Sharper side will take Brisbane spoils
18 Jul 2012
JON CARDINELLI analyses Saturday’s clash in the Queensland capital and writes that the winner may not be the side that makes the big plays, but rather the team that makes the fewest errors.
It may seem an obvious statement to make, but then the Reds and Sharks have been anything but consistent this season.
Both have scraped through to the play-offs despite some woeful performances where the inconsistencies have cost them the result. There have also be instances where these teams have mixed the accurate with the erratic, and have still managed to come out on top.
If this is to be accepted, then what insight can statistics provide? Indeed, both teams should be expected to play more conservatively in a knockout match than they have in recent rounds. Four-try bonus points are no longer a priority, and this could be reflected in either team’s approach.
But there is something to be gained by examining the stats of the Round 4 clash between these two teams. There is also value in the statistics when you look at how the referee for this match, Jonathan Kaplan, has officiated over the course of the 2012 season.
If we look at who is available for the coming match, and who was available for that Round 4 game in Durban, there are key differences but also many similarities. The Sharks will be without Pat Lambie this weekend, who played flyhalf in that previous game. The Reds are likely to play the same halfback pairing of Will Genia and Ben Lucas, as Quade Cooper is not available until a possible semi-final. The big omission for Queenslanders on this occasion will be that of lock James Horwill.
The Sharks won the Round 4 match 27-22 after trailing 17-10 at half-time. It was a game where the Sharks started badly, but found form as the match progressed. It was also a game where the Reds were hampered by a number of injuries throughout and were forced to finish with scrumhalf Genia in the flyhalf channel.
According to ruckingoodstats.com, both teams were guilty of many turnovers on that occasion, with the Reds (19) worse than the Sharks (14). The Reds made 10 handling errors on the day, and this obviously impacted on their ability to capitalise on a superior amount of possession (69% in the first half and 53% in the second). They may have also have edged the game but for some woeful goal-kicking where their kickers missed three attempts at posts.
Lambie was flawless in front of goal, converting all five attempts. But while the Sharks will miss Lambie’s influence in the side, it must be noted that he has since been shifted to fullback with Freddie Michalak coming in at No 10. And apart from lending the Sharks some impetus from that flyhalf position, Michalak has also maintained an impressive goal-kicking record (81%) over the course of the season.
If the Reds impede this Saturday, the Sharks will feel confident that Michalak can make the hosts pay on the scoreboard. Ruckingoodstats reveals that of the 15 teams that played Super Rugby this season, the Reds were ranked third for penalties conceded (they conceded 10.6 penalties per match on average). The Sharks are ranked seventh overall in this respect.
Breaking it down further, the Reds are the biggest culprits when in possession, conceding more penalties than any of the other 14 teams. And looking at the rucks and mauls, the Reds are ranked second for the most penalties conceded.
Scrums aren’t much better, with the Reds conceding the third most penalties. The Sharks will have noted this weakness, and as they boast one of the strongest and most disciplined scrums, they will surely look to target the Reds in this area.
At the other set piece, however, it is the Reds that are more threatening. They are ranked second in the competition for winning the lineout against the throw. Considering their weakness at the scrum, they should look to disrupt the Sharks at the lineout.
While the Reds have conceded a number of penalties while in possession, and a fair few at the breakdown, they are proficient in making breakdown steals (3.9 per match). They have some specialists in Liam Gill and Beau Robinson, as well as hooker Saia Faingaa, who excel in this respect.
It will also help that Kaplan is officiating this fixture, as the South African is one of the more lenient referees at the ruck and maul (Kaplan is ranked 15th out of 19 Super Rugby referees in terms of penalties awarded in these areas). This may allow the Reds to maintain possession a bit more than usual, and also have more of a crack at the breakdown turnover when they’re defending.
But where Kaplan is far less generous is at the scrum, and as the superior team in this area, the Sharks should benefit. Kaplan is ranked fifth when it comes to infringements awarded at this set piece.
He also tends to award more penalties than free kicks and there are only four refs in the competition who offer fewer scrum resets than Kaplan. In short, if the Reds impede or fail to set properly, Kaplan is unlikely to give them another crack. The Sharks have conceded the fewest scrum infringements in the tournament.
Suncorp Stadium is often described as the perfect ground on which to play running rugby, and it’s true that both sides have a penchant for a fast-paced approach. But the occasion may demand a tighter, less risky game plan, and the margin for error will be small.
The Reds may not have Cooper available for this play-off, but they do have a reliable goal-kicker in Mike Harris (who has a 77% success rate). It is for this reason the Sharks will also need to ensure they don’t impede within range of the goal posts.
