Saders’ gloss gives them edge
18 Jul 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the showdown in Christchurch, and writes the Crusaders will build their victory over the Bulls on the slick execution of a simple game plan and not mind-blowing feats.
The team’s strategies are very similar, but the Crusaders’ superior execution makes them favourites to win. It is an enduring fallacy that the Crusaders are a run-from-anywhere team. Indeed they are among the most pragmatic, particularly in their territory, kicking almost as often as the Bulls do. The Crusaders make a tactical kick from the hand on average every 37 seconds, compared with the Bulls who kick on average every 39 seconds.
However, the accuracy with which the Saders kick amplifies their threat (no team has made fewer kick errors). Notably, they seldom kick the ball into touch (second lowest in the comp). This means they are likely to punt into space and ask the Bulls to either run or kick it back, the former allowing them to pressure them into errors while the latter could present broken field opportunities if the kick is poor. Furthermore, given that the Bulls lead the competition in lineout steals, the Crusaders will be determined to pressure their primary kickers into miscued punts that don’t find touch.
Speaking to keo.co.za on Monday, Bulls coach Frans Ludeke highlighted pressure management and pressure creation as being decisive to the outcome. Territorial dominance is important in this regard. The Bulls have the highest average proportion of territory, with the Crusaders third highest. However, neither are high in the possession stakes, ranked 11 and 12th respectively, indicating that they’re adept at forcing errors through pressure defence in the opposition’s territory.
The thing is, neither make errors that often – the Bulls the second best in this regard while the Crusaders are in fourth – and both among the best at restricting errors in or close to their 22m. In light of this, these teams will have to be proactive in ‘making the play’ instead of waiting to feed off their opponents’ errors, which has been the method for both of them against inferior teams.
Penalties have, however, been a problem for the Bulls and if this trend continues they will seriously undermine their cause. They are fourth highest in the competition for conceding a penalty in possession, and do so most often at scrum time. Ominously they lead for conceding them between halfway and their 22m – kickable positions for Dan Carter. In comparison the Crusaders concede few penalties in this area.
The gainline battle will be hotly contested and will be the most important facet of play. For the Bulls to stifle the Crusaders’ momentum and dilute the potency of their back division they have to front on defence. They’ve struggled against sides with powerful carriers and the Crusaders have some of the best in the game, although they will miss the drive Kieran Read gives them. Missed tackles could be terminal against the seven-time champions. The Bulls miss 1 in 6.4 attempts, but encouragingly very few in their own half.
With ball in hand the Bulls Bulls are breaking 1 in 7.2 tackles attempts, the fourth worst in the competition. Beyond that they have often been bullied at the tackle point against the elite sides, meaning their launch platform was seldom adequate to unhinge defences. The Crusaders will be a stern test of them in this department and their main strike runners simply must rise to the occasion.
Strategy-wise there is little differences between these sides. I’ve written before that the Crusaders rarely do mind-blowing things, but rather are generally unbelievably slick in executing a simple game plan. This was the defining characteristic of the Bulls in their championship winning campaigns. They remain a formidable opponent, but lack that refinement and this will be the difference between winning and losing.
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80 Comments
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18 Jul 2012, 11:18 am
Strategy wise THERE is little difference between the two sides. Not THEIR.
18 Jul 2012, 11:19 am
I can’t agree with you Ryan… Crudaders have an offloading game which doesn’t exist in the Bulls team… And the back 3 of the Crusaders are more known for their attacking game than kicking… It does come down to execution but simply better attacking one…
18 Jul 2012, 11:21 am
On the game itself:
The Bulls simply don’t do what they do as well as they used to do it.
Scrums a bit weaker.
Kicking a bit less accurate
Defense a bit less consistent
Collision point domination a bit less effective.
Overall, it results in a team that is way off the performance level that they used to maintain.
If this does not improve, they won’t be able to beat the Crusaders.
