Sharper side will take Brisbane spoils
18 Jul 2012
JON CARDINELLI analyses Saturday’s clash in the Queensland capital and writes that the winner may not be the side that makes the big plays, but rather the team that makes the fewest errors.
It may seem an obvious statement to make, but then the Reds and Sharks have been anything but consistent this season.
Both have scraped through to the play-offs despite some woeful performances where the inconsistencies have cost them the result. There have also be instances where these teams have mixed the accurate with the erratic, and have still managed to come out on top.
If this is to be accepted, then what insight can statistics provide? Indeed, both teams should be expected to play more conservatively in a knockout match than they have in recent rounds. Four-try bonus points are no longer a priority, and this could be reflected in either team’s approach.
But there is something to be gained by examining the stats of the Round 4 clash between these two teams. There is also value in the statistics when you look at how the referee for this match, Jonathan Kaplan, has officiated over the course of the 2012 season.
If we look at who is available for the coming match, and who was available for that Round 4 game in Durban, there are key differences but also many similarities. The Sharks will be without Pat Lambie this weekend, who played flyhalf in that previous game. The Reds are likely to play the same halfback pairing of Will Genia and Ben Lucas, as Quade Cooper is not available until a possible semi-final. The big omission for Queenslanders on this occasion will be that of lock James Horwill.
The Sharks won the Round 4 match 27-22 after trailing 17-10 at half-time. It was a game where the Sharks started badly, but found form as the match progressed. It was also a game where the Reds were hampered by a number of injuries throughout and were forced to finish with scrumhalf Genia in the flyhalf channel.
According to ruckingoodstats.com, both teams were guilty of many turnovers on that occasion, with the Reds (19) worse than the Sharks (14). The Reds made 10 handling errors on the day, and this obviously impacted on their ability to capitalise on a superior amount of possession (69% in the first half and 53% in the second). They may have also have edged the game but for some woeful goal-kicking where their kickers missed three attempts at posts.
Lambie was flawless in front of goal, converting all five attempts. But while the Sharks will miss Lambie’s influence in the side, it must be noted that he has since been shifted to fullback with Freddie Michalak coming in at No 10. And apart from lending the Sharks some impetus from that flyhalf position, Michalak has also maintained an impressive goal-kicking record (81%) over the course of the season.
If the Reds impede this Saturday, the Sharks will feel confident that Michalak can make the hosts pay on the scoreboard. Ruckingoodstats reveals that of the 15 teams that played Super Rugby this season, the Reds were ranked third for penalties conceded (they conceded 10.6 penalties per match on average). The Sharks are ranked seventh overall in this respect.
Breaking it down further, the Reds are the biggest culprits when in possession, conceding more penalties than any of the other 14 teams. And looking at the rucks and mauls, the Reds are ranked second for the most penalties conceded.
Scrums aren’t much better, with the Reds conceding the third most penalties. The Sharks will have noted this weakness, and as they boast one of the strongest and most disciplined scrums, they will surely look to target the Reds in this area.
At the other set piece, however, it is the Reds that are more threatening. They are ranked second in the competition for winning the lineout against the throw. Considering their weakness at the scrum, they should look to disrupt the Sharks at the lineout.
While the Reds have conceded a number of penalties while in possession, and a fair few at the breakdown, they are proficient in making breakdown steals (3.9 per match). They have some specialists in Liam Gill and Beau Robinson, as well as hooker Saia Faingaa, who excel in this respect.
It will also help that Kaplan is officiating this fixture, as the South African is one of the more lenient referees at the ruck and maul (Kaplan is ranked 15th out of 19 Super Rugby referees in terms of penalties awarded in these areas). This may allow the Reds to maintain possession a bit more than usual, and also have more of a crack at the breakdown turnover when they’re defending.
But where Kaplan is far less generous is at the scrum, and as the superior team in this area, the Sharks should benefit. Kaplan is ranked fifth when it comes to infringements awarded at this set piece.
He also tends to award more penalties than free kicks and there are only four refs in the competition who offer fewer scrum resets than Kaplan. In short, if the Reds impede or fail to set properly, Kaplan is unlikely to give them another crack. The Sharks have conceded the fewest scrum infringements in the tournament.
Suncorp Stadium is often described as the perfect ground on which to play running rugby, and it’s true that both sides have a penchant for a fast-paced approach. But the occasion may demand a tighter, less risky game plan, and the margin for error will be small.
The Reds may not have Cooper available for this play-off, but they do have a reliable goal-kicker in Mike Harris (who has a 77% success rate). It is for this reason the Sharks will also need to ensure they don’t impede within range of the goal posts.
Their big banker will be Michalak, who will be tasked with turning Reds infringements and errors into points.
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629 Comments
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18 Jul 2012, 18:04 pm
who said anything about wanting to anything..?
