Sharper side will take Brisbane spoils
18 Jul 2012
JON CARDINELLI analyses Saturday’s clash in the Queensland capital and writes that the winner may not be the side that makes the big plays, but rather the team that makes the fewest errors.
It may seem an obvious statement to make, but then the Reds and Sharks have been anything but consistent this season.
Both have scraped through to the play-offs despite some woeful performances where the inconsistencies have cost them the result. There have also be instances where these teams have mixed the accurate with the erratic, and have still managed to come out on top.
If this is to be accepted, then what insight can statistics provide? Indeed, both teams should be expected to play more conservatively in a knockout match than they have in recent rounds. Four-try bonus points are no longer a priority, and this could be reflected in either team’s approach.
But there is something to be gained by examining the stats of the Round 4 clash between these two teams. There is also value in the statistics when you look at how the referee for this match, Jonathan Kaplan, has officiated over the course of the 2012 season.
If we look at who is available for the coming match, and who was available for that Round 4 game in Durban, there are key differences but also many similarities. The Sharks will be without Pat Lambie this weekend, who played flyhalf in that previous game. The Reds are likely to play the same halfback pairing of Will Genia and Ben Lucas, as Quade Cooper is not available until a possible semi-final. The big omission for Queenslanders on this occasion will be that of lock James Horwill.
The Sharks won the Round 4 match 27-22 after trailing 17-10 at half-time. It was a game where the Sharks started badly, but found form as the match progressed. It was also a game where the Reds were hampered by a number of injuries throughout and were forced to finish with scrumhalf Genia in the flyhalf channel.
According to ruckingoodstats.com, both teams were guilty of many turnovers on that occasion, with the Reds (19) worse than the Sharks (14). The Reds made 10 handling errors on the day, and this obviously impacted on their ability to capitalise on a superior amount of possession (69% in the first half and 53% in the second). They may have also have edged the game but for some woeful goal-kicking where their kickers missed three attempts at posts.
Lambie was flawless in front of goal, converting all five attempts. But while the Sharks will miss Lambie’s influence in the side, it must be noted that he has since been shifted to fullback with Freddie Michalak coming in at No 10. And apart from lending the Sharks some impetus from that flyhalf position, Michalak has also maintained an impressive goal-kicking record (81%) over the course of the season.
If the Reds impede this Saturday, the Sharks will feel confident that Michalak can make the hosts pay on the scoreboard. Ruckingoodstats reveals that of the 15 teams that played Super Rugby this season, the Reds were ranked third for penalties conceded (they conceded 10.6 penalties per match on average). The Sharks are ranked seventh overall in this respect.
Breaking it down further, the Reds are the biggest culprits when in possession, conceding more penalties than any of the other 14 teams. And looking at the rucks and mauls, the Reds are ranked second for the most penalties conceded.
Scrums aren’t much better, with the Reds conceding the third most penalties. The Sharks will have noted this weakness, and as they boast one of the strongest and most disciplined scrums, they will surely look to target the Reds in this area.
At the other set piece, however, it is the Reds that are more threatening. They are ranked second in the competition for winning the lineout against the throw. Considering their weakness at the scrum, they should look to disrupt the Sharks at the lineout.
While the Reds have conceded a number of penalties while in possession, and a fair few at the breakdown, they are proficient in making breakdown steals (3.9 per match). They have some specialists in Liam Gill and Beau Robinson, as well as hooker Saia Faingaa, who excel in this respect.
It will also help that Kaplan is officiating this fixture, as the South African is one of the more lenient referees at the ruck and maul (Kaplan is ranked 15th out of 19 Super Rugby referees in terms of penalties awarded in these areas). This may allow the Reds to maintain possession a bit more than usual, and also have more of a crack at the breakdown turnover when they’re defending.
But where Kaplan is far less generous is at the scrum, and as the superior team in this area, the Sharks should benefit. Kaplan is ranked fifth when it comes to infringements awarded at this set piece.
He also tends to award more penalties than free kicks and there are only four refs in the competition who offer fewer scrum resets than Kaplan. In short, if the Reds impede or fail to set properly, Kaplan is unlikely to give them another crack. The Sharks have conceded the fewest scrum infringements in the tournament.
