marking their sole victory. They will have home advantage in the semis, but the Crusaders have won 10 play-off matches away from home and even two titles. They also beat the Chiefs in Hamilton two weeks ago, so will hold no fear of travelling to Cowbell Country for a crunch match.
Nobody wants to come up against the Crusaders in the play-offs, which is why the Stormers, Chiefs, Reds and Sharks will cheer the Bulls on this Saturday. If the Bulls can achieve the improbable and win in Christchurch, it would eliminate the strongest title contender.
From a South African point of view, a Bulls win in Christchurch and a Sharks win in Brisbane would see three South African teams advancing to the semi-finals, thus increasing the chance of the title returning to this country.
If the Bulls can’t win on Saturday morning, the Stormers will be hoping that the Sharks can knock over the Reds. This would ensure the Stormers host the Sharks (the lowest-ranked qualifier) in the semis and avoid the Crusaders.
But there would still be a possibility of the Stormers hosting the Crusaders at Newlands in the final. It’s a venue where the Cantabrians would fancy their chances having won twice on that ground in 2011.
So while the Stormers may have the week off, they should watch this Saturday’s play-off matches with more than just keen interest.
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410 Comments
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16 Jul 2012, 16:05 pm
@cane(cane)-298:
Because that’s his name.
Capo the poodlenaaier.
The thickest plank in the keo lumberyard.
16 Jul 2012, 16:11 pm
@ryecatcher(ryecatcher)-399: Where proctologists work….hmmmm….you must be taking about XhosaKids mouth?
16 Jul 2012, 16:20 pm
Skeppie @ 402.LOL
16 Jul 2012, 16:30 pm
kiwis complaining about poaching, what a larf
Article By: Tony, Johnson
skysport.co.nz, Sunday, 15 July 2012 2:57 p.m.
SOUTH Africa has three teams into the Super Rugby playoffs, and good on them, but New Zealand’s effort in getting two in, with another pipped right at the finish line, a fourth in the mix until very late in the season, and even the worst team instrumental in a late twist of fortunes for the Australian conference represents a solid effort.
While South Africa have first, fifth and sixth to feel good about, the Chiefs will have a home semi and the Crusaders a home qualifier and they are on course to meet in an all New Zealand semi.
The Hurricanes were just two points out of the top six, and even though the Highlanders were nine points away they were a more than competitive outfit.
Hell even the Blues turned it up on the last couple of weeks, and you can only scratch your heads and wonder how a team that can beat the Bulls and the hitherto playoff bound Brumbies away from home, can be so poor otherwise. Their performance in Canberra was really good, catching the Brumbies right off guard and ultimately dumping them out of the top 6.
The Chiefs have stumbled a bit with successive losses to the Crusaders and Hurricanes, but both involved contentious TMO calls.
There was the Andy Ellis try in Hamilton, which referees bosses have unanimously agreed was a correct call, but there was significant doubt over the one awarded to Dane Coles right at the death in Wellington.
It was an absolute hospital pass for TMO Mike Fraser, and I feel sorry for anyone having to make such a tough call with so much at stake.
We will look at it again as closely and with as much detail as possible on ReUnion Tuesday night but my feeling is that the try should not have been awarded, because there was no conclusive evidence that the ball had been grounded.
To be fair, the Hurricanes probably deserved the win, and there is much to admire about the way they have turned things around after the nastiness of last year, although their achievement through that result was to narrowly miss out themselves and deny the Chiefs top spot.
It hands the coveted number one berth to the Stormers, but I wouldn’t assume on a Cape Town final. The Stormers will need the week off…. they have a beaten up look about them.
On current form it is quite conceivable that the Sharks could go to Brisbane and win, then go back to South Africa and beat the Stormers.
I can’t see the true Crusaders, as against the version that fluffed its way through the second forty in Christchurch, losing to the Bulls this weekend.
The Bulls are not the best of travelers, and have also had a few injury concerns, so baring an upset that would set up an all New Zealand semi in a fortnight.
The winner would probably have to travel to Cape Town, but if the Stormers were to fall over it could well be in New Zealand.
We have to consider the Reds of course. Their 5 pointer over the Waratahs gave them top spot in a woeful Aussie conference, when they were probably thinking 5th or 6th.
They get home advantage over the Sharks, who will of course be without Francois Steyn, who was allowed to join them for the final weeks of the round robin, but not the playoffs. To me this game holds the key to the whole playoff picture. If the Sharks win I would back them to go on and reach the final, but they would threaten the Crusaders air miles tally of last year in doing so.
I’m almost certain there’ll be a New Zealand team in the final, and there’s still a fair chance of a final in New Zealand.
Finally two gripes.
The TMO business is far from satisfactory. Short of some kind of electronic sensor on the goal lines to show if a ball has been grounded then we have to do with the technology currently available.
There needs to be a better process between the refs and TMOs, there need to be more hard and fast protocols about when a try should be awarded or not, and there needs to be more judicious use of the two questions available.
“Try or no try” should not mean, ha ha, your call; thank God it’s not me.
And the benefit of any doubt should go with the defending team.
And about the Aussie conference.
At the start of the season I thought having couple of weak teams would enhance Australia’s chances of having two, maybe even three in the top four, because there were cheap points on offer. To have only one is a pretty sad indictment, and further proof that having 5 teams is justifiable purely on the logistical requirements of the format.
The fault for this lies with their failure to establish a provincial championship to fill the yawning gap in their programme between club and international level, preferring to lean on SANZAR to do the job for them. Instead of developing their own in a second tier, they have bolstered their ranks with fading overseas professionals, and lured naïve young players away from the country of their origin in a flagrant bid to enhance their own stocks.
16 Jul 2012, 16:40 pm
Don’t you just love the way Keo always states his thumbsuck predictions as absolute certainties? Team X will do this and team Y will do that. If anyone bothered to tally up the wee fella’s success rate, they’d find he’s pretty wayward most of the time.
16 Jul 2012, 16:41 pm
Oops, wrong thread.
16 Jul 2012, 17:40 pm
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game)-358:
Well said and accurately constructed:
“358.Heavens Game said:
16 Jul 2012, 14:44 pm
@cane(cane)-346: No, your ABs did not control the match… Craigie did…”
Just to show us that when it comes to looting, the Kiwis are no different than most of the S. Africans, a total lack of shame.
I know few here who still don’t credit the Boks Semi win in 1995 with the benefit df the doubt
16 Jul 2012, 20:13 pm
Clearly rugby is not played in durban
B’cos a certain team is @the top
Now they are champions
My gues is simple win in queensland
Play anyone in semi-final
Win the title not confrence title
16 Jul 2012, 20:38 pm
Chiefs have lost their spark
Two losses in a row
And now a bye,this spells for disaster
Team needs huge uplifment if they are to overcome their setback
Bulls need a leader right now
Forget this year and re-inforce with experience next year
Bakkies,joshua,andries,adriaan,fondse and francois vdm
All these options have experince of the highest quaity and the ability of being captain
Even if it means breaking the bank
Forget about certain players and push the ffg players up the ranks:
Jano
Visser
Lionel-when not injured
Fouche
Venter-is still not ripe enough for a centre(12)@superrugby level
Convert basson into a fullback-slowly imo he’s a better option than aplon(a great wing)
Basson can be similar to jason(england)no one backed him but he grew into the position
16 Jul 2012, 22:20 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-404:
Kiwis?
You mean one person in NZ that wrote a story in a newspaper.
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