Their big banker will be Michalak, who will be tasked with turning Reds infringements and errors into points.
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629 Comments
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18 Jul 2012, 11:25 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-146:
yeah… i try and read both stuff and smh rugbyheavens… to get a different perspective… and some NH sites too…
18 Jul 2012, 11:25 am
@Provvas(Provvas)-143:
There is merit in what you say but I want to see the complete game of rugby, some refer to it as ‘total rugby’
You may subscribe to an approach of offensive defence, but I want to see flair and creativity in taking opportunities that present themselves.
We marginalise ourselves when we declare about ourselves: we are great defensive unit
18 Jul 2012, 11:26 am
I can’t see the Bulls having enough to pip the Saders but do think the Sharks have a chance but it will not be easy. I hear the weather is not good either.
18 Jul 2012, 11:26 am
@ufo(ufo)-149: Other thing is who says the Saders and Richie dont have some behind the doors agreements with certain refs?? i would hate to think that is the case???
but there is smoke right now thats for sure
18 Jul 2012, 11:29 am
@Sheriff(Sheriff)-139: The bottom line is: this country has a sorrowful history fullstop. Nothing anyone can do about it now, so time wasted rehashing it, is time being stolen from building a future.
I don’t do history, I do the future.
So by all means give a man R30 000 and a piece of land – but make sure you give him the skill, back end support and self belief to actually make the money and the land work for him. Without those things, the cash and land is just what I hate – a handout.
Until we stop with handouts, and start with skills – I am very anti MOST initiatives.
Closing point in my little speech: I’m happy to give my time to the ‘have-nots’, and I’m happy to give my money to the animal charities.
18 Jul 2012, 11:34 am
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-154:
jaaa SL… guess it is possible as corruption is always possible in any sphere…
but i seriously think it is improbable…
as i said, i really don’t think anyone… richie, crusaders, refs, saffas, anyone… goes out to cheat… maybe they push gamesmanship to the limit… but it’s up to the refs to stamp it out… and that starts with the appointments of the refs…
it would be easier to simply NOT put refs in a position where they can be accused of bias or cheating… appointing saffa refs for games of this magnitude is very shortsighted to me… if there are any mistakes… (and refs are human and make mistakes too… some more than others) instead of just being accepted as a mistake it will be labelled cheating and and blown out of all proportion…
i keep saying if only the games will be controversy free… but the referees management have already ensured they will be controversial…
very shortsighted…
IMO
18 Jul 2012, 11:36 am
That Germanic ethnic group and whites of British descent in SA need to understand that the cozy economic situation that they currently find themselves in will not continue indefinitely.They also need a reality check that economic freedom has not been attained yet and that the struggle to achieve that will continue whether they like it or not.
18 Jul 2012, 11:38 am
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-138: Very well thanks.
Yeah for sure. I would rather we had a neutral ref. Kaplan has not been great with the Shark to be honest.
Read my post 121. See the Aussies are not very happy about the refs for this weekend either.
18 Jul 2012, 11:39 am
later
18 Jul 2012, 11:42 am
@Puma(Puma)-158: have done so boet
18 Jul 2012, 11:43 am
@ufo(ufo)-156: Howzit ufo, hope we well bud.
I personally don’t agree having two saffa refs for these games. You are very right if the refs make mistakes and that happens in every game, the refs will be to blame who wins.
Daft to have this reffing system really. Spiro wrote a scathing article about it.
Kaplan usually over does it by trying not to be biased when reffing a saffa side aboard. If anything it will be very tough having Kaplan reffing this game. I would rather we had neutral refs.
18 Jul 2012, 11:45 am
@stormerforlife1(stormerforlife1)-157:
good to see you are doing your bit.
on your “eu” passport.
poodlefucker.
18 Jul 2012, 11:46 am
@ufo(ufo)-109:
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-114:
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-115:
cannot stand this farking team at all !
cannot stand them when they’re at the blacks
truth is that article goes nowhere near enough to telling it like it is about them.
@WP Till I Die(WP-Forever)-123:
ok, thanks
18 Jul 2012, 11:48 am
@stormerforlife1(stormerforlife1)-157: I think many people do understand that. My personal feeling towards the whole ‘economic freedom’ argument, is that TRUE economic freedom will not come from handouts – but from education, skills training and support.
The ‘haves’ must be prepared to give their time (it’s a lot harder than giving money….)
