Sharper side will take Brisbane spoils
18 Jul 2012
JON CARDINELLI analyses Saturday’s clash in the Queensland capital and writes that the winner may not be the side that makes the big plays, but rather the team that makes the fewest errors.
It may seem an obvious statement to make, but then the Reds and Sharks have been anything but consistent this season.
Both have scraped through to the play-offs despite some woeful performances where the inconsistencies have cost them the result. There have also be instances where these teams have mixed the accurate with the erratic, and have still managed to come out on top.
If this is to be accepted, then what insight can statistics provide? Indeed, both teams should be expected to play more conservatively in a knockout match than they have in recent rounds. Four-try bonus points are no longer a priority, and this could be reflected in either team’s approach.
But there is something to be gained by examining the stats of the Round 4 clash between these two teams. There is also value in the statistics when you look at how the referee for this match, Jonathan Kaplan, has officiated over the course of the 2012 season.
If we look at who is available for the coming match, and who was available for that Round 4 game in Durban, there are key differences but also many similarities. The Sharks will be without Pat Lambie this weekend, who played flyhalf in that previous game. The Reds are likely to play the same halfback pairing of Will Genia and Ben Lucas, as Quade Cooper is not available until a possible semi-final. The big omission for Queenslanders on this occasion will be that of lock James Horwill.
The Sharks won the Round 4 match 27-22 after trailing 17-10 at half-time. It was a game where the Sharks started badly, but found form as the match progressed. It was also a game where the Reds were hampered by a number of injuries throughout and were forced to finish with scrumhalf Genia in the flyhalf channel.
According to ruckingoodstats.com, both teams were guilty of many turnovers on that occasion, with the Reds (19) worse than the Sharks (14). The Reds made 10 handling errors on the day, and this obviously impacted on their ability to capitalise on a superior amount of possession (69% in the first half and 53% in the second). They may have also have edged the game but for some woeful goal-kicking where their kickers missed three attempts at posts.
Lambie was flawless in front of goal, converting all five attempts. But while the Sharks will miss Lambie’s influence in the side, it must be noted that he has since been shifted to fullback with Freddie Michalak coming in at No 10. And apart from lending the Sharks some impetus from that flyhalf position, Michalak has also maintained an impressive goal-kicking record (81%) over the course of the season.
If the Reds impede this Saturday, the Sharks will feel confident that Michalak can make the hosts pay on the scoreboard. Ruckingoodstats reveals that of the 15 teams that played Super Rugby this season, the Reds were ranked third for penalties conceded (they conceded 10.6 penalties per match on average). The Sharks are ranked seventh overall in this respect.
Breaking it down further, the Reds are the biggest culprits when in possession, conceding more penalties than any of the other 14 teams. And looking at the rucks and mauls, the Reds are ranked second for the most penalties conceded.
Scrums aren’t much better, with the Reds conceding the third most penalties. The Sharks will have noted this weakness, and as they boast one of the strongest and most disciplined scrums, they will surely look to target the Reds in this area.
At the other set piece, however, it is the Reds that are more threatening. They are ranked second in the competition for winning the lineout against the throw. Considering their weakness at the scrum, they should look to disrupt the Sharks at the lineout.
While the Reds have conceded a number of penalties while in possession, and a fair few at the breakdown, they are proficient in making breakdown steals (3.9 per match). They have some specialists in Liam Gill and Beau Robinson, as well as hooker Saia Faingaa, who excel in this respect.
It will also help that Kaplan is officiating this fixture, as the South African is one of the more lenient referees at the ruck and maul (Kaplan is ranked 15th out of 19 Super Rugby referees in terms of penalties awarded in these areas). This may allow the Reds to maintain possession a bit more than usual, and also have more of a crack at the breakdown turnover when they’re defending.
But where Kaplan is far less generous is at the scrum, and as the superior team in this area, the Sharks should benefit. Kaplan is ranked fifth when it comes to infringements awarded at this set piece.
He also tends to award more penalties than free kicks and there are only four refs in the competition who offer fewer scrum resets than Kaplan. In short, if the Reds impede or fail to set properly, Kaplan is unlikely to give them another crack. The Sharks have conceded the fewest scrum infringements in the tournament.
Suncorp Stadium is often described as the perfect ground on which to play running rugby, and it’s true that both sides have a penchant for a fast-paced approach. But the occasion may demand a tighter, less risky game plan, and the margin for error will be small.
The Reds may not have Cooper available for this play-off, but they do have a reliable goal-kicker in Mike Harris (who has a 77% success rate). It is for this reason the Sharks will also need to ensure they don’t impede within range of the goal posts.
Their big banker will be Michalak, who will be tasked with turning Reds infringements and errors into points.
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629 Comments
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18 Jul 2012, 17:13 pm
@WP Till I Die(WP-Forever)-492:
Indeed.