Suncorp Stadium is often described as the perfect ground on which to play running rugby, and it’s true that both sides have a penchant for a fast-paced approach. But the occasion may demand a tighter, less risky game plan, and the margin for error will be small.
The Reds may not have Cooper available for this play-off, but they do have a reliable goal-kicker in Mike Harris (who has a 77% success rate). It is for this reason the Sharks will also need to ensure they don’t impede within range of the goal posts.
Their big banker will be Michalak, who will be tasked with turning Reds infringements and errors into points.
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629 Comments
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18 Jul 2012, 05:28 am
Kaplan will have a huge influence on this game. He hammered the reds in their last game with him in charge. I doubt the Aussies are happy about this.
Hopefully he swallows his whistle and lets the game flow for once.
18 Jul 2012, 06:13 am
Can’t compare the two teams to the two teams that played in R4, both improved substantially since then. Reds know how to break down a side in 80 minutes but this will only happen if the Sharks allow it.
As for Suncorp, lots of rain last week up to today and light falls predicted for the rest of the week. Won’t be muddy but will be soft underfoot and probably murky/slippery ball conditions.
18 Jul 2012, 06:16 am
Reds haven’t been at their best – Sharks have only been at their best at KP. Let’s sit back and enjoy………
18 Jul 2012, 06:17 am
@jeest(jeest)-1:
Most Aussies take refs in their stride with the eception of Phillip Kearns who always have something to say about them. Then again, it is the Reds and he will be happy if the Reds get nailed…
18 Jul 2012, 07:14 am
@Slartibartfast(Slartibartfast)-4: Yeah that’s a fair point – they rarely whinge about the refs….which surprises me as they don’t seem to have any of their own so they are usually getting shafted.
Anyway – lets hope it’s a good, free flowing game and both sides turn up
18 Jul 2012, 07:41 am
@jeest(jeest)-5:
With limited impact by the ref and TMO
PS They have Stevie Walsh…
18 Jul 2012, 07:47 am
more Koos
18 Jul 2012, 07:58 am
@trupisero(trupisero)-7:
Howzit Trup, hoe hang dinge?
18 Jul 2012, 08:02 am
@Slartibartfast(Slartibartfast)-6: kaplan’s the ref & goddard’s the TMO…
kaplan is a “momentum” referee, he awards freebie points to the team going forward especially in the red zone (excuse the pun) teams are almost assured of 3 points as kaplan summarily pulls out his hand whether an infringement is visible or not.
18 Jul 2012, 08:04 am
Happy 94th Madiba…!!
May there be many more for you…!!
18 Jul 2012, 08:09 am
@Transformation(Transformation)-9:
Momentum ref, I like that!
So you saying with the stronger pack the Sharks should be ok?
18 Jul 2012, 08:23 am
Momentum ref..interesting. I’m gonna use that
18 Jul 2012, 08:25 am
Nelson Mandela spent 27 years in jail: that is approximately:
* 324 months
* 9720 days
It’s an awful long time and precious time that he cannot get back to invest in his children and their children. Today Madiba is loved all over the world, but I think we will insult the man if we don’t reflect on what he fought for: he just believed that every man is equal; its that simple.
Today is a commercialised icon and at times you would think he fought FOR Afrikaners the way they carry on, but we will miss the point if we’re not careful.
We idolise Madiba but violate the principles he stood (and continue to stand) for and see those that pursue justice and fairness (yes even around us) as the enemy (or someone with a hidden agenda)
In this regard Afrikaners and indeed the broader white population of SA that continue to hog the resources of the country need to have a change of heart. We are all winners if we are all better off.
18 Jul 2012, 08:29 am
the Sharks have more than a handful of Springboks including some Key players like Alberts and Bismark and JPP.
The Reds have more than a handful of Wallabies including some key players like Genia, Higginbotham and Digg-me.
So will this be a forerunner of international form to come??
Probably not.
The Sharks, full of talented players as they are, have this season lacked that special element that distinguishes a Championship team from playoff hopefuls.
Players like Jean DeVilliers, Eben Etsebeth and Joe Pieterson.
18 Jul 2012, 08:32 am
Sheriff, the same Madiba who blew up churches etc? without afrikaners you would still be a “Harry die strandloper” and you chick would still be a “Saartjie Baartman”
18 Jul 2012, 08:33 am
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-14:
Absolutely…
18 Jul 2012, 08:34 am
@Sheriff(Sheriff)-13:
Good post…
18 Jul 2012, 08:35 am
@Sheriff(Sheriff)-13: That’s a lovely speech.