The ‘have nots’ must be prepared to accept skills training and support in the same ‘happy’ way that they would accept money. (A piece of land is worth 30k; Skills and the means to support yourself: Priceless)
@ufo(ufo)-156: There will be controversy this weekend – I am more certain of that than what I am of the outcomes.
18 Jul 2012, 11:49 am
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-160: Your feeling for our game?
18 Jul 2012, 11:49 am
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-162: Is there a cricket link on this site?
18 Jul 2012, 11:51 am
Oh yes,I am supporting various worthwhile charities doing sterling work in Stormersboy’s subsidized poor communities.
18 Jul 2012, 11:52 am
@stormerforlife1(stormerforlife1)-157:“There’s class warfare, all right, but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.” ? Warren Buffett
18 Jul 2012, 11:53 am
@Puma(Puma)-165: mixed emotions boet, Reds never easy, and even though the last 5 matches went our way it was always very close, and before that they seemed to be our bogey side
and also some of the most boring matches were played between us and them
18 Jul 2012, 11:55 am
@Puma(Puma)-121: I forgot about how Peyper skrewed over the Saders in Pretoria.
18 Jul 2012, 11:55 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-166: no, keo stopped doing cricket.
18 Jul 2012, 11:55 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-166:
No.
We make our own.
Feel free to hijack any thread and talk about it.
It drives Captain Cunteye quite insane.
Very excited but the weather will probably have its way.
18 Jul 2012, 11:56 am
Does the recurring use of the word “impede” in the article indicate Cardinelli is specifically referring to deliberate infringements?
18 Jul 2012, 11:56 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-155:
I understand your point of view.
The only time when the giving to animals becomes a problem to me is in the following instance:
Say you have someone who comes in 1x a week to wash your clothes, clean your flat/house and maybe do a bit of ironing. It’s SA, this is a reality we have here. Now some people will pay Gladys (for lack of a better alt) say R70 as oppose to say R100 which may be more reasonable.
In this case Butch the dog at the SPCA now gets that Gladys’ R30; I say give Gladys R100 and Butch R20.
‘Love thy neighbour’to my mind refers 1st to Gladys and then to Butch if you get my point
18 Jul 2012, 11:57 am
@rossoneri(rossoneri)-170: Yes have to agree, think he got it wrong there too.
Should be neutral refs for these games Rossi.
18 Jul 2012, 11:59 am
@trupisero(trupisero)-168:
When it comes to class Capo is a “have not”.
@stormerforlife1(stormerforlife1)-167:
shelters for abused poodles?
talk about poacher turned game keeper.
18 Jul 2012, 12:01 pm
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-154: What about the fact that the Bulls never lose a game when Marius Jonker is blowing the whistle. Ever!
18 Jul 2012, 12:03 pm
@rossoneri(rossoneri)-170:
tell me more lilly my angel.
18 Jul 2012, 12:03 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-172: @Transformation(Transformation)-171:
Thanks. As long as there will be some discussion on the matter at hand
All threads are cricket threads – check.
Did you see this little classic from old Boycott? ““Graeme Swann is a superb bowler … much better than Tahir. I wouldn’t lose any sleep if I were playing Imran Tahir, and I’m 70.”
I love the old fecker – he has a home here in CT.
18 Jul 2012, 12:04 pm
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-169: Not gonna be easy. All the last few games for us were pressure games, kinda like knock out rugby. Also in those games we had to get the 4 tries to go through. I feel we must carry on and play the attacking game as if we have to get the 4 tries to go through. Need to play the game like we done against the Bulls. Feel if we go conservative and play it tight, we could lose.
Hope Bissie is okay too. He limped off near the end. Without him think we will struggle.
18 Jul 2012, 12:04 pm
@rossoneri(rossoneri)-177: i agree thus my call for nuetral refs
18 Jul 2012, 12:05 pm
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-154:
tmo to referee: ‘you may award the try’
larf
18 Jul 2012, 12:06 pm
Gladys and Butch
18 Jul 2012, 12:09 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-179:
Luck he didn’t start talking about playing him with a stick of rhubarb.
He has a place in Pearl Valley.
He also has a golf swing that reminds me of a stabbed meerkat.
Swann is probably the better bowler.
But the difference is not as big as Fiery makes out.
I would love to see Tahir take the Poms apart on a crumbling 5th day pitch.
18 Jul 2012, 12:16 pm
Sharks Team announced
Beast
Bis
Jannie
Alberts
Bresler
Keegan c
Coetzee
Kanko
Mcloed
Fred
Mvovo
Whitehead
Jordaan
JP
Ludik
Burden, Herbst, Sykes, Botes, Reinach, Bosman, Odwa.