18 Jul 2012, 11:23 am
Yes Tac… Bulls dominated the tackle point extremely well… That is gone now…
18 Jul 2012, 11:39 am
this bunch of crusaders have lost the edge they had last year in terms of set-piece domination and on attack are erratic on 1st phase play which used to be a very profitable platform for them to get points. there’s a certain level of unnecessary haste in their execution which hampers their attack which is departure from the patience when executing robbie deans demanded in the past.
their backline, apart from carter and dagg is mediocre…ellis, guilford, crotty, fruean, whitelock…
the bulls can take them!
18 Jul 2012, 12:00 pm
if peyper blows it honest and true
the bulls could/should win it
award rightful penalties from all their cheating and steyn banks 80% plus.. there’s your game right there
if…if… peyper blows it
oh, and does not defer important decisions to the tmo (williamson).
18 Jul 2012, 12:05 pm
Lip gloss?
18 Jul 2012, 12:16 pm
One thing that Bulls do have in their advantage is their underdog status.
Not many are giving them a chance and historically SA sides come out firing when they’ve been dismissed by their own media and fans.
18 Jul 2012, 12:53 pm
finally the kiwi media are having a go at Richie and the Crusaders for being cheats! you Japies will enjoy the article on stuff.co.nz http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/opinion/7296554/Serial-cheats-Crusaders-prosper-by-conning-refs
18 Jul 2012, 13:02 pm
kicking almost as often as the Bulls do. The Crusaders make a tactical kick from the hand on average every 37 seconds, compared with the Bulls who kick on average every 39 seconds.
that makes no sense Ryan… If they kick almost as often as the bulls do, then they would be kicking less ? If they kick every 37 seconds, and the bulls every 39 – then they are kicking more often than the bulls.
18 Jul 2012, 13:03 pm
Mark Reason (son of John) isn’t a Kiwi. He’s a Pom.
18 Jul 2012, 13:13 pm
@THE MAULER(THE MAULER)-2: I agree with your coment Mauler. I watched the whole Bulls \ Lions game again yesterday. Wow, Morne Steyn and Wynand Olivier: when it come to offloading, distribution, just before or after a tackle – it seems that they have never been taught to offload. Most of the Bulls team is actually guilty of this. The problem is that one can’t use the ter, ‘guilty’ as it seems this is exactly what the want to do. I don’t believe this game will be a contest – more of an eye opener for Meyer. However, JJ Engelbrecht has shown his talent – kudos to Meyer for picking that up.
@Jake_White(Jake_White)-10: My china, for an oke that failed to get past std. 8 that is some mighty mathematical statement you have made there. Your om says howzit by the way.
18 Jul 2012, 13:14 pm
What is concerning is that Bulls has lost 4 of their last 6 games – to think that they have been the front runner after about roughly 8 games!
What is interesting is that this 2012 team has made the last 6, last year (2011)with Fourie Du Preez, Matfield and Bakkies, they could not make the last 6!
I wish the Bulls could make it on Saturday, but if I was a betting man I’ll say there chances is about 15% to pull this one off. It the game was on Loftus, then I’ll have given them 50%.
18 Jul 2012, 13:21 pm
@NZMaori(NZMaori)-9: Very interesting, I have suspected this for some time now. Did not realise though that the NZ fans agree, or is it only one lonely voice?
18 Jul 2012, 13:22 pm
This is going to be like a test game.. Would love to see the Bulls take it but the Saders will be the beter team on the day. Not saying that the bulls can’t do it but they playing away from Loftus and the saders will be to strong for them at the end of the day. Hougie will have the biggest game this year and he didn’t impress so far. So this is going to be a weak link for the Bulls. Steyn’s kicking this year was a disaster for the Bulls and the boks. Hope he can deliver this time around. Forwards in favour of the Saders aswell, big battle upfront. Minimise the mistakes and the Bulls might make it. To many mistakes will cost them the game , no bonus points so take what ever points is coming your way. Best of luck to the Bulls.
18 Jul 2012, 13:26 pm
@GermanBok(Marty)-12: GermanBok, You know Wynand and Morne can offload – Morne because his Mrs has just had a baby, and Wynand because hes your lover.
The Crusaders have too many gears for the Bulls in NZ, maybe at Loftus there could have been a miracle but it wont happen now.