More handouts please…….
You are falling prey to the 90% truth fallacy. Yes he is a great man and must be applauded and respected for what he did (and didn’t do) but to use his name as an excuse to expect those that have to simply give it back is disappointing and indicative of the very sense of entitlement that pervades this country and holds many of those same “excluded” back from trying to make it themselves because they would rather someone gives it to them.
18 Jul 2012, 08:36 am
mighty Reds by 16…
18 Jul 2012, 08:41 am
JK is the worst ref in the comp as far as im concerned
might be to the sharks detriment
JK is gonna be the biggest difference in this game
18 Jul 2012, 08:41 am
@Slartibartfast(Slartibartfast)-4:
In the years before I put the volume on Mute, Kearns was my favourite, always bad mouthed Kaplan just to end up with an egg on his face when watching the replays, him and that prxx Rod Kafer, slowed down a beat with their drivel but not sure now
@Transformation(Transformation)-9:
Wow
And what type of a referee is Pro Legota?
Or that TMO Christie something, please enlighten us!
18 Jul 2012, 08:43 am
@Papoose(papaown)-12:
Carefull Transie’s royalties are excessive…
Is he also a hometown ref because if nothing those Qldrs are a roudy bunch in there?
18 Jul 2012, 08:44 am
@grant10(grant100)-15:
Is this the same liberal Grant __________ ; I nearly typed your surname there.
It seems you have been unmasked as a white supremacist after all; I can assure you I am not surprised at all
I see you’re getting rather personal; I suggest you avoid that – my post is merely an ‘opinion post’
The crux of my post is that we must not violate Madiba (and many others’) principles
18 Jul 2012, 08:47 am
@Hondo(Hondo)-21:
His new favorite is Jewberrr
18 Jul 2012, 08:47 am
@jacoshark(jacoshark)-20:
The Beast and Ndungane will be the biggest difference makers for the Sharks IMO unless they keep them off the line-up
Few dropped passes by Mvovo may have a great impact too
18 Jul 2012, 08:48 am
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-18:
I don’t really expect you to understand what I wrote in that post.
You’re just too immature…
18 Jul 2012, 08:50 am
@Sheriff(Sheriff)-13:
“In this regard Afrikaners and indeed the broader white population of SA that continue to hog the resources of the country need to have a change of heart. We are all winners if we are all better off.”
Give, give, give.
Demand, demand, demand.
Expect… freebies… expect… freebies…
Commie bastardo
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-18:
“… but to use his name as an excuse to expect those that have to simply give it back …”
Give what back exactly? Who allegedly had it before? There were no companies, there was no knowledge of mineral wealth, there was no ownership or demarcation of property, there was no currency………. what is there to give back?
With the exception of the San/Khoi (whatever they are called these days) our ancestors were are all immigrants to this land…. so I don’t get how some feel more “entitled” than others….
18 Jul 2012, 08:56 am
Brisbane has had A LOT of rain over the last few weeks. So the field won’t be hard and fast like the Reds are used to.
This could be a good thing for the Sharks!
18 Jul 2012, 08:56 am
@Sheriff(Sheriff)-23:
Don’t know if you aware that this is the imposter Grant10 and not the (in)famous anti-Fat Boys Club cheerleader who went on a self imposed exile from Keo-Land
18 Jul 2012, 09:04 am
@Sheriff(Sheriff)-26: No, the immaturity rests on you I’m afraid. You see, I understand it perfectly.
I had a fairly long and extremely well constructed rebuttal typed out but really, I’m not about to cast pearls before swine.
The fact is, I have a fair amount. If you want it you’ll have to take it. I’m one of those 500 000 people who earn above R180 000 per annum in this country (according to stats from SARS from some years ago) In fact, I’m probably in a bracket of a lot fewer people than that.This is self generated, not a salary.
Collectively we support more than 15 million people of welfare benefits in SA.
Don’t preach to me.
18 Jul 2012, 09:06 am
@wooden spoon(wooden spoon)-27: Yes i know, I read the article and in a way you are correct but that’s a whole different argument and beyond the willingness of those( who it doesn’t suit to believe) to comprehend
18 Jul 2012, 09:06 am
@wooden spoon(wooden spoon)-27:
Actually not hey?
