Saders’ gloss gives them edge
18 Jul 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the showdown in Christchurch, and writes the Crusaders will build their victory over the Bulls on the slick execution of a simple game plan and not mind-blowing feats.
The team’s strategies are very similar, but the Crusaders’ superior execution makes them favourites to win. It is an enduring fallacy that the Crusaders are a run-from-anywhere team. Indeed they are among the most pragmatic, particularly in their territory, kicking almost as often as the Bulls do. The Crusaders make a tactical kick from the hand on average every 37 seconds, compared with the Bulls who kick on average every 39 seconds.
However, the accuracy with which the Saders kick amplifies their threat (no team has made fewer kick errors). Notably, they seldom kick the ball into touch (second lowest in the comp). This means they are likely to punt into space and ask the Bulls to either run or kick it back, the former allowing them to pressure them into errors while the latter could present broken field opportunities if the kick is poor. Furthermore, given that the Bulls lead the competition in lineout steals, the Crusaders will be determined to pressure their primary kickers into miscued punts that don’t find touch.
Speaking to keo.co.za on Monday, Bulls coach Frans Ludeke highlighted pressure management and pressure creation as being decisive to the outcome. Territorial dominance is important in this regard. The Bulls have the highest average proportion of territory, with the Crusaders third highest. However, neither are high in the possession stakes, ranked 11 and 12th respectively, indicating that they’re adept at forcing errors through pressure defence in the opposition’s territory.
The thing is, neither make errors that often – the Bulls the second best in this regard while the Crusaders are in fourth – and both among the best at restricting errors in or close to their 22m. In light of this, these teams will have to be proactive in ‘making the play’ instead of waiting to feed off their opponents’ errors, which has been the method for both of them against inferior teams.
Penalties have, however, been a problem for the Bulls and if this trend continues they will seriously undermine their cause. They are fourth highest in the competition for conceding a penalty in possession, and do so most often at scrum time. Ominously they lead for conceding them between halfway and their 22m – kickable positions for Dan Carter. In comparison the Crusaders concede few penalties in this area.
The gainline battle will be hotly contested and will be the most important facet of play. For the Bulls to stifle the Crusaders’ momentum and dilute the potency of their back division they have to front on defence. They’ve struggled against sides with powerful carriers and the Crusaders have some of the best in the game, although they will miss the drive Kieran Read gives them. Missed tackles could be terminal against the seven-time champions. The Bulls miss 1 in 6.4 attempts, but encouragingly very few in their own half.
With ball in hand the Bulls Bulls are breaking 1 in 7.2 tackles attempts, the fourth worst in the competition. Beyond that they have often been bullied at the tackle point against the elite sides, meaning their launch platform was seldom adequate to unhinge defences. The Crusaders will be a stern test of them in this department and their main strike runners simply must rise to the occasion.
Strategy-wise there is little differences between these sides. I’ve written before that the Crusaders rarely do mind-blowing things, but rather are generally unbelievably slick in executing a simple game plan. This was the defining characteristic of the Bulls in their championship winning campaigns. They remain a formidable opponent, but lack that refinement and this will be the difference between winning and losing.
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80 Comments
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18 Jul 2012, 15:12 pm
@galileo, roundness, union, coach…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-42:
haha agree.
Its going require massive game from Spies as well – a game he has not shown for a while.
18 Jul 2012, 15:12 pm
Saders forever – God wills it !
18 Jul 2012, 15:17 pm
@willievz(willievz)-43:
wow
there’s food for thought.
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-44:
@willievz(willievz)-45:
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-50:
hehehe
18 Jul 2012, 15:21 pm
@greatest13gerber(greatest13gerber)-51:
yip
if they can bring the same game they brought against the crusaders in the loftus clash, then anythings possible.
18 Jul 2012, 15:35 pm
@willievz(willievz)-43:
i think a really great idea would be for keo to get some guest coaches/assistants/players/administrators to blog under the real identities every so often.
that would be nice.
18 Jul 2012, 15:43 pm
Ewen McKenzie blogs on smh.com.au (rugbyheaven). Writes some of the best and insightful columns going around…
18 Jul 2012, 15:44 pm
Wow Ryan! Now that is an article! Using stats, comparing the teams and coming up with some insightful conclusions. Finally you are becoming a journalist! And you seem to be learning a bit about rugby too
18 Jul 2012, 15:49 pm
@galileo, roundness, union, coach…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-54:
reality is…massive task to repeat Loftus performance on Saders home!
massive favourites
18 Jul 2012, 15:57 pm
@BillTong(BillTong)-56:
will look out for it, thanks
@greatest13gerber(greatest13gerber)-58:
absolutely.
bulls are underdogs through and through
18 Jul 2012, 16:14 pm
To be honest the Bulls – even with Matfield and company – were never strong tourists. Almost invincible at home yes. Will be very tough.
18 Jul 2012, 16:25 pm
@bokfan1(bokfan1)-57: agree. better effort there Ryanster! you’re on the better track here.