Vishoek is a neat little ou doos seaside village as decent as anywhere else, and if arseholes want or need to get motherless believe me there are plenty avenues and facilities where they do so as good or bad as the next town up the drag.
schmucks like these wanna snob nose it around town about whether one drive a Nissan or a Picanto or a Porsche shows who and what they made of.. they reckon the wheels you drive or the grog you drink defines your level of sophistication or civilization trend
Its outright bullshit .. all you morons bullshitting yourselves you enjoying getting motherless on fermented grog with fanciful expensive labels…. its legalized drug addiction and nothing more beyond that..
18 Jul 2012, 18:10 pm
@Atreides(Atreides)-545: bud, that place will kill you.
seriously.
18 Jul 2012, 18:14 pm
@fitz1ella(fitz1ella)-551: why do you care so much snoeky?
why not just get on with your life and forget about what brings joy to others?
because you are a joyless old apartheid fu ck head always wanting to poke your nose in to make sure no one is enjoying themselves.
you probably hate *** because it leads to dancing.
18 Jul 2012, 18:15 pm
@Dusky(Dusky)-478: Kentucky is also where its fashion to marry ur neice and ur grand pappy to have married ur sister
18 Jul 2012, 18:15 pm
@rangerman(rangerman)-552: hiyas rangerman
18 Jul 2012, 18:16 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-549:
Yes him.
18 Jul 2012, 18:17 pm
didnt the ohagans bring an end to vishoeks dry status?
or did snoeky and his band of awesome crusaders for “no one knows but us” close them down?
fark can you imagine a wa n ker like snoeky running things?
no thanks give me idi amin rather, at least you knew what you were getting with idi.
18 Jul 2012, 18:18 pm
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-555: howzit man.
eish, the weather is playing havoc with my weekend plans.
whats the weather like down there atm?
18 Jul 2012, 18:19 pm
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-554: That’s the place.;)
18 Jul 2012, 18:19 pm
@rangerman(rangerman)-552: I know. It killed me 3 times, actually.
Not sure what air freshener he uses in there but it is the world’s most powerful female aphrodisiac lol…or maybe it’s something in the water
18 Jul 2012, 18:20 pm
@fitz1ella(fitz1ella)-551: It’s farkin awesome is what it is!
18 Jul 2012, 18:21 pm
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-554: ps enjoyed the Arniston bay Merlot you gave me.
Really smooth. It went down like a homesick mole.
18 Jul 2012, 18:21 pm
this little fucknut rangerprude here reckons this sh’t brings joy to his world.. getting motherless fucked up to hell brings joy to his world… yeah.. bullshit artists supremo’s … they wanna get totally motherless befucked through and through.. and this brings joy to their world…
if ever there was a bullshit detector buzzer warning ringing alarm bells loud and clear is watching you bullshit artists bullshitting yourselves that your outright drug addiction brings joy to your world…
18 Jul 2012, 18:23 pm
@rangerman(rangerman)-557: Yep, and there’s also an old-timers pub on the south side of the village called Victorian Times (or something like that). Skoppie probably pickets there on Sunday afternoons, threatening to lob butternuts through the windows if they don’t stop selling booze.
18 Jul 2012, 18:24 pm
@fitz1ella(fitz1ella)-563: Yep ou doosie, enjoying a shot of single malt after a hard day’s work equates to getting ‘totally motherless befucked through and through”
Hmm hysterical much?
18 Jul 2012, 18:24 pm
Woohoo!
A booze brawl!
18 Jul 2012, 18:25 pm
Oh no.
Princess Fuckadilly has her Fakefuck wand out.
This will end badly.
18 Jul 2012, 18:25 pm
@rangerman(rangerman)-558: NIce and warm for a change bro, little windy but thats normal
18 Jul 2012, 18:26 pm
@fitz1ella(fitz1ella)-563: How do you reconcile the 45 year-old hard on you have for the drugfcked booze soaked Woodstock orgy with this phony, fake, pretentious, highfalutin, wannabe prudish morality you’re sicking up here?
18 Jul 2012, 18:26 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-562: lol a pleasure boet,
18 Jul 2012, 18:27 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-562: BTW it is Jack Daniels, not JOhn Daniels
18 Jul 2012, 18:28 pm
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-568: The Wind is just your Chilli talking.
18 Jul 2012, 18:28 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-569:
wtf boet i nearly chocked as i spat that coffee out 
18 Jul 2012, 18:29 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-572:
me and the wife had peri peri prawns last night as it is, large king prawens went down real good 
18 Jul 2012, 18:30 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-569: Somewhere on the peninsula a hapless Nokia is taking a pounding right now
18 Jul 2012, 18:31 pm
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-571: I know that. It’s a set-up line.
Scent of a woman.
You’re supposed to say “ïsn’t it Jack Daniels?”
And i respond in my Al Pacino voice:
“He may be Jack to you son, but if you’ve known him as long as i have…..”
18 Jul 2012, 18:33 pm
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-574: Niiiiice.
I had leftovers.
