Sharper side will take Brisbane spoils
18 Jul 2012
JON CARDINELLI analyses Saturday’s clash in the Queensland capital and writes that the winner may not be the side that makes the big plays, but rather the team that makes the fewest errors.
It may seem an obvious statement to make, but then the Reds and Sharks have been anything but consistent this season.
Both have scraped through to the play-offs despite some woeful performances where the inconsistencies have cost them the result. There have also be instances where these teams have mixed the accurate with the erratic, and have still managed to come out on top.
If this is to be accepted, then what insight can statistics provide? Indeed, both teams should be expected to play more conservatively in a knockout match than they have in recent rounds. Four-try bonus points are no longer a priority, and this could be reflected in either team’s approach.
But there is something to be gained by examining the stats of the Round 4 clash between these two teams. There is also value in the statistics when you look at how the referee for this match, Jonathan Kaplan, has officiated over the course of the 2012 season.
If we look at who is available for the coming match, and who was available for that Round 4 game in Durban, there are key differences but also many similarities. The Sharks will be without Pat Lambie this weekend, who played flyhalf in that previous game. The Reds are likely to play the same halfback pairing of Will Genia and Ben Lucas, as Quade Cooper is not available until a possible semi-final. The big omission for Queenslanders on this occasion will be that of lock James Horwill.
The Sharks won the Round 4 match 27-22 after trailing 17-10 at half-time. It was a game where the Sharks started badly, but found form as the match progressed. It was also a game where the Reds were hampered by a number of injuries throughout and were forced to finish with scrumhalf Genia in the flyhalf channel.
According to ruckingoodstats.com, both teams were guilty of many turnovers on that occasion, with the Reds (19) worse than the Sharks (14). The Reds made 10 handling errors on the day, and this obviously impacted on their ability to capitalise on a superior amount of possession (69% in the first half and 53% in the second). They may have also have edged the game but for some woeful goal-kicking where their kickers missed three attempts at posts.
Lambie was flawless in front of goal, converting all five attempts. But while the Sharks will miss Lambie’s influence in the side, it must be noted that he has since been shifted to fullback with Freddie Michalak coming in at No 10. And apart from lending the Sharks some impetus from that flyhalf position, Michalak has also maintained an impressive goal-kicking record (81%) over the course of the season.
If the Reds impede this Saturday, the Sharks will feel confident that Michalak can make the hosts pay on the scoreboard. Ruckingoodstats reveals that of the 15 teams that played Super Rugby this season, the Reds were ranked third for penalties conceded (they conceded 10.6 penalties per match on average). The Sharks are ranked seventh overall in this respect.
Breaking it down further, the Reds are the biggest culprits when in possession, conceding more penalties than any of the other 14 teams. And looking at the rucks and mauls, the Reds are ranked second for the most penalties conceded.
Scrums aren’t much better, with the Reds conceding the third most penalties. The Sharks will have noted this weakness, and as they boast one of the strongest and most disciplined scrums, they will surely look to target the Reds in this area.
At the other set piece, however, it is the Reds that are more threatening. They are ranked second in the competition for winning the lineout against the throw. Considering their weakness at the scrum, they should look to disrupt the Sharks at the lineout.
While the Reds have conceded a number of penalties while in possession, and a fair few at the breakdown, they are proficient in making breakdown steals (3.9 per match). They have some specialists in Liam Gill and Beau Robinson, as well as hooker Saia Faingaa, who excel in this respect.
It will also help that Kaplan is officiating this fixture, as the South African is one of the more lenient referees at the ruck and maul (Kaplan is ranked 15th out of 19 Super Rugby referees in terms of penalties awarded in these areas). This may allow the Reds to maintain possession a bit more than usual, and also have more of a crack at the breakdown turnover when they’re defending.
But where Kaplan is far less generous is at the scrum, and as the superior team in this area, the Sharks should benefit. Kaplan is ranked fifth when it comes to infringements awarded at this set piece.
He also tends to award more penalties than free kicks and there are only four refs in the competition who offer fewer scrum resets than Kaplan. In short, if the Reds impede or fail to set properly, Kaplan is unlikely to give them another crack. The Sharks have conceded the fewest scrum infringements in the tournament.