18 Jul 2012, 18:38 pm
20% chance for a Bulls win only if God wills
18 Jul 2012, 19:01 pm
Have a very funny feeling that the Bulls are going to take this one… Low key prep… total underdogs… Coming off a decent win but not a walkover…
This will be a bolter I shityounot.
18 Jul 2012, 19:21 pm
@willievz(willievz)-43: And players, mostly ex. I know of 2 well known ex Sharks/Natal players that do blog here…
18 Jul 2012, 19:45 pm
@9 that article is shameless slander. The writer needs a prescription of uppers & twice weekly session with a head doctor. FuckThat
19 Jul 2012, 00:41 am
@NZMaori(NZMaori)-9: Nothing new in this article. This has been known and documented for ages. Even many kiwis admit this is the case. He isn’t called McCheat for nothing.
19 Jul 2012, 02:51 am
Ultimately the Crusaders only made it to this point on the back of some dodgey decisions made by game officials. They do have one massive advantage though and that is called ‘home town advantage’…and a weaker than normal Bulls team of course. If the bully boys play in pink it will make their task even easier
End of the day it will hinge on the Bulls ability to get past the dummy runners and blockers around the scrum and how fast they can get Carter. Put pressure on him and half the battle is won.
19 Jul 2012, 03:38 am
Lets put the record straight Maori boy
Mark Reason is not now , and nor will, he ever be
The NZ Media
He is in fact a Fairfax journalist infected with a hatred of NZ rugby caused by jealousitis
His father John Reason was , a well known carrier of the disease
and the apple sure hasn’t fallen far from the tree
I’ll take his article for what it is
Nothing more then another cheap shot
19 Jul 2012, 04:09 am
Hahaha, poor little keewee sader boys incensed by someone pointing out some cheating facts about their team. Personally I think mr reason has it spot on and if you read some of the comments on “stuff” so do a lot of non sader keeewees. Cheating whinging f uks!
19 Jul 2012, 04:13 am
Tackler @ 11, yup mr reason is a Pom just like you are a jarpie
same immigration status hey?
19 Jul 2012, 04:15 am
@Slartibartfast(Slartibartfast)-67:
Will you be going to the Reds v Sharks game Slarti?
19 Jul 2012, 04:38 am
@Te Rangatira(Te Rangatira)-71:
Nah Ranga, I went last weekend when they played the Worrytahs. Thought I will stay home this weekend and that way I can watch both matches ‘live’.
19 Jul 2012, 04:39 am
@whatever(whatever)-70:
They both call NZ home now!
19 Jul 2012, 06:56 am
A global greeting to all…
Good morning, Good afternoon and Good evening…
19 Jul 2012, 07:22 am
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-74:
Howzit!
19 Jul 2012, 07:49 am
I see snoeksiet went a pesh it again last night.Seems like pooper had another breakdown,hopefuLly he won’t be back.
19 Jul 2012, 07:57 am
@Fern is not a stud,he is merely no19(Fern)-76:
Soos snot op ‘n wolkombers, not going to get rid of him quickly I think!
19 Jul 2012, 08:00 am
Slarti
Die ouens het hom n d rol in die hare gedraai:-)
19 Jul 2012, 09:08 am
@Jake_White(Jake_White)-10: Are these kicking stats right? If two teams are kicking every ~40 seconds then someone is kicking every 20 seconds during the game. That sounds like football to me.
Or is it based on time in possession?
19 Jul 2012, 09:31 am
Hate it when ppl try establish these jaundiced unfounded parallels btwn Bulls & Saders.Then try use sum arbitrary statistic to compound the whole thing.BS
Some principles of rugby are clear and simple.Especially upfront,your front 8 must establish some measure of physicality in order to establish a platform where one will launch attacks and also on D stifle momentum.That’s where it ends with Bulls/Saders conundrum.
The backline play or variation is non existent at Bulls.The most enterprising piece of play is the “switch” btwn Olivier/Steyn in midfield which is as telegraphed as they come.Depend so much on the momentum achieved by ball carriers Potgieter especially bt he runs into walls,losing his feet too easily and there in largely nothing as that’s efficient against quality teams.
I don’t see likes of Ndungane/Basson,Kirchner doubling up and playmakers in various phases of play as Guilford,Dagg do.Their variation of play,option taking and being GENUINE linebreaking threats is part of Saders mantra/strategy.The barnstorming runs from Freaun in midfield as well as the support lines ran by the entire team especially backs is astounding.One hardly sees Saders kick up and under as FIRST option of attack.Carter takes the ball up flat and straight unlike the crabbing Morne.
The loosies especially Read and McCaw have great skills in contact & vary their approach often offloading,passing at critical times rather than bash it up aplenty ala Potgieter,Spies and co.
Sorry I just don’t see the parrallels/comparisons so its not just GLOSS or better EFFICIENCY.Saders just have a better set of players,with superior skillset and better pattern of play.
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