Quite a strong team that.
18 Jul 2012, 12:17 pm
Tahir is way averrated.Boycott is absolutely correct.Tahir got carted around by two teenage Somerset batters.Enough said.
18 Jul 2012, 12:18 pm
@galileo, roundness, union, coach…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-182: lol
18 Jul 2012, 12:18 pm
@Dawn(Dawn)-183:
Also, it is advisable to stop the following practice:
Stop saying ‘ The maid’ or in Afrikaans ‘ Die bediende’
For example: I will leave the key with the maid and you can just pick from her
Stop that. Say I will leave it with Gladys (fill in yours’ name); if they say who’s Gladys? Say ‘it’s the lady who helps us once a week and so on’
Stop making yourself sound like some colonial and get with prog; this is what we call SOCIAL JUSTICE
(*** Throughout this example the assumption is that Gladys is white ***)
18 Jul 2012, 12:19 pm
@John Galt(John Galt)-185: Brilliant. Alberts to start, just what I was hoping for. Sure at lock but that is okay.
Great team that. If we can’t win with that starting team then I don’t know…lol.
GO SHARKS!
18 Jul 2012, 12:20 pm
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-187: Sharks team announced. Check post 185.
18 Jul 2012, 12:21 pm
@Sheriff(Sheriff)-188:
Why? Shes the Maid.
If maid was such a bad word it wouldnt be used anywhere in the world.
And then absolute classics like Maid in Manhatten would never have been maid(sic)
18 Jul 2012, 12:21 pm
Jordaan starting too. Great to have him back.
18 Jul 2012, 12:21 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-184: If it’s going to rain the 1st three days as predicted (typical), how much cricket are we going to see…
Might be a blessing in disguise though – as we are a little undercooked (however good the preparation was). Ease in slowly and hold out….., although I’m probably just being a pessimist.
Thoughts on our possible line-up? Drop Tahir due to the weather forecasts or keep him?
18 Jul 2012, 12:22 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-53:
He wants your age so that he can discredit your argument by attacking your “credibility”. It doesn’t matter whether you are young or old.
Fact of the matter is that throughout history, in all countries and continents a particular group has always had power over another. Often there was no racial difference, sometimes language, sometimes religion, sometimes none of those things and it was purely the group who had been the historical nobility that held the advantage. People identify with groups and use that to their advantage when they can. It being race in SA is not more or less wrong than any other factor. It certainly does not imbued Sheriff with some righteous moral high ground. Only handwringing white liberals fall for that rubbish.
Those historical disparities are not corrected by poppy-**** moral appeals like Sheriff makes. Is he seriously asking you to give up resources to the detriment of your children? In a country where you have no power and where the very laws handicap their future? He is as delusional as my 101 year old grandmother.
The only solution is for the state to properly execute its mandate which is the delivery of municipal services, law & order and the creation of an environment to encourage top-drawer school and tertiary education. Because in practice whites are already “returning” resources. We pay more tax than we receive from the government in services. Blacks receive more and pay in less.
However, the government is not executing its primary responsibilities. So instead of Sheriff bemoaning the government’s failure he clearly shows his racial bias by wanting the whites to “return resources” in addition to the tax disparity. Moving a few assets around won’t help anything if the basic conditions of a successful country are absent. Clearly he doesn’t care. It is about getting his revenge or whatever. And preaching of course. But he can fly a kite. No one is returning resources en masse and if it is done by force he will reap terrible hardship for his group. It has been proven time and time again throughout Africa.
I mean, why is this idiot even bringing this up here on a rugby blog?
18 Jul 2012, 12:22 pm
@John Galt(John Galt)-185: exactly the same as i posted on here last monday, i am getting good at this lol
yeah good team under circumstances
18 Jul 2012, 12:23 pm
@stormerforlife1(stormerforlife1)-186: You would go with an all out pace attack and Duminy for this test? The weather also being taken into account?
18 Jul 2012, 12:24 pm
@John Galt(John Galt)-185: Also we never had Kanko when we played them at the Tank. So doubt they will have it all their own way in the lineouts.
18 Jul 2012, 12:24 pm
@Puma(Puma)-192: lol i told rob this would be the team
well he also had this to start with but his bench had 2 locks
I’ll have to tell him i am the new expert
18 Jul 2012, 12:25 pm
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-195:
Yep, considering injuries and restrictions, this is the best possible 22 Plum could have picked.
18 Jul 2012, 12:26 pm
@John Galt(John Galt)-199: agree boet
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