Sharper side will take Brisbane spoils
18 Jul 2012
JON CARDINELLI analyses Saturday’s clash in the Queensland capital and writes that the winner may not be the side that makes the big plays, but rather the team that makes the fewest errors.
It may seem an obvious statement to make, but then the Reds and Sharks have been anything but consistent this season.
Both have scraped through to the play-offs despite some woeful performances where the inconsistencies have cost them the result. There have also be instances where these teams have mixed the accurate with the erratic, and have still managed to come out on top.
If this is to be accepted, then what insight can statistics provide? Indeed, both teams should be expected to play more conservatively in a knockout match than they have in recent rounds. Four-try bonus points are no longer a priority, and this could be reflected in either team’s approach.
But there is something to be gained by examining the stats of the Round 4 clash between these two teams. There is also value in the statistics when you look at how the referee for this match, Jonathan Kaplan, has officiated over the course of the 2012 season.
If we look at who is available for the coming match, and who was available for that Round 4 game in Durban, there are key differences but also many similarities. The Sharks will be without Pat Lambie this weekend, who played flyhalf in that previous game. The Reds are likely to play the same halfback pairing of Will Genia and Ben Lucas, as Quade Cooper is not available until a possible semi-final. The big omission for Queenslanders on this occasion will be that of lock James Horwill.
The Sharks won the Round 4 match 27-22 after trailing 17-10 at half-time. It was a game where the Sharks started badly, but found form as the match progressed. It was also a game where the Reds were hampered by a number of injuries throughout and were forced to finish with scrumhalf Genia in the flyhalf channel.
According to ruckingoodstats.com, both teams were guilty of many turnovers on that occasion, with the Reds (19) worse than the Sharks (14). The Reds made 10 handling errors on the day, and this obviously impacted on their ability to capitalise on a superior amount of possession (69% in the first half and 53% in the second). They may have also have edged the game but for some woeful goal-kicking where their kickers missed three attempts at posts.
Lambie was flawless in front of goal, converting all five attempts. But while the Sharks will miss Lambie’s influence in the side, it must be noted that he has since been shifted to fullback with Freddie Michalak coming in at No 10. And apart from lending the Sharks some impetus from that flyhalf position, Michalak has also maintained an impressive goal-kicking record (81%) over the course of the season.
If the Reds impede this Saturday, the Sharks will feel confident that Michalak can make the hosts pay on the scoreboard. Ruckingoodstats reveals that of the 15 teams that played Super Rugby this season, the Reds were ranked third for penalties conceded (they conceded 10.6 penalties per match on average). The Sharks are ranked seventh overall in this respect.
Breaking it down further, the Reds are the biggest culprits when in possession, conceding more penalties than any of the other 14 teams. And looking at the rucks and mauls, the Reds are ranked second for the most penalties conceded.
Scrums aren’t much better, with the Reds conceding the third most penalties. The Sharks will have noted this weakness, and as they boast one of the strongest and most disciplined scrums, they will surely look to target the Reds in this area.
At the other set piece, however, it is the Reds that are more threatening. They are ranked second in the competition for winning the lineout against the throw. Considering their weakness at the scrum, they should look to disrupt the Sharks at the lineout.
While the Reds have conceded a number of penalties while in possession, and a fair few at the breakdown, they are proficient in making breakdown steals (3.9 per match). They have some specialists in Liam Gill and Beau Robinson, as well as hooker Saia Faingaa, who excel in this respect.
It will also help that Kaplan is officiating this fixture, as the South African is one of the more lenient referees at the ruck and maul (Kaplan is ranked 15th out of 19 Super Rugby referees in terms of penalties awarded in these areas). This may allow the Reds to maintain possession a bit more than usual, and also have more of a crack at the breakdown turnover when they’re defending.
But where Kaplan is far less generous is at the scrum, and as the superior team in this area, the Sharks should benefit. Kaplan is ranked fifth when it comes to infringements awarded at this set piece.
He also tends to award more penalties than free kicks and there are only four refs in the competition who offer fewer scrum resets than Kaplan. In short, if the Reds impede or fail to set properly, Kaplan is unlikely to give them another crack. The Sharks have conceded the fewest scrum infringements in the tournament.
Suncorp Stadium is often described as the perfect ground on which to play running rugby, and it’s true that both sides have a penchant for a fast-paced approach. But the occasion may demand a tighter, less risky game plan, and the margin for error will be small.
