Sharper side will take Brisbane spoils
18 Jul 2012
JON CARDINELLI analyses Saturday’s clash in the Queensland capital and writes that the winner may not be the side that makes the big plays, but rather the team that makes the fewest errors.
It may seem an obvious statement to make, but then the Reds and Sharks have been anything but consistent this season.
Both have scraped through to the play-offs despite some woeful performances where the inconsistencies have cost them the result. There have also be instances where these teams have mixed the accurate with the erratic, and have still managed to come out on top.
If this is to be accepted, then what insight can statistics provide? Indeed, both teams should be expected to play more conservatively in a knockout match than they have in recent rounds. Four-try bonus points are no longer a priority, and this could be reflected in either team’s approach.
But there is something to be gained by examining the stats of the Round 4 clash between these two teams. There is also value in the statistics when you look at how the referee for this match, Jonathan Kaplan, has officiated over the course of the 2012 season.
If we look at who is available for the coming match, and who was available for that Round 4 game in Durban, there are key differences but also many similarities. The Sharks will be without Pat Lambie this weekend, who played flyhalf in that previous game. The Reds are likely to play the same halfback pairing of Will Genia and Ben Lucas, as Quade Cooper is not available until a possible semi-final. The big omission for Queenslanders on this occasion will be that of lock James Horwill.
The Sharks won the Round 4 match 27-22 after trailing 17-10 at half-time. It was a game where the Sharks started badly, but found form as the match progressed. It was also a game where the Reds were hampered by a number of injuries throughout and were forced to finish with scrumhalf Genia in the flyhalf channel.
According to ruckingoodstats.com, both teams were guilty of many turnovers on that occasion, with the Reds (19) worse than the Sharks (14). The Reds made 10 handling errors on the day, and this obviously impacted on their ability to capitalise on a superior amount of possession (69% in the first half and 53% in the second). They may have also have edged the game but for some woeful goal-kicking where their kickers missed three attempts at posts.
Lambie was flawless in front of goal, converting all five attempts. But while the Sharks will miss Lambie’s influence in the side, it must be noted that he has since been shifted to fullback with Freddie Michalak coming in at No 10. And apart from lending the Sharks some impetus from that flyhalf position, Michalak has also maintained an impressive goal-kicking record (81%) over the course of the season.
If the Reds impede this Saturday, the Sharks will feel confident that Michalak can make the hosts pay on the scoreboard. Ruckingoodstats reveals that of the 15 teams that played Super Rugby this season, the Reds were ranked third for penalties conceded (they conceded 10.6 penalties per match on average). The Sharks are ranked seventh overall in this respect.
Breaking it down further, the Reds are the biggest culprits when in possession, conceding more penalties than any of the other 14 teams. And looking at the rucks and mauls, the Reds are ranked second for the most penalties conceded.
Scrums aren’t much better, with the Reds conceding the third most penalties. The Sharks will have noted this weakness, and as they boast one of the strongest and most disciplined scrums, they will surely look to target the Reds in this area.
At the other set piece, however, it is the Reds that are more threatening. They are ranked second in the competition for winning the lineout against the throw. Considering their weakness at the scrum, they should look to disrupt the Sharks at the lineout.
While the Reds have conceded a number of penalties while in possession, and a fair few at the breakdown, they are proficient in making breakdown steals (3.9 per match). They have some specialists in Liam Gill and Beau Robinson, as well as hooker Saia Faingaa, who excel in this respect.
It will also help that Kaplan is officiating this fixture, as the South African is one of the more lenient referees at the ruck and maul (Kaplan is ranked 15th out of 19 Super Rugby referees in terms of penalties awarded in these areas). This may allow the Reds to maintain possession a bit more than usual, and also have more of a crack at the breakdown turnover when they’re defending.
But where Kaplan is far less generous is at the scrum, and as the superior team in this area, the Sharks should benefit. Kaplan is ranked fifth when it comes to infringements awarded at this set piece.
He also tends to award more penalties than free kicks and there are only four refs in the competition who offer fewer scrum resets than Kaplan. In short, if the Reds impede or fail to set properly, Kaplan is unlikely to give them another crack. The Sharks have conceded the fewest scrum infringements in the tournament.
Suncorp Stadium is often described as the perfect ground on which to play running rugby, and it’s true that both sides have a penchant for a fast-paced approach. But the occasion may demand a tighter, less risky game plan, and the margin for error will be small.
The Reds may not have Cooper available for this play-off, but they do have a reliable goal-kicker in Mike Harris (who has a 77% success rate). It is for this reason the Sharks will also need to ensure they don’t impede within range of the goal posts.
Their big banker will be Michalak, who will be tasked with turning Reds infringements and errors into points.
Follow JC on Twitter
Follow SA Rugby magazine on Twitter
Follow ruckingoodstats on Twitter
629 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9 10 11 12 … 13 » Show All
18 Jul 2012, 14:53 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-298:
Mate, not at all.