18 Jul 2012, 18:34 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-576:
18 Jul 2012, 18:36 pm
@Atreides(Atreides)-565: hard days work you say.. I check some you dudes have spent all of approximately 5 or 6 hours on keo from around 9 am to 6 pm discussing politics, merlots, shiraz’s , bourbons, and the evaluation of SARS taxation structures in respect of who contributes more or less to the upgrade of the broader spectrum of the downtrodden indigenous population… .. and in the next breath they telling me how hard they worked in order to reap that R80 K PM corporate pay package which enables them to contribute the R29 K pm PAYE contribution to society.. so this entitles them to spend their hard earned grog money on sophisticated motherless inducing legalized drugs…
18 Jul 2012, 18:36 pm
@fitz1ella(fitz1ella)-563:
I’ve always thought you are motherless every day you post here. Seriously.
Anyhoo, some of us drink ourselves into a fine old mellow buzz. No need to get motherless etc as you put it. Self Control is a sign of civilization, dont you know?
I take it then you could only go all the way into total oblivion, no middle ground?
18 Jul 2012, 18:39 pm
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-578: I was at your place on Monday. Spent a few hours there abusing your uncapped mweb
Cappuccinos and French toast.
Nice.
18 Jul 2012, 18:40 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-581:
18 Jul 2012, 18:41 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-569: you just a little fraudulent fakefck you little snob nosed prude.. didn’t I tell you that already you pissarse little two faced snob nose bourgeois phony fucked up fraud… how many times do I have to tell you the real facts of life before it sinks into your fucked up snob nosed little highfalutin bourgeois befuddled brain…?
18 Jul 2012, 18:43 pm
that me out.. done my good dead for the civilized state of society for a little while
continue in your deluded debauched merry way.. high society emissaries of civilization
18 Jul 2012, 18:46 pm
@fitz1ella(fitz1ella)-579: hmmm life is all about choices isnt it?
while you were swanning around banging norwegians and any other poor girl who couldnt see past the kaftan and the spittle some climbed the corporate ladder.
dont those rich people pay you for cleaning their drains or building a nice retaining wall or something?
shelve your jealousy, your life is your life and you must learn to love your place in the greater scheme of things.
cue: garbled bs lefty liberal angry rant at the meaningless of it all
18 Jul 2012, 18:50 pm
Indeed
I always wondered how much work gets done around here during the day!
18 Jul 2012, 19:06 pm
Retired.Wife & I help Aids orphans.No big deal.But absence of Govt
and black people in general piss us off.No Education,No Security,No
Health care.Where does my taxes go?
18 Jul 2012, 19:08 pm
Usually log on at the end of the thread.Beginning to think that I am the
thread killer.SaY IT ISN.T SO.
18 Jul 2012, 19:13 pm
STBUR. YOU ARE VERY GOOD.
18 Jul 2012, 19:22 pm
THE COMMENT ON AIDS ORPHANS WAS APPROPOS OF f.ALL.
MERELY BACKGROUND TO MY POST.
18 Jul 2012, 19:24 pm
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-554: No different to Brakpan, Alberton or Danville ?
18 Jul 2012, 19:25 pm
@fitz1ella(fitz1ella)-563: Have you lost your mind ? You sound like a raving lunatic ?
18 Jul 2012, 19:27 pm
@fitz1ella(fitz1ella)-579: People still earn 80K per month ?
18 Jul 2012, 19:33 pm
@fitz1ella(fitz1ella)-579:
Spot on old chap. Spot on.
18 Jul 2012, 19:51 pm
Relax Rye.
Nice to have some background
18 Jul 2012, 20:36 pm
I see my back of fagpacket revenue calcs for the “180 000 Fallacy” seems to have induced a sudden change of subject from those towering Keo Captains of Industry…
Wonder why?
Do we put down this apparent error to SARS incompetence, or just the “time value of money”
18 Jul 2012, 20:49 pm
Hello Dawn.A.lot of vitriol going your way in recent posts.Keep Well.
And Terse.And laconic And Reticent..And to Moer with them
18 Jul 2012, 20:55 pm
Yep to moer with them.
18 Jul 2012, 21:26 pm
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game)-596: HG
SARS figures are factual.
It doesn’t say that there are only 500 000 taxpayers you fool,
What they said was that 500 000 people earned a taxable income of more than R180 000 p.a.
Got it??
So let me dumb this down for you:
Number of taxpayers = beeeeg,
Number of taxpayers earning more than R180 000 p.a. (these figures are at least 8 years old) = smaaaaall.
As for what % of the total tax collection this 500 000 encompasses, I do not know.
You can be sure though that those numbers are not 500 000 each earning R180 000 p.a. like you were working with.
You know that, but where you look the biggest fool is by thinking that everyone on this site buys your argument and doesn’t see the obvious failing in logic.
Sometimes I think that arguing with you is like trying to reason with ET.
.
18 Jul 2012, 21:41 pm
HG has just been demoted to Corporal of Industry.
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