The Reds may not have Cooper available for this play-off, but they do have a reliable goal-kicker in Mike Harris (who has a 77% success rate). It is for this reason the Sharks will also need to ensure they don’t impede within range of the goal posts.
Their big banker will be Michalak, who will be tasked with turning Reds infringements and errors into points.
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629 Comments
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18 Jul 2012, 13:21 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-238:
Are you Mr Felix Mkhize?
I will be contacting you shortly then…
18 Jul 2012, 13:21 pm
@WP Till I Die(WP-Forever)-240: MAybe this okes employed at Investec
18 Jul 2012, 13:21 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-238:
Wow! What a great deal – BBBEE entrepscameleur… They all have such lovely call names…
18 Jul 2012, 13:21 pm
@TooMuchRugby(TooMuchRugby)-242: Very true.
18 Jul 2012, 13:22 pm
Oh Welcome CapeTown!!!
18 Jul 2012, 13:22 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-247:
18 Jul 2012, 13:24 pm
Too think some people fall for that….its sad really.
18 Jul 2012, 13:24 pm
This is just typical of a lazy sod who is taking the easy road to earn his keep, working is not his thing
18 Jul 2012, 13:25 pm
As they say:
Crime doesn’t pay, BUT the hours are good…
18 Jul 2012, 13:27 pm
@Sheriff(Sheriff)-243: I didn’t post that for any glory or thanks. I just wanted to show you that my philosophy RE: ‘economic freedom’ also has a valid and legitimate place amongst the various other philosophies that encourage mass redistribution of wealth.
Education, time and skill above throwing $$$$ wins in my book every time
(Butch at the SPCA still gets the $$$$$$$$$$$$ though)
18 Jul 2012, 13:33 pm
@stormerforlife1(stormerforlife1)-249: Warne was another freak of sporting nature.
I still laugh if I think back to some of Darryl Cullinans’ dismissals at the ‘hands and ball of Warne’.
Darryl KNEW what was coming back in the day, he KNEW it – in fact he could have counted down the deliveries to his dismissal delivery to a ’5th ball of the 45th over’ but he would still be ‘flippered’ like a toddler.
Then came that blank look…….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DlyG5wnW7I0
18 Jul 2012, 13:33 pm
@Sheriff(Sheriff)-211:
Imo, its cultural differences – neither being right nor wrong, just different
“White” culture is very much focussed around the “3M’s” – Me, My & Material. Can be seen in simply everyday life:
* Narrower family units and approaches to the family unit e.g. smaller family units itself, elderly sent to old aged homes so children can continue with “their” lives, etc
* Greater focus on individual rights and priveleges
* Cultural celebrations e.g. weddings are smaller affairs with the hosts carrying all the costs and invitees strictly controlled
* Lesser spiritual focus with greater material focus
In contrast some other communities within South Africa take a more communal and dare i say even spiritual approach to life:
* Larger family units with strong focus on responsibilty towards looking after parents (eldery homes are taboo)
* Greater focus on group / community achievements – broad network amongst the community
* Larger communal celebrations – e.g weddings are large, the community all contributes,invites are pretty much open
* Greater spiritual focus
So when approaching the less priveledged, the former (“white”), based on their culturual views would see the notion of sharing with the lesser priviledged as being a handout, entitlement, etc. Some understandings are difficult to comprehend:
* Vast difference between working hard from a solid home and relatively educated parents vs working hard from a rusty shack and uneducated parents
* Having to share a portion of one’s material wealth as to serve a broader purpose or ideal
Conversely, the latter cultural groups, see’s greater importance in sharing of one’s material wealth in the name of broad upliftment. Its core part of their and their communities ethic. So would not view your views as being handout, entitlement, etc
Neither is wrong me friend, just different
18 Jul 2012, 13:37 pm
I have respect for people like Pedigree that do their bit in the empowerment of the poor through their generosity.I call that social responsibility.They probably also go on holidays or weekends to places like Arniston etc etc,but unlike certain people on keo they don’t boast about it.We need more people who wants to correct social injustices and less of the ones that believe in their own self-worth,status and belonging to exclusive clubs like the over 180thousand club.
18 Jul 2012, 13:39 pm
@stormerforlife1(stormerforlife1)-263: Tell us more about your EU passport and your Eurotravel?
18 Jul 2012, 13:50 pm
On the Day of Mandela’s birthday we need to take time out of our busy schedules…for some …and not so busy for others…and really have a good look at our inner self and question our contribution to make this country a better place.