Crusaders may even pip the Stormers at Newlands in the final. But that will be a far closer game than this one.
18 Jul 2012, 13:29 pm
@Jake_White(Jake_White)-16: Hehehe
18 Jul 2012, 13:34 pm
@Jake_White(Jake_White)-16: Without Frans and Lambie the Sharks will struggle to beat the Reds in Australia. Stormers are our only hope and I reckon that they will get to the final – then it will be close. Give Wynand this much – his lover was a chick. But she left him at the Baron for a more adventurous sort of experience, which she got…you remember that story.
18 Jul 2012, 13:40 pm
@galileo, roundness, union, coach…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-6:
Gal – why don’t you do a Louis Leyt and promise Jaco a nice gold watch if he performs to instructions.
WTF is a dud SA ref doing reffing this game anyway????????? The Greek is right on this one.
18 Jul 2012, 13:42 pm
@GermanBok(Marty)-18: I remember that story, the chick with the tattoos on her back ? or was that targets ?
This whole conference system has made the competition less entertaining,
half the fun for me is writing on an aussie website that none of their teams made the playoffs. That the Reds qualified is ridiculous,
The comp should have ended – SF1 – Stormers Sharks CPT, SF2 – Crusaders Bulls Christchurch.
18 Jul 2012, 13:42 pm
@NZMaori(NZMaori)-9: It was enough for me to see the name of the scribe. A Pom recently relocated to Kiwiland for some strange reason who shares common passion with Stephen Jones. Not a single article without finding the opportunity to have a go at them.
Crusaders intimidating a T M O, ffs – that made my day, reason-ably hilarious .
18 Jul 2012, 13:44 pm
I suspect that Die Bulle and Jaco flew out on the same flight, and that the Bulle drew straws as to which 2 would lock themselves in the loo at the back of the plane, and poke each other (in the eyes).
Ready made for Saturday……..
18 Jul 2012, 13:46 pm
@Jake_White(Jake_White)-20: Where are the Chiefs in this ideal world, may I enquire? Lost in translation?
18 Jul 2012, 13:46 pm
We have world class coaches on this site who like nothing better than to second guess HM. The Bull will most likely loose because they have something wrong with their tight 5, if they fix hat then it will be a close game. HM will learn zip from this game even if the Bulls win or loose. He will only learn when we play internationals. Supe rugby is only about 70% of the class or quality of international rugby.
18 Jul 2012, 13:46 pm
@Nils(Nils)-21:
Or perhaps, un-reason-ably?
18 Jul 2012, 13:48 pm
@BillTong(BillTong)-25: Reasonably, reasonably – it was nothing short of what was expected from Mark .. ahem … Reason.
It’s like Skop – you know what will be dished put without even bothering to read.
18 Jul 2012, 13:52 pm
Funny thing is, he can reason and write quite well. Strings the words, sentences and paragraphs together quite nicely. It’s just that he seems to be off in the wrong direction, and in the weeds, too often.
Report Card: Good effort, could do better.
18 Jul 2012, 14:02 pm
@Jake_White(Jake_White)-20: I don’t know man. I reckon the format is not a bad one to be honest. If you look at the top six teams that will fight it out in the knock-out phases, I reckon it is probably a fair reflection of the best 6 sides throught the comp. Also, these will all be closely fought. Top 2 – and the Stormers and Chiefs were defintely the top two have a slight advantage with the bye for their group success. I personally am hoping for a Stormers Saders final with 8 tries and the stormers winning with a touchline conversion in extra time – that’s all…
18 Jul 2012, 14:11 pm
@BillTong(BillTong)-27: look, he like Stephen Jones is cunning scribe on a mission. To claim a credibility he tells some things that may be or are indeed true, while conveniently omits things that do not fit in or even contradicts (as if they have never existed) and cleverly focusing all attention solely on selected things thus making an audience to believe that whole world is these things only.
take an example – the woman with acne on her face. She may have pretty eyes or nice voice but Reason will focus exclusively on her acne as if it is the whole face. And other girls may have their own acnes or hare lips, it will not bother him at the slightest.