I used to love Lagavulin.
Now you can by it everywhere and bankers and real estate agents are drinking it.
A shame really.
18 Jul 2012, 17:14 pm
@WP Till I Die(WP-Forever)-498:
Awarded World’s Best Blended Whisky at the annual Whisky Magazine World Whisky Awards a few months ago.
18 Jul 2012, 17:15 pm
@Dusky(Dusky)-489: John Daniels is labeled as Tennessee Whiskey. Technically it is a Bourbon but only Bourbon produced in Kentucky can be called bourbon mostly. Jim Beam is a true Bourbon. Even though it’s made the same way as John Daniels.
Like Champagne. We make it here, it’s pretty much the same stuff but we can’t call it that.
18 Jul 2012, 17:15 pm
@CharlesM(CharlesM)-499:
You right mate! Some very bad days yes…
18 Jul 2012, 17:17 pm
@Jeraldjay(Jeraldjay)-490:
Really, its not available there?
18 Jul 2012, 17:18 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-503:
John?
Jacks brother?
18 Jul 2012, 17:19 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-439: He was a **** boxer, had two punches in his arsenal. Useful if you’re a bouncer who needs to intimidate students and drunks, but everyone he fought who was any good whipped him (I think he had 2 or 3 wins against cans, but that was it)
18 Jul 2012, 17:19 pm
@Stawm(Stawm)-506:
18 Jul 2012, 17:19 pm
@WP Till I Die(WP-Forever)-492: If it’s grain spirits then I’m more of a “bourbon” guy than a Scotch/Irish/Japanese drinker. Takes the edge off that bitterness.
That and some Appletiser.
18 Jul 2012, 17:20 pm
@Dusky(Dusky)-478: Or paint “I hate Nascar” on the side like the Top gear dudes did lol
18 Jul 2012, 17:21 pm
@Jeraldjay(Jeraldjay)-490:
They have Bundaberg.
Best rum in the world.
Apart from Mount *** from Barbados.
18 Jul 2012, 17:22 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-509:
I find a very mellow, aged joint takes the edge off anything!
18 Jul 2012, 17:22 pm
@Stawm(Stawm)-505:
No Red Heart is not available there.
Bundaberg is their rum of choice.
18 Jul 2012, 17:22 pm
@Stawm(Stawm)-506: “He may be Jack to you son, but if you’ve known him as long as i have you get to call him John.”
Scent of a Woman. Lt Col Frank Slade ( Al Pacino)…..
18 Jul 2012, 17:23 pm
@Stawm(Stawm)-512: Malawi Gold 5 Year-Old
18 Jul 2012, 17:23 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-501: Yea but do they enjoy it?
18 Jul 2012, 17:25 pm
Right – someone is getting fired today. Tired of this now.
18 Jul 2012, 17:25 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-515: he he he…Malawi Gold….oh the memories….:-)
18 Jul 2012, 17:25 pm
Unless they drink it neat, Rum “connoisseurs” set my bullshit detector off. Along with 5 parts Coca Cola, who cares what side of the slope the sugar cane was grown?
18 Jul 2012, 17:25 pm
wine, brandy, whiskey, beer, bourbon, schnapps, tequila, cane, vodka and Guatemala tea, fermented rotten grapes, wheat, barley, hops, cane
catch a load of these snob noses, they drown themselves in alcohol as if its a man made exotic flight of exclusive fantasy.. meanwhile its legalized drug addiction and they wanna make it into an extravagant escapade of high society activity..
then they wanna pretend they are the moral custodians of civilization, when back at the bourbon ranch they nothing but a bunch of sophisticated savages getting high (or low) on grog…
18 Jul 2012, 17:26 pm
@Jeraldjay(Jeraldjay)-513:
Those poor ba st ar ds!
18 Jul 2012, 17:26 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-514:
Careful, you might get our resident Al Pacino groupie going!!!
18 Jul 2012, 17:26 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-511:
Nice Gunth. We definitely on the same page when it comes to rum.
Mount G ay is the best. Brought a bottle back and kept it for a while but then all resistance crumbled.
18 Jul 2012, 17:27 pm
@fitz1ella(fitz1ella)-520: Not all that different to your highfalutin snobbery when it comes to specific types of cable-knit sweaters.
18 Jul 2012, 17:27 pm
@Dusky(Dusky)-518:
If you’ve got memories of Malawi Gold, it wasnt Malawi Gold!
jk
18 Jul 2012, 17:28 pm
@Stawm(Stawm)-522: Who is that?
Whoo-ah
18 Jul 2012, 17:28 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-519:
Who said anything about connoisseurs? I find it goes well with our local majat, and can even compliment a healthy Malawi Trumpet.