I’m giving my opinion about a situation in our country. I don’t want anything that you and those like you can give.
You need to remember that favourable conditions (as created by those in Govt) existed generations ago for whites to accumulate wealth. Education was geared towards ensuring that we have cheap black labour and white management.
Today’s generation is arrogant because they feel they worked hard for it and to an extent they have and continue to do so. However they forget how it is that they could attend university, own a farm and so on. Apartheid was an economic system justified on self-made religious grounds. To this Afrikaners still yearn for some form of consolation, they still think they are somehow ‘called by God to do this and that…’
And don’t think I’m in favour of the type of corruption we see today; it is just as repulsive as the corruption of the Nats
Mate don’t be so impressed by ‘things’, you cannot take it to the grave
18 Jul 2012, 09:08 am
@wpstormerbok(wpstormerbok)-29:
I’m now not sure if you are referring to the grant that used to blog here for years or is this someone pretending to be him?
18 Jul 2012, 09:09 am
Just bought 4 tickets for the Stormers semi-final. Hope the Sharks are the opponents.
18 Jul 2012, 09:10 am
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-30: Correction “15 million people ON welfare….”
18 Jul 2012, 09:10 am
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-30:
Casting pearls before swine, you say.
Tell me son: are you white? Give me your age bracket so we can have a meaningful conversation.
18 Jul 2012, 09:10 am
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-30: Only 500 000 people earn above R180,000??? Are you kidding me?
Thats scary.
18 Jul 2012, 09:12 am
@Sheriff(Sheriff)-33:
Yes, the one claiming to be Grant10 is actually Grant100. And he’s a racist.
18 Jul 2012, 09:13 am
@wpstormerbok(wpstormerbok)-38:
Ok, thanks for pointing out mate
18 Jul 2012, 09:16 am
@Sheriff(Sheriff)-39:
All good.
Now to sit back and follow the interesting debate between you and Stormersboy while I pretend to be hard at work
18 Jul 2012, 09:16 am
with Sheriff it ultimately all comes down to race, proved time and time again on this forum. No use engaging with him.
On another, separate, note:
SHARKS!
18 Jul 2012, 09:17 am
@wpstormerbok(wpstormerbok)-40: really – you find it interesting?
18 Jul 2012, 09:19 am
Twat 1000 Mandela had nothing to do with that Church bombing… But you keep telling yourself that…
18 Jul 2012, 09:21 am
@Taahirah(Taahirah)-37: That’s an old stat, about 7 or 8 years old but yes. If you consider that if 500 000 earn(ed) over R180k p.a. (basically still nothing) then the number earning over, say R500k p.a. is probably less than 50 000. Which is where it really starts to mess with your mind.
18 Jul 2012, 09:21 am
@wpstormerbok(wpstormerbok)-40:
I’m hoping for it to be meaningful dialogue
18 Jul 2012, 09:22 am
If the Sharks keep it tight and keep the possesion it could go their way… Heres hoping…
18 Jul 2012, 09:23 am
@Sheriff(Sheriff)-36: “Give me your age bracket so we can have a meaningful conversation.”
There you go again. Give give give.
18 Jul 2012, 09:27 am
@wooden spoon(wooden spoon)-42:
Yes
It’s 1000 times better than scrolling by mindless insults that’s been flooding the interweb station known as Keo.
Around here they don’t moderate remember, they assess, and ignore.
18 Jul 2012, 09:28 am
@wooden spoon(wooden spoon)-41:
Are you not a legal guy?
I am not.
You should relish the opportunity to show off your reasoning skills – let’s see what you’ve got. It’s really the way of a coward to say : ‘ With Sheriff it comes down to race …’
See I write about these things. I put it in the open. You think about them privately. I articulate it.
And we have to say that the tough stuff. It’s tough to think things through and then articulate. It’s far easier to go with mainstream (mostly white in SA) thinking and then to irrationally try and defend that which you treasure but have not quite defined yet.
18 Jul 2012, 09:29 am
Sheriff, white students don’t burn down schools & universities. White students don’t go jumping on desks and start pissing on chicks at varsity during a strike …. they WANT to learn … you can’t force anyone to attend classes and actually learn something … – can’t blame apartheid for that!
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