They watch it a bit with me, but all of them are 100% into soccer. But you’re not far out, eldest was selected for Northerns u/13 squad and has good potential but we will see… (if you dont mind me saying so
It’s actually a pity because I think he would have been a good 10 or 12
I had to catch up fast – the wake up call was when my then 4 yr old pointed out that Steven Gerard (sp?) was a soccer player and I was unaware of that at the time
18 Jul 2012, 14:53 pm
Ahhh Pietman.
Sharif’s Obi Wan Kenobi.
Teach me master for I have much to learn.
18 Jul 2012, 14:55 pm
@Sheriff(Sheriff)-294:
Its not wrong to have a self focussed life view based on Me, My and Material. these are the cultural differences of the world which makes us human.
Its for you to choose how you live your life and with whom you share energies
Both ways, each view comes with its own set of “pro’s” and “cons” which one must be willing to make peace with
18 Jul 2012, 14:56 pm
would never bet against the reds on home soil.
Genia running around the big Natal forwards will be the danger for the banana boys
18 Jul 2012, 14:57 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-300:
lets not go there
GBS and Piettie were very hurt by Sheriffs emancipation
18 Jul 2012, 15:02 pm
@capetown(capetown)-305: i’m quite aware of the “hurt”, GBS even said he would show me the barrel of his gun if we were to ever meet…
18 Jul 2012, 15:07 pm
Anyone read Sheriffs writings on voelmyhoring.com?
18 Jul 2012, 15:09 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-306:
Sometimes think Dusky is Piettie’s son. Recall Pittie mentioning he had a son in Scandanavian regions and Dusky’s opinions also sound like he could be piettie’s son. That same sh*t of back in the day greatness, the country is now burning, whites must run for the hills, etc
18 Jul 2012, 15:11 pm
@capetown(capetown)-308: Dusky challenged me to a tattoo duel. Ink at dawn type of thing.
18 Jul 2012, 15:12 pm
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-307: No ways. Can’t be the same guy
Voelmyhoring publishes X-kreni’s excrement…….
18 Jul 2012, 15:13 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-309: dusky challenges everyone, mostly to fist fights in shopping mall parking lots!
he says he does MMA.
18 Jul 2012, 15:14 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-310:
Go read on Page 2! Good larf… I go there for my monthly entertainment and larf…
I con you not!!!
18 Jul 2012, 15:17 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-310:
You’d be surprised what goes on here!
18 Jul 2012, 15:18 pm
The Reds are considering launching an 11th-hour appeal against Quade Cooper’s one-match suspension in a desperate bid to have the playmaker available for Saturday’s Super Rugby qualifier against the Sharks.
Cooper was rubbed out for a week on Monday after judicial officer Paul Tully found him guilty of a high tackle on Waratahs star Berrick Barnes following a marathon hearing.
The Reds have been talking up their ability to win without their enigmatic playmaker ever since the decision was handed down, indicating they would not appeal the decision.
However, a statement released on Wednesday confirmed the Queensland Rugby Union are ‘seriously considering’ fighting the ruling.
“We are obviously particularly sensitive to not disrupting the Reds team dynamics and preparation in launching an appeal at this late stage, however by not receiving the formal judgement until 8pm Tuesday after the decision was handed down on Monday evening, time is getting away from us in what was already a short preparation,” QRU Chairman Rod McCall said.
“Under the current SANZAR protocols if we were to launch an appeal we would lose at least a further day of preparation with (coach) Ewen (McKenzie) and Quade who would both be required to fly to Sydney for another hearing.
“However we are cognisant of the need to support our player if we feel he has been treated harshly and in our opinion we still strongly believe the tackle did not warrant suspension.
“After taking the advice of legal representatives, the QRU first intends to discuss the matter further with SANZAR before making a decision whether to launch an appeal within the allowed 48-hour period.”
Cooper is risking a three-week ban if he appeals and loses.
18 Jul 2012, 15:19 pm
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-312: Will check out the Sheriffs contribution now. I have read some of X-kreni’s kak on there, and it is beaten ONLY by some of the kak that is written here
@Transformation(Transformation)-311: Hahahahaha, I guessed as much. The way he was almost begging me to question him about his physique etc etc.
18 Jul 2012, 15:19 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-311:
Dusky weighs 48kg
No problem
18 Jul 2012, 15:21 pm
@capetown(capetown)-308:
So you are from back in the day.
Carry on
18 Jul 2012, 15:21 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.(The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food)-315:
Read in instalments though! A good larf…
18 Jul 2012, 15:22 pm
@Dawn(Dawn)-317:
I’m also trying to figure out who it is! Loosehead???
18 Jul 2012, 15:24 pm
@grant10(grant100)-15:
In madibas book he talks aboit being forced into military action since the minority government would not listen. How do we sleep when our beds are burning…..sure anc hurt people but the government at the time were hurting the masses.