18 Jul 2012, 17:29 pm
@Stawm(Stawm)-525:
True. For a participant of the leaf of wisdom, I have a surprisingly good memory. I do have a mate though that can remember hardly anything from those years 
18 Jul 2012, 17:30 pm
@fitz1ella(fitz1ella)-520:
I’m sure you have a turnip in your Eco larder that needs smoking.
You are interrupting an interesting discussion with your childish tantrums.
Be gone now before you ruin another pair of y fronts.
18 Jul 2012, 17:30 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-526:
HOOHA
BOOM
I love da ladies!
He should be here soon, as soon as his bus drops him off after a hard days work in the mall.
18 Jul 2012, 17:31 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-515:
Haven’t seen a cob in ages.
18 Jul 2012, 17:32 pm
@Stawm(Stawm)-527: Hey, I’m as fond of a little rum as the next man. I just refuse to believe that anyone drinks it with anything other than a lot of coke or a lot of fruit juice. Unless we’re talking some kind of transparent Bacardi-like tart fuel, in which case they should be posting on some Top Billing fan site and not here.
18 Jul 2012, 17:32 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-495: you the kind of schmuck that thinks by drowning your fck’d head in fermented barley you suddenly civilized…. check you fckups exchanging snob nosed sophisticated addiction labels
if its got a sophisticated snob nose label it makes it less of an obnoxious fucked up drug, so what you driving a Bentley or a Piccadilly Picanto while you sip down your 20% alcohol schnapps…
18 Jul 2012, 17:32 pm
Stormerboy is the biggest scent of a woman fan here.
He even walks around sniffing his fingers all day.
18 Jul 2012, 17:33 pm
@Stawm(Stawm)-530:
Night shift at Coin Security…
18 Jul 2012, 17:35 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-534:
18 Jul 2012, 17:35 pm
@Jeraldjay(Jeraldjay)-531: Wrapped in mielie leaf, tied with string and left to mature until the first two puffs makes you forget your surname and question your once-solid belief in gravity.
18 Jul 2012, 17:35 pm
@fitz1ella(fitz1ella)-533:
Leave my Piccanto out of this.
Nobody asked you what you thought.
Now fuckoff to Keo’s organic Viagra thread and leave your betters to it.
18 Jul 2012, 17:36 pm
in mozambique we sometimes drink tipo tinto rum.
aweful sh i t.
usually its a one night only thing.
we drink it with rasberry cola.
a rum and rasberry.
an RnR.
awful
i long for an RnR.
18 Jul 2012, 17:38 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-537:
18 Jul 2012, 17:39 pm
@fitz1ella(fitz1ella)-533: Who are you to talk? With the state of your Nissan 1400’s petrol tank, the short drive from the Fishoek Shoprite back to the Sun Valley Home for the Infirm leaves you as shitfaced as anyone here after half a bottle of bourbon.
18 Jul 2012, 17:39 pm
@Dusky(Dusky)-528:
I considered myself quite an expert in my day! Now I know I am!
Anyway, once had a lil something in a coffee shop in ADam called Pop Eyes. Thought I was strong enough. Been there and done it, you know. I couldnt get off my seat for about 3 hours. Couldnt even turn my face to look at whoever was talking to me.
All I remember well is a never ending rendition of “Iron Lion of Zion”.
18 Jul 2012, 17:40 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-534: hahahaha sieeeees!
(Looking around nervously)…..
18 Jul 2012, 17:42 pm
@Stawm(Stawm)-530: You sharpshootin’ me, punk? Is that what you’re doin’? Don’t you sharpshoot me! You’ll give me forty. Then you’re gonna give me forty more. Then you’re gonna pull K.P., the grease pit! I’ll rub your NOSE in enlisted men’s CRUD till you don’t know WHICH END IS UP! YOU UNDERSTAND?
sigh. Good times.
18 Jul 2012, 17:43 pm
@rangerman(rangerman)-539: FERNANDO’S!!!!!! Holy hell, some of the nights at that place…..eish….No I’m craving an Rn’R too damn you
18 Jul 2012, 17:44 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-541: Viskoek is a dry town boet. Ou doosie lives there with all the other fiossils and no bottlestores cos he WANTS to, god help him
18 Jul 2012, 17:58 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-532:
In New Orleans their main cocktail is a Hurricane – made with 151 Rum. Strong as f&^&.
Its all about the buz, not the taste.
Beer for taste then beer buz.
18 Jul 2012, 18:01 pm
@Atreides(Atreides)-546:
Something tells me that our resident Blowhard hasn’t always been do dry.
Which is why he has tucked himself away from temptation.
18 Jul 2012, 18:03 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-548: Ol’ Crazy Heart.
18 Jul 2012, 18:04 pm
@Stawm(Stawm)-547: Correct, and what a pleasant buzz it is. If it’s good enough for the people of Trinidad and Tobago, it’s good enough for the katman.
Also got some Takamaka Bay rum from the Seychelles, which does the job nicely.
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