Suncorp Stadium is often described as the perfect ground on which to play running rugby, and it’s true that both sides have a penchant for a fast-paced approach. But the occasion may demand a tighter, less risky game plan, and the margin for error will be small.
The Reds may not have Cooper available for this play-off, but they do have a reliable goal-kicker in Mike Harris (who has a 77% success rate). It is for this reason the Sharks will also need to ensure they don’t impede within range of the goal posts.
Their big banker will be Michalak, who will be tasked with turning Reds infringements and errors into points.
Follow JC on Twitter
Follow SA Rugby magazine on Twitter
Follow ruckingoodstats on Twitter
629 Comments
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 11 … 13 » Show All
18 Jul 2012, 12:27 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-193:
exactly.
I would keep tahir keep his confidence up.
de lange is injured.
albie next in line which is not ideal for test cricket.
under gary there seems ro be a determination to stick with a spinner as much as possible.
given that it will probably be a draw he’ll get some handy middle time.
18 Jul 2012, 12:27 pm
@Puma(Puma)-197:
Its been a very different Kanko running out the last few weeks.
He’s been truly phenominal for the Sharks in all facets of play.
18 Jul 2012, 12:27 pm
@John Galt(John Galt)-191:
John I want you to stop it; if you were talking to me- instead of elevating you in my mind you would have moved a few notches down
(See people say that to boost their social status)
Who taught you to speak like that?
18 Jul 2012, 12:28 pm
@Sheriff(Sheriff)-203:
The Pocket Oxford Dictionary.
Its a word, and not a derogatory one.
18 Jul 2012, 12:30 pm
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-195: Freddie needs to have a cracker. Lambie started at fh the last time we played them.
If our scrum and lineouts work like it done against the Bulls we will be sorted. No reason for it not to be.
18 Jul 2012, 12:31 pm
If rain is predicted for the first three days then the Oval pitch won’t probably be a true fifth day pitch. Duminy is adequate enough to provide a bit of spin.The Oval responsible for one of cricket’s most classical one liners:Devon Malcolm’s ‘You are history’
18 Jul 2012, 12:33 pm
@John Galt(John Galt)-202: Agree. One of our stand out players in the last two games.
18 Jul 2012, 12:33 pm
@Puma(Puma)-205: true, i have faith in freddy, he has had a very good season
18 Jul 2012, 12:35 pm
@STBUR(STBUR)-194:
I nearly missed this response, I’m glad I did not.
I told him why I want his age. I see you’ve taken the indirect route to respond to me.
I think the only idiot here would be you as you think I said let’s give handouts. I nearly typed the previous sentence halfway/incomplete as I sense it is pointless to discuss with you. It seems that we’re dealing here with ignorance and arrogance layer upon layer.
18 Jul 2012, 12:37 pm
Duminy is playing anyway.
We better pary Swann pulls a hammy in the warm up.
18 Jul 2012, 12:38 pm
@John Galt(John Galt)-204:
I feel I’ve done enough.
Next time when you say ‘the maid’ you will remember that Sheriff said that you must stop. That will suffice for now.
18 Jul 2012, 12:41 pm
I believe that the battle for world supremacy will be won by who of the magnificent fast bowling attacks performs on the day.Spin will play a role but ultimately it will come down to those fast boys.Great attacks yes,but they will never come close to the Fearsome Foursome of Roberts,Marshall,Holding and Garner.
18 Jul 2012, 12:41 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-210: lets rather pray
18 Jul 2012, 12:43 pm
Where’s the fcken Lions thread?
18 Jul 2012, 12:43 pm
@Sheriff(Sheriff)-211: what must he say ? “home executive”?
18 Jul 2012, 12:43 pm
@Sheriff(Sheriff)-211:
Wrong.
My boss doesnt refer to me by my name when talking to others, he refers to me by my job description.
People need to let go of all this time wasting political politeness, its creating issues where there arent any.
18 Jul 2012, 12:44 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-214:
The ‘whose’ thread?
18 Jul 2012, 12:45 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-214:
The Lion Kings?
18 Jul 2012, 12:45 pm
Indeed.
Maid is so passé.
Domestic Executive is the way forward.