18 Jul 2012, 13:56 pm
speaking of refs… from news24
Ex Boks complete IRB course
Cape Town – Eight former Springboks, all of them part of the South African Rugby Legends Association (SARLA) successfully completed the BokSmart Rugby Safety course and attended an IRB Level 2 Coaching workshop in Cape Town this week.
New SARLA CEO Stefan Terblanche, Dale Santon, Pieter Muller, Adrian Jacobs, Quinton Davids, McNeil Hendricks, Wayne Julies and Norman Jordaan were among a large group of former professional rugby players that completed the South African Rugby Union’s (SARU) rugby safety programme on Tuesday.
According to Dr Wayne Viljoen, BokSmart Manager at SARU, these former players have a significant role to play in their communities to ensure the game becomes safer.
“People look up to Springbok rugby players and they are the ones that set examples in their communities, which is why we’re very happy that they have taken time out from their busy schedules to complete the BokSmart course,” said Viljoen.
“Through their involvement with SARLA, they also play a very important development role in South African rugby, which is where we would like to see them implement what they’ve learned at the course.
“Rugby safety is something that affects all of us from the young kids playing barefoot up to Springbok level and it’s very important that the right techniques and actions are learnt from a young age.”
A total of 22 former Springboks and provincial players attended the IRB Level 2 RPL (Recognition for Prior Learning) workshop at DHL Newlands on Wednesday.
The workshop is a joint venture between SARU’s Coaching Development Department and SARLA to start a process to accredit former national and provincial players who want to pursue a career in coaching. This will be the first in a series of RPL workshops to accredit former players and experienced coaches.
According to Terblanche, who recently retired from the game after playing in 37 Tests for South Africa and more than 400 First Class matches for Boland, the Sharks, Ulster and Ulster, ploughing back into rugby is vitally important to grow the game.
“BokSmart is something anyone involved in rugby – be it as a top level player, coach, referee or a serious supporter – should get behind,” said Terblanche.
“As former Springboks, we take rugby safety very seriously, and therefore have all taken the time to get ourselves BokSmart certified accordingly. There should be no excuses for anyone involved in rugby or coaching at any level not to complete the BokSmart course. Rugby has given most of us so much over many years and it’s time we gave back to the game we all love so much.”
Former provincial players that joined the eight ex-Boks on both courses include Andries Human, Clarke Roberts, David Hendricks, Faiek Hendricks, Fareed Theunissen, Trevor Arendse and Eugene Maqwelana.
Well done to these guys…!
18 Jul 2012, 13:57 pm
@Sheriff(Sheriff)-251:
So guys you think it was a bad idea that I filled in the form and emailed it to him then??
18 Jul 2012, 14:03 pm
@WP Till I Die(WP-Forever)-245:
I see you offered up your private to fight crime??
18 Jul 2012, 14:04 pm
speaking of Madiba’s birthday…
i just hope on saturday when the sharks and bulls say they’re ‘doing it for Madiba…’
that they don’t think they must just play for 67 minutes…!!
18 Jul 2012, 14:05 pm
So anyone who wants in on the action just drop me a mail at theresoneborneveryminute@gmail.com and I’ll hook you up mmmmkay??
18 Jul 2012, 14:09 pm
I don’t know what you trying to get at Pussycat,but I am not biting.
. You can go and humor Skoppie for all I care.I had a civilized chat with Victoriabok ,so let us rather leave it at that.Unlike you,you are of no interest to me.
18 Jul 2012, 14:11 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-270:
You’ve got mail.
I’ve cashed in my provident fund, this is too good an opportunity to pass up!
18 Jul 2012, 14:13 pm
@WP Till I Die(WP-Forever)-272:
I’m telling you bru, we’re gonna be riiiiiiiiiiiiich!!!!!
18 Jul 2012, 14:13 pm
Capo with his Parisian weekends.
The poodle capital of the world.
I think it’s time to sell my flat there if he’s going to be making a regular thing of it.
Bound to affect property prices.
18 Jul 2012, 14:15 pm
hi guys what time is the sharks reds game on sat?
18 Jul 2012, 14:16 pm
@capetown(capetown)-262:
First time posters are only allowed two lines
18 Jul 2012, 14:17 pm
Wptid is offering up his privates to fight crime?
That won’t end well.
18 Jul 2012, 14:18 pm
@rangerman(rangerman)-275:
11:40
18 Jul 2012, 14:19 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-277:
According to Sheriff, that’s what he does!
18 Jul 2012, 14:20 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-260:
Well then Butch is a lucky fish
18 Jul 2012, 14:20 pm
@capetown(capetown)-262:
And no socio-philosophical-political-marxist discourses.