18 Jul 2012, 15:24 pm
@Dawn(Dawn)-313:
After reading all about Fern’s ‘alleged’ sexcapades – nothing surprises me (giggling smiley – dunno how to put one up)
18 Jul 2012, 15:26 pm
why not simply come back using your old nic…?
18 Jul 2012, 15:27 pm
I read about this voelmyhoring stuff on here a few days ago and thought you guys are just messing around.Obviously I was wrong.
18 Jul 2012, 15:27 pm
@ufo(ufo)-322:
These multinics!!!
18 Jul 2012, 15:30 pm
@stormerforlife1(stormerforlife1)-323:
Pink can do funny things!!!
18 Jul 2012, 15:30 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-311:
the problem with that approach to life is that somewhere along the line you run into ‘the other guy’ who challenges everyone to fistfights in shopping mall parking lots…
who also say he does mma…
and then it gets interesting
there’s always a guy who’ll fark you up, just like there’s always a guy who you’ll fark up
its one of those strange laws of physics
like every action having an equal and opposite reaction
but i suppose if you want to prove yourself as a backyard breker then you have to take your chances
if you want to be the best you have to beat the best
18 Jul 2012, 15:33 pm
@galileo, roundness, union, coach…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-326: he may know MMA but I know Glock.
18 Jul 2012, 15:33 pm
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-324:
yeah… i just don’t get it… not knocking people who do it… i simply don’t understand it…
been using ufo (not spelt out) since the mid-90s when CNN world sport had blogs up for soccer and rugby and other sports…
used it on here since keo started too…
why keep changing…?
each to their own i guess…
18 Jul 2012, 15:36 pm
@ufo(ufo)-328: Ja I’ve never felt the need to change my nic either. But then I’ve never had to feel embarrassed by something I’ve posted (like you).
18 Jul 2012, 15:36 pm
@ufo(ufo)-328:
I suppose people get yellow carded and come back as someone else…
18 Jul 2012, 15:37 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-327:
hehe
well that would settle the argument
18 Jul 2012, 15:37 pm
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-330: Skop and Capo.
Masters of re-invention.
18 Jul 2012, 15:39 pm
@ufo(ufo)-328:
always think you know better, hey…
18 Jul 2012, 15:40 pm
@and the 2012 super rugby champions are…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-333:
18 Jul 2012, 15:42 pm
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-334:
#guesswho’ssupportersarethemostwindgat
18 Jul 2012, 15:43 pm
@Dawn(Dawn)-316: Guns on the other hand, what does he way?
18 Jul 2012, 15:43 pm
Funny old place Keo, a discusion about maids, we have not had those in England since WWII.
18 Jul 2012, 15:43 pm
@and the 2012 super rugby champions are…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-335: Sharks??
I’m going with Sharks.
18 Jul 2012, 15:44 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-336:
Guns weighs more than Vin Diesel and it’s all muscle
18 Jul 2012, 15:44 pm
Indeed.
Stormerforawife has had more nicks than Mshlozi has bambinos.
Fuckadilly gets an honorable mention.
18 Jul 2012, 15:44 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-329:
you’re way more rational than me bud…
there have been things i’ve regretted saying… but have apologized taken the hits and got on with it…
i enjoy the history of nics you get to know… always feel a little miffed when it’s obvious you’ve chatted to someone before and they either pretend you haven’t or won’t tell you… just a lot let confusing for the ‘slow’ ones like me…
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-330:
yeah… but skop is perhaps the most banned guy here… but he never pretends to be someone else… so for all our differences i admire him for sticking to his nokias…
anyway guess it keeps it interesting…
18 Jul 2012, 15:44 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-338:
18 Jul 2012, 15:45 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-340:
he does indeed…
18 Jul 2012, 15:45 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-336: No way!
How much??
18 Jul 2012, 15:45 pm
@carol(carol)-337: Carol,
Thank you for your email and your recommendations.
I shall endeavour to tick off every location on that list!!
18 Jul 2012, 15:46 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-338:
#ihavenodoubtyouarerightsmiley#
18 Jul 2012, 15:46 pm
Why come back as capetown of all bloody things
18 Jul 2012, 15:47 pm
@galileo, roundness, union, coach…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-326: lmao @ “backyard breker” :mrgreen” Dusky says he is unfuckwithable.
18 Jul 2012, 15:48 pm
@ufo(ufo)-341: Skop is instantly recognizable.
Capo on the other hand stay undercover for at least a few days until he shows his true colors. But show them he always does.
As for the rest, I try and take it post by post.
Regardless of who they are.
18 Jul 2012, 15:48 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-344: tl tl tl i’ll i’ll ask dawn on our weigh to Fireman’s
Pages: « 1 … 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9 10 11 12 … 13 » Show All
Have your say
You must be logged in to post a comment.