Or Home Sanitation Consultant.
It’s a brave new world baby.
18 Jul 2012, 12:47 pm
yes. bring back neutral refs – for every game. no argument.
the question – who would be this good guy for bloggers here?.Kiwis/Aussies here by default are labelled plonkers at best, if not cheats outright, so skip them. Europeans? I would gladly know the one who has been involved in reffing Saffa side and not being lambasted. Clancy? Rolland? White? Poite? Owens? Lewis? Barnes? They all have got their share. Especially when Boks lose which happens quite often.
Who then?
18 Jul 2012, 12:50 pm
Pray indeed.
I think Capo has infiltrated my keyboard.
Next thing I will be visiting Poodle Parlour sites.
The shame.
18 Jul 2012, 12:50 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-219:
18 Jul 2012, 12:51 pm
@Nils(Nils)-220:
Nils who knows, its a pity the credibility of refs is not good at this mo
18 Jul 2012, 12:52 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-201: Gary does seem to be reluctant to go in without a spinner – if his time in India has taught him anything, it is the value of having a wicket taking spinner around. Part timers can do a decent enough holding job when required – but attacking spinners win tests. It is helluva refreshing from a Saffa perspective – Thank you India, thank you consequence (someone sang that – Alannis possibly..)
@stormerforlife1(stormerforlife1)-212: I don’t think any of us (age dependent of course) will see a pace attack like that in our lifetimes.
18 Jul 2012, 12:52 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-221: lol
18 Jul 2012, 12:55 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-224:
look, we fucked around with paul harris etc for years.
now that we have a decent spinner let’s give him every opporunity.
unless it’s a snake pit.
like I said, the injury of de lange will have made the decision easier.
18 Jul 2012, 12:56 pm
awe, test
18 Jul 2012, 13:00 pm
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-223: i agree and it concerns all refs, at least the ones we see on regular basis.
on the other hand, i imagine how farken hard is this job to follow 30 naughty and quick men usually obscured in the pile for 80+ minutes, while hundreds of thousands are watching and many of them always unhappy. i feel even for jonker.
18 Jul 2012, 13:01 pm
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-215:
I think the person who throws your ‘onderbroek’ in the washing machine deserves to be called by her name
It is already patronising to call her by her English name and not Ntombizodwa (her real name) ; that is if you prefer to have a Zulu speaking helper
18 Jul 2012, 13:02 pm
@Stawm(Stawm)-216:
Does your boss call you a ‘resource’ ?
I know we are human resources but that word just does not resonate with me
18 Jul 2012, 13:03 pm
@Sheriff(Sheriff)-203: I have a housekeeper – that is what is on all contracts, SARS records, UIF records and the like.
I call her by her 1st name, and she calls me by mine.
I am paying for her children’s tertiary education and I have given her the gift of study as well (Dressmaking courses and a Catering course – BOTH of which she uses to earn additional income in the home industry she has set up. She also employs four ladies full time, and they do their thing for HER, when she is working for me. Indirectly, these 4 ladies have also benefited from S’s studies)
So to sum it up once more:
My housekeeper ‘S’ get’s to study and do what she wants with the knowledge she gains….she chose to make extra money.
Butch at the SPCA is still getting all my cash handouts – because unlike ‘S’, Butch can’t go and study or learn a new skill to improve his lot in life – he is stuck in a cage, totally dependent on people like me.
18 Jul 2012, 13:04 pm
@capetown(capetown)-227: Your first time?
18 Jul 2012, 13:05 pm
Kiwis not happy.Sharkievarkies not happy.I guess that makes Mr.Kaplan very neutral.
18 Jul 2012, 13:05 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-226: You call Paul Harris a spinner? Ok…………
Get what you’re saying – let’s see what happens, but don’t leave anything to chance – keep praying re: Swann.
18 Jul 2012, 13:06 pm
@Nils(Nils)-228: boet maybe 2 refs is the answer
18 Jul 2012, 13:08 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-231:
I would quit whilst you are behind.
You will end up gnawing your arm off in frustration.
Sharif has no point.
At all.
18 Jul 2012, 13:09 pm
@sharks_lover(sharks_lover)-235: the question will remain – who to pair. bryce and marius to have mutual neutralizing effect?
18 Jul 2012, 13:11 pm
Check out this email i received this morning: (honestly)
Dear Sir / Madam,
The South African Springboks has made considerable progress and improvement, and we would have not been able to achieve this great heights without the help and support of our fans and supporters.
We have therefore decided to give back to our fans and supporters by introducing a:
GET 130% – 150% RETURN IN 5 DAYS INVESTMENT:
Example:
You deposit R1000 we return R1300.00
You deposit R5000 we return R7000.00
You deposit R10000 we return R15000.00
This opportunity will not last long, so you must act quickly.
Deposits are accepted until August 31.2012 00:00 (GMT).
One unit in this special program is worth 100 Rands.
The minimal deposit is 10 unit (R1000), no maximum limit.
The 130% – 150% payout will be paid back to your account in 5 days.
The payout is AUTOMATICALLY GUARANTEED and there is NO RISK from losing your funds.
To partake in this investment program. kindly download the attached form, fill in the required information and send it to the information below:
Mr. Felix Mkhize
Email: saruinvestment@yahoo.com
FAX: 086 768 4311
Thank you.
Attached is a very nice PDF form asking for all sorts of personal info including bank account details and such. It has the springbok logo on it and all.
Sheriff, Felix is waiting for your call.
Come on. You know you want too.
Something for nothing…..
Disclaimer: I’m not an idiot and I hope you aren’t one too. Don’t say I didn’t warn you…..
18 Jul 2012, 13:16 pm
@Nils(Nils)-237:
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-238: lol hiyas bro, there was a thing in the press and radio regarding this fool trying to make like he is working for SARU etc
18 Jul 2012, 13:16 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-238:
18 Jul 2012, 13:17 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-238: I have read about these con artists a while ago, strange that police have not tracked them yet.
18 Jul 2012, 13:17 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-231:
Good on ya! I don’t think anyone can find fault with that, not even Sheriff.
I do see where he’s coming from though. You must remember that the word “maid”, anglicised in afrikaans as “meid” means something totally different and not something nice as well.
18 Jul 2012, 13:18 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-231:
Every time I want to reply to you by saying ‘Sheila’ or ‘Nancy’ or “Helena’ or something but I’m left with this very long nick.
I take my hat off to you and I mean it sincerely. Thank you for what you are doing; there are many others who similar things and these are people who don’t do it to be applauded. They simply do it from the goodness of their hearts.
See there must be people like me as well who speak about these things on a rugby blog.
There are bloggers on here like Ranger and WPTID who are not only astute and seasoned bloggers but thinking people as well. WPTID for example offers up his private to fight crime in //Hui!Gaeb (CT) and is involved with a soup kitchen – these people are my heroes
Others need people like me to sensitise them to the real world and not as seen through the eyes of a young ambitious white man; it is to engage and not to offend
18 Jul 2012, 13:18 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-238: Hey you must be part of the select group , i didnt get one
18 Jul 2012, 13:18 pm
@Nils(Nils)-241: @stormersboy(stormersboy)-238:
The reason you still see things like this is because there are some who still fall for it.
Simple human greed sometimes trumps common sense, and these con artists feed on greed.
18 Jul 2012, 13:19 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-238:
sheez I’d like a piece of that.
was it offered to you personally or can I get in on a piece of that action?
18 Jul 2012, 13:19 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-238: Thanks a lot. You’ve just blown my scheme out the water.
18 Jul 2012, 13:19 pm
@Sheriff(Sheriff)-243:
Leave me out of this, I don’t need recognition!
18 Jul 2012, 13:19 pm
I am not saying that Tahir is not a good spinner but at the moment he is trying way too hard to impress.He doesn’t possess the one great thing a spinner should possess … and that is ‘patience’ .The great spinners like Warney would ,over for over,bowl the same ball ,and suddenly,with a slight adjustment ,bowl the unexpected delivery that gets their man.He needs to vary his pace of deliveries and just stop to try and bowl different balls in one over.
18 Jul 2012, 13:20 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-238: lol they also scam restuarants making like they are SARU officials
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 11 … 13 » Show All
Have your say
You must be logged in to post a comment.