You earn that right after 2500 posts.
18 Jul 2012, 14:20 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-277:
Umkhonto we Sizwe.
18 Jul 2012, 14:21 pm
Sharif spends too much time in Woolies.
It is affecting his tenuous grip on reality.
18 Jul 2012, 14:22 pm
@stormerforlife1(stormerforlife1)-271: Get lost, capo. Your sanctimonious rant about “certain bloggers” boasting about their holidays flies in the face of your very own boasts here about your French trip.
18 Jul 2012, 14:23 pm
Heading home time Ranger.
18 Jul 2012, 14:23 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-283:
Indeed
Those burgers didn’t get there without the help of the lumpen proletariat.
Neither did those pizza ingredients.
18 Jul 2012, 14:25 pm
@ufo(ufo)-278: thanks bud
18 Jul 2012, 14:28 pm
@stormerforlife1(stormerforlife1)-271:
Lets sort one thing out
When are you leaving
18 Jul 2012, 14:29 pm
update on the St Francis Bay U.F.O.s (unidentified found objects = previously thought to be whales)
NSRI: 4 of 5 containers found washed ashore.
Wednesday, 18th July, MRCC (Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre) confirmed that in total five containers, one of which was found washed ashore near to the Gamtoos River Mouth yesterday, were washed off the deck of the Chinese Ship Anguan Gjing, sailing from Durban to Nigeria, over the past weekend in heavy sea storms, between Port Elizabeth and St Francis Bay.
The containers were reportedly lost overboard the ship over a period of a few days over this past weekends heavy sea swells.
Maritime navigational safety warnings were broadcast by Maritime Radio Services warning of the navigational hazard to shipping in that vicinity.
Today, Wednesday, 18th July, Police located a further three containers, two washed up in the same vicinity as the one from yesterday and one has washed up near to St Francis Bay.
The outstanding one container is either still adrift at sea or it may have washed ashore on a remote location and may not have been discovered yet.
MRCC has confirmed that all 5 containers are empty and present no environmental or health risk (it may be suspected that normal sea water could have now leaked into the containers).
No decisions have been taken yet by Maritime authorities on the salvage of the containers which are in remote areas on barely accessible stretches of coastline.
18 Jul 2012, 14:29 pm
@WP Till I Die(WP-Forever)-245: greed, gullibility or just plain ignorance…take the young lady who called on metrofm yesterday
she started a catering business and got her cv/company profile all around, these so-called “businessmen” called her up wanting to use her services for a function, she gave them a quote according to their brief, they deposited more money than she’d quoted (cheque), she realises this and looks to rectify it and transfers the excess and gets ‘tooken’ as the cheque bounces…just basics of banking that are lacking and now she’s taken 3 steps back…
18 Jul 2012, 14:30 pm
@rangerman(rangerman)-287:
sure thing ranger…
keep a sharp eye out for those sneaky 6x2m containers…!!
18 Jul 2012, 14:30 pm
@WP Till I Die(WP-Forever)-282:
I never called you a konto.
18 Jul 2012, 14:32 pm
@Dawn(Dawn)-286:
What concerns me is the burgers.
You can take the man out of the roadhouse…
18 Jul 2012, 14:34 pm
@capetown(capetown)-262:
It is much more exciting to take a particular point of view and then substantiate your opinion.
If we follow this line of thinking everything is relative ie there’s no right or wrong; for example to commit a crime or not is all ok, it really depends on the person’s preference
It sounds balanced but in reality its not
18 Jul 2012, 14:36 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-293: Ah yes, Sharif McHendriks. Or Big Mac, to his penpals.
18 Jul 2012, 14:43 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-295:
The Sultan of Halaal.
18 Jul 2012, 14:45 pm
@Dawn(Dawn)-281:
Go back a looong time Dawn
To the days of Poephol Piet, Groot Blou Smiley (with those irratating he, he, he’s) and that mother of all battles that led to Sheriff’s awakening
18 Jul 2012, 14:46 pm
@Sheriff(Sheriff)-294: are any of your laaities into rugby? i kept watching the blue bulls grant khomo team thinking i’ll see lawman’s tyke running in blue….
18 Jul 2012, 14:48 pm
It’s a pity I have matters to attend to here
I would have loved to make these gangsters ‘swak’, albeit virtually
18 Jul 2012, 14:49 pm
@capetown(capetown)-297: hehehe “sheriff’s awakening” from being a house n……..?
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