That is his modus operandi.
18 Jul 2012, 14:16 pm
@NZMaori(NZMaori)-9:
Oh boy, teh NZ media??
lol you mean the pom that seems to be confused about runnning rugby.
@Nils(Nils)-21:
lol
18 Jul 2012, 14:28 pm
Or perhaps his editor just said, “I want something controversial”, and since he now lives just over the hill from Wellington, and would really have like the ‘Canes to make a heroic and sentimental presence in the Finals, he decided to “have a go”.
Just a wind-up piece from someone that is a bit disappointed that is adopted team didn’t quite make it? (With overtones of a Pom that has been severely pissed-off by NZ teams for some time – a bad case of envy).
18 Jul 2012, 14:37 pm
@BillTong(BillTong)-31: His mission is stretching back for years, just google. If he ever says something good about the Blacks and/or flagship of Kiwiland rugby, it is more than compensated tenfold.
so he is like pot of honey for many as “reasonable voice in the desert”.
18 Jul 2012, 14:38 pm
@BillTong(BillTong)-19:
i said if he blows it hones and true, bill
thats all
nothing more nothing less
just honest and true
18 Jul 2012, 14:42 pm
@galileo, roundness, union, coach…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-33:
I thought you were talking to me for a moment but then saw the Tong part. Is Mr Bill Tong from China or Taiwan? Hoe hang dit Whitney?
18 Jul 2012, 14:48 pm
@Airwell(Airwell)-24: You’d be very surprised at the true identity of some of the bloggers here, believe me…
18 Jul 2012, 14:50 pm
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-34:
goed dankie, bill
nee, klink vir my hy’s van kiwiland af
ek het griep, verkoue, my voet en boud beseer… en my bier proe snaaks…
maar ek is nogsteeds well above average
ek hoop net die donderse crusaders kry op hulle karma
18 Jul 2012, 14:51 pm
@willievz(willievz)-35:
Ditto!!!
18 Jul 2012, 14:52 pm
@galileo, roundness, union, coach…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-36:
Nee man! Jy moet vinnig beter word want bier en verkoue gaan nie saam nie.
Dit gaat baie moeilik wees vir die Bulle. Nie onmoontlik nie…
18 Jul 2012, 14:53 pm
Stats mean nothing on the day….just ask the Rebels
Our weakness will be front row again. Saders will target to screw us in this department.
Olivier needs a big game on defence.
We can win this if Steyn can control the game.
18 Jul 2012, 14:55 pm
Greyling should not be starting…too many penalties
18 Jul 2012, 14:56 pm
@willievz(willievz)-35:
are you implying that some world class coaches do as a matter of fact blog here?
wow, if thats true
18 Jul 2012, 14:58 pm
@greatest13gerber(greatest13gerber)-39:
ja, i bet jake and the brumbies worked out ‘all’ their percentages and permutations going into that blues game… and look where that got them.
18 Jul 2012, 14:59 pm
@galileo, roundness, union, coach…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-41: Yes, including current coaches / assistants.
18 Jul 2012, 15:01 pm
@willievz(willievz)-43:
Wynie jy praat uit nou!
18 Jul 2012, 15:02 pm
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-44: Haha!
Busted
18 Jul 2012, 15:02 pm
@willievz(willievz)-43:
What goes on tour stays on tour!!!
18 Jul 2012, 15:03 pm
@willievz(willievz)-45:
It wasn’t such a secret anyway!
18 Jul 2012, 15:07 pm
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-46: Verseker
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-47:
Was it the “w” at the start of my nic?
18 Jul 2012, 15:09 pm
@willievz(willievz)-48:
Naa the ie before the VZ part – easy ne
18 Jul 2012, 15:10 pm
@willievz(willievz)-45: Well then please, for the love of brannas tell me just wtf it is you carry in that bloody laptop bag/black briefcase you drag out with you when you limp out of the tunnel.
I doubt it’s a laptop……
Is it the candy?
Yours in rugby,